EUR/USD Extensive Elliot Wave Analysis

Hi Everyone,

In this thread I'll do an extensive EW analysis on EUR/USD. As we go I'll look for high probability swing and position trade entries.

The analysis on EW will go from GrandSupercycle to Minute waves.

We'll use the minor and minute waves in conjunction with fibonacci retracements, timezones, trendlines and continuation or reversal patterns to find entry points and price action for entry timing.

For exit targets we'll use intermediate/primary and cycle waves with all the above and fibonacci extensions.

Grand Supercylce and Supercycle waves we'll use to know what's going on longer term.

The actual exit will be price action and Indicator driven.
I will use following indicators:

1. MACD -> Entry Timing Filter / Divergence / Wave 3 Analysis
2. RSI -> Trend Strength Analysis / Divergence / Overbought-Oversold Conditions
3. EMA 5 / SMA 8 -> Trend Momentum Analysis
4. EMA 21 / EMA 55 -> Trend Speed Analysis
5. EMA 200 -> Trend Strength Analysis

You can follow my trades on the Trade Explorer attached.

First I'll sum up the waves we'll be analysing from big to small waves.

1. Grand Supercycle - Waves that last Decades / Analisys on the Monthly Chart
2. Supercycle - Waves that last Years / Analysis on the Monthly and Weekly Chart
3. Cycle - Waves that last Months / Analysis on the Weekly and Daily Chart
4. Primary - Waves that last Weeks / Analysis on the Weekly and Daily Chart
5. Intermediate - Waves that last Days / Analysis on the Daily and H4 Chart
6. Minor - Waves that last Hours / Analysis on the H4 and H1 Chart
7. Minute - Waves that last Minutes / Analysis on the H1 and M15 Chart

Every Chart will be named, so you can keep up with the degree.

Bullish waves are Darkgreen, Green, Forestgreen and Olive
Bearish waves are Red, Darkorange, Orange, Yellow

The waves will be named using the following legend.

The following 3 basic rules will be applied.

1. Wave 3 can never be the shortest impulse wave
2. Wave 2 can never go beyond the start of Wave 1
3. Wave 4 can never cross in the same price area as Wave 1

And a guidline that wave 3 is usually the longest.

For my next post I'll do an extensive analysis on EUR/USD so we'll know what's going on. The rest we'll do as we go.

More info on Elliot Wave can be found here.
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/


Grtz

Monthly Grand Supercycle - Supercycle

We'll start with the grand supercycle and cycle analysis on the monthly chart.

As you can see we did complete grandsupercycle wave ((II)), it ended at fib 61.8. And we are now on our way for either a correction on supercycle or a new supercycle uptrend, grand supercycle wave ((III)). We'll know when fib 76.2 get's broken (red lines), if it doesn't get broken we still are in a bearish correction on supercycle. So there are three to five cycle waves needed to complete (A).

If the 76.2 fib (green) get's broken ((I)) will be ((II)) and we'll be on our way for bearish wave ((III))



Weekly Supercylce - Cycle - Primary

As you can see on the weekly chart we did 5 primary waves to complete the first cycle wave (out of 3 to 5). We don't know if this is a bearish correction or a new supercycle uptrend yet.

We'll need two more waves to complete (A) on supercycle.



Daily Primary - Intermediate

On the daily we completed primary wave (5), now we are possibly in a complex triangular correction A -> E.
This can also turn in a primary bearish trend.



If this triangle range doesn't brake on the downside today and the last candle is a doji or a hammer there might be an opportunity for position trade long for wave 3 on cycle.


H4 Intermediate - Minor

This primary complex correction is a double three correction on intermediate. Short targets to complete wave Y is fibE 123.6 @ 1.2140.
We'll need at least one more wave to complete.



H1 Minor - Minute

So we'll need 5 minor waves, the only question now is if this wave 3 has ended or not.



Elliot Wave Analysis Conclusion

So Let's sum up the EW status as I see it right now.

SuperCycle - Bearish Corrective Phase -> Wave A
Cycle - Bullish Motive Phase -> Wave 2
Primary - Bullish Corrective Phase -> Wave E
Intermediate - Bearish Corrective Phase -> Wave C of Y
Minor - Bearish Motive Phase -> Wave 3

This means we still have potential for continuation on the downside, but there might be an opportunity for a long position trade if the primary closes as a triangle complex correction.

For my next post I'll do an analysis on trend strength, speed and momentum.
Together with price action, targets and EW probability.

We'll have a look at fundamentals and sentiment. Then put it all together in a trade plan.

Grtz