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Attachments: Lets Trade The News V 0.2 !
Exit Attachments

Lets Trade The News V 0.2 !

Quoting Warren Forex
This morning is a good example. Before the IFO number is released there is a recent tendency for rumors to preceed it. These rumors usually tend to be tilted towards a very bad number. This morning's number came in at 104.9 much better than the perception based on recent bad ZEW numbers and only .1 off the 105.0 expected.

However after a small spike up to EUR/USD 1.2758 the immediate reversal to 1.2729 and then since TA numbers get affected it hit a low of 1.2710 before mild recovery.

Was there a form of intervention ... The Dollar Index is at a critical area ...

How can this situation be traded or how do you see this reverse action to the data.

I have been trading FX since March 2006. I operate as a CTA and presently have $75,000 US Dollars under management. I am a FX trader who uses the news but I have a stong understanding of the economy so I tend to be very firm in my longer term view of the Euro. I also trade with the main trend. It is nice to join this Forex Forum.

Thank you for your comments.

BWM

Firm long term Euro?? As in Long No Matter What??

You sound like the same Warren from the SBFX MetaTrader forum. The guy with 70 or 80 straight (small) trades without a loss....the guy that can cut and paste news articles unlike any other....the guy that trades with ManFinancial Canada.... the guy that had a client ready to give him a bunch of cash to trade from some offshore sun-drenched island haven... the guy that claimed to be Warren "Buffett" (note the spelling)....

While I can agree with some of your fundamental "analysis" (some of which astonishingly matched mine back in July-August 2006), I can't say I agree with your trading strategy as explained in DETAIL at SBFX.

Warren, this is a kinder, gentler forum....many newbies looking for someone to follow. PLEASE, do not lead them astray.

Say it ain't so....
  • Post #82
  • Quote
  • Edited 1:50am Sep 27, 2006 1:01am | Edited 1:50am
hi money master

it is same Warren Forex gois by name of bruce who was at oanda did exatly the same i thought it was strange that in first couple of post he need to tell us he controlls $75000 of aother peoples accounts.

ps
the thread had to be closed
Quoting Bemac
I sent this Mod to Max before posting here.

The Added Sheet [Ver_0.3.1] contains all of the Mods. The remainder of the document is unchanged.

Mods:
"Avg.Move"
Formatted column so that you just enter Number of pips. The Text "Pips" will show up automaticly.
This will allow to Sort the sheet based on the "Avg. Move".

"Rating Column"
Re Coded to Auto Rate depending on Avg.Move Pips.

"Next Release"
Added a column for User Input of Next Known Release. Date & Time.
Conditional Formated to Visually Alert User to Upcoming Release.

"Countdown to Next Release"
Added Column to show Count Down to News Release.
Thanx Bemac for u edit, realy so cool... can u complete all the file with the same style.
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
Quoting superforex
hi money master

it is same Warren Forex gois by name of bruce who was at oanda did exatly the same i thought it was strange that in first couple of post he need to tell us he controlls $75000 of aother peoples accounts.

ps
the thread had to be closed
Thank you superforex,

True indeed, true indeed....it was Oanda's forum, not Sfbx.
Quoting BurgerKing
I have done some research on what this group is doing. basically its a straddle group. nothing more.

on another part, they have a CheckMate EA. Basically placing buy and sell orders continuously... At first I thought hey, its like Pivot point system. however on closer look, its simply a BUY SELL order for every 10 pips of movement... very good for range bound but totally a looser when the market trends.

Now why do they do this? Why the continous placement of buy/sell? At first, it was USDJPY, EURUSD and EURJPY where spread is acceptable. Later I am receiving email from WTA recommending doing the above checkmate system on some far off large spread exotics like EURNZD and at a closer distance of 8 pips instead of the previous 10..

Whats going on?

Looking for clues, I noticed that, they are an Introducing Broker for IBFX. And when you sign up under them, naturally, they get commissions from every trade made.

So whats the connection?

They are now recommending to trade for every 8 pips of movememt - this means, WTA get to receive commissions 20% more often. secondly, they are encouraging more currency pairs - so you get to trade even more often and they get more commissions out of you.

Checkmate EA is just a blood sucker. Stay away.
Thanx bk for info and all
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
I would like to thank Bemac, MaXeY, BurgerKing and anyone elso who has contributed to create this valuable file! Keep up the great work. I'll see if I can be of any help to improve the document.

P.S.:

@ MaXeY:

I see you're a big Naruto fan! Sasuke-kun is indeed cool, but Uchiha Itachi is far cooler! Mangekyou Sharingan!!! LOL!!!
Quoting ZedHashPip
I would like to thank Bemac, MaXeY, BurgerKing and anyone elso who has contributed to create this valuable file! Keep up the great work. I'll see if I can be of any help to improve the document.

P.S.:

@ MaXeY:

I see you're a big Naruto fan! Sasuke-kun is indeed cool, but Uchiha Itachi is far cooler! Mangekyou Sharingan!!! LOL!!!
Sasuke-kun gonna Revenge from Uchiha Itachi soon
Kage Shuriken no Jutsu :
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • Post #88
  • Quote
  • Edited 9:19am Sep 27, 2006 8:54am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting MaXeY
Sasuke-kun gonna Revenge from Uchiha Itachi soon
Kage Shuriken no Jutsu :
Yeah that's bound to happen sooner or later. Knowing how Japanese anime work Itachi will get his *** kicked big time! I'm already looking forward to it! BTW your Japanese is good.

That was totally off topic and I apologize...

Anyway good work MaXeY! (Just making this post a little meaningful... LOL)

EDIT:

I didn't dare to post another off topic reply to Narc...

Quoting Narc
you guys, there's no love for gaara........

BTT
WOW! It seems like there are a lot of Naruto/anime fans on this forum. Btw Gaara rules because he's so bad ***!
you guys, there's no love for gaara........

BTT
Quoting coolhell
Hello hunter101 ...

I agree with every single word u've said , but i want to say that when i talked about Felix's service i didn't meant joining his service for NEWS TRADING although he gives a FAST news service as i knew .. but that's not the point .. My real point is about joining to get the daily Technical Trading given by his partener Rob and his daily signals which they send even to mobiles ( when to enter/exit , Stop loos , Take profit ) .

You know , to have a daily signals by someone like ROB who is a ( BIG PROFESSIONAL trader who makes million$ yearly ) must be worthy .. right ?!

that was my point : fast news service , daily signals & SMS if u r not online , forex education . These r great things , I'm with u that it'll make the trader depending on others & maybe without understanding what's going on , the trader will even loose the pleasure of trading .

And about the sites that i gave about Felix , BELIEVE ME i dont know about them but i found them while searching and that's a normal thing that u must search before paying for such a service , i've even read in forex bastards forum about ppl who joined the service and didnt get anything . You can check it .
I dont know about scams , u can say i'm new in the field .. u may know scams better than me & thanx for clearing to me that these sites r scams .

finally i agree with u also that no need for this talk here . I wrote when someone asked about that service & i gave what i've got to make it somehow clear , and as u said ; Max gave us MORE THAN ENOUGH with his excel file ( Big thanx to him ) .

I hope that i cleared my point & thanx hunter101 for ur reply .

Bye .
I pass felix as a scam too. ROB is probably a millionaire from something else other than forex, cuz his method of trading is not profitable most of the time
I have looked high an low for a GOOD News trading forum....and I must say that this is shaping up to be the best group of news traders that I know. The comprehensive analysis from Maxey and BK and Bemac...the insight from Merlin and people like MoneyMaster...and (Donperry...I have seen you on another forum and appreciated your insight. It would be nice to see you add more to the group.) NewstraderFX also has given us some very helpful insight.

I know that I have benefited greatly from keeping up with this forum. It has been said by a very famous wise man that "In a multitude of counselors there is accomplishment". I believe that we can see this here.

Thank you Merlin for giving serious traders...that watch economic releases and trade the volatile stuff... a forum to exchange ideas, compare successes and failures and trade with the discipline that we need.

Just hope that one day I can add something substantial to the group myself.

DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
I like Merlin. I don't ever think that i have EVER seen Merlin say something out of context, offensive and off topic before ever before. Merlin is a rare and valubable find. I'm just glad he's on our side and NOT a broker!

Merlin's cool with me, anyone ever caught flaming Merlin, we WILL SPAM YOU!
Hello,
You are discussing here about trading the news with straddle strategy. But problem is that if market is realy fast than u will have slippage...
I am now 100% convinced that the only possibility to trade FX and Win consistently is to only use TA in order to understand how others are using it and be aware of it's misleading elements. I would appreciate an intelligent discussion in this Trade the News thread on this subject.

I will explain exactly what I mean in the following way. I am sitting on 15 open Positions of 100K EUR/USD.

My average cost for the One Million Five Hundred Thousand Euros that I control is 1.2741. I hold them in 7 blocks of 200K and 1 block of 100k.

At 7:27 GMT or 3:27 AM EST, Market News International releases a Bullet Mini Euro-Dollar TA alert. It says a break below 1,2677 on the hourly charts signals or targets a measured move to 1.2500.

At 1:00 AM EST (5:00 GMT) The EUR/USD was around 1.2710. Between 5:00 GMT and 7:00 GMT it drifted down to 1.2680. As explained above the Bullet TA came out at 7:27 GMT.

The alert goes on to say that interim support is at 1.2650 and perhaps more importantly, 1.2630 double day low. Below here, its game over for the euro and not much support seen until 1.2560.

Then as if to show the PILING ON nature of the SYSTEM, IFR Forex Watch which I access through my LIVE Trade Station Two of Man Financial Canada comes out with an updated TA at 7:30 GMT stating that sideways movement is forming two wedges between two trend lines. 1.2660 (1.2460 to 1.2630) and 1.2805 (1.2940 to 1.2830) They then go on to say this ... A break of the wedge pattern should be good for a 200 PIP move either 1.2460 or 1.2990.

Let me tell you this with 100% certainty. There is a good chance that between 9:00 GMT and 14:00 GMT these TA Bullets and comments will be shown to be more NOISE than fact. Especially if you see the EUR/USD is heading to 1.2500.
At 9:00 GMT is the Eurozone HICP for September. At 12:30 GMT is the US PCE Core release. At 9:45 GMT is the U Michigan confidence number and at 14:00 GMT is the USA Chicago PMI for September.

The EUR/USD in the last hour went as low as 1.2655 and now at 8:55 GMT it trades at 1.2674 To 1.2677 and in 5 minutes the Eurozone HCIP comes out. The previous was 2.30 % and the Consensus now is 1.90%/

Here is one of the TA comments...The HICP is
expected show a drop to 1.9% y/y from 2.3% last; we are going for a softer number still with a 1.8% level.

The number just came out at 1.8%...

The EUR/USD now reacts and is at 1.2679 To 1.2682...

Bottom Line... The TA might lead and influence short term but in the END, the FUNDAMENTALS move the FX Market. If the USA PCE Core is low and the USA U Michigan confidence number is below 85 (The previous was 82) and the USA Chicago PMI is below 56 (The previous was 57.1) Then just like last Friday when the Philly Fed number was -4 and it send the EUR/USD to 1.2830 on Friday, September 22, 2006, the EUR/USD will clear 1.2730 and head off on its journey up. Right now the EUR/USD has backed off to 1.2664 To 1.2667. BUYING SUPPORT is at 1.2650 since we have a DNT Option expiring at 14:00 GMT between 1.2650 and 1.2850 according to IFR.

That is another factor you need to be aware of to WIN at FX. To trade the News is an advantage but only if you understand what the NEWS really means. The US economy is most likely in a recession now. The housing market is collapsing. The FED will NOT raise again in 2006 and most likely CUT in 2007. The ECB raises on October 5, 2006, Gold is over $600 US Dollars and going up. The US Dollar is heading down. It is NO LONGER IF ... It is just when...The when is between now and October 2006.

I sincerely hope that this post will lead to an intelligent discussion on this professional Forex Forum.

EUR/USD now trades at 1.2669 To 1.2672 awaiting the 12:30 GMT US Data.

BWM
{Promotion Removed}
Analysts said the dollar is being buoyed at the moment against the euro from expectations that inflation in the 12-nation single currency zone will drop significantly when figures are published later this morning. Meanwhile, diminished UK rate expectations have put the pound on the backfoot against the US currency while the yen continues to suffer from Japanese demand for overseas assets.

Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas, doubts the underlying expectation of a soft landing in the US will last for long and that may soon put the US currency back in trouble.

He said the prevailing view may be challenged as soon as this afternoon's Chicago PMI survey or Monday's manufacturing ISM report.

"Any signs that the slowdown in the US housing sector is spilling over in the broader economy will start to disrupt the current investor assessment of the global market environment, putting speculative positioning at risk," he said.

At present the market thinks the Fed will keep its benchmark rate on hold at 5.25 pct for a few months yet. Meanwhile, most investors reckon the European Central Bank will raise its key refi rate a quarter point in both October and December, taking it up to 3.50 pct.

My Comments...
The FX Market is MOVED mainly by PERCEPTIONS about Interest Rate differentials, the FED raising or cutting, inflation or recession.

Whenever the PERCEPTION changes to the REALITY the Euro finds it proper level. I read yesterday that the Euro has NEVER stayed in a range such as it has ALL Summer between 1.2700 To 1.2900 EVER. Not the actual range but the TRENDLESS Nature of it. The EUR/USD now trades at 1.2672 To 1.2675.

I sincerely hope my last two posts will be enlightening to some.


BWM
{Promotion Removed}
This will allow you to understand the real truth at present. TA can't tell you this. The News on the surface needs to be understood. Many economists and analysts are badly informed. Read this in order to understand the difference between an expert and a guesser !!!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/pe...nto092706.html

Comments welcome.

BWM
{Promotion Removed}
hi warren can i respectably i ask you to open your own thread up rather then hijacking this one then we can make up our own minds up to read your comments or not
what is TA?
technical analysis
thank you
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