Plan the Trade

Nice trading Thomi, nailing it...

Just revisiting yesterdays EU post and charts;



I added one later, but didn't post it. It was just to highlight the way that the 'supply & demand' boxes often move up (or down) only slightly for each pullback;



Today we completed the 5 wave cycle long and pullback to form a nice flag (as above);



I set an alert with IG for the pullback trade yesterday, which was great, except i wasn't near the screen at the time and the trade came and went without me. I also missed the entry for the flag trade earlier too. So this is pretty much a wasted exercise! ha)

I will start using limit orders now, as it should have been two winners, but then, i've only just thought about playing the hourly charts on several FX pairs when i have spare time during my days. I still intend to trade pullbacks/flags on the NQ in the evenings (GMT+2)

The UJ retraced further than i thought and killed any ideas of a nice shallow flagline, however, i now find myself in a short trade as a deep pullback after a reaction at a possible fib retracement;



I've resisted moving my stoploss just yet, so there is still slight risk on the table, but this is a small position due to the skewed R:R ratio. If it is right then the trend will continue ie - fresh lows. We will see...

I found this interesting. Of course, H will be along in due course to answer that himself, but i have noted in the past few months that i really don't do very well, when trading each individual pullback pin. I try to view them in cycles and look for only 'deep pullbacks' to retest the pinbar at the start of the move. I rely a fair bit on EW for this, but it wasn't until you asked the question that i noticed it in Harold's charts.

I still can not get anywhere near H's success, because sometimes he does take the deeper ones, but also apparently the more recent pullback pins at various other times. Incredible trading. I try to do so and lose consistently.

Here is what i mean about cycles and you can see how it compares to H's chart above;



So, my overall plan, is to treat minor pullbacks as a flag and go on the 123 trigger, when PA is really moving (typically in 3rd waves). The flagline must be at a shallow angle. At all other times, to look only for deep pullbacks...

Here is a typical example of shallow flagline and perfect 123 on the UsdCad hourly chart. Buy the break of point 2, cos it ain't coming back for a retest! Maybe we don't know that in advance, but clearly this was an impulse wave, so when i see similar i am prepared to trade it as a flag;



I've pondered over whether it is wise to have more than 1 method, but in fact, we adjust to what we see constantly as PA prints. Looking out for either a shallow pullback for a flag (or hook if you prefer), or deep retrace back to the start of prior move, shouldn't be too difficult...

Now i find myself in 2 slightly conflicting trades. Short on the UJ and short on Cable too. That's not an ideal scenario. It does suggest that the GJ should drop off a cliff!

Stop is now at BE on the UJ trade in any case.

Here is the GU chart;



It always seems so brave trying to call a turning point, other than a retracement pin. Again, small initial risk, because if it is correct, the upmove was ABC corrective and thus we will print fresh lows. Let's see. I simply can't ignore the double fib levels lining up.

The whole move long looks to me to be ABC corrective, with wave C = 161.8% of wave A and also ending at the 50% retrace level of the entire prior downmove. I would have been far happier taking this trade if the pullback was at the 61.8% level though...

Small risk, potential huge move, if correct. Let's see, but i bet one or the other trade will not stand...

the way I would see it is we came off a 123 and the 1 candle pullback was very very shallow and the next bar wasn't a great thrust bar so the 123 area seemed better the second one wasn't a pullback just and inside bar and even if you took that bar you still made money just not as much

today I will use a little different MM 20 tick target 15 tick stop 3 contracts it seems I get to 20 regularly and then it corrects so this should be ok

that was quick only if I see a no brainer I am done

9:46 -10am nice bullish trend . . .

Brilliant!)

a few more:

top work H .. what sl are you using?

20 target 15 stop I would wait a few minutes after market opens to let all the orders come in then when it slows down a little bit engage