Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2018/0...hology-to.html

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2mTxc0vQT...rettQuote3.jpg
Here is a series of TraderFeed posts that look at valuable market indicators and the psychology of making best use of them:
* Identifying When Markets Are Changing



Lessons in Trading and Psychology - 1: Regime Changes
https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-mwORgVaDE...TICK020218.jpg
In this series of posts, we'll look at ways of integrating trading psychology and the process of trading. It is my hope that the series will illustrate the richness of the relationship between trading and psychology--a depth rarely captured in traditional writings on the topic.

Here we see a chart of SPY (blue line; 5 minute values) from December 15th through this past Friday, February 2nd. In red, we see a 2-hour moving average of NYSE TICK values over that same period. Recall that this measure captures the number of stocks trading on upticks minus the number trading on downticks at each moment of the trading day. The symbol is $TICK on the e-Signal platform and most others

Note that for a good part of the first half of the chart, the NYSE TICK values stayed above the zero line. As SPY moved higher, we saw evidence of buying strength: more stocks trading on upticks than downticks. Look, however, what happened in the second half of the chart. The distribution of TICK values shifted and we now saw more selling pressure than buying pressure--even as SPY moved to all time highs.

In other words, the psychology of the market changed--we shifted from a buying regime to a selling one--well before SPY made its recent correction. The change in the distribution of TICK values alerted us to market vulnerability.

Here is an analogy: suppose the economy of the U.S. is quite strong in large urban areas of the east and west coasts, but weak everywhere else. A company's sales continue to rise, but when management looks at the distribution of sales, they see that fewer and fewer regions are holding up the rest. An alert management would not be high-fiving over record earnings. They would be reducing production and shifting the product mix to prepare for potential economic downturn.

The psychological takeaway is that we need to drill down and look beneath the market surface and approach each fresh set of data with an open mind. On the day we made a peak in SPY, we had 599 stocks make fresh three month highs and 199 register new monthly lows. Two weeks before that, we had almost 900 new three month highs against 135 lows (data from Barchart.com). The open mind respects price action and market strength, but also is alert to cracks beneath the surface. Then, when price can no longer sustain new highs, volatility increases, and TICK readings become very negative, that alertness allows for a quick transition to the new regime.

You have to have the right information, and you have to have the right mindset of openness. That is an important way that trading and psychology come together to create success.
Further Reading:

NYSE TICK as a Useful Trading Tool

TraderFeed Home Page and Menu

* Using Volume to Understand Market Moves

* Trading Intraday Market Reversals

* Adjusting Your Trading for Market Volatility

* Tracking and Trading Cycles in the Market


TraderFeed Home Page and Index
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Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.at 8:31 AM

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...chain-reaction

PLEASE READ CAREFULLY - IT WILL BE THE FUTURE - UNDERSTAND and BE AWARE - THEN YOU HAVE AN EDGE !!!


Benjaminis: Have a Great Trading Day !!!

Authored by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World blog,
Central bankers seem to think that adjusting interest rates is a nice little tool that they can easily handle. The problem is that higher interest rates affect the economy in many ways simultaneously. The lessons that seem to have been learned from past rate hikes may not be applicable today.

Furthermore, there can be quite a long time lag involved. Thus, by the time a central banker starts seeing an effect, it may be clear that the amount of the interest rate change is far too large.

A recent Zerohedge article seems to suggest that problems can arise with 10-year Treasury interest rates of less of than 3%. We may be facing a period of declining acceptable interest rates.

https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpre...pg?w=640&h=333

Figure 1. Chart from The Scariest Chart in the Market.
Let’s look at a few of the issues involved:
[1] The standard reason for raising interest rates seems to be concern about inflationary impacts occurring as a result of rising food and energy prices. In practice, the impact of such an interest rate change can be quite severe and quite delayed.

Figure 2 is an illustration from the Bureau of Labor Statistics website showing one of today’s concerns: rising energy costs. Food prices are not yet rising. Normally, however, if oil prices rise, the cost of producing food will also rise. This happens because modern agricultural methods and transportation to markets both require the use of petroleum products.

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Figure 2. Figure created by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showing percentage change in the Consumer Price Index between January 2017 and January 2018, for selected categories.

In fact, raising short-term interest rates seems to have been associated with trying to bring down rising food and energy costs, as early as the 1970s and early 1980s.
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Figure 3. US three-month treasury interest rates. Chart prepared by St. Louis Federal Reserve.
The reason why an increase in short-term interest rates is helpful is because it reliably induces a recession. A person can see the close connection between short-term interest rate increases and recessions (gray bars) in Figure 3. Recessions in turn damp down food and energy prices.

The reason why this damping down effect occurs is because when there is a recession, many people are laid off from work. These people purchase fewer goods and services. With people out of work, “demand” for goods and services falls. (Demand is very closely related to “amount affordable.”) We might think of demand for goods and services as helping to maintain the “production” of new homes, new cars, upscale food products, toys, and even consulting services.

When demand falls, fewer goods of practically every type are made. This indirectly leads to less need for commodities of many types, including oil, natural gas, metals, and food. Commodities have very long production cycles, and only modest storage facilities. When lower demand for a commodity such as oil occurs, prices tend to adjust sharply downward, in order to signal the need for lower production. Figure 4 shows that interest rate spikes corresponded to the 1973-1974 oil price spike, the 1979 oil price spike, the 2004-2008 price run-up, and perhaps to other shorter oil price spikes.
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Figure 4. Annual averages of Brent oil prices (in 2016$) and 3-month average interest rates, based on data similar to that shown in Figure 3 from “FRED.”
The annual data in Figure 4 loses the detail of month-to-month variations. Because of this, it makes the impact of the Great Recession look much less severe than it really was. Figure 5, using monthly data for recent periods, shows more clearly the severe fall in oil prices following the run-up in short-term interest rates in the 2004-2007 period.
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Figure 5. Three-month US Treasury interest rates and Brent oil prices, both on a monthly average basis. Graph by FRED.
If a person looks at the indirect impacts on the economy as a whole, it becomes clear that the rise in short-term interest rates was one of the proximate causes of the Great Recession of 2008-2009. I talk about this in Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. The minutes of the June 2004 Federal Reserve Open Market Committee indicate that the committee decided to start raising interest rates at a rate of 0.25% per quarter for the purpose of stopping the rise in energy and food prices.

The huge financial problems that indirectly resulted did not occur until four years later, in 2008. It is likely that most economists are unaware of the connection between the decision to raise rates back in 2004 and the Great Recession several years later.


[2] Higher energy prices squeeze a person’s “spendable income.” Higher interest rates have the same effect.
Economist James Hamilton showed that ten out of eleven recent recessions were associated with oil price shocks. We would argue that if an economy is subject to higher interest rates in addition to higher oil prices, the economy is doubly likely to go into recession. Figure 6 shows an illustration of the situation.
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Figure 6. Image by author showing recessionary impact of rising energy costs and interest costs.
A wage earner’s pay does not normally increase as energy costs rise, or as interest costs rise. Even if energy and interest costs are well buried (in higher food costs, or in the higher cost of goods transported across the country, or in higher student loan payments) the amount of income that a person has available to spend on discretionary goods and services falls if energy and interest costs rise. Having both energy and interest costs take a bigger share of available income at the same time is especially a problem.

[3] Reduced interest rates can be used to conceal the adverse impact of rising energy prices.
This is another version of what we saw in Figure 6. If interest rates can be reduced, they can offset most of the bad impacts of higher energy prices. For example, if oil prices are higher, it helps if auto loans and mortgages loans are lower in cost.
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Figure 7. Image by author showing that artificially low interest rates can mostly offset the impact of rising energy costs.
Of course, central bankers don’t necessarily think this through. To what extent is today’s economy really dependent on very low interest rates?
[4] Falling interest rates have an almost magical impact on the economy. Rising interest rates reverse these magical impacts, and replace them with very negative impacts.

We saw in Figure 6 how falling interest rates could more or less conceal a rise in energy prices. The following are a few of the additional magical things that falling interest rates can do:
(a) Falling interest can raise asset prices of many kinds, including homes, stock prices, resale prices of bonds, and the price of land.
(b) Falling interest rates can raise commodity prices, making it possible to extract more fossil fuels and metals. Resources that previously did not look economic to extract, suddenly become economic to extract. This change occurs because with lower interest rates, more people can afford to purchase goods that use oil, such as cars and motorcycles. This tends to raise demand for oil products, and thus prices.
(c) Because higher-priced energy extraction becomes feasible at lower interest rates, more advanced technology, at higher prices, suddenly becomes feasible. Jobs open up in research areas that would not previously have made sense at lower energy prices.
(d) Falling interest rates can make the balance sheets of companies holding stocks and bonds as assets look better, because of their rising prices.
(e) Rising asset prices “feed back” into spendable income. People with homes that have risen in value can refinance, and use the proceeds to fix up their home (add an additional room or an updated kitchen, for example). Individual citizens and companies can sell shares of stock that have risen in value and use those proceeds to augment other income.


If interest rates rise rather than fall, the impacts can be expected to be extremely recessionary. The stock market may crash. Homes are likely to lose value because of a lack of buyers that can afford them. Energy resources that seemed to be available can suddenly seem not to be feasible because of low prices.


[5] The economy was able to reasonably tolerate the run-up in interest rates in the 1950 – 1980 period because the economy was growing very rapidly.
A person can see the pattern of short-term interest rates in Figure 3, above. Long-term (10-year) interest rates follow a somewhat similar, but smoother, pattern (Figure 8).
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpre...ng?w=640&h=258


Figure 8. Monthly average 10-year Treasury interest rates, through January 2018, in chart by FRED.

World per capita energy consumption was rising very rapidly in the 1950 to 1970 period. Even in the troubled 1970 to 1980 period, per capita energy consumption continued to rise, although not as quickly (Figure 9).
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Figure 9. World per capita energy consumption, with 1950-1980 period of rapid growth highlighted. World Energy Consumption by Source, based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects (Appendix) together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent, divided by population estimates by Angus Maddison.


When world per capita energy consumption is growing this rapidly, jobs tend to be plentiful and wages tend to rise faster than inflation. According to Figure 10, US wages rose more rapidly than inflation in the 1950 to 1970 period, without wage disparity becoming a problem. Even in the 1970 to 1980 period, when high oil prices were a problem, US wages were able to rise quickly enough to keep up with inflation. Rising wage disparity did not become a problem until after 1980.
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Figure 10. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Amounts are inflation adjusted. Based on an analysis of IRS data, published in Forbes.

The share of US citizens in the workforce also rose during the period up to 1980, as an increasing percentage of women joined the workforce (Figure 11).
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Figure 11. Employment as a percentage of the population, aged 25-54. Chart from FRED, using OECD amounts.
The thing that made the 1950-1970 period unusual was the growing availability of inexpensive fossil fuels. With fossil fuels, it was possible to add expressways where they had never been before. This allowed more interstate trade and improved the productivity of truck drivers. Labor saving devices allowed women to join the workforce. Farming continued to become more productive, with all of its labor saving equipment. Even as energy prices rose in the 1970 to 1980 period, citizens were able to continue to buy energy products because their wages were rising enough to keep up with inflation.

The growth in productivity was so great that wages plus government benefits (as measured by “Disposable Personal Income”) rose almost too fast. This added inflationary pressures to the economy. It is my opinion that these inflationary pressures contributed greatly to the oil price run-up in the 1973-1974 and the 1979-1981 periods.
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Figure 12. Three-year average growth in Disposable Personal Income compared to inflation as measured by CPI-Urban. DPI from US Bureau of Economic Analysis; CPI from Bureau of Labor Statistics. Per Capita Disposable Personal Income is calculated by dividing DPI by US population, also from the BEA.
The run-up in oil prices also to some extent reflected a scarcity problem; note the two spikes in CPI-Urban in the 1970s in Figure 12, which are higher than would be expected, if the problem were simply a problem caused by the very high per capita Disposable Personal Income growth.
A major problem of the 1970s was a decline in US crude oil production for the area outside Alaska.
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Figure 13. US crude oil production by type, based on EIA data.
This scarcity problem was significantly mitigated by the development of oil fields in Alaska, Mexico, and the North Sea in the next few years.
One of the things that substantially helped fix the oil problems of the 1970s was the fact that the US, as well as other developed countries, was able to make changes that substantially reduced their oil consumption. These changes included:

1. Moving to smaller, more fuel-efficient cars
2. Finding fuel substitutes when oil was being used being burned to create electricity
3. Changing oil-based home heating to approaches that used other fuels

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Figure 14. Oil consumption by part of the world. Data from BP Statistical Report of World Energy 2017.
The combination of these approaches brought supply and demand more into balance. There was small dip in consumption in the 1973-1975 period, and a larger dip in the 1979 to 1984 period. In comparison, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 hardly made a dent.
An indirect impact of these changes was the fact that the US economy needed to become more integrated into the world market. The US started importing smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles from Japan, since Japan was already making these cars. Japan started making other kinds of goods as well to sell to the US and other markets. The US and other countries built nuclear electric generation to replace some of the oil-fired electricity generation. These plants were capital intensive and required growing debt.


Especially after 1981, changes started to take place in the US economy, reflecting its changed role in the world. US companies grew in size, as they began to add overseas markets to their local markets. Wage disparity became more of an issue, as high tech operations required more specialized high-wage workers and fewer of those with only a general education. Increased competition for jobs with workers from lower-wage countries also tended to hold down wages of those without advanced training.


[6] The situation is very different now, compared to the 1970s. It is doubtful that today’s economy could tolerate a spike interest rates.
Today, we are not seeing rapid growth in per capita energy consumption, the way we were in the 1950 to 1980 period (Figure 9). In fact, world per capita energy consumption is almost flat (Figure 15), the way it was during the period of the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the way it was at the time of the collapse of the former Soviet Union in the 1990s (Figure 9).
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Figure 15. World energy per capita and world oil price in 2016 US$. Energy amounts from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2017. Population estimates from UN 2017 Population data and Medium Estimates.

There are other similarities to the 1930s period. Short-term interest rates are back to the low level they were in the 1930s (Figure 3). Growth in Disposable Personal Income per capita is persistently low (Figure 12). Wage disparity is at the high level experienced back in the 1930s (Figure 16).
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Figure 16. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.
It is probably because of this renewed wage disparity that we are having difficulty with oil gluts. Oil gluts were also experienced in the 1930s. People with inadequate wages cannot afford goods made with oil products. These gluts occur because of affordability problems–inadequate wages for part of the workforce.
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Figure 17. US ending stock of crude oil, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve. Figure produced by EIA. Figure by EIA.
Despite the spike in oil prices that central bankers are concerned about, oil prices are currently too low for producers. Oil exporting countries, such as Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Nigeria, depend on high oil prices so that they can collect high tax revenue. These countries are especially hurt by today’s low oil prices.
An increase in interest rates could very easily create a recession and drop oil prices even lower than they are today. Of course, that is precisely the intent of the central bankers. Our problem is that the economy cannot operate without energy products, particularly oil. The cost of producing oil is rising because of diminishing returns. It simply is not possible to drop its price as low as oil-importing countries would like it to be.


[7] Economists and central bankers think that they have good models of how the economy operates, but they really do not.
The economy is a self-organized system that is able to create goods and services using energy products. In fact, it cannot continue its existence, without continued very substantial energy consumption. The economy gradually builds itself up, with new businesses, new consumers, newly invented products, and with transportation and financial systems. I envision the economy as looking something like a child’s toy that is built from many pieces. If one or more pieces are removed, the system could collapse.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpre...01-b.gif?w=640


Figure 18. Dome constructed using Leonardo Sticks
The economy has been built based on the laws of physics. It requires sufficient energy. It is in many ways like a hurricane that loses power if it is forced to go over land for any distance. A hurricane gets extra strength if it is able to pass over very warm water, which provides the energy it needs. Right now, the world economy is showing signs that it does not have sufficient energy; the standard of living of young people around the world is falling. The return on energy investment is far too low.


While it may be true that the US economy looks like it is at full employment, based on the number of people looking for jobs, the percentage of people aged 25-54 with jobs tells a different story (Figure 11). This percentage has fallen since 2000, at least partly because of globalization.

Unfortunately, the approach that economists are taking to model the economy cannot provide a good representation of how the economy really works. A self-organized system has many feedback loops that are difficult to understand and model. One change leads to other changes that are hard to see in advance. The problem with current models is that they are likely to produce misleading indications.



[8] Conclusion
We have heard the saying, “That which does not kill you makes you stronger.” The theory behind raising interest rates seems to follow a similar line of reasoning. If central bankers can raise interest rates, economies will be stronger.

The catch is that we are too close to the “edge” to be testing an increase in interest rates. Economies, below a certain “stall speed,” cannot repay debt with interest, and cannot hope to provide entrepreneurs with an adequate return on investment. Our low rate of growth is already close to this stall speed.
Given where we are today, it would be quite possible to accidentally “kill” the economy with rising interest rates. This would be especially the case if short-term and longer-term interest rates rise at the same time. A budget with large deficits could cause longer-term interest rates to rise. So could selling large amounts of QE debt.
Also, feedbacks don’t come quickly enough to make necessary course corrections. This makes raising interest rates way too much like playing with physics reactions we don’t fully understand. Interest rate increases (like fission reactions) start chain reactions. In an open environment such as the world economy, we have limited understanding of the outcome of these chain reactions.

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...s/#more-171019

Interesting Read


Benjaminis

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/4...ilver-position


Benjaminis: Go Long Silver at the right moment. Option Expiry day on Thursday. Spot Price is 16.51 US

Summary
JP Morgan's COMEX Warehouse has more Silver Bullion than the 1980 Hunt Brothers and 1998 Berkshire Hathaway (Buffet / Munger) did.

From 0 to 133.7 million ounces after $50 oz USD Silver in April 2011.

What are the reasons for allegedly holding the largest short and long position in COMEX Silver (net-short) and Silver Bullion (long).

Roll in your Hunt Brother graves.

Eat your still beating hearts Buffet and Munger (1998 Berkshire Hathaway).
Does JP Morgan’s record-sized silver stack portend much higher prices ahead?

This potential silver trade has taken about a half century to fully formulate. It got its start with US silver demonetization (1965) and the inception of the full fiat currency era (August 1971).

Since then there have been two $50 oz USD silver spikes (mid-January 1980 & late April 2011), various investor and mining company lawsuits, and a few record sized silver holders along the way.

Below are three of the largest, including JP Morgan's now record size version:

The Hunt Brothers
1973 to 1980 - 100 million oz Silver
Driven by the then growing price inflationary fears, the Hunt Brothers amassed 100 million oz of physical silver bullion holdings by the late 1970s.
They proceeded to stray from prudence by combining their relatively safe physical silver bullion bet with out sized, riskier trades using leveraged derivatives by betting long on the COMEX silver futures contract exchange.
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...B9r_thumb1.png
Source

By the middle of January 1980, the silver and gold price were both exponentially rising and driving then Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to worry on a daily basis about the very viability if the US dollar back then.

So much so, that ultimately the COMEX commodity futures exchange abruptly and temporarily changed silver futures contract trading rules (e.g. liquidation trading orders only). The Hunt Brothers and other long COMEX silver futures contract traders lost billions in the subsequent price collapse. Anyone trading in gold COMEX contracts at the time likely took heed and moved on into the smaller less large pits for palladium and platinum (those two precious metals hit all time record highs only a few months later).

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...a9E_thumb1.png

The Federal Reserve with a consortium of 21 banks and lending institutions, were forced to bailout the Hunt Brothers to a tune of $1 billion USD. That loan likely came with then record high early 1980s interest rates. The Hunts were later tried and fined hundreds of millions of dollars in court. Their legacy continues to be openly scapegoated by the court of public opinion still to this very day.

Without coincidence other commodities like crude oil, and precious metals like gold, platinum, and palladium also hit record high prices in early 1980 without market ‘cornering’ traders attached.

Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway
1998 to 2006 - 129.7 million oz Silver
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...J4S9cTTQ6.jpeg
Source

Under the directive of Charlie Munger & Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway bought their then record sized 129.7 million ounce silver stack in 1998 only to sell later in 2006 (allegedly to begin the underlying silver position of SLV, the still most popular silver ETF traded today).

Since 2006, JP Morgan has been both an active SLV Authorized Participant (one of only a few financial institutions able to withdraw physical silver bullion from SLV's London warehouses for equity shares). As well also, JP Morgan is the sole SLV Custodian since the exchange traded fund began in 2006. This means they are in charge and ultimately responsible for overseeing all the physical silver being held in SLV.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...F6_thumb1.jpeg Source
JP Morgan Chase

2011 / 2018: +133.1 million oz Silver
This latest record silver bullion acquisition saga stretches its alleged start back to the Global Financial Crisis. In March 2008, Bear Stearns (a then large trader in silver futures derivatives) collapsed and was taken over by JP Morgan.

Only a few years later JP Morgan began adding silver bullion to its COMEX coffers, coincidentally following the near $50 oz price high of silver in April 2011.
This same firm, whose namesake once testified before the US Congress over a century ago stating “Money is gold, and nothing else”, now has a record high 133.1 million ounces of physical silver in its COMEX warehouse inventory.
Why?
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...3840004992.jpg
Source
The start of JP Morgan’s COMEX silver bullion stacking began only a few months removed from outspoken financial commentator Max Keiser's November 2010 public plea to ‘Buy Silver, Crash JP Morgan’.

This was broadcasted across the world on Russia Today (RT is funded in whole or in part by the Russian government).
As a quick aside, the Russian government has been actively acquiring physical bullion heavily over this same time. Here you can see their pictures to prove it.
Perhaps an early 2009 silver price of $9 oz to a 2011 spring $50 oz high, gave JP Morgan a long silver trade idea which it has since acted upon?
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...0595646262.png
Source
The COMEX is the most important price discovery mechanism for world silver prices. Even its parent company’s CEO is on record stating current bullion prices are too low.

Why does JP Morgan now hold over 50% of the total COMEX physical silver bullion holdings?

For years now, hosts of silver market analysts have explicitly defamed JP Morgan’s activities in the world silver markets. They publically allege continued fraud and market manipulation by JP Morgan in silver without any defamation or libel lawsuits as repercussion (perhaps JP Morgan has discovery process fears). Regardless assertions remain that JP Morgan actively engages in a concentrated silver price suppression scheme (on the COMEX) whilst simultaneously acquiring physical silver bullion ounces on the cheap.

And not merely the current record 133.1 million ounces of silver that is transparently published in JP Morgan’s COMEX silver warehouse data (which could of course have their client interests attached), but also alleged are additional 100s of millions of more silver bullion ounces that have been withdrawn from SLV and potentially purchased through other sovereign silver bullion coin mint programs (specific estimates are as high as +675 million ounces in total).
Why allegedly acquire about 75% of a commodity’s annual global mine supply over a seven year timeframe if not for speculating on substantially higher prices in the medium to long term?

Maybe by acquiring large bullion positions JP Morgan is hedging higher ‘capital buffer requirements’ mandated by the BIS’ Financial Stability Board who explicitly cites JP Morgan as the most risk-laden global systemically important bank today (G-SIB).
Perhaps it’s simpler than that, mere future profits.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...dAQ_thumb1.png
Source
Answers to these speculative questions will likely take years to play out. Problem with them is that once the answers become fully clear it will likely be too late to take any action. Failing and under-performing derivatives may be still be available (so long as markets aren't temporarily closed or limited with trading options), but physical bullion products will likely be difficult to acquire or priced way higher than would be reasonable to purchase and establish a beginning position with.
All this aside, the current fact remains. JP Morgan now has a bigger silver bullion position than any long silver bullion buyer that has existed in the modern age.
With assistance from record size derivative trading, this 21st Century secular bullion bull market is running about 2.5Xs the length of the last 1970s and 1980 version.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...pG2_thumb1.png
Source

I fully expect a 2020s mania for silver prices and bullion item values in terms of their real world goods and service buying powers ahead.
Bullion’s current cyclical price downside appears to be rather limited at today’s paltry price points (i.e. low bullion values compared to today’s ‘everything bubble’ historic valuations).

This current JP Morgan silver stash saga is just one of the most intriguing bullish silver setups ongoing. But there’s trillions of other reasons to be long physical silver and other precious metal bullion products currently.

Total global debt levels have now risen +56% above their 2007 starting points (IIF & BIS data). Expect a future combination of write off bankruptcies and currency debasement to service them.

The former head of BIS research is again ringing alarm bells calling for governments to step in to resolve the next financial crisis. Most will not hear or simply ignore him akin to his last warnings ahead of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

There is even now over 1,500 cryptocurrencies in existence. Keep Hodling if you like but only with what you can fully afford to lose.
Ask history or the Bank for International Settlements, "Which among these precious metal currency derivatives will endure throughout and beyond our lifetimes?" No-neck Agustin has his doubts on Bitcoin, but my suggestion is all currency derivatives are suspect especially when compared to physical precious metals in the 2020s.
Even a bond portfolio manager at PIMCO recently called for a sudden $5,000 oz USD gold price revaluation by the Federal Reserve to induce currency inflation to help ease debt and unfunded liability burdens. That is the level of lunacy a coming.
Perhaps if we wait to see, it will be too late when the answers unfold.

Just like JP Morgan appears to be actively doing.
We suggest you do as they do. Buy your physical silver bullion now.

--
James Anderson



100% FREE GUIDE on Our Bullion Website

Disclosure: I have no JPM or BRK positions and no thanks at these nose bleed valuations. I wouldn’t own nor ever pay 50 basis point annual management fees to SLV. In my studied opinion, SLV is an ETF investment vehicle, thus best for retail silver day traders not long term silver bullion holders. If you are bullish silver medium or long term just buy and own the bullion outright in hand or held as well in your direct (no middlemen) non-bank depository account with secure logistics providers like Brink’s, G4S, Malca-Amit, Loomis, etc.

Disclosure: I am/we are long SDBullion.com.

I am confused, I thought only beginners use these kind of indicators. How come that "fundamental and money flow trader" like you is using moving average indicators which suppose to give trading signals?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29


Have A Positive Weekend !!!


Benjaminis

It looks like nobody is interested in your copy/paste-news-service.

Good Morning Moron :-)

Now before you get upset like you always do here is the PM that you sent to me.

Feb 23, 2018 1:15pm

1. Reply
2. Forward
3. Cleanup
4. Unread
5. Trash

Tell me again that I am moron and idiot

I will be kind to you today because it is the Sabbath. I will NOT call you an idiot as you asked me to do. on February 23, 2018.

It seems like Forex Factory has two sets of rules. So that being the reality based on their non actions towards your unacceptable behavior I have good and bad news for you.

I will not reply to you anymore because it is clear to me that you are looking for a reaction and I have no time to waste with a MORON.

So now the GOOD News. The only REASON that I post here now is because I am working on my company website with my website designer and it serves my interests to post here until we go live in 90 days on June 1, 2018.

Later tomorrow I am going to post a SCREENSHOT of the FXCM Demo Account opened up 8 days ago under U10D2380206.

I have a prospective shareholder and associate that wants to watch my results during March 2018 so I will trade and post at least one SCREENSHOT here at the end of each day.

I have represented that the balance on Friday, March 30, 2018 will be a MINIMUM of $60,000 US Dollars or a Return on Investment of 20%.

So now you finally can watch how a real Forex trader works and if you have comments of course thanks to your being allowed to post TRASH as I have said in this post, I will just ignore you and not reply except if you get ABUSIVE and if so this time regardless of the effort needed and the cost I will find out who you are and take the necessary legal actions.

I hope you will be a gentleman however based on all your posts on my thread my expectations are quite low.


Benjaminis

 

1. Feb 23, 2018 1:15pm
2. Reply
3. Forward
4. Cleanup
5. Unread
6. Trash

Tell me again that I am moron and idiot

From a Thread called Knowledge Is Power
Copy and Paste


We welcome constructive criticism and well founded discussion. Inflammatory, rude, repetitive, offensive, off-topic or otherwise disruptive messages designed intentionally to annoy, stimulate or antagonize the existing members or alter the flow of discussion are NOT welcome and will be reported to the moderator team.

I will also start a sister-thread as a digest and to store all the cream from this thread and also as storage for all indicators posted for ease of reference.

10 Trading Rules for Successful Traders
1. Limit your losses.
2. Let your profits run.
3. Keep position sizes within reason.
4. Know your risk-reward ration.
5. Be adequately capitalised.
6. Dont fight the trend.
7. Never add to losing positions. Dont average out.
8. Know market expectations.
9. Learn from your mistakes keep a trading journal.
10. Have a maximum loss or retracement in profits.


For beginners, please read this free Forex education material and learn to be a successful trader: www.BabyPips.com

And also you are advised to read these excellent books:
1. Day Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies To Profit from Market Swings (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover) - by Kathy Lien

2. Technical Analysis of the Currency Market: Classic Techniques for Profiting from Market Swings and Trader Sentiment (Wiley Trading) (Hardcover) By Boris Schlossberg

3.High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market By Boris Schlossberg, Kathy Lien


You can preview the 1st and 3rd books here:
http://books.google.com.my/books?id=...sec=frontcover

http://books.google.com.my/books?id=...+lien%22&psp=1

The Essence of the 3rd book is here:
1. Never let a winner turn into a loser
2. Logic wins, impulse kills
3. Never risk more than 2% per trade
4. Trigger fundamentally, enter and exit technically
5. Always pair strong with weak
6. Being right but being early simply mean you are wrong
7. Know the difference between scaling in and adding to a loser
8. What is mathematically optimal is psychologically impossible
9. Risk can be and is predetermined but reward is unpredictable
10. No excuses, ever

BEWARE:
Why Currency Trading Is Not For Everyone?
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Remember, you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment, which means that you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. If you have any doubts, it is advisable to seek advice from an independent financial advisor.

RISK WARNING: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your monetary objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your deposited funds and therefore you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. You may be liable for losses that exceed the amount of margin that you post. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent advisor if you have any doubts. Past returns are not indicative of future results.

http://traderfeed.blogspot.ca/2018/0...f-trading.html

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2018
Profiting From a Dirty Secret of Trading
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-na2gZEY5y...Conformity.jpg
Kudos to Downtown Josh Brown for picking up ona Bloomberg article by Ben Carlson that illustrates how it's not rising rates that are a threat for stocks, but inflation. Ben notes the human tendency to think in narratives: this is happening because of that. Such narratives quickly become consensus within and across trading floors. That leads to a kind of conformity born of laziness. Traders don't develop their own models of rates and inflation, so pick up on dominant narratives. Excellent shorter-term opportunities can arise when those narratives are driving trader and investor behavior and excellent longer-term opportunities can arise when those consensus narratives are disconfirmed.

Jeff Miller points out that trading problems typically arise when markets change and we are no longer in our comfort zones. (His site, by the way, does a nice job of tracking inflation numbers, economic sector by sector.) We become particularly uncomfortable when our dominant narratives are challenged. When we can't make meaning out of what we're seeing, we understandably behave in reactive ways to lessen our discomfort.

We gain flexibility when we view market narratives as hypotheses and not as conclusions. This is where tracking correlations among markets can be incredibly helpful. So often, traders focus on their own markets, failing to notice macro drivers that--rightly or wrongly--are impelling near term market flows. On Friday, I was chatting with a valued trading colleague and we noted early in the session that the market's dominant cycle was cresting. That led to a nice, early short trade in the ES futures. As rates began to move lower, however, and stocks could not sustain downside momentum, I recognized that the "lower bonds, lower stocks" risk-parity bears had an opportunity to be trapped. The unwind of that narrative led to nice trades as we detected the potential to move from a cyclical to a trending short-term trading environment.

There's a dirty secret no one likes to talk about: large traders often don't do their own research. They construct narratives based on recent price action and what others are saying on the sell side, trading floors, etc. That conformity creates opportunity and is a great reason for tracking market chatter--but only as hypotheses!
Further Reading:

Trading and Self-Awareness

TraderFeed Home Page and Index

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge ALL FOR FREE and then if you have subscribed to this thread before May 31, 2018, then you will get a FREE LIFETIME PASS to our company website.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.


20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

In order to be able to help you better it is VERY IMPORTANT that you share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS here on our thread.

You just copy and paste here opinion of other analysts and authors. You are stealing other's work. Having in mind your criminal past that's not a wonder.
Can we at least one time hear from you opinion about markets? Show us that you also read and understand what you post here, not just copy/paste.

Here is how will end up your trading, like ended up 16 times last year. Burned account.

All Jews I know don't work on Saturday. You are very busy on Sabbath with your business...

I assume you will be using this indicator (signals) in your trading. Money flow is too complicated...

Just for the record , I am not recommending this service nor do I think it will work. I posted it so my web designer could see what kind of graphics presentation has appeal to explain my trading method of Money Flow Trading Method with Risk Management.

In the end the only thing that counts is the results.


Benjaminis

LOL

http://www.fxtechstrategy.com/how-th...ning-the-game/

How the 5% Traders Are Winning the Game
by Mohammed Isah | May 7th, 2015


Some people are afraid of success; others fear failure. Either way, the expression of the behavior is the same-not doing what is necessary and known in order to achieve success.


If you purchase a program that doesn’t help you select trades and have clearly defined entry and exit points, it’s incomplete.

If you purchase a program that doesn’t clearly separate risk management tools from money management tools, it’s incomplete.

If you don’t have a clear way to create a trading plan from the core ideas presented to you in the program, then it’s incomplete.

It is constantly said that 95% of traders lose money when it comes to trading. That means that 5% of the traders are collecting all of the profits. What are they doing differently?


There are four areas of a trade that have to be managed correctly in order for a trader to feel satisfied in his trading, whether he wins or loses. You have to know why you are selecting a trade, how to enter a trade, how to properly monitor the trade you are in, and, finally, how to exit the trade to the best of your ability.


If your decision-making process is faulty in any one of these key areas, you will start to cycle through the six emotions and become discouraged in your abilities as a trader.


Selecting Trades Properly
This is where so many traders go wrong. From the outset they don’t know what type of trader that they want to be. The guru is a day trader or an option-only trader, so you should be, too.

If the guru is trading a $50,000 account or recommends a $10,000 account, you should immediately follow suit.

Wrong!
You must trade to your strengths, interests, seed capital, time constraints, and abilities. Look at the experience of the program creator and realistically look at yourself. If you can’t stomach day trading, don’t do it.

If position trading is too stressful for you, don’t do it. Whatever the case, avoid putting on trades that simply don’t match who you are as a person.


If you are looking to stretch your boundaries into new trading arenas, first use a demo account and apply, to the best of your ability, the same conditions that you would experience if you were actually trading that way. As we know, ideal conditions never set the rule-they prove exception.


A little self-knowledge can go a long way to diminishing or eliminating improper trades from your lifestyle.


Entering Trades Properly
This leads us into how to enter a trade. In order to make a trade successful, you have to know how you are going to get out and what you have at risk. By fixating on the profits, you set yourself up for failure. The reality of trading is that profits take care of themselves.

If you have picked a good trade and the market is going in the right direction, there is little you can actively do to make that trade any better.

However, the question in the back of your mind should always revolve around: “What if I am wrong?” By entering a trade with that question on your mind, you can figure out if the trade is worth taking at all.

Successful trade entry is based solely on what you will do to exit.

Often, this has to take into account what risk management tools you will use in order to make the trade successful.


Monitoring the Trade
If you are a position trader, why are you watching the market hour by hour? If you are a swing trader, why are you looking at end-of-day results? These are genuine questions I have had to ask clients over the years. The key reasons fall back on one of two answers.

They don’t want to put a “stop order” in the market because they are afraid their stops will be run, so they keep mental stops and sit at their screen to get out fast; or they just like to “watch the market.” They are actually letting every tick on the screen influence how they act or, more importantly, how they will react to the market.

Whatever the reason of how and why a trader monitors the market, the core reason is fear.

They don’t trust the judgment that they have used to get into the trade, and they really don’t know how to protect themselves from losses besides either ignoring the market completely or watching tick by tick to anticipate what will happen next in the market.


Successful monitoring has to also have a back-up plan. Much like chess, you need to be three, five, maybe even seven moves ahead of your opponent. There is only one way to succeed in a trade: The market has to move in your direction. But there are at least two ways to lose: the market moves against you or the market does nothing.


If you prepare for these contingencies, your monitoring becomes a function of your preparation, not a crutch to rescue a trade that goes bad.

Exiting the Trade
Who determines how you get out of a trade, you or the market?

If it’s you, then maybe your actions are reactionary or you simply don’t have enough capital to be trading the markets that you are in. This is exactly why you have to know yourself when you execute a trade.

How you got in the market should be the exact reason why you get out of the market, if the markets fundamentally shift supply and demand in the opposite direction of your initial position.

When the market shifts, you should have targets in place to capture profits you have made or to protect your principal. These don’t necessarily need to be monetary targets; they could be overbought/oversold indicators, Bollinger bands, and so on.

The key point is that you have a reason for why you do what you do, coupled with a back-up plan that helps you reenter the market without being whipsawed or chasing the markets.

The exact way you get out of a trade will have a direct impact on how you get back into the market. It will determine if you can even get back in or if it’s too late, or if you can double up on your contracts, or if it’s time to find a new market altogether.


The exit, profits, and losses, should all be carefully prepared far in advance of ever putting your first dollar on the trade. This is the only way to prepare for an exit of a trade-leave a little room for unpleasant surprises.

Written by Noble DraKoln, he is founder of Speculator Academy, http://www.speculatoracademy.com. After becoming a licensed broker at the age of nineteen, he has gone on to author seven trading books. He is a former editor of Futures Magazine, regular contributor to Forbes, has been a featured guest on numerous financial channels, and is a sought after consultant speaker in the futures, forex, and options world. Needless to say his twenty-one years in the industry have been well spent.

He is also the author of the books Trade Like a Pro, Winning the Trading Game, published by Wiley and Sons, and the author of four book “Small Speculators Series”.
His books have been translated into German, Romanian, and is currently being translated into Chinese, Korean, and Spanish.

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: I had saved this article from 6/16/2013 when I had printed it out. What I find interesting is that is what we teach here.

We just do not trade because we trade. We have a Trade Plan. We know when we enter and when we should exit. We plan things out. We have an EDGE.

We show results and answer questions and there is no magic formula. It is about KNOWLEDGE and EXPERIENCE.

Our only goal is to have and control our fear and our greed and earn money by doing it a planned realistic professional way all the while teaching on a Demo Account.



Benjaminis

Post quickly, just to push behind my posts, embarrassing for you. LOL

HOW WE GOT HERE FROM DAVID STOCKMAN - CONTRA CORNER

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.co...htmare-part-1/

SNIPPET:
The Albatross Of Debt: The Stock Market's $67 Trillion Nightmare, Part 1

By David Stockman. Posted On Thursday, February 22nd, 2018

This is getting pretty ridiculous. For old times sake, we recently checked on the Federal debt level during the month we arrived in the Imperial City as a 24-year old eager beaver. That was June 1970 and the Federal debt held by the public was $275 billion.

Mind you, while that number wasn't exactly diminutive, it had taken all of 188 years to accumulate. That is to say, Uncle Sam had borrowed an average of $28,000 per week during the 9,776 weekssince George Washington was sworn in as the nation's first president.

We are ruminating about this seeming historical obscuranta because it just so happens that the US treasury this very week will be selling $258 billion of government debt.

That's right. Uncle Sam's scheduled debt emission this week will nearly equal his cumulative borrowing during the nation's first 188 years and its first 37 presidents!
And, yes, there has been some considerable inflation since June 1970. And not the least because exactly 13 months later Tricky Dick Nixon decided to pull the plug on Bretton Woods and the dollar's anchor to a fixed weight of gold.

Needless to say, the financial discipline of gold-backed money during that interval of guns and butter excess would most certainly have triggered a recession and a heap of inconvenience for Nixon's 1972 reelection prospects. As it happened, the American economy got a heap of inflation and destructive financialization over the next half century, instead.

Accordingly, the price level today is 5X higher as measured by the GDP deflator. So in today's dollars of purchasing power, the 1970 debt figure would be about $1.2 trillion.

This is by way of explaining that it hasn't been for nothing that we have labeled the Donald as the King of Debt and the Congressional Republicans as fiscal Benedict Arnolds. Their now enacted budget plan----which they have the gall to crow about from one end of the country to the other----is to borrow as much money in apples-to-apples dollars during the year ahead (FY 2019) as did the first 37 presidents of the United States!

Accordingly, Keynesians, beltway politicians of both parties and Wall Street punters, alike, know this: The US has a monumental debt problem, and it is most definitely not "priced-in".

So our purpose in this two-part series is to explain how it came to be not priced-in, and why that anomalous state of affairs is coming hard upon its sell-by date.
To be clear, we are not talking about just the $21 trillion of public debt that will be on the books after this week's borrowing binge, but the entire $67 trillion albatross of public and private debt that now strangles the US economy.

We refer to the latter as the lamentable outcome of the rolling national LBO that the US economy has undergone since June 1970.

The fact is, the $1.5 trillion of total public and private debt outstanding back then amounted to150% of GDP. And that implicit 1.5X national leverage ratio had essentially remained unchanged for the prior 100 years of robust economic growth and 25-fold rise in real income per capita.

By contrast, at $67 trillion of total debt today, the US leverage ratio stands at nearly 3.5X, and therein lies the giant financial skunk in the woodpile. Had the historically proven leverage ratio of 1.5X national income not been upended by Tricky Dick's perfidy, there would be $30 trillion of total debt on the US economy today, not $67 trillion.

So those two-extra turns of leverage amount to $37 trillion-----an economic millstone that is grinding capitalist growth steadily lower, and which has now put the main street and Wall Street economy alike in harm's way.

That's because the massive growth of central bank credit unleashed by the Camp David folly of 1971 has finally reached its limit---even by the lights of our overtly Keynesian central bankers. So they are now embarking upon an epochal balance sheet reversal that will drastically alter the fundamental dynamics of the financial system, and expose the vast falsification of financial asset values that are actually "priced-in" to today's Wall Street house of cards.

Indeed, it was today's Keynesian mind-frame that caused Nixon to jettison gold in the first place: He was advised by what we have called the "freshwater Keynesians" around Milton Friedman, who were every bit as statist on the matter of money and macro-economic management from Washington as were their "saltwater" compatriots in Cambridge, MA. They merely differed on technique as between monetary versus fiscal policy tools.

Alas, when practiced over a long enough time frame, however, Keynesians---and the politicians and apparatchiks who find it convenient to embrace their fataly flawed model---literally loose their minds. That is, insofar as historical memory is concerned.

Stated differently, they become incurably infected with "recency bias", and so doing end-up absolutely blind to the unsustainable errors and anomalies on which they whole debt-fueled scheme is predicted.