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DIY Trading - An Art of Probability

  • #21
  • Feb 20, 2018 3:44pm Feb 20, 2018 3:44pm
Ended the 2nd day with -1.1%. Had the opportunity to close with +1,8% during the day but sticked to the plan of holding until London 00:00. It was a bad (and mechanical) decision. I believe it is not possible to win mechanically. The market would not allow to win consistently following a rule that a good programmer can pack into an EA in one hour or so. Will close anytime I see a decent profit from now on.
  • #22
  • Feb 20, 2018 4:41pm Feb 20, 2018 4:41pm
nice 1 Jario. that's the negative side of an automatic systems, they want to control the market but in reality its the opposite..

re-renter 29 positions today @3:30 am (gmt+3 tz).. margin level reached 700% from 400% from previous days which is good.. will update again when closed. sleep mode till 5
  • #23
  • Feb 20, 2018 8:16pm Feb 20, 2018 8:16pm
going back to fxblue data, I noticed that drawdown drops when I started with same lot size in every trade. ROR also drops a little.. let's see how it goes in a long run..
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  • #24
  • Edited 1:52am Feb 21, 2018 1:40am | Edited 1:52am
Third day balance: $-2 (0% acc). Will change my entry time to 03:00 GMT.
  • #25
  • Feb 21, 2018 2:27am Feb 21, 2018 2:27am
Quoting Jairo
Third day balance: $-2 (0% acc). Will change my entry time to 03:00 GMT.
nice comeback..did you manually closed it? or did you closed it before the news?

i'll wait for the USD News, so far the EU News turns my blue to red, then the GBP news added the pain..so far the balance between W and L is there, let's see how it reacts to upcoming USD news
  • #26
  • Feb 21, 2018 3:43am Feb 21, 2018 3:43am
Quoting PXchange
{quote} nice comeback..did you manually closed it? or did you closed it before the news? i'll wait for the USD News, so far the EU News turns my blue to red, then the GBP news added the pain..so far the balance between W and L is there, let's see how it reacts to upcoming USD news
Closed on drawdown recovery to get a fresh start for the new entry time.
  • #27
  • Feb 21, 2018 4:37pm Feb 21, 2018 4:37pm
closed all positions from yesterday with 300$ loss. 8 winners out of 29 trades. not doing well with high impact news from EU, GBP & USD. re-enter with 29 fresh positions.
  • #28
  • Feb 23, 2018 8:40pm Feb 23, 2018 8:40pm
Weekly update and performance analysis:

1. This Week return: -5.2%
2. Average win rate: 52%
3. Current Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.07
4. Profit Factor: 1.39
5. Biggest drawdown of the week: -15.4%

The biggest drawdown of the week was -15.4% which was happened after high impact news from EUR, GBP & USD.
No changes of plan for next week unless margin level drops below 400% when opening 29 entries.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2-24-2018 7-02-50 AM-daily winners & losers.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2-24-2018 6-50-25 AM-ror.png Size: 36 KB
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  • #29
  • Feb 24, 2018 9:47am Feb 24, 2018 9:47am
Very interesting concept Pxchange and thanks for sharing. Congrats on the results. Best, Josh
  • #30
  • Feb 25, 2018 5:35pm Feb 25, 2018 5:35pm
Monday: opened 30 positions. available margin level reached 500%.
  • #31
  • Feb 26, 2018 10:39am Feb 26, 2018 10:39am
Quoting PXchange
Monday: opened 30 positions. available margin level reached 500%.
closed all with 134$ profit. win rate: 56%
  • #32
  • Feb 26, 2018 5:11pm Feb 26, 2018 5:11pm
Tuesday: opened 29 positions. available margin level reached 600%.
  • #33
  • Feb 26, 2018 9:17pm Feb 26, 2018 9:17pm
Looks like you and I are both long EUR/GBP, hopefully it goes up and up!!
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #34
  • Edited 11:53am Feb 27, 2018 5:20am | Edited 11:53am
Discretionary entries (answers to the question "where is this s*** going next day?"). 1.1% in the first day. Not valid though (not following the rules). So, I should stop posting.
  • #35
  • Feb 28, 2018 8:19pm Feb 28, 2018 8:19pm
Monthly update: Despite the negative performance for last week, still manage to end the month with an impressive return as it ranks no. 1 in FF February 2018 Leaderboard for Demo Account. Highest balance drawdown for the month is 33.9% which is quite high, but within range. Win rate is 48.6% but average winning trade is 2.1% vs. -1.4% of average losing trade which is good as well. Still no plans of changing trading rules & elements for next month.


"Again this strategy is more on probabilities not on predicting the market's direction."
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  • #36
  • Feb 28, 2018 9:28pm Feb 28, 2018 9:28pm
I'm confused because you are long EUR/JPY and short NZD/JPY when both previous days are red...many more where you are going opposite of previous day candle. Am I missing something?
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #37
  • Feb 28, 2018 10:25pm Feb 28, 2018 10:25pm
Quoting rafael5643
I'm confused because you are long EUR/JPY and short NZD/JPY when both previous days are red...many more where you are going opposite of previous day candle. Am I missing something?
my entries are based on the current candle not the previous one..example today i opened all positions based on the direction of today's candle around 3-4 am, and will exit all same time tomorrow before opening new one..for sure some positions are winners, some are losers..the outcome depends on the total pips either + or -
  • #38
  • Edited 10:53pm Feb 28, 2018 10:40pm | Edited 10:53pm
Quoting PXchange
{quote} my entries are based on the current candle not the previous one..example today i opened all positions based on the direction of today's candle around 3-4 am, and will exit all same time tomorrow before opening new one..for sure some positions are winners, some are losers..the outcome depends on the total pips either + or -
Oh I see thank you, that is very interesting. I'll give it a try, it seems to be going well for you so far! Even if you reduced lot size dramatically you would still get good returns. What % return in a month have you achieved with this method?

I'm confused again now though....it's currently 9:51 A.M. GMT +3. You said you enter @ 3:30 A.M. GMT +3 every day and from opening time GBP /JPY was @ 146.77 it was @ 146.56 @ GMT+3 3:30 A.M. so you would have gone short...but you went long. Trying to understand so I can try this out, thanks.
instagram: stepbystepforex
  • #39
  • Last Post: Feb 28, 2018 11:17pm Feb 28, 2018 11:17pm
Quoting rafael5643
{quote} Oh I see thank you, that is very interesting. I'll give it a try, it seems to be going well for you so far! Even if you reduced lot size dramatically you would still get good returns. What % return in a month have you achieved with this method? I'm confused again now though....it's currently 9:51 A.M. GMT +3. You said you enter @ 3:30 A.M. GMT +3 every day and from opening time GBP /JPY was @ 146.77 it was @ 146.56 @ GMT+3 3:30 A.M. so you would have gone short...but you went long. Trying to understand so I can try this out, thanks.
i just follow the last candle (recent movement), if you can see some of my gpb/xxx positions are not in same directions..i opened 29 positions so some big movements may take place already..sometimes it took me 45 minutes to complete the 29 entries..
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