The Swamp | Page 870 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #17,381
  • Mar 9, 2018 4:21pm Mar 9, 2018 4:21pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} that FX B kept you up again..?.. Have a great weekend...
This time FX woke me up. This bitsh is so horny. She wants to milk me dry... lol
  • #17,382
  • Edited 7:18pm Mar 9, 2018 4:39pm | Edited 7:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
although the week closed higher. I closed my long for the chance to re-buy as described earlier above. placed a pending at 2285.
Gator, just remind you the time change.... so you adjust your London close time

On this upcoming Sunday, March 11th, most of the US and Canada will be moving clocks forward by 1 hour as daylight savings time hours will begin. Europe and other countries observing daylight savings time will be moving clocks forward exactly two weeks later on March 25th
  • #17,383
  • Mar 11, 2018 8:50am Mar 11, 2018 8:50am
Intraweek; buyer 1.2250/1.2205, seller, 1.2445/2475.
Intraday; buyer 2250, seller 2355.
  • #17,384
  • Mar 11, 2018 11:54am Mar 11, 2018 11:54am
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

Until Tuesday, institutions were seen cutting their net long positions in Euro , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, Mar 6, 2018.
The institutions net long Euro positions decreased last week by 5,005 contracts to 132,972 contracts.

10,933 long positions were closed, and 5,928 short positions were closed as well. Now Longs total 227,354 contracts vs shorts total 94,382 contracts .

71% long exposure vs 29% short exposure, which 1% increased in longs and 1% decreased in shorts from previous week

This week Euro started at 1.2232 on 2/28, moved down to 1.2155 on 3/1,institutions closed their shorts and pushed Euro up, Euro rallied to 1.2416 high on 3/6, then institutions started to unwind their longs, Euro closed at 1.2403 as of the report date

Longs being closed, it indicates institutions hesitation to challenge the higher price level, after seeing last two months, there were several unsuccessful attempts at $125

Shorts being closed, which helped Euro longs, it indicates institutions are in preparation for price moving up in coming weeks

Euro is currently below 20 day (1.2335) and above 50 day (1.2270) , if it breaks above1.2335, the initial resistance 1.2470 and after that 125

If it breaks below 1.2270 support, we have daily demand zone lies underneath at 1.2230-1.2150

Long Term Bullish But Short Term Wait For Confirmation …

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For Euro, they have built their net long positions since 5/9/2017.
Therefore, the bullish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro chart.png Size: 19 KB
  • #17,385
  • Edited 1:41pm Mar 11, 2018 12:02pm | Edited 1:41pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Dollar This Week

For Dollar, the latest COT as of Tuesday, Mar 6, 2018, institutions decreased bearish bets by 1,967 contracts to net position negative 121

1,610 longs were added and 357 shorts were closed as well, Now Longs total 24,345 contracts vs shorts total 24,466 contracts .

50% long exposure vs 50% short exposure, both even. Longs added 2% and shorts dropped 2% from the previous week

Dollar near term resistance at 90.50-91 and support at 88-89 area. Price has been in this range for last 7 weeks

Dollar is currently above 20 day 89.8. As long as the support holds, price may move higher to challenge the resistance at 90.50-91

Long term Bearish, Short term points to higher

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For dollar, they have been decreasing their net long positions for over a year
Therefore, the bearish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollar chart.png Size: 22 KB
  • #17,386
  • Mar 11, 2018 12:59pm Mar 11, 2018 12:59pm
Quoting Boulder
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week Until Tuesday, institutions were seen cutting their net long positions in Euro , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, Mar 6, 2018. The institutions net long Euro positions decreased last week by 5,005 contracts to 132,972 contracts. 10,933 long positions were closed, and 5,928 short positions were closed as well. Now Longs total 227,354 contracts vs shorts total 94,382 contracts . 71% long exposure vs 29% short exposure, which 1% increased in longs and 1% decreased in shorts...
Quoting Boulder
How Institutions Position Themselves In Dollar This Week For Dollar, the latest COT as of Tuesday, Mar 6, 2018, institutions decreased bearish bets by 1,967 contracts to net short 121 1,610 longs were added and 357 shorts were closed as well, Now Longs total 24,345 contracts vs shorts total 24,466 contracts . 50% long exposure vs 50% short exposure, both even. Longs added 2% and shorts dropped 2% from the previous week Dollar near term resistance at 90.50-91 and support at 88-89 area. Price has been in this range for last 7 weeks Dollar is currently...
Thanks Boulder, really appreciate your contribution
  • #17,387
  • Mar 11, 2018 1:03pm Mar 11, 2018 1:03pm
Quoting Boulder
How Institutions Position Themselves In Dollar This Week For Dollar, the latest COT as of Tuesday, Mar 6, 2018, institutions decreased bearish bets by 1,967 contracts to net short 121 1,610 longs were added and 357 shorts were closed as well, Now Longs total 24,345 contracts vs shorts total 24,466 contracts . 50% long exposure vs 50% short exposure, both even. Longs added 2% and shorts dropped 2% from the previous week Dollar near term resistance at 90.50-91 and support at 88-89 area. Price...
just wondering, do these two numbers need to be swapped?
  • #17,388
  • Mar 11, 2018 1:40pm Mar 11, 2018 1:40pm
Quoting ws121
{quote} just wondering, do these two numbers need to be swapped?
thanks for noticing.. the numbers are correct. Institutions added 1,610 long + closed 357 shorts =1967 decreased bearish bet.
position: long positions 24345-short position 24466=(121)
instead of net short, probably its better for me to say. ..net position negative 121..I fixed... thanks ws!
  • #17,389
  • Mar 11, 2018 2:00pm Mar 11, 2018 2:00pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} thanks for noticing.. the numbers are correct. Institutions added 1,610 long + closed 357 shorts =1967 decreased bearish bet. position: long positions 24345-short position 24466=(121) instead of net short, probably its better for me to say. ..net position negative 121..I fixed... thanks ws!
ok, yes now it makes sense. Thanks for replying
  • #17,390
  • Edited 3:04pm Mar 11, 2018 2:52pm | Edited 3:04pm
funny I had planned myself for a big move this last Friday and was short biased for many reasons:

1- market seems to has been topped and ready for a correction of this year+ long up-move

2- historically, March always printed positive NFP (and it proved true again)

3- Boulder's system (which has an influence on me) is showing mid-term downtrend

4- before NFP, market was stuck between the 2 previous weekly closes 1.2294 and 1.2313 for 19 hours, which lead my thinking that it's that silence before the explosion. Either up or down, but was so sure (which proves how naive I am) there's gonna be an explosion

5- and probably my short from the top did affect me emotionally to lean towards the downside so I can grab some more green

Instead, after the NFP report, price was still stuck in the same range. Only went exactly 22 pips above and below that range to end up right in the middle of the range at 1.2305

Any thoughts guys, girls, angels, demons, Jesus, Buddha, Mohammed, Moses, God, Satan .....?
  • #17,391
  • Mar 11, 2018 5:13pm Mar 11, 2018 5:13pm
Quoting ws121
funny I had....Any thoughts guys, girls, angels, demons, Jesus, Buddha, Mohammed, Moses, God, Satan .....?
I know one person who can give you a hint on it but you did not call his name "Gator" on your list above lol ... j/k
  • #17,392
  • Edited 5:46pm Mar 11, 2018 5:30pm | Edited 5:46pm
Quoting Angelina
{quote} I know one person who can give you a hint on it but you did not call his name "Gator" on your list above lol ... j/k
Lol, I was actually trying to provoke him
GAAAAAAAAATOOOOOOOOOOR
  • #17,393
  • Mar 11, 2018 7:31pm Mar 11, 2018 7:31pm
Gator, I have another question if you don't mind elaborating here (anyone else's contribution would be appreciated)

I know you trade technicals and your magic levels but I also know that you're wise enough to consider fundies. I actually read many posts by you that showed your in-depth views of fundies.

My question is: we all heard about Donald Trump to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium but no one here mentioned it or it's impact on USD.

Everyone is talking about a possible trade war, especially between the US and China. This should have a huge impact on the US currency and therefore on all other currencies.

Maybe I'm so naive at this and over thinking it or trying to be a smart ass, but if there's anything that you might share about the subject and elaborate on, I, and I'm sure many others, would deeply appreciate it.
  • #17,394
  • Mar 11, 2018 8:12pm Mar 11, 2018 8:12pm
China steel and aluminium export to US only 2% of total US import. Import tariff is actually good for China to get rid of competitions.

Don't believe everything you see on the news at face value.

March 24, 2018 is the launch of Petro Yuan.
  • #17,395
  • Edited 9:01pm Mar 11, 2018 8:45pm | Edited 9:01pm
Quoting Ken A
China steel and aluminium export to US only 2% of total US import. Import tariff is actually good for China to get rid of competitions. Don't believe everything you see on the news at face value. March 24, 2018 is the launch of Petro Yuan.
and on the news (again) they're talking about China is aiming to overthrow the U.S. dollar as the currency of choice for the oil market.... which is true, but how far can this work for the benefit of China,,,,,, or the US dollar ?????????

And since investors work with anticipations and not facts, it should have already impacted the USD negatively big time, but it didn't...

Or maybe it's all priced in already....

Or maybe I'm missing something....
  • #17,396
  • Mar 11, 2018 8:48pm Mar 11, 2018 8:48pm
Quoting Ken A
China steel and aluminium export to US only 2% of total US import. Import tariff is actually good for China to get rid of competitions. Don't believe everything you see on the news at face value. March 24, 2018 is the launch of Petro Yuan.
and it's good to see you back here Ken A. haven't seen your posts for a long time
  • #17,397
  • Edited 10:55pm Mar 11, 2018 10:04pm | Edited 10:55pm
Quoting ws121
{quote} and it's good to see you back here Ken A. haven't seen your posts for a long time
ok ..WS.. As promised.. my EA2 just triggered Euro long at 1.2322...... EA has its own stop loss and TP, that are hidden... .. the statistics show mini move 24 pips and avg profit 56 pips, best profit 246 pips.. I mainly trade on EA2

EA 1 had 3 longs open already since Friday ...at 1.2328, 1.2313, 1.2312, .. EA1 has uptrend stop at 1.2291 at 1H close...

...good luck Euro bulls....
  • #17,398
  • Edited 11:36pm Mar 11, 2018 11:25pm | Edited 11:36pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} ok ..WS.. As promised.. my EA2 just triggered Euro long at 1.2322...... EA has its own stop loss and TP, that are hidden... .. the statistics show mini move 24 pips and avg profit 56 pips, best profit 246 pips.. I mainly trade on EA2 EA 1 had 3 longs open already since Friday ...at 1.2328, 1.2313, 1.2312, .. EA1 has uptrend stop at 1.2291 at 1H close... ...good luck Euro bulls....
Thanks for sharing with us Boulder. Good luck to you too
  • #17,399
  • Mar 12, 2018 4:12am Mar 12, 2018 4:12am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} ok ..WS.. As promised.. my EA2 just triggered Euro long at 1.2322...... EA has its own stop loss and TP, that are hidden... .. the statistics show mini move 24 pips and avg profit 56 pips, best profit 246 pips.. I mainly trade on EA2 EA 1 had 3 longs open already since Friday ...at 1.2328, 1.2313, 1.2312, .. EA1 has uptrend stop at 1.2291 at 1H close... ...good luck Euro bulls....
I'm still waiting.

I want to see if Gator's "guess" will flourish

if it does, I'm in
  • #17,400
  • Mar 12, 2018 6:17am Mar 12, 2018 6:17am
Eur/Usd: Daily Market Trends Update 3/12/2018

Eur/Usd On 3/12/2018 at 8am est.. Boulder Multi Time Frame System:

1H, Uptrend, Trend stop at 1H close 1.2299, Running Period: 20x1H
4H, Downtrend, Trend stop at 4H close 1.2441, Running Period: 10 x 4H
Daily, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.2471, Running Period: 9 days

( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action)

Trading Strategy:

Currently 1H uptrend ,4H and daily downtrend, a mix signal, more range trade

If you trade 1H chart, bulls/bears line 1.2299 at 1H close

Support: S1 1.2289, S2 1.2272, S3 1.2241
Resistance: R1: 1.2319, R2 1.2336 , R3 1.2364
257 traders viewing now