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95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

  • #121
  • Feb 27, 2018 11:18am Feb 27, 2018 11:18am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} We have a saying in the West: We don't give a shit about Iran. Sorry, my bad... it's a bad joke
your level of fluency in English language makes me doubt that you are really from the west. either that or you are really illiterate. or maybe a child!
  • #122
  • Feb 27, 2018 11:58am Feb 27, 2018 11:58am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} I figured he understood and was just acting pompous. Then I realized he's using 1000:1 leverage. Sort of a buzzkill when you look at his returns.
Actually he is only averaging losses.
It is risky because someday the big trend would come with no reversals and it would blow the account. No big deal until you do hundreds percents of profits and manage to withdraw it on time.
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  • #123
  • Feb 27, 2018 12:04pm Feb 27, 2018 12:04pm
Quoting John.Doe
{quote} Actually he is only averaging losses. It is risky because someday the big trend would come with no reversals and it would blow the account. No big deal until you do hundreds percents of profits and manage to withdraw it on time. {image}
It is what it is. I average losses as well a lot of the time; it makes trading a little more entertaining than waiting for near-perfect entries. As long as you exit on time then it is indeed no big deal.

I caught two big changes this month(both while I was working and while sleeping); took massive hits from being unable to exit on time. As long as you're there to exit then it's all good. By 'losses' I obviously don't mean actual losses just dips... And I don't use 1000:1 leverage.

It all comes out in the wash.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #124
  • Feb 27, 2018 1:24pm Feb 27, 2018 1:24pm
Quoting Ed Seykota
The elements of good trading are (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.
Not cutting losses and particularly adding to losing trades, bring you deeply into the “loss hemisphere” of trade management. These two practices are some of key reasons of loss of retail traders as a whole. They should be avoided like the plague.
Cheers,
k
  • #125
  • Feb 27, 2018 3:10pm Feb 27, 2018 3:10pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} We have a saying in the West: We don't give a shit about Iran. Sorry, my bad... it's a bad joke
is Vietnam in the west?
  • #126
  • Feb 27, 2018 3:44pm Feb 27, 2018 3:44pm
Quoting alphadude
{quote} is Vietnam in the west?
He is not from Vietnam.


-Catholic mother
-English speaking parents
-he likes to play basketball

There is one country in Asia which suits to these points.
  • #127
  • Feb 27, 2018 4:40pm Feb 27, 2018 4:40pm
Quoting John.Doe
{quote} He is not from Vietnam. -Catholic mother -English speaking parents -he likes to play basketball There is one country in Asia which suits to these points.
Can't be Japan. I looked at one of their major cities in Google Earth(never visited). They had to have had like 80 fucking baseball fields within 5 miles along a river. We don't even do that kind of crazy shit here in America. Except maybe in Texas where they probably have one giant 5-mile long baseball field. But that's Texas and they've never really been alright in the head.

Also can't be South Korea... Have you seen those women? I have no idea how any man could sit in front of a computer all day and stay focused with ladies like that walking around outside.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #128
  • Edited 8:09pm Feb 27, 2018 7:49pm | Edited 8:09pm
Quoting kprsa
Not cutting losses and particularly adding to losing trades, bring you deeply into the “loss hemisphere” of trade management. These two practices are some of key reasons of loss of retail traders as a whole. They should be avoided like the plague.
Agreed.

For me, a key question is: if price is starting to move in a certain direction (up or down), whether it is more likely to continue moving in that direction, or reverse. (This is of course a generalisation, and direction can depend on the trader's timeframe/perspective). However, to whatever extent 'levy flight' exists, continuation becomes a higher probability than reversal, making it a better option to buy while price is rising and sell while it's falling; and hence leave any winning positions open and close losing positions forthwith (as, everything else being equal, price is more likely to move further against you). Just as you conclude.

'Levy flight' is one factor that provides a qualitative difference between actual price behavior, and simulated charts created by a random number generator (where any 'trends' are an illusion and statistically irrelevant). Whereas 'trends' on live price charts may be caused by 'non-random' factors like (for example) macroeconomic drift, large players attempting to drive price toward their profit goals, market makers looking to push price toward zones of high liquidity, enthusiastic traders attempting to catch a move (that's perhaps been precipitated by significant news), price moving more freely through a vacuum, price moving toward an (institutional) consensus of perceived 'value', etc etc. To whatever extent these price swings exceed the parameters that define a random walk, it's theoretically possible to profit from them.
__________________________

Quoting John.Doe
-Catholic mother -English speaking parents -he likes to play basketball There is one country in Asia which suits to these points.
ang aking asawa ay ipinanganak sa isang bansa na nakakatugon sa lahat ng iyong pamantayan.
  • #129
  • Feb 27, 2018 8:09pm Feb 27, 2018 8:09pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Agreed. For me, a key question is: if price is starting to move in a certain direction (up or down), whether it is more likely to continue moving in that direction, or reverse. (This is of course a generalisation, and direction can depend on the trader's timeframe/perspective). However, to whatever extent 'levy flight' exists, continuation becomes a higher probability than reversal, making it a better option to buy while price is rising and sell while it's falling; and hence leave any winning positions open and close losing positions...
I came across a quote from a trader(he was just explaining it casually) that an edge can be anything that a trader identifies in the market that isn't random. Spend enough time watching the market and you start to identify pretty easily when the market's just doing a 'random' walk and when it isn't. You can even profit from the 'random' walks by identifying anomalies within them.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #130
  • Feb 27, 2018 8:12pm Feb 27, 2018 8:12pm
@hanover:
Price is always more likely to proceed in the direction where it is already going, the reason is as you mention, the fat-tailed distribution of returns.
A good strategy, with these three elements (cut losses, let profits run, buy when up/sell when down) reduces to delineating the up/down for taking profit (higher tf), up/down for entry (lower tf), and perhaps any fundamental input one wishes to season with.
(I found that just the relationship between price and simple lines on the screen give a pretty good idea on whether the trend is about to continue or not. I can even see “mispricing” - very overbought/oversold areas which technically break the trend, but since the pullback is not “serious” by itself, the situation resolves itself by an impulse return back to the trend.)
Cheers,
k
  • #131
  • Feb 27, 2018 8:14pm Feb 27, 2018 8:14pm
Quoting Redeflect
an edge can be anything that a trader identifies in the market that isn't random.
That would be my definition also; it ultimately comes down to exploiting vagaries in liquidity (even if traders are oblivious to this), as it's differences in buying and selling volumes that ultimately drive the market. Of course the edge needs to be big enough, on balance, to overcome costs (spread, slippage etc).

Quoting kprsa
A good strategy, with these three elements (cut losses, let profits run, buy when up/sell when down) reduces to delineating the up/down for taking profit (higher tf), up/down for entry (lower tf), and perhaps any fundamental input one wishes to season with.
Yes, makes good sense to me.
  • #132
  • Edited 8:34pm Feb 27, 2018 8:18pm | Edited 8:34pm
Quoting hanover
{quote}That would be my definition also; it ultimately comes down to exploiting vagaries in liquidity (even if traders are oblivious to this), as it's differences in buying and selling volumes that ultimately drive the market. Of course the edge needs to be big enough, on balance, to overcome costs (spread, slippage etc). {quote} Yes, makes good sense to me.
Well, it's a good thing for those oblivious traders that an "On Balance Volume" indicator exists.

I keep a collection of mostly redundant indicators on my mobile chart for convenience; a simple MA with a series of PSARs, a series of ATRs, a series of Williams Percent Ranges with an Awesome Oscillator, and a volume indicator with an On Balance Volume indicator. Usually I'm ignoring them but they're convenient when I haven't looked at the charts in a while.



My computer has a much more specialized and specific toolkit that I prefer not to share.
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"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #133
  • Feb 27, 2018 8:32pm Feb 27, 2018 8:32pm
Quoting Redeflect
Well, it's a good thing for those oblivious traders that an "On Balance Volume" indicator exists.
There are some more advanced volume indicators in some of the VSA and PVSRA threads. I was pleasantly surprised to find how well local broker tick volume could be used as a proxy for unknown volume in a decentralised market. FWIW I use the 'Better Volume' indicators (e.g. here) to highlight climax volume on M15 charts. Probably not the way they were intended to be used optimally, as I haven't studied VSA in any great depth, but I nonetheless find it to be a useful piece of the puzzle. Of course the next stage beyond this is the NOFT/footprint charts that some of the institutional guys use, which give a picture of the order books in the futures markets (see links here for examples).
  • #134
  • Feb 27, 2018 9:10pm Feb 27, 2018 9:10pm
Quoting 3litetrader
{quote} your level of fluency in English language makes me doubt that you are really from the west. either that or you are really illiterate. or maybe a child!
Hi Sir,
You have the most transparent and honest TE I have seen in FF.
Just on this merit alone, you are worthy of my utmost respect and admiration.
May you remain happy, healthy and prosperous always.

Cheers
GS
  • #135
  • Edited 10:08pm Feb 27, 2018 9:58pm | Edited 10:08pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Hi Sir, You have the most transparent and honest TE I have seen in FF. Just on this merit alone, you are worthy of my utmost respect and admiration. May you remain happy, healthy and prosperous always. Cheers GS
What's a dishonest TE look like? Does it have a custom start date?
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #136
  • Feb 27, 2018 10:00pm Feb 27, 2018 10:00pm
Quoting John.Doe
{quote} He is not from Vietnam. -Catholic mother -English speaking parents -he likes to play basketball There is one country in Asia which suits to these points.
The Philippines.
  • #137
  • Feb 27, 2018 11:16pm Feb 27, 2018 11:16pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} What's a dishonest TE look like? Does it have a custom start date?
Sorry Sir,
Yes I missed yours too. Good job. Respect to your T/E.
Cheers
  • #138
  • Feb 27, 2018 11:25pm Feb 27, 2018 11:25pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Sorry Sir, Yes I missed yours too. Good job. Respect to your T/E. Cheers
Thank you, but I was inquiring if you were being sarcastic about his since the first 2 weeks of it are missing.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #139
  • Feb 27, 2018 11:33pm Feb 27, 2018 11:33pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} Thank you, but I was inquiring if you were being sarcastic about his since the first 2 weeks of it are missing.
No bro, I don't see trading result but transparency in presenting the facts as it is. Win or loss is not so important to me cos it is normal in trading. Honesty is the best virtue. Nobody can pretend to make money when it is not no matter what is said or half shown.

Take care and cheers
GS
  • #140
  • Feb 28, 2018 1:02am Feb 28, 2018 1:02am
Not bad, first time tried. in 2 hours. gbpusd sell 7 pips, euraud sell 12 pips, eurusd sell 11 pips. Thanks and
Regards
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