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10,000 hours to greatness and the Mastery Asymptote

  • #121
  • Feb 9, 2018 3:53pm Feb 9, 2018 3:53pm
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It wasn't until I closed the door that I started to be profitable. Some should try it. Don't doubt the potential of your own mind.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #122
  • Mar 3, 2018 6:06pm Mar 3, 2018 6:06pm
Posted this in another thread today. Thought it might help some here.

I dare say, most traders, especially new to the scene, cannot handle a 50% win loss ratio mentally. Especially is there is a number of straight losses. Yet this is exactly what a trader needs to learn the most. I don't think you can learn it from a thread.

Reading an awesome book right now.

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She make a comparison between Chess and Poker.

You can teach a newb for 5 minutes how to play Poker and they can beat a professional Poker player for the first few hands, simply by the luck of the draw.
You cannot teach a newb how to play Chess for 5 minutes and have them beat a Grand Master. The Grand Master will ALWAYS win. Life and trading is more like Poker. Yet so many traders think trading is like Chess.

This has been an interesting book to go through. I'm sure others will find it interesting as well.

I know one trader who's winning percentage is around 40%. How would most like to lose 6 straight before winning 4. This traders target is a minimum 4R. Psychologically we are beat if we over focus on the losers and not on the process. One simple thing that may help some. If you are following your trading plan all trades that come up a loss are "Failed" trades. Not losers.

Trading and life is like Poker. As the song goes..."You gotta know when to hold 'um and know when to fold 'um. Know when to walk away and know when to run.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #123
  • Mar 3, 2018 6:09pm Mar 3, 2018 6:09pm
Quoting Rufus
Posted this in another thread today. Thought it might help some here. I dare say, most traders, especially new to the scene, cannot handle a 50% win loss ratio mentally. Especially is there is a number of straight losses. Yet this is exactly what a trader needs to learn the most. I don't think you can learn it from a thread. Reading an awesome book right now. {image} She make a comparison between Chess and Poker. You can teach a newb for 5 minutes how to play Poker and they can beat a professional Poker player for the first few hands, simply by...
Posted this link earlier in this thread.


http://player.themoth.org/#/?actionT...AY&storyId=971

Same individual that wrote the book. A great little podcast.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #124
  • Mar 3, 2018 8:58pm Mar 3, 2018 8:58pm
“Trading is Gambling”

By definition, gambling is wagering on an uncertain outcome. But there’s nothing wrong with that as most of the decision we made in life are, in a sense, “gambling” because we have no idea what the next outcome will be. We can only hope that the outcome will be as we expected ...

In trading, no matter how “good” we are in analyzing the market and having “statistically-good” trading references, each individual trade has an equal chance of becoming a winner or a loser because we can never know when the market will continue or reverse ...

So, to be successful, we need to learn how to gamble “properly” by knowing the odds first and have a predefined risk/reward before putting on a bet ... And learn how take each bet as a “Do or Die” situation ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #125
  • Mar 3, 2018 9:39pm Mar 3, 2018 9:39pm
Rufus, when always keeping in mind the Highs and the Lows, trading is far from gambling. There is nothing similar with gambling, as every new top leads (usually) to a new bottom and then, the last formed bottom will result in a new top. I hope you are intelligent enough and will understand what I mean exactly, because if you are not, first I will not explain any further on the any HL matter and second, the most important of all, you should stop trading, until you get the meaning of my post... Please do not get offended. No offence meant. Your gambling arguments are absolutely wrong when it comes to highs and lows (any)...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #126
  • Mar 3, 2018 9:49pm Mar 3, 2018 9:49pm
Quoting MoneyZilla
Rufus, when always keeping in mind the Highs and the Lows, trading is far from gambling. There is nothing similar with gambling, as every new top leads (usually) to a new bottom and then, the last formed bottom will result in a new top. I hope you are intelligent enough and will understand what I mean exactly, because if you are not, first I will not explain any further on the any HL matter and second, the most important of all, you should stop trading, until you get the meaning of my post... Please do not get offended. No offence meant. Your gambling...
No offence taken. I mean gambling to the extent that we can not 100% predict where the market will go at any given time. We place trades where the odds say or our edge says there may be a profit. I don't compare trading to roulette, slot machines or any other gambling risk where the odds are stacked against you. But games like Black Jack and Poker where skill and an understanding of odds can tip the edge in your favor.

The Market is not slot machine...
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #127
  • Mar 3, 2018 11:02pm Mar 3, 2018 11:02pm
Quoting Rufus
{image} Stoic Philosophy suits me
Quote: The Whole is always greater than the sum of its parts. Unquote.

There is not a single book or psychology or anythings out there that is truly effective to teach one to develop a complete or successful trading method on its own. One needs a synergistic approach in order to develop a truly robust trading method to overcome the market inefficiency in order to prevail in Forex. Fundamentally the 3 main criteria in that approach is:

1. To find an edge to enhance the returns of the sums invested over a consistently long period of time.
2. To find and work on the least minimum of risk in achieving that edge.
3. To optimise the best tax incentives available in their own respective country.

If your trading method covered all the 3 bases mentioned above, then the only alternative left is success.not only in Forex but also in any other financial investments one chooses.

I am just sharing my long trading experience not in the pleasures of its effectiveness but more so on lessening the pains of those who is still searching to develop or building a robust method to trade or invest. Hehe

Cheers
GS
  • #128
  • Mar 4, 2018 1:19am Mar 4, 2018 1:19am
Quoting 4for4
“Trading is Gambling” By definition, gambling is wagering on an uncertain outcome. But there’s nothing wrong with that as most of the decision we made in life are, in a sense, “gambling” because we have no idea what the next outcome will be. We can only hope that the outcome will be as we expected ... In trading, no matter how “good” we are in analyzing the market and having “statistically-good” trading references, each individual trade has an equal chance of becoming a winner or a loser because we can never know when the market will continue or...
Speculation is the proper term.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #129
  • Last Post: Mar 5, 2018 2:29am Mar 5, 2018 2:29am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} No offence taken. I mean gambling to the extent that we can not 100% predict where the market will go at any given time. We place trades where the odds say or our edge says there may be a profit. I don't compare trading to roulette, slot machines or any other gambling risk where the odds are stacked against you. But games like Black Jack and Poker where skill and an understanding of odds can tip the edge in your favor. The Market is not slot machine...
The market is just a game of buyers vs sellers. When he says highs/lows, that only means the score between them. It has nothing to do with odds. There are moments when a tug of war exists, but then one side or the other takes over. While trading looks 50-50, it is really not. Trading is the measurement of buyers and sellers and has no odds at all. It is just volume. It is like people walking down a sidewalk in two directions. If you want to profit, you go in the same direction as the majority. No odds. If you are wrong, reverse. If they are all just standing there, don't walk. Simple. The odds are in the measurement analysis, but since the vast majority of traders, 95%, do not measure buyers and sellers, then they are pretty much clueless to the simplicity of it all. They concentrate on tops and bottoms hitting lines from historical tops and bottoms of trades that are finished, lol. In other words, they determine the sidewalk is only one block long and no one will go to block two. They will simply turn around and walk back to the other end of the block, back and forth, stuck forever on the same block, lol. For the few of us measuring buyers and sellers, we are looking at the middle of the block as the people congregate and counting how many are going each direction. Then we follow the majority as far as they want to go. Then we turn around to go back to the middle and start counting again. It makes no difference if they come with us too or go home to eat and sleep and come back tomorrow, lol. We sit there until they decide to show up again, then follow them again. If they don't go back, and the crowd comes to them instead, we find a new middle and analyze from it. Big difference. While 95% of traders try to contain price, the rest of us just follow it wherever it goes. Good Luck with your theory and trading. I am a bit over 40,000 hours, so not sure what that makes me, but hopefully my advice makes sense.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
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