The Equilibrium, a key to success!

Hello dear traders,



As I wrote yesterday at point 1, I suspected goal 2 and goal 3. Now it gets a bit harder because we have a lot of different supply zones and demand zones.



The price could go down a bit, in the range of 1,224 I suspect a demand zone that could push the price down to the green line. There we have a stronger supply zone again. That could be the decisive factor to follow the trend further down.

At the green lower resistance zone, the price is likely to increase again and then continue down the path. As always, this is pure speculation; supply and demand zones are constantly changing as a result of the current price trend. Therefore, a prospect for this long time is difficult.

I wish you a successful day.

best regards

Hello Bionik,
Scenario in M5?

Hello Skipper13,

if you trace the lines on your 1H chart as in my chart image and then switch to the 5 minute chart, it should work.

Best regards

Hello Bionik,
I tried to find some old Equilibrium from 2010, please ask for correction

Hello Skipper13,

you make it too hard for you. But that's always the case in the beginning and completely normal.



Before you look for the Equilibrium, take a look at the market. Where is a supply market and where is there a demand market? After that, the question is how far did the demand market or the supply market go?

Look at the strong demand zone at point 1. How far did she go? Up to the blue line. Now to point 2. There we had a strong supply zone. How far did she go? Until again a strong demand zone came. That's exactly what I had marked yesterday. How far does the course go up in the first step? Until he comes back into a strong supply zone. Just look where the zones are and then look for the Equilirium in those zones.

That will be fine.

best regards

Hello Bionik,

Thanks, I work and study. I think I understand slowly

Interesting statics



The chance of being struck by lightning is 1: 3,000,000. The chance to crack the jackpot at Powerball is 1: 293 million. So before I hit the jackpot, I'll be hit by lightning almost 100 times before.

So let's talk about Trading.

According to many opinions in the Forex market, only 5% of all traders should trade successfully. If this number is correct this means: 95% of all traders are wrong. The chance that you yourself belong to the 95% is relatively larger than that counts to the 5% of good traders. But now to belong to the 5% in the future, there would be an easy way. If you want to trade the GBP / JPY now, you would have to hear the opinion of 100 traders on this currency pair. 90% say the price goes up and 10% say the price falls.

Theoretically, one would have to sell now, since here the probability is greater to win. It is only stupid if the 100 traders are among the 5% who trade successfully. But the likelihood seems very low in this case.

One thing I can say with certainty:

If I hear from the taxi driver buying a particular stock because it's going off really well, I have to go home quickly and sell that stock as fast as possible.
And maybe that's our big problem, we trust others more than ourselves. So it's time to build one's faith in oneself. I think if people listened more to their intuition, there would be a lot less loss. 10% of all people are really successful and who are we listening to? On the remaining 90%. How do you want to be successful with it.

Here at Forex Factory there are very successful traders. The chance to find them is 5%. The chance to win the main prize in Powerball is 0.0000000034%. The chance to find a successful trader here is 1,500,000,000 times more likely. That should motivate us.

Let's reckon. FF has 480,000 members. That would be 24,000 people who would successfully trade if everyone were active. Even if we subtract half, there are still 12,000 successful traders left. So we search and learn from these successful people. It can only help us.

In this sense

A successful day

best regards

and I found one of these successful dealers and follow him

Hello skipper,

that's great. To learn and to put his learned knowledge into practice is always like swimming against the tide. Anyone who swimming against the current needs more power than the one who lets himself be carried away by the current. Only dead fish swim with the stream. Do you follow the swarm or do you dare to determine the direction of your own style of trading? To swim against the current needs courage, but with every meter you get, you will gain strength and be proud of what you have already achieved. The fact is, we humans usually tend to adapt to society. We want to meet the expectations of our environment. Those who swim against the current are often suspiciously eyed. It is gossiped, doubted and everyone has, open or not, an opinion on it. Everyone seems to know what is good for others in life. You just have to dare to do it differently from the people around you. I am not going the path of least resistance, but the path that seems most precious to me, the most liveable.

In this sense
best regards

Hello Bionik,

I have not decided to go against the tide and my results today prove me right, thanks to you.
I wish you a relaxing weekend and I look forward to the next week

Hello Skipper13,

have a nice weekend, too

best regards

Hello dear traders,

briefly again a summary of my forecast from 1 March and the fine forecast of this morning.



The prognosis was the orange lines. At the the point start we started. The first resistance line was well hit, the forecast for point 2 also ran smoothly. The setback to point 3 was not quite hit, but point 4.

You see, that's not 100%, but I got a good 3 out of 4 points.

That's why it's so important to always keep an eye on supply and demand.

Have a good weekend
best regards

This result is very impressive, I wish them a peaceful weekend and thank you very much for their willingness to give Greenhorns like me the right feeling for trading.
94 pips profit in one day with your strategy is a big deal for me.

Hello Skipper13,

It's not bad to be a student, a professor once told me: To be successful, you must remain an eternal student and learn, study and learn. Do you know what makes your success? You are ready to learn, to make your thoughts out of it and to enter the market with your own set rules. With that, you are not a greenhorn, but you are many years ahead of most traders. And I can assure you, it will get much better over time. With the system supply and demand you buy in the market when most sell and sell when most buy. But you stand on the side of the big players and that's the big difference.

best regards

Hello Bionik,

I have drawn only the supply and demand lines in the M15

Hello Skipper13,

that looks very good.



I also think that we could now go down more, the red zone shows a strong supply market. In the green zone is the demand, which still needs to be served.



I've made a sketch, but we could start with a bigger gap and I'd rather wait and see how the Asian market reacts on Sunday and Monday to Friday. On Monday morning I have to take a closer look, so this sketch with reserve.

I wish you a nice weekend


Additional contribution on 04.03.2018 11:00

The SPD has agreed to a grand coalition. The government will be start in March. If the grand coalition had failed, it would have made the dollar stronger and confirmed the downward trend. I am curious to see how this news will be received in Asia and the start will be in London on Monday morning.

Have a good weekend

Concrete guidance of supply and demand



Dear Traders,

There are 3 different states in the market.
1. Offer outweighs the demand = price drops
2. Demand outweighs the offer = price rises
3. Offer and demand are balanced



Your see that 5 M chart in EURUSD. In the last 6 hours, the price has risen and after fallen again. What will happen next? Where is the course going? Where will he change the trend direction? Where is the best way to get started? How can you make over 100 pip in the next 6 hours? How do I keep my risk as small as possible? How can I optimize my profits?

I would like to answer these questions in this post.



Let's start analyzing the chart. The first question is where does offer dominate demand and where does demand dominate offer?
Point 1: Equilibrium is created, the course falls short and then rises. From the second line, where the long bullish candle starts, demand dominates offer. That means there are more buyers than sellers in this area.

The course runs to point 2 and a larger equilibrium arises. In principle, this are two equilibrium. In the first lower circle you can see a balance, then the course increases. After that, a balance is created and the price rises more. The course runs to point 3. There is a balance again, then a small reset and a small move to the top. At point 4 there is again an equilibrium, which is difficult to recognize due to the time unit. Then the course falls to point 5. Again, an equilibrium is formed. The course continues to point 6. There we stand now. The question is, what's next?



We have identified the most important equilibrium and now draw a line above and below the equilibrium. Here again we see in the overview where offer or demand dominates. The course has penetrated from above into our demand zone. That means here wait buyers to push up the price. We have marked two demand zones here. For me, the lower zone (upper line) would be the first choice, because from there the demand has started.



The price rises a little and falls right into the lower demand zone. The buyers jump up and bring the course up to the offer zone. This pushes the course down again, because not all sellers were satisfied. The price falls into the upper demand zone, the buyers absorb the sellers and the price rises. As soon as it comes back into the offer zone the price goes back again briefly, but now all sell orders are out of the market and the price can rise unhindered. There are two offer zones up there, the course is in the first zone. What is happening next?



The course is falling back. How far does he fall back? Until he comes to the zone where there are no sellers anymore. You remember that buyers in this zone had absorbed all sell orders. What will happen if you know that there are no sellers left in the zone?



Just right, the course has to rise. How far does the course go? Up to the zone where offer dominates demand. That's where the course is now. What happens when you know that this zone is a strong offer zone? The course must fall. How far will the course fall? Answer: Until he comes back into a strong demand zone. And where is our strongest demand zone?



Exactly right, where it all started. In between, the course has put down a small pullback again, just take a look at where the pullback took place. Critics will say: That's all coincidence. I say: this has to do with offer, demand and balance and that is no coincidence but these are the laws of the market.



I have drawn the zones once in rose for a better overview. Altogether that was 4 trades. There are 3 small lines. The red is the stop, the green the start order and the blue the take profit. You can work with limit orders or manual orders. I usually prefer the limit order because it gives me better market access.

The first trade brought in 26.6 pip at 4 pip risk = risk reward ratio 1: 7
The long trade brought 15.8 pip at 3 pip risk = risk reward ratio 1: 5
The third trade brought 21.5 pip at 5 pip risk = risk reward ratio 1: 4
The fourth trade brought 46.4 pip at 3 pip risk = risk reward ratio 1:15

As the fourth Tarde went down, it could be assumed that he would start another pullback in Zone 1. I would have let the trade go anyway. If a candle had formed over my zone 2, I would have dropped out. Altogether that would have been 110 pip with a risk of 15 pip. A risk reward ratio of 1: 7 in 6 hours.
The interesting thing is that I would have held the fourth trade even longer. Why?



The answer can be found in the overview in the 4 H chart. Just look at the zones according to the criteria mentioned above. From Zone 1, demand dominated offer. After that the course fell back and broke through this zone. He formed an equilibrium and from the point 2 dominated the offer again. Then the course came back up. From point 3 the demand dominated. Our zone was still fresh, which means the course has not yet arrived in our zone. In the big circle where the blue arrow is in the 5 minute chart is our last course. That's why I would have kept the course going. Although there was a stronger pullback later on the way down, however, this pullback came back exactly into our designated zone. You can take a closer look at it yourself. What do you think is going to happen to the course when it comes to the bottom zone at the right green arrow?



It will rise because the demand zone is very strong. The course has risen sharply, then Friday was evening and closing time. On Sunday evening, a big gap of 180 pip. Where did the Gap go? Up to our Zone 5. Of course, nobody could have foreseen that. But you could have taken the pullback well to point 6.
By the way, look at point 2, and then at point 1 and point 0. What is noticeable? Equilibrium then high course, back through our zone 1 to point 3. Then new Equilibrium and further down. That means we could already guess where a strong offer zone prevails.

Is that still a coincidence? Maybe, but I use these coincidences regularly to live from it. How many indicators did we use here? How many messages have we heard in this time? Indicators and news are important, but more important are the price charts and your personally marked zones.

Start by the way, draw in these zones. Look at when demand dominates the offer and look for the Equilibrium. Look at when the offer dominates the demand and look for the Equilibrium. Then record these lines and observe how the course behaves there.
I'm sure you'll get on with it.

I wish you could use this information effectively for you.

I wish you a successful week.

Best regards

Hello Bionik,

Thank you very much for your analysis, I am slowly starting to enjoy it and gain a completely different insight into the processes.

Klaus

Hello Klaus,

I am very glad for two reasons. First, because as a beginner who has already tried a lot, you have now found a successful system. And second, because I was able to contribute a little. Helping other traders and helping themselves was the reason why I came to this forum. When I published my first article here at FF in January 2018, I quickly realized that practice and theory in forex is greater than many other things in everyday life.

If you trade for many years, most processes will expire automatically. You do not even think about why you are entering the trade now, you are acting intuitively based on your experience. FF added a very important factor for me. Doing something yourself that you do for many years is easy. But if you start to explain the other, it will be much more difficult. The supreme discipline: what you are good at, so explaining that someone else will succeed.

The big challenge lies in communication. There are different cultures, languages and, unfortunately, many vanities that prevent some people from succeeding. It is often about being better than the other.

Said does not mean that the other has understood it.
If the other person understands, that does not mean that he do it.
If the other do it, that does not mean that he do it continuously.
But only the continuous application leads to success. And that is exactly the challenge.

Earlier, when I started trading, I thought that I needed to find just the right indicator to succeed. So I went in search. Every time I installed a new indicator in the chart I was motivated and convinced. But after that time, I realized that it was not the right one and kept searching. That's how it went for many years.
Until I realized that I have not seen the forest for the trees. The best indicator is the pure price chart. The problem is that it is incredibly difficult and time-consuming to understand and interpret this pure price discourse. The stock market is not easy and you have to be aware, if you want to act successfully, that the effort to learn this profession is enormously high. Being a trader is one of the most demanding jobs in the world. And that's why one day it became clear to me that you can not just upload an indicator and the profits are already flowing.

The price charts are their own language such as C ++, Java or even mq4. To understand the languages you have to learn them. But only the regular application brings the success. This can be confirmed by successful programmers like Hanover, Nicholishen, MathTrader7, cja and many more.

Indicators help translate the price charts into a language that we traders understand more easily. Therefore, I also use indicators, but no standard indicators such as MACD, RSI or Stochasic.

Another challenge is long-term forecasting. When I predict the supply, demand and balance as a trader, this forecast is often changed by a new trend. Therefore, forecasts should be viewed with caution.

Your own prognosis should be your recipe for success in the long term. Therefore, we must be willing to learn more than others. My contributions here should not help to derive a trade, but to understand the principle of supply, demand and balance. If I get a tip from FF and handle it, maybe I'll win once. But maybe I do not understand why I won. The key is to understand why you lose and why you win. And that works only if I deal with the system correctly.

I wish a lot of success

best regards
Michael

Hi Michael,
Thank you very much for your words. I can say that I can fully agree with them.
It has always been my desire to have a chart that is not overloaded with indicators and that clearly tells me how to trade. This indicator, jender indicator, I can confirm everything, has brought nothing.
But now, with their help, I see much clearer. I still have a lot to practice and learn, but it's fun.
I will still go to the Tradae too early, get out too late, take profits too early, and run losses too long. But I am sure that this will not take place to the same extent as before.
In the meantime, I see the chart in a different light and think about what I see. Previously, the indicator thought for me and most of the time wrong.
I'm sure I'll wonder why the course is going in the wrong direction right now, when all the parameters have been right, but then I can get to the bottom of things in the past and find the mistake.
I'm sure next week will be able to post one or the other chart with boarding.
With this in mind, I wish you a successful week.
Klaus