(binned per thread starter’s request) CookieMonsta's Journey Into

Still at work, took a 5mins break, guess I scalped an ice cream cone today?

Well I'm not sure I even want to label today as a winning day, the profits don't seem to even compensate my risk of max $20. I'll just tag it as breakeven I guess.

Each trade was less than 5mins or so, could have held on more, but am at work. Argh, this is screwing my results. and screwing my potential.

Man, gotta say, fti's mo is the best among all the rest I see, and also, it is a trade management mo, which means if you do fundamentals assuming you do not get biased by it, it can be added on on top of using the 3 legged animal, it can create a really powerful mo, extremely robust to loss and different terrains.

The key is to learn to feel the trend, pulse the market, once this is in place then the mm will begin to show it's real power and efficiency.

And to add on, employing the 3 legged animal can allow one to tune portfolio exposure to currency and hence volatility which can allow for even more robust management.

https://issuu.com/max.solotar/docs/hf_career_guide

Good stuff the origins of the long short book and an introduction to the various strategies employed by hedge funds.

Updated blotter, not much just abit more only.
3 legged animal in play, gbp seemed like it was trending on EURGBP so went long, while the GBPUSD charts seemed up on hourly, but down on 5mins, so spreaded out, then 1 more small rescue in GBPUSD, when 5min showed signs for rescue.
Calling it a day, it's 12am here and gbp has news release later.

Blotter for today, small scalp the real deal may come in after boc news.

Final blotter for the day.

Took a small loss in subsequent position.

That's all for the day.

Tonight EUR fundamentals, good time to day trade after the press conference is out, price action will show direction.

Today's blotter, good day.

Crap, my scorpion stung me again, gave back all my gains. Seems like my biggest issue was always wanting to rescue all situations and that is causing me problems, will have to look into this issue

Seems like the thing I'm missing now the most is consistency and dealing well with sudden term trend change rescues, will have to work on this more, did an analysis where I was looking at the mistakes I made in the pass 3 weeks, it seems that I'm 80% accurate, but the 20% is due to these kinds of terrain and I am losing alot of profits on this, and also it also points to the fact that, when I did this mistake it implies that my rescue into higher timeframe skill is not good enough, thus implying my feel for the trend is lacking in such terrains.

Will especially be keeping an eye on how I handle such situations and properly manage it.

I guess I am still not there yet.

Jiayou! Whatsapp me to exchange ideas!

sure man, haha, lets reach our goals together.

last week after losing my profits away, i took a long look at my trading results and i walked through in my mind what happened when i did the trade which took all my profits away.

then i discovered it, i was still trading very rigidly, the scorpion, was the need to rescue everything, and that scorpion induced in me the rigidity, and this particular one is rather problematic, because this one leads to death battles on a very frequent basis, which may be the reason why i can bring my money up 2x afew times in the past but i can't keep it.

i guess, now that i discovered my weakness, i can begin to fix this.

Interesting way to keep track of discretionary skill improvement.

Probably a good way to keep track of improvement to ability to feel the trend.

https://www.tradingsetupsreview.com/trading-records-discretionary-price-action-trader/

The adx indicator by Welles wilder.

My interpretation and study into the meaning of the indicator.

The interpretation of adx
If adx is slopping up and trending well, it indicates a strong trend.
If adx is slopping down, it indicates a slowing of trend
If adx is narrow fluctuation, it indicates perhaps either a slow, low volatility trend, or a slow choppy market if adx is below 25
If adx is wide fluctuation, it indicates perhaps, market is trying to trend but cannot but volatility is high.

The list goes on as this is not exhaustive as it's an art to interpret it, it's pretty much akin to pulsing the market, here you are pulsing the trendiness of the market.

The technical analysis fallacy, is the assumptions imposed on the indicator when trying to trade it. Anytime you impose hard values without understanding why or what do you actually mean when you put that value there, you have commited the technical analysis fallacy. Which is akin to crystal ball trading.

Remove the assumptions, and you will see the logic behind the maths, and what the author was trying find when writing the indicator. Perhaps a way to ask the market a question.

The adx is trying to find how trendy the market is.

It's the proper usage of it with proper technical skill which determines your success.

Note, price action and candle sticks when you come down to it, is still an indicator just that it is the 2nd most non lagging indicator aside from tic chart and depth of market and time and sales.

Note I use the daily charts to remove noise from intraday price action.

Note, most important segment of using indicator is knowing when to ignore certain segment of the data, because sometimes the market just went very strong and transiting into a range will cause the indicator to be lagging and produce erroneous data, it is an artifact of all indicators, just that for highly lagging indicators, they lag alot more. hence, knowing when not to follow or give allowance or even trade contrary to the indicator is important. This is to eliminate rigidity when using indicators. As it's the rigidity that kills when using indicators and the imposing of predictions on it which kills.

All a trader can do is attempt to follow the markets.

1 way is to use adx on daily charts then use h4 to pulse price action and trade the pullbacks or fade off depending on the markets terrain.

An example, notice eurgbp has been very choppy not just on the charts, but also on adx, the general action is that of a general range oscillation and hence, it is in a choppy range and a range bound mo would be preferred.

So this analysis tells us the terrain only, next would be selecting entry techniques.

So when the adx begin the make higher high higher low, since adx, not adx+ or adx-, has only 1 direction.

An example of the segment regarding lagging of adx Vs price action

Price action is already showing a reverse head and shoulders, adx is above 25, yet non trending range bound adx of 25.

This tells us market might be reversing. So in effects it is a non trending environment. This is what I mentioned above. That when markets are changing terrain, there will be a segment where indicators will throw out false signals. These segments require discretion to weed out, hence interpreting indicators is an art and is akin to pulsing the market.

Maybe false signals is abit of a misnomer, it is actually the fallacy which the analyst impose on which is the fallacy. In effects it is just market data calculated by a mathematical formula.

The above posts are not taught by fti, but I did study in Welles Wilders tools.

Hmm, this could be craftable into a higher tf mo, for me to circumvent my limited time to day trade, because I use the h4 and D1 charts, it could be useful for me to trade further out in time, but place my stops further away.

So it may be viable to run a 2 mo book, 1 to swing trade across days and 1 to trade the taf mo when time allows.

Interesting usdjpy seems to either be fading off or ranging, would be good to buy on a h4 pullback, momentum should be waning. Notice confluence from 3k, adx on a extended decline and is below 25 and has a lack of fluctuations.

Usdcad is flying, it's the strongest among all.
Hmm, I need to work on my ability to hold onto daily charts positions, and let them ride.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/from-theory-to-practice/episodes/the-fundamental-analysis-fallacy-08-16-2017

fundamental analysis has the same issues too, key fallacy is the assumptions imposed by the analyst.

the question is what are you analysing? answer this question and you have understood everything, and you will use all the tools differently.

key is to be nimble, nimble means being able to react to changing circumstances.

AoW: master the art of extemporaneous responses, and only way to do so is to sharpen your ability to pulse the markets.