Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

thanks,
I do agree with you.
I hope I dont ruin your thread

Thank you for adding to my thread by posting a clear and accurate chart of EUR/CHF wave count, oedipean. That is very helpful. What are those dotted yellow lines that run across the chart with numbers beside them? Fibonacci lines? How do you use them to trade? To predict the size of Wave 4 corrective wave?

thanks you are really kind person .
Yeah fibonacci retracements .you are right here I used them for finding end of wave 4 . as you know wave 4 finnish between 0.382 and 0.5 of wave three approximately 70% of times.
I use fibonacci retracements and projection for finding end of wave 5 and 4 and of cource 2 .
and I use fibonacci time retracemnets for high probable time retracemnet.
thanks

Though I have elected not to employ Fibonacci projections and retracements, the observations I have made and the results that others who employ them have reported to me indicates to me that they are a very "blunt instrument" - so inaccurate and unreliable that they could hardly be useful for a trading system. Can one use Fibonacci ratios to enter and exit trades and design a winning system in this fashion? I doubt it.

Counting the Elliott Waves, on the other hand, gives consistent, precise indications of where one is in the wave pattern, and allows one to recognise the endpoints. One needs to understand the theory of how they work, and to practise long and hard on a chosen currency pair, but I know it can be done.

I know very little about the fibonacci time retracements. Perhaps if one combined the fibonacci ratios in price and time, and found some coincidence, then one could improve the accuracy and consistency. What has been your experience?

Thanks for your time I might have to try something else, I ran in some trouble with aud/usd down 30pips its going sideways and does not want to move up. Bc Im trying something new that I came up with did good on usd/chf,usd/jpy,and eur/jpy and I almost got into usd/cad but everything didnt add up right so I will wait for that one. Thanks

Dear itme ,
I think you are right.
but there is a point , when both wave counts and fibonacci lines show same retracement area . odds to retrace go up .
this is my point of view .
but ignoring to consider fibonacci should not be so important I think.
thanks for complete comments and attentions

with regards

Yes, my analysis indicates that AUD/USD is descending to .7350 or lower. I have a trade experiment based on that premise right now, and it is up about 100 pips so far. See here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...USD#post106762

Based on my wave count, it could go down to about .7415 before going into a Wave 4 retracement.

yeah, I see that now thanks I guess I got some more testing I have to do for my study

dear itme
according to the signal BUY usd cad at 1.1086, isnt it?
now i am still waitng the price hit to 1.1086, by the way..when the price will go down? or am i late?

thanks itme for your sharing trading experience..

waskito

Friday September 29 at 9:30 ET

Adjust stop Trade Signal #181C Sell EUR/CAD to 1.4166 (10 pips higher)

This trade was entered into a bit too low. According to our system the entry price should have been 1.4135, and the stop 1.4166.
_____________________________________________________________


Previous trade signals:

Friday September 29 at 4:30 ET
Trade Signal #181C Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4125
Stop is 1.4156
Target is 1.3950
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 165 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.0 to 1
__________________________________________________ ________

Wednesday September 27 at 12:45 ET

Two successful trades, one a re-entry of the other: The target for the two trades shorting EUR/CAD of 141.20 was met at 17:30 September 25 and surpassed by a mere 8 pips. It's a good thing we revised the target, as we would have fallen short of the original target of 141.00
_________________________________________

Adjust target on Trade Signal #181A Sell EUR/CAD to 141.20 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Tuesday September 26 at 8:30 ET

Adjust target on Trade Signal #181A Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4342 to 141.20

Also adjust target on Trade Signal #181B Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4322 to the same value
__________________________________________________ ___________
Thursday September 21 at 14:45 ET

Since exiting our short EUR/CAD trade the price did indeed follow a five wave pattern up to our precise target of 1.4342 at 13:00 ET on September 20, about ten hours after we exited the sell trade. According to our system, this would have been the time to sell as follows:

Trade Signal #181A Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4342
Stop is 1.4374
Target #1 is 1.4100
Risk is 42 pips
Reward is 232 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 5.5 to 1
__________________________________________________

Thursday September 21 at 20:00 ET

The current price of EUR/CAD at 1.4322 is probably the top of an upwards complex "abc" corrective wave, and thus a viable entry point.

Re-Entry Opportunity Trade Signal #181B Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4322
Stop is 1.4362
Target #1 is 1.4100
Risk is 52 pips
Reward is 212 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.1 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note: we were a little early in this entry. A more complete "abc" pattern subsequently formed, with a high slightly higher at 1.4335

Sorry, waskito
USD/CAD did not descend to meet our entry price. It did however, rise about 90 pips.

We placed the entry price at a conservative level that may or may not have been met. By placing it there, we designed a trade with a good reward :risk ratio, but not a certainty of entry. The problem was that we noticed the setup after the completion of Wave 5 down and Wave 1 up and Wave 2 down, all of which provided optimum entry levels at about 1.1090. We did a quick wave count, and decided that it was likely to descend again to this level. We now, upon more careful study, realise that this was improbable. We had missed the boat. The only option was to enter later than optimum at a higher price and thus enter a trade with a less optimum reward : risk ratio. We already have quite a few trades in progress, so we didn't feel that there was a shortage of opportunities.

We can't be everywhere at all times and call every opportunity in the market, and maintain or improve the quality of our performance at the same time. We would need a team of highly skilled and practiced analysts working around the clock to anticipate, fully analyse, confirm, verify, and provide fair warning on every single optimum entry opportunity, and then to monitor each trade ongoingly in case there needed to be a small adjustment to the stop or target level. This, we do not have. Yet.

Itme


"according to the signal BUY usd cad at 1.1086, isnt it?
now i am still waitng the price hit to 1.1086, by the way..when the price will go down? or am i late?

thanks itme for your sharing trading experience..

waskito"
<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->

ok no matter..
and thanks a lot, and tomorrow i am still concern with your signal for another pair cause last day i was got 90 pip more with gbpjpy..
thanks itme..

Would someone like to confirm if todays low of 1.2637 is the completion of wave 5??? For a while I thought it was just completing wave B of a abc retracement, but after further data following todays move it looks as if that is a completion of wave 5....so I entered into a buy at 1.2650 to ride the abc retracement, with a target of 1.2793 for its completion. Thanks!!!

Friday September 29 at 9:30 ET

Adjust stop Trade Signal #181C Sell EUR/CAD to 1.4166 (10 pips higher)

This trade was entered into a bit too low. According to our system the entry price should have been 1.4135, and the stop 1.4166.
__________________________________________________ ___________


Previous trade signals:

Friday September 29 at 4:30 ET
Trade Signal #181C Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4125
Stop is 1.4156
Target is 1.3950
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 165 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.0 to 1

If i'm reading this right-this trade was stopped out...

hey itme i closed the usacad pair i believe it is still in a C wave down that will possibly go to the 162% mark on the fib line. Right now i think it is in mini wave 4 of the long c wave down i will post chart. Keep in mind Classically W.C is a five wave pattern. The numbers are the mini waves of the bigger wave C I need to wait until Monday for extra verification to make sure this is gonna be wave 1 up. I dont generally trade wave 1 I wait for the end of wave 2 to jump onyou can verify wave to end because it is usally > 50% < 78.6% of W.1. Lets make sure we are at the end of C it could possibly go to 1.1063 If we open next monday above 1.1150 strong chance we will go to 1300 or so just above the big B wave on my chart before going down 2 wavehttp://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif

Hey oedipean thanks for your in put on my thread I was trying to get good ellioticians like yourself who know elliot rules so we can collaborate on wave counts. If on the right count major pips can be made easy. I wish I would have been trading like this in the past before I lost big money. LOL but has gained almost half of it back so far.http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif

what do you think about the usdcad pair

Hi itme

What is you current view on the eur/cad?. Thankyou in advance

Hi Itme

eur/cad nudging 1.42. What is your opinion given several revised stops etc? Regards

Monday October 2, 2006 at 13:15 ET

Following two successful trades shorting EUR/CAD, one from the top of the trend, and one a re-entry trade, we attempted to re-enter again at what we thought was the top of a corrective wave. This attempt was unsuccessful, as the price of EUR/CAD rose much more as EUR/USD rose about 130 pips in a Wave 4 upwards corrective wave of its downtrend, while USD/CAD also rose at the same time. This produced an upwards corrective wave in EUR/CAD of about 175 pips size.

Our system indicates that the top of this upwards corrective wave on EUR/CAD lies between 1.2450 and 1.4260

Monday October 2, 2006 at 13:15 ET

Trade Signal #181D Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4250
Stop is 1.4305
Target is 1.3950
Risk is 70 pips
Reward is 285 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

_________________________________________________________

Adjust stop Trade Signal #181C Sell EUR/CAD to 1.4166 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Previous trade signals:

Friday September 29 at 9:30 ET

Adjust stop Trade Signal #181C Sell EUR/CAD to 1.4166 (10 pips higher)

This trade was entered into a bit too low. According to our system the entry price should have been 1.4135, and the stop 1.4166.
__________________________________________________ ___________

Friday September 29 at 4:30 ET
Trade Signal #181C Sell EUR/CAD at 1.4125
Stop is 1.4156
Target is 1.3950
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 165 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 4.0 to 1

For research purposes only.