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Contest strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 14, 2018 5:34am Mar 14, 2018 5:34am
Hello ...
i am looking for strategy or trading system suitable for forex contest ....any advises pls?
  • #2
  • Mar 14, 2018 11:17am Mar 14, 2018 11:17am
Quoting Waddah
Hello ... i am looking for strategy or trading system suitable for forex contest ....any advises pls?
Yes, buy low sell high.

Developed by merlin:
Sell tomorrow high and buy tomorrow low.

Finally the holy grail.
Risiko birgt immer auch die Chance.
  • #3
  • Mar 14, 2018 11:55am Mar 14, 2018 11:55am
It depends on the rules of the contest youre participating in.
Im assuming its those typical FX contest that spans about 1 month. With no rules against martingales and minimum of 5 trades a week.

You could create a simple intraday strategy with tight Take Profits and the Stop loss 3-10 times wider. You can use any indicator as a signal but i would suggest trading near market opens/close/news events to take advantage of the volatility.

This should put your Win rate at about 60 -70ish percent. Adjust your leverage accordingly. You can risk anywhere from 5 - 50% of your capital each trade.
Trade bigger or martingale after every loss. With a higher win rate, the probability of hitting a long streak of losing trades are quite low.

The concept here is that since the contest only spans a month long or so, it is all up to luck not to blow your account martingaling or doubling down. The probability are quite slim to blow up in a months time.

Nearing the end of the contest, if youre not within the top few in contention for prize money, go all in on a single trade. The idea here is either you win big and get a position with a prize, or you blow up and win nothing anyway.

Obvious contest trading strategies should not be used in real trading. These strategies are optimized specifically to win trading competitions. Over a longer period of time, such strategies are guranteed to blow up. Its not surprising to see winners raking in about 400+% gains by the end of the competition. Just know that such performance are not substainable in the long run.
Hope that helps!
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #4
  • Mar 14, 2018 1:51pm Mar 14, 2018 1:51pm
Quoting synicz
It depends on the rules of the contest youre participating in. Im assuming its those typical FX contest that spans about 1 month. With no rules against martingales and minimum of 5 trades a week. You could create a simple intraday strategy with tight Take Profits and the Stop loss 3-10 times wider. You can use any indicator as a signal but i would suggest trading near market opens/close/news events to take advantage of the volatility. This should put your Win rate at about 60 -70ish percent. Adjust your leverage accordingly. You can risk anywhere...
LOL no.. not even close

you go all in in every trade, aiming for a small TP from a larger time frame (practically guaranteed to hit) with a very clear set of rules/conditions in their strategy; in fact if they are not running robots the rules are still the same in manual trading

hit rate its almost 100%

Think about this: if you have a main account and lets say you made 100 bucks profit from it; why you dont take those 100$ and open a new account and go all out with a competition strategy aproach??

Whats the worst it can happen? you either blow up those FREE 100$ (profit from the main account wich are "expendable" no risk money) OR make a crap load of money??


The problem in general with trading its 2 fold: wrong/faulty/flawed aproach to trading AND that people in general its more afraid of losing money than actually making it..

Fear = failure sooner or later
  • #5
  • Mar 14, 2018 9:01pm Mar 14, 2018 9:01pm
Quoting havo
{quote} LOL no.. not even close you go all in in every trade, aiming for a small TP from a larger time frame (practically guaranteed to hit) with a very clear set of rules/conditions in their strategy; in fact if they are not running robots the rules are still the same in manual trading hit rate its almost 100% Think about this: if you have a main account and lets say you made 100 bucks profit from it; why you dont take those 100$ and open a new account and go all out with a competition strategy aproach?? Whats the worst it can happen? you either...
You'd have to account for the fact that most(Or some, idk for sure) competitions have minimum trades required per week. Which means you dont have the luxury of going all in into a trade and wait for it to hit your TP. Sure you can achieve near 100% win rate that way, but how long before it hits your TP?

In any case, the general idea for contest strategies is to trade very aggressively.

I do not understand what you are trying to get across with your $100 analogy. Maybe you could elabourate? Your idea of expandable money sounds good on paper, but it is a statistical gurantee that a string of losses will wipe out your gains.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #6
  • Mar 15, 2018 2:28am Mar 15, 2018 2:28am
thanks all for reply ....

contest conditions are :
Balance : 1000 $
Leverage : 1:2000
duration : 1 week (5 working days)

therocaly , it is easy games (it should consider like a game not as real life) , but it is very difficult when you see some people especially the asian (Indonisia , china.....) the double the account about 10 times every day ....

So any one know haw to play this game ?????
  • #7
  • Mar 15, 2018 3:16am Mar 15, 2018 3:16am
Quoting synicz
It depends on the rules of the contest youre participating in. Im assuming its those typical FX contest that spans about 1 month. With no rules against martingales and minimum of 5 trades a week. You could create a simple intraday strategy with tight Take Profits and the Stop loss 3-10 times wider. You can use any indicator as a signal but i would suggest trading near market opens/close/news events to take advantage of the volatility. This should put your Win rate at about 60 -70ish percent. Adjust your leverage accordingly. You can risk anywhere...

Wao!
Trade to trade well
  • #8
  • Mar 15, 2018 3:21am Mar 15, 2018 3:21am
Quoting Waddah
thanks all for reply .... contest conditions are : Balance : 1000 $ Leverage : 1:2000 duration : 1 week (5 working days) therocaly , it is easy games (it should consider like a game not as real life) , but it is very difficult when you see some people especially the asian (Indonisia , china.....) the double the account about 10 times every day .... So any one know haw to play this game ?????
With just a single week to maximize gains. And the availability of 1:2000 leverage, your best best is probably go all in every trade and aim for 1 pip winners. Compound those winners over multiple trades, and pray you dont blow up before contest end date. Alternatively, you can try to catch a big move, maybe during news event. And pray that youre on the right side of the trade.


PS: Notice how often I use the word "pray", as such contest essentially is a game of luck.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #9
  • Mar 15, 2018 11:29am Mar 15, 2018 11:29am
Quoting Waddah
Hello ... i am looking for strategy or trading system suitable for forex contest ....any advises pls?
if you don't have a profitable strategy; then you should not participate in the contest.

to win in a contest; you need to beat professional traders; and you have to be good at it; let alone if you don't have a strategy.

in short; you need 10,000 hours of screen time to be a profitable trader; and another 10,000 hours to win in the contest; so see you in 2022
  • #10
  • Mar 15, 2018 11:48am Mar 15, 2018 11:48am
Quoting Waddah
thanks all for reply .... contest conditions are : Balance : 1000 $ Leverage : 1:2000 duration : 1 week (5 working days) therocaly , it is easy games (it should consider like a game not as real life) , but it is very difficult when you see some people especially the asian (Indonisia , china.....) the double the account about 10 times every day .... So any one know haw to play this game ?????
the simple recipe IF you have a 1000$ to risk for the fame...

1. pick a volatile pair that seem to be ready for a directional turn
2. go all in
3. pray that it turns before hit margin call...(may be end of game here)
4. if turned ride it, if you pick good the move could/should last 3-4 days
5. enjoy your extreme hard return%

1A. alternative: high risk martingale, with the rest of the points being similar.

contest, especially those short term, and even more so the demo ones are a good bait for the broker, tricking ppl in that it is so easy to gain 100s of % in a short time, and making them deposit out of greed than they can manage to lose.
these contest strategies dont last long, and not easy to repeat.
without high risk, there is no high return ( not in short time like days/weeks anyway).
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #11
  • Mar 15, 2018 9:02pm Mar 15, 2018 9:02pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} You'd have to account for the fact that most(Or some, idk for sure) competitions have minimum trades required per week. Which means you dont have the luxury of going all in into a trade and wait for it to hit your TP. Sure you can achieve near 100% win rate that way, but how long before it hits your TP?
It can hit you TP in minutes easily

Quoting synicz
{quote}In any case, the general idea for contest strategies is to trade very aggressively. I do not understand what you are trying to get across with your $100 analogy. Maybe you could elabourate?
It was an analogy for anyone to test their "fear" factor.. Would you go for a high (40/50)% per trade with a proven (lets say) 90/95% win rate strategy??

why? why not?? why are you afraid of "risking" so much with such a high win rate? (if you are) ?? you are doing this for the money right?? think long and hard about it =)

Quoting synicz
{quote}Your idea of expandable money sounds good on paper, but it is a statistical gurantee that a string of losses will wipe out your gains.
I actually trade that way: i have a "main" account wich i dont touch other than to make a quick 100 bucks, open a new one with that money and go with a 30/40% per trade with my proven aproach (VERY high win rate) and NO you can NOT bust an account when the capital management and win rate its working in sync.. at worst i go back and forth for a couple of trades and then i pickup again

you make lots of money WITH "expendable" money wich it doesnt matter if you lose it in the worst case scenario (its not your main account or ALL your saving or something like that)

After a series of trades (around 20 wich its a month of trades for me) i withdraw the money to my bank and go all over again; im working right now in doing the same but with 5 small accounts and a trade copier (still testing the software) so i can compound way more per month

and before anyone make a sarcastic comment NO im not rich, i maintain my parents (they need medication) and i live in the most catastrofic economy in this planet.. so i make money but my expenses are high so its not that easy in the end..

ohh !! 1 more thing im going to share: what people like to call and "edge" its nothing more than 1 event that have a high probability to happen OVER another one (like its more probable than price will go up than down IN THIS CONDITIONS) IF its a real edge it should always have the same % of turning in your favor in the same conditions... always; if its not happening then its not constant and then its not worth it because sometimes it will be a blind bet (do you want to put money on the line with "blind bet" ??)


Go for the kill.. not for the "safe" !! simplify, repetable, consistent !! GO FOR THE MONEY, STOP BEING AFRAID change the aproach, optimize it FOR the money NOT for the safe !!
  • #12
  • Mar 16, 2018 1:22am Mar 16, 2018 1:22am
I appreciate your detailed reply havo. However, I do have some slight disagreement with your views.

Firstly, lets agree that the concepts we are talking about is related to real world trading, and not competition trading. As your points are valid for trading competition.

Now to get down to it. My main concern is with your advocation of taking huge risk per trade (up to 50%), irregardless of the win rate. In theory it would work well if trading outcome is fixed (E.g win $100 or lose $100) and win rates are stationary. In reality, this rarely holds true. One will rarely win/lose the same amount every trade, you can try to maintain consistency by setting TP and SL levels, or trading only a single pair. But this will than have an effect on your win rate. Such is the paradox of fixing TP and Sl levels.
Next would be the issue to win rates. In a perfect world, our win rates will hold constant through time. Unfortunately, win rates in the real world are dynamic. A 95% win rate this month may turn into a 75% win rate next month. Now this might not sound as bad. But consider your advocation of risking 50% capital per trade. All it takes is a drop in win rate to blow your account up.


My next disagreement in view is related to your idea of "expandable money" account. Similarly, youre risking huge proportions of that account per trade, because it is expandable money after all.
The thing is if you look at your TOTAL trading capital, including those OUTSIDE of your expandable money account. Suddenly your huge risk of 50% per trade on a $100 account becomes relatively tiny. Maybe its 1% of your total trading capital, or even less. Even if you double or triple your "expandable" account, taken into the context of your total trading capital, youre only gaining 1-2%.
In essence, what appears to be a high risk move isnt actually so risky afterall. Theres not much diffrence with creating a sub account to make risky trades, and just betting small on risky trades.
I hope you get what Im talking about.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #13
  • Mar 16, 2018 8:10am Mar 16, 2018 8:10am
Quoting synicz
I appreciate your detailed reply havo. However, I do have some slight disagreement with your views. Firstly, lets agree that the concepts we are talking about is related to real world trading, and not competition trading. As your points are valid for trading competition. Now to get down to it. My main concern is with your advocation of taking huge risk per trade (up to 50%), irregardless of the win rate.
oh no !! no no no, you dont risk that much UNLESS you have a high win rate !! otherwise its just a suicide because BOTH are connected

Quoting synicz
In theory it would work well if trading outcome is fixed (E.g win $100 or lose $100) and win rates are stationary. In reality, this rarely holds true. One will rarely win/lose the same amount every trade, you can try to maintain consistency by setting TP and SL levels, or trading only a single pair. But this will than have an effect on your win rate. Such is the paradox of fixing TP and Sl levels.
I trade PRICE based charts, not the traditional time based charts.. with price based charts the SL/TP and the amount of % per trade its actually "stationary" because every bar its the same size in pips and my aproach have fixed SL/TP when a signal shows

With all of this the signal its the same every single time, the SL/TP its exactly the same (same ratio of course, it doesnt matter if someday i change the bar size) and the the result its the same every time.. thats 1 of my secrets =)

NOW the oposite its true IF you trade time based charts because every candle its whatever size they like (lol) and that plays against you in trying to achieve consistent SL/TP, etc etc..

Quoting synicz
Next would be the issue to win rates. In a perfect world, our win rates will hold constant through time. Unfortunately, win rates in the real world are dynamic. A 95% win rate this month may turn into a 75% win rate next month. Now this might not sound as bad. But consider your advocation of risking 50% capital per trade. All it takes is a drop in win rate to blow your account up.
IF i use exactly my signal entry in the exact same place in the chart THEN the win rate its consistent because, like i previously said, the bars are constant in size and when the conditions are set the outcome have a VERY high % of going in your favor, wich its the TRUE definition of what people like to call and "edge" (a higher than probability of something happening instead of a ramdon result)

NOW its true that the win rate can drop IF i dont trade my signal in the pre defined place in the chart !! in that case i would no be trading with an edge, but a random condition with a random results and you dont want that do you? =) thats why you need discipline and stick to your plan no matter wth its going on !!

Quoting synicz
My next disagreement in view is related to your idea of "expandable money" account. Similarly, youre risking huge proportions of that account per trade, because it is expandable money after all. The thing is if you look at your TOTAL trading capital, including those OUTSIDE of your expandable money account. Suddenly your huge risk of 50% per trade on a $100 account becomes relatively tiny. Maybe its 1% of your total trading capital, or even less. Even if you double or triple your "expandable" account, taken into the context of your total trading...
Regarding the account the %, etc All of what you said here its true but there its a tiny but BIG pro to split the money in 1 tiny account: because its not your main account (all the money you just cant not afford to lose or you are screwed) there is a positive psychological impact in your way of thinking and aproach to the trades, you are more relaxed, you can follow your plan WAY better, the outcome almost doesnt matter (well almost, you still want to make money everytime of course lol), etc etc.. in this conditions you gain a psychological "edge" if you want to give it a name it almost becomes like a game where there is practically no stress

You could call the main account the REAL Stop Loss because you never go bankrupt/margin call.. never, and it always have the power to make fund a new "go for the kill" account in case you bust 1 (it never happens if you follow the plan.. never ever, unless you trade at random and dont follow the plan, but who does that??)


HUGE difference once you understand it, trust me =)
  • #14
  • Mar 19, 2018 7:40am Mar 19, 2018 7:40am
havo, can i ask what is your stop loss distant ? are you going with 1:1 RR every trade or set stoploss to BE and let profit run.. ?
  • #15
  • Mar 19, 2018 1:49pm Mar 19, 2018 1:49pm
Quoting ken331
{quote} havo, can i ask what is your stop loss distant ?
Its variable, dependes on the pip range im using


Quoting ken331
{quote}are you going with 1:1 RR every trade or set stoploss to BE and let profit run.. ?
IF i enter a trade and i see that it have a lot of impulse, then i can manually move the SL/TP and see where it takes me.. but i dont care if i can do it or not, wining more than 1:1 its great of course but its not my goal.. why? because my win rate, money management and capital growth its based on a 1:1 trade

if i mess with the R:R, then everything else gets screwed !! wich its NOT my goal !!
  • #16
  • Mar 19, 2018 3:48pm Mar 19, 2018 3:48pm
thanks, that makes sense.

what instrument are you trading ? how many hours do you trade everyday ? does yr method generate same signal daily or someday no signal, so you skip for another day ?

Quoting havo
{quote} Its variable, dependes on the pip range im using {quote} IF i enter a trade and i see that it have a lot of impulse, then i can manually move the SL/TP and see where it takes me.. but i dont care if i can do it or not, wining more than 1:1 its great of course but its not my goal.. why? because my win rate, money management and capital growth its based on a 1:1 trade if i mess with the R:R, then everything else gets screwed !! wich its NOT my goal !!
  • #17
  • Mar 19, 2018 7:25pm Mar 19, 2018 7:25pm
Quoting ken331
thanks, that makes sense. what instrument are you trading ? how many hours do you trade everyday ? does yr method generate same signal daily or someday no signal, so you skip for another day ? {quote}
Sure, practically every day i got a signal (once in a while i dont but when it happens the market its all weird so i dont mind honestly) i trade only 2 instruments in the New york session (my time) and thats it.. 1 perfect signal, 1 trade and im done for the day if not.. tomorrow its a new day

Always remember: with money on the line put the odds in your favor !! if they are not there then dont random trade!!

It just make sense right??

=)
  • #18
  • Edited 8:10pm Mar 19, 2018 7:38pm | Edited 8:10pm
Quoting havo
{quote} Sure, practically every day i got a signal (once in a while i dont but when it happens the market its all weird so i dont mind honestly) i trade only 2 instruments in the New york session (my time) and thats it.. 1 perfect signal, 1 trade and im done for the day if not.. tomorrow its a new day Always remember: with money on the line put the odds in your favor !! if they are not there then dont random trade!! It just make sense right?? =)
yes, your teaching makes total sense to me. what i learned from you that is

- keep trading as constant( same candle size, same sl, same tp, same entry signal, same trading hours, same instrument...)==> same probability instead of random probability.

can you give some advise about trading bigger lotsize, what i have problem that is, when I reach consistent winning, double my account, then i cant seem to follow my trading plan with bigger lotsize as i am afraid to lose my profit. i notice whenever i have this mindset, i start to lose all my profit after that and trading recklessly..
  • #19
  • Mar 19, 2018 8:43pm Mar 19, 2018 8:43pm
Quoting ken331
{quote} yes, your teaching makes total sense to me. what i learned from you that is - keep trading as constant( same candle size, same sl, same tp, same entry signal, same trading hours, same instrument...)==> same probability instead of random probability.
Basically yes

Quoting ken331
{quote}can you give some advise about trading bigger lotsize, what i have problem that is, when I reach consistent winning, double my account, then i cant seem to follow my trading plan with bigger lotsize as i am afraid to lose my profit. i notice whenever i have this mindset, i start to lose all my profit after that and trading recklessly..
Use an automatic tool/trade manager.. 1 click and you are set so you dont "see" the lot, money amount etc.. Also close the lower portion of the MT4, you dont need to watch the account going up/down you cant control that; focus on the process thats what its important, the result doesnt matter !!!!

those 2 helps a lot

Fear.. of losing; you are driving by FEAR get over it or you will never going to move forward; how?? up to you, sorry i cant help you with that
  • #20
  • Last Post: Mar 19, 2018 9:41pm Mar 19, 2018 9:41pm
Quoting havo
{quote} Basically yes {quote} Use an automatic tool/trade manager.. 1 click and you are set so you dont "see" the lot, money amount etc.. Also close the lower portion of the MT4, you dont need to watch the account going up/down you cant control that; focus on the process thats what its important, the result doesnt matter !!!! those 2 helps a lot Fear.. of losing; you are driving by FEAR get over it or you will never going to move forward; how?? up to you, sorry i cant help you with that
Glad to see another price chart trader like myself. they do shut out the noise 70%
Read in between the price!!!
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