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GDP

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 27, 2006 2:36am Sep 27, 2006 2:36am
I'm curious about Thursdays US GDP. Why the yellow rating? GDP has been a good mover in the past. I'm guessing the q/q(f) might just be a final revision number and not very news worthy. Any point in trading this one???

Thanks for the input!

JP
Watching the charts like Spock.
  • #2
  • Sep 28, 2006 1:44am Sep 28, 2006 1:44am
Well I see on the calander that the GDP has been split up into
GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (f) & GDP Annualized q/q (f)
and they have both been upgraded to orange. I've done ok with it
in the past. Guess I'll wake up early after all .....Crap... it's in less than
6 hours better get in a few winks

Good luck to all who trade it!

JP
Watching the charts like Spock.
  • #3
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:15am Sep 28, 2006 7:15am
Expect reversal/retrace if the actual is within 0.5 of the estimate...

We have Bullish USD for this week. Therefore expect the same sentiment clouding most traders out there.
  • #4
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:38am Sep 28, 2006 7:38am
Seems that I have "rusty" timing today.

The number came out 2.6 (actual) vs 2.9 (estimate). A 0.3 is a mild deviation favoring current USD Bull sentiment.

The first minute shot up with an immediate reversal. Straddlers would have died in an instant. The 2nd minute is the same.

I prematurely exited thinking that, GBPUSD had gone down 200 pips already (very oversold), it cant move down further in a single day! So I exited with just 6 pips profit (instead of the possible 15)..
  • #5
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:39am Sep 28, 2006 7:39am
man that GDP number was fairly weak. anyone have a guess as to why the dollar is strengthening on this news?
Relax and be happy.
  • #6
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:42am Sep 28, 2006 7:42am
Lucky BK. I had a straddle of 15 each way. I canceled that once i saw the numbers which didnt hit my trigger, and also, there wasnt a movement on the market. But i went long once cancled the numbers. Which i could have made 3 pips profit, but didnt now down 11 pips so far. Waiting this one out, it should go back up for the retrace soon, "fade of the fade."
  • #7
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:43am Sep 28, 2006 7:43am
Quoting merlin
man that GDP number was fairly weak. anyone have a guess as to why the dollar is strengthening on this news?
Defenders of the USD have returned home from vacation?

Personally I was thinking "its not that bad" and the number was for August (traditionally slow month) - so what do you expect?
  • #8
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:48am Sep 28, 2006 7:48am
Anyone notice that IBFX Widen the Spread Up to 19 pip for 2 sec then back to normal ?
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #9
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:49am Sep 28, 2006 7:49am
Quoting BurgerKing
Personally I was thinking "its not that bad" and the number was for August (traditionally slow month) - so what do you expect?
nah it wasnt for august, it was for the second quarter. this is the final release of 2Q.
Relax and be happy.
  • #10
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:49am Sep 28, 2006 7:49am
Merlin, I was hoping that you would know the reason and didn't expect you to ask the question

I have theories - 1) it's already priced in, 2) traders defending their positions, 3) last minute profit taking before reversal.

On EURUSD, I have a perfect touch of a lower support line. Maybe it just needed to get to the support in order to pick up steam for a reversal. I don't know.

Quoting merlin
man that GDP number was fairly weak. anyone have a guess as to why the dollar is strengthening on this news?
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  • #11
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:50am Sep 28, 2006 7:50am
I am buying USD since monday, keep pushing my luck and this time I am lucky again. Still have the feeling that USD is bullish. What driven it this far?
  • #12
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:51am Sep 28, 2006 7:51am
Quoting stockwet
Merlin, I was hoping that you would know the reason and didn't expect you to ask the question


i have many more questions than answers:
Relax and be happy.
  • #13
  • Sep 28, 2006 7:57am Sep 28, 2006 7:57am
Glad I didn't straddle this one. Actually wish I would have slept through this one(PST time here) still looking for a bit mor of a retrace (Euro) but it's not looking to likley seems to just be channeling or if any thing ....a little to the down side ....Now its moving up gotta go.
Watching the charts like Spock.
  • #14
  • Sep 28, 2006 8:07am Sep 28, 2006 8:07am
Quoting MaXeY
Anyone notice that IBFX Widen the Spread Up to 19 pip for 2 sec then back to normal ?
That is why I abandoned Straddling with IBFX on minor news. Secondly, I noticed that GDP is not straddle-able anyways (only 2 winners vs 6 possible killers) considering the widened spread.

However I was able to fade with IBFX today.. ended up with 6 pips when the spread dropped back... Though I had the right tactic (fade) for this, I was not well researched on the max initial frenzy move so I delayed my short for 3rd minute when the price had gone down by 20 pips already.

All in all it was not a perfect trade for me; but nonetheless a successfull one with a minor win.


Quote
nah it wasnt for august, it was for the second quarter. this is the final release of 2Q.

Umm... so you are saying that July is for Q2 initial, Aug is for Q2 revised and Sep is for Q2 final?

And therefore:
Oct = Q3 initial
Nov = Q3 revised
Dec = Q3 final
  • #15
  • Sep 28, 2006 8:08am Sep 28, 2006 8:08am
  •  Carlos
  • | Joined Sep 2005 | Status: Commitment, planning and discipline | 65 Posts
Only thing i can add is that when it goes the other way than we might have expected, it can only be saying that the market has loads of USD possitive sentiment....

I am also suprised the GBP continued its downward march... before the data it had already reached its 150% ATR.... uummm would have thought that those figures would have created the previously anticipated pullback!

BUT, i'd love to see GBP getting smashed another 100 pips south http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon10.gif

Happy trading!
  • #16
  • Sep 28, 2006 8:09am Sep 28, 2006 8:09am
While the outturn is 0.3% lower than the prelim number (and against the consensus), the data is old news by now. Core PCE was a 0.1% lower at 2.7% for the quarter but this isn't exactly a shocker. I shorted EUR/USD and then when EUR/USD overshot on the downside, I 'faded-the-fade', which luckily paid off. 10 pips from each side but its just luck - I'm sure I could just have easily got stopped out.

Tomorrow will be more interesting, with euroarea HICP in the morning and then PCE/Income/Spending and Chicago PMI in the afternoon. In the meanwhile, despite my GBP-ive view, I see GBP/USD didn't trade with a downside bias through this GDP data. After such a big sell of over the past 24 hours, it may be running out of steam.
"Always bet on black"
  • #17
  • Last Post: Sep 28, 2006 9:07am Sep 28, 2006 9:07am
This was a very interested day for me. I was reading Bloomberg and understanding why the GBP seemed so week today. I felt that the USD news had to be very bad for the GBP to reverse movement. With all of that in mind I went short in the GBP just before the release and put my stop at a wide enough distance to withstand a spike in the long direction.

I ended up with +20 pips

I just felt that straddle was a very bad idea.

I guess my homework paid off today.

Also...I decided not to trade trade the CAD...to risky with all of those reports today.


DC
"There is MORE Happiness in giving than receiving"
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