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The Swamp

  • #16,541
  • Feb 16, 2018 4:53pm Feb 16, 2018 4:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} That may be true for some. Those big institutions made the year, quarter, month and week now close higher. They have multiple motives. Keeping the dollar low allows them to borrow cheap. The positions they hold may just be a lesser part of their portfolio. Lots of unforeseen, unknown reasons. European based institutions may see the closes higher and started buying the usd as a hedge.
or maybe institutions try to take more profits on their euro longs/create a way to dump their Euro longs.. the way to do it by crashing the dollar..
plus market keeps going up, people use cash (dollar) for stocks, or other risk assets...all those risk trades don't help dollar..
  • #16,542
  • Feb 16, 2018 5:10pm Feb 16, 2018 5:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrNdSwY4lI4
great vid about US debt..thanks Gator...
I will talk to you later.. have a good weekend...
  • #16,543
  • Edited 8:16pm Feb 16, 2018 5:42pm | Edited 8:16pm
Quoting gatorinla
the fed raises rates.. and the usd weakened tax cuts and the usd weakened Corporations repatriating offshore money and the usd weakening 7.5% was added to the deficit. more talk to add that much, plus. additionally the interest rates have risen. adding 4 trillion usd in debt to a 20,000,000,000,000 $ deficit. debt is like diluting the usd with 20% more usd. the usd should lose 20% of its value. compounded with higher interest.
Hi Gator and everyone...
Here's a monthly chart of the dollar index - It's a little cluttered, but I know you understand the levels on it....
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...And here is a monthly chart for the Euro that I first posted three years ago on FF...Guess you could say I'm giving Norm the nod here...
(After he drops back out of this terminus mofu about four or five hundred pips and gets another run at it)....

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  • #16,544
  • Feb 17, 2018 2:01am Feb 17, 2018 2:01am
Quoting BlueCirrus
{quote} Hi Gator and everyone... Here's a monthly chart of the dollar index - It's a little cluttered, but I know you understand the levels on it....{image} ...And here is a monthly chart for the Euro that I first posted three years ago on FF...Guess you could say I'm giving Norm the nod here... (After he drops back out of this terminus mofu about four or five hundred pips and gets another run at it).... {image}
EURUSD and the USD Index are very highly inversely correlated. You could say the EURUSD is the USD Index .
You just need to analyse one of them.


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Boxing clever since 76.
  • #16,545
  • Feb 17, 2018 2:55am Feb 17, 2018 2:55am
I had a Eur/Usd long that triggeed at 1.244x :x
  • #16,546
  • Feb 17, 2018 12:45pm Feb 17, 2018 12:45pm
I posted this in SI a few hours ago.. I would like share the info here too...

Anonymous trader buys $400 million in bitcoin... go big or go home

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/an...w&link=sfmw_tw
  • #16,547
  • Feb 17, 2018 1:55pm Feb 17, 2018 1:55pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

Until Tuesday, institutions were seen continuing to trim their record long positions in Euro for the 3rd consecutive week,
which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, Feb 13, 2018.
The institutions net long Euro positions decreased during last week by 13,534 lots to 127,289 lots.

20,584 long positions were closed, and 7,050 short positions were closed as well. Now Longs total 230,785 lots vs shorts total 103,496 lots .
69% long exposure vs 31% short exposure, the same as previous week

Previous week on 2/1, Euro retreated after hitting 1.2523, monthly supply zone. This week from 2/6, the price first moved down to 1.2205 low and found support
It turned around and on the way to challenge 1.25s once more. Euro closed at 1.2350 on 2/13 as of the report date.

We did witness after the report, Euro challenged monthly supply zone for the 3rd time hitting 1.2555 on 2/16 and then back down once again last Friday

Large order of longs being closed, it indicates institutions continued profit taking on their long positions
Some shorts being closed at 1.22s support zone area,which helped pushing up the price for their longs.

Long term bullish remains but short term trend more to the downside

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For Euro, they have built their net long positions since 5/9/2017.
Therefore, the bullish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #16,548
  • Feb 17, 2018 2:29pm Feb 17, 2018 2:29pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} or maybe institutions try to take more profits on their euro longs/create a way to dump their Euro longs.. the way to do it by crashing the dollar.. plus market keeps going up, people use cash (dollar) for stocks, or other risk assets...all those risk trades don't help dollar..
unless people are borrowing from U.S. banks to buy U.S. stocks. I dont think it makes a difference concerning usd much. Offshore money coming into U.S. are forced to convert to usd (buying usd). Creating a demand. Money leaving the U.S. to another country is selling usd.(anti demand). Borrowing from a U.S. (diluting usd) bank. And taking that money to invest in another country has a 2X affect. I dont know if this is happening. It could be checked with outflows.

The recent tax cut is set to borrow $1,500,000,000,000. With talk of more borrowing even greater amounts. These dollars will dilute the usd. It's just printing usd. It's not any real value when the supply is diluted. Things just inflate some. This may be a reason another reason to consider usd .81... eu 1.3495... At some point some inflow from foreigners investing in U.S. may happen. It may be happening now with recent tax cuts. But atm the evidence shown in P.A. is outflow or dilution is happening. And it's not enough to cause much inflation yet. In 1929 U.S. markets dropped when loose leveraged money created a bubble. The same situation in 2008, with leverage. 2 weeks ago it was a mini drop, barley 10%. Really just a blip on the screen. In that blip one can see that some over leveraging is present. It showed some liquidity problems. If the U.S. had some type of financial crises now, it could be worse than 2008. The market is up 400% in 9 years. All recessions since 1970 were lead by a spike in oil. Oil has spiked.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #16,549
  • Edited 3:48pm Feb 17, 2018 3:07pm | Edited 3:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} unless people are borrowing from U.S. banks to buy U.S. stocks. I dont think it makes a difference concerning usd much. Offshore money coming into U.S. are forced to convert to usd (buying usd). Creating a demand. Money leaving the U.S. to another country is selling usd.(anti demand). Borrowing from a U.S. (diluting usd) bank. And taking that money to invest in another country has a 2X affect. I dont know if this is happening. It could be checked with outflows. The recent tax cut is set to borrow $1,500,000,000,000. With talk of more borrowing...
perfect said...Gator...
For Euro, still wait for uptrend confirmation to go long...not sure 1.22s is the area, but definitely 1.20-1.21 s for intermediate term, since we have not tested those area before, we should see good support there...
Institutions are still having 69% exposure in longs...that is why I said in COT -Euro long term remains bullish...
  • #16,550
  • Feb 18, 2018 7:42am Feb 18, 2018 7:42am
Inserted Video
  • #16,551
  • Edited 12:17pm Feb 18, 2018 9:55am | Edited 12:17pm
Due to bandwidth , I can't post in steemit till later.. share my info here first...

How Institutions Position Themselves In Dollar This Week

For Dollar, the latest COT as of Tuesday, Feb 13, 2018, institutions decreased net bearish bets by 733 lots, this is 2nd consecutive week net change was positive for the dollar

3,428 long positions were closed and 4,161 short positions were closed as well, . Now Longs total 24,202 lots vs shorts total 26,972 lots .
47% long exposure vs 53% short exposure , the same as the previous week

Price was consolidating between daily demand zone 88.5- 89.5 area, then moved up to test daily supply zone at 90.50-91 on 2/8 and 2/9, failed to break
and back down to daily demand zone once again , closed at 89.73

Large shorts orders being closed , which helped dollar bounce from daily demand zone 88-89 to test daily supply zone 90.5-91 .
Once the daily supply zone proved tough to break. Longs being closed, price moved down in the second half of the week

Long term Bearish bias, Short term bearish too. However in the short term we see dollar bulls have defended 88s-89s this weekly demand zone for last 4 weeks…

Wait for trend confirmation. A loss of the above support makes the dollar vulnerable to next demand zone 84.5-85.5

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For dollar, they have been decreasing their net long positions for over a year,Therefore, the bearish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #16,552
  • Feb 18, 2018 10:31am Feb 18, 2018 10:31am
This is why we can't have nice things. Bitcoin and the rest of the basket are in struggle mode. Next Bitcoin challenge for bears now may be 10,455. Its approaching it now. Bulls may try to bounce in here short term. Longer term, I dont think the retrace is finished. The basket should do the same direction.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #16,553
  • Feb 18, 2018 12:03pm Feb 18, 2018 12:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
This is why we can't have nice things. Bitcoin and the rest of the basket are in struggle mode. Next Bitcoin challenge for bears now may be 10,455. Its approaching it now. Bulls may try to bounce in here short term. Longer term, I dont think the retrace is finished. The basket should do the same direction. {image}
who says we can't have nice things? don't be so down..... this is like normal routine for weeks now since Dec.. we buy bitcoin on Friday night after futures closes, sell it on Sunday before the future opens...every week.. repeat the same play.....which has been making the money...
  • #16,554
  • Feb 18, 2018 12:45pm Feb 18, 2018 12:45pm
Quoting micho
{quote} Some targets (striked are reached): EU 1.191x UC 1.227x UJ 111.5x AN 1.100x GU 1.412x and 1.287x EJ 136.9x EC 1.492x EG 0.874X
Some targets:
EU 1.191x
UC 1.227x
UJ 111.5x
AN 1.100x
GU 1.287x
EJ 136.9x
EC 1.492x
EG 0.874X
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,555
  • Feb 18, 2018 12:57pm Feb 18, 2018 12:57pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} who says we can't have nice things? don't be so down..... this is like normal routine for weeks now since Dec.. we buy bitcoin on Friday night after futures closes, sell it on Sunday before the future opens...every week.. repeat the same play.....which has been making the money...
it just a saying.. like "boy you got a pretty mouth"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #16,556
  • Feb 18, 2018 12:59pm Feb 18, 2018 12:59pm
Quoting micho
{quote} Some targets: EU 1.191x UC 1.227x UJ 111.5x AN 1.100x GU 1.287x EJ 136.9x EC 1.492x EG 0.874X
that is deep....based on weekly chart?..
  • #16,557
  • Feb 18, 2018 1:06pm Feb 18, 2018 1:06pm
I found it.......omg.. I learn so much from you every day ...

You have a purdy mouth
When some hillbilly hits on you, the most favoured line they are to use on you is "You have a perdy mouth.", which means "You have a pretty mouth." after the compliment, there tends to be some drooling by said hillbilly along with an obnoxious wink and a YEHAW!
  • #16,558
  • Feb 18, 2018 2:34pm Feb 18, 2018 2:34pm
Intraweek; Buyer 2333, seller 2620/2656/2720
  • #16,559
  • Feb 18, 2018 3:13pm Feb 18, 2018 3:13pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} that is deep....based on weekly chart?..
its based on the signals i had in the last few weeks, not just 1W chart... up to 5 Min charts
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #16,560
  • Edited 6:50pm Feb 18, 2018 4:17pm | Edited 6:50pm
Quoting edyraper
Intraweek; Buyer 2333, seller 2620/2656/2720
I am already in at 2409, will add more later around 2381 and 2340
I just needa keep my eyes on 2205, if it breaks this level, I will look for short targeting 2050 area.
Otherwise, watching for a bo north

Letsee !
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