Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
Trading Institutional Order Flow
- #5,905
- Mar 13, 2018 12:26am Mar 13, 2018 12:26am
UDSJPY weekly momentum down daily momentum down h4 supply nested in daily {image}
and Blasterh22,
When i was looking for the profit target for this trade, i saw that price will have a really rough time getting through the demand level at 106.276, plus some bullish momentum could be established on the 4h so i decided to buy it back up. Not to brag, well maybe a little
, but having a more flexible set of rules allowed me to take the second trade. I don't have a specific setup per se, but i have a set of restrictions of what not to do such as don't buy into supply and vice versa, only take trade with at least 1R, only hit high quality levels, etc etc. This allowed me to use some gut feel to a small extent that meant i could use my experience as part of my edge.
{quote} An update on this trade. and Blasterh22, When i was looking for the profit target for this trade, i saw that price will have a really rough time getting through the demand level at 106.276, plus some bullish momentum could be established on the 4h so i decided to buy it back up. Not to brag, well maybe a little
I got out of the trade also, because it wasn't aligned with my simple price action analysis.
- #5,908
- Mar 13, 2018 8:22am Mar 13, 2018 8:22am
{quote} Hey Eushev, It will be great if you can illustrate all that through a live trade that you take. Agreed that the momentum line needs to get updated. However, if we go by the basic definition of downtrend which is supply is created while demands get taken out, this trade serves fine. It is in the direction of the HTZ trends. Also, Price has returned back to the W1 SZ and has taken out a DZ. Does that not qualify that as a SZ ? Rest we will see as this trade is now LIVE.
Hello Foxtrader16, I cannot illustrate this because i did not take that trade. I will try to explain my thought process , i could be wrong of course, i will wait for your comments to learn and help each other .
1st WK trend is definitely down no doubt about it.
2nd Bigger TF than your 4hr /entry tf/ took control-daily dz bellow. Now you have Daily demand vs 4hr sz, which one is more likely to win?TL on daily is broken too - and that means that we are out of alignment and daily trend is not down, but consolidating.
4hr is in up trend too. Now you have 2 TF out of alignment from the bigger picture trend / h4 up and daily consolidation/. We are allowed to look for short at HTF WK SZ where price is more likely to align with the down trend. I did not find one. You can consider the WK SZ that you draw as valid and you might be right it is hard for me say. Another question that i asked myself is which SZ is with higher odds- one with consolidation or one without consolidation? If i want to have maximum chances for successes i will count on SZ with consolidation away.
After all trade could pay well. I hope that the picture bellow will help you to "see" my thoughts which of course can be wrong, but thats why i not entered on this trade.
You attract what you think in any area of life, relationships and trading!
- #5,911
- Mar 13, 2018 10:19am Mar 13, 2018 10:19am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 8,751 Posts
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- #5,912
- Mar 13, 2018 10:53am Mar 13, 2018 10:53am
{quote} Thanks Eushev for the detailed analysis. I do agree with your analysis. However I think you missed out on a lower SZ on W1. I go with M W D sequence since I am more of a position trader. I think that gives my trades room to breathe and not get stopped out at the slightest spike in price. While my wait time to get into a trade is high, I do seem to get more of hits than misses. What I am now trying to achieve is to stay in a trade till my objective is met rather than get off the saddle as soon as I have achieved a 20 - 30 pip gain which is...
You attract what you think in any area of life, relationships and trading!
- #5,913
- Mar 13, 2018 11:08am Mar 13, 2018 11:08am
- | Joined Feb 2016 | Status: Be brave, be courageous, be prudent | 492 Posts
{quote} Dear Foxtrader16 i did not draw WK SZ because i was not sure about it. If did not feel confident. Now after your comments I think i can draw it like this {image}
I look forward to seeing more of your analysis.
Live life king size !
- #5,914
- Mar 13, 2018 11:55am Mar 13, 2018 11:55am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2016 | 2,682 Posts
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
hello
ok, just to clarify:
lets say the sequence is D-4hr-1hr.
the process would be price at Daily demand then go stright to entry time frame the 1hr to look for momentum shift to go long? is that correct?
what if price is not at the Daily demand ? I just need to be patient until price reaches that zone right?
I´m kind of struggling at the moment :-(.
my Idea on USDJPY D-4hr-1hr.
Daily
1hr
ok, just to clarify:
lets say the sequence is D-4hr-1hr.
the process would be price at Daily demand then go stright to entry time frame the 1hr to look for momentum shift to go long? is that correct?
what if price is not at the Daily demand ? I just need to be patient until price reaches that zone right?
I´m kind of struggling at the moment :-(.
my Idea on USDJPY D-4hr-1hr.
Daily
1hr
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
{quote} Hi, I got some questions for you: where is daily demand, where is daily supply, what zones are created, what zones are taken out, from what zones prices is reacting, what is the most logical thing to do? PS that daily demand zone isn't valid, I wouldn't even consider it a zone.
Weekly
Daily momentum down
4hr there is a demand zone (Blue)
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
- #5,918
- Mar 15, 2018 10:32am Mar 15, 2018 10:32am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2016 | 2,682 Posts
hello ok, just to clarify: lets say the sequence is D-4hr-1hr. the process would be price at Daily demand then go stright to entry time frame the 1hr to look for momentum shift to go long? is that correct? what if price is not at the Daily demand ? I just need to be patient until price reaches that zone right? I´m kind of struggling at the moment :-(. my Idea on USDJPY D-4hr-1hr. Daily {image} 1hr {image}
Thank you for sharing your thoughts on the USDJPY.
If i may,
your thought process is correct but as you know and we talk about often, the big picture here is now in a ranging environment given that demand has shown up on the daily chart, otherwise the momentum would have continued downwards.
Now, with price still in a range, the process would remain to start looking for buying opportunities at demand which may or may not present themselves. If there are embedded zones within the level with good enough quality and probability scores, then one may use that, otherwise, a more conservative strategy would be to wait to see if new demand develop so one can buy at those ones
What would be a challenge from a methodology stand point would be to be selling given where price is at present.
Best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
{quote} Hello T4i Thank you for sharing your thoughts on the USDJPY. If i may, your thought process is correct but as you know and we talk about often, the big picture here is now in a ranging environment given that demand has shown up on the daily chart, otherwise the momentum would have continued downwards. Now, with price still in a range, the process would remain to start looking for buying opportunities at demand which may or may not present themselves. If there are embedded zones within the level with good enough quality and probability scores,...
Hey Michael,
Thanks for your reply.
argh.. of course, Daily is in a range and not down
. so on the 1hr would look like this
price is right now at a 4hr supply zone
"Fall in love with the process and the results will follow" - Bradley Whitf
