The Equilibrium, a key to success!

Hi Bionics,yourtime and effort here is remarkable.Thank you.
Regarding EU I've been waiting a month to short this one but if it Breaks 2.55 I see 2.8 as the next opportunity. Cheers

Outlook for 2018


Hello Mallee,

Thanks for the nice compliment. I like to pass on my experiences, after all, I have also received many ideas and input from some successful traders.
I am delighted that you are working with the Equilibrium and drawing in important zones. This is already the first step to success. Your forecast is understandable and could be quite real.

In order to get an exact overview of the whole situation I used a weekly chart from 2008 to 2018. For this overview, I use here a ZigZag Color, which shows me exactly the top of the courses. This creates a clear picture.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Basically, I always ask myself in which price region the demand dominates the supply or there is a supply market.
From point 1 to point 2, demand was higher than supply. Likewise from point 3 to point 4 the demand dominated. In principle, point 1 and point 3 were responsible for a strong move upwards. The starting point for this move, however, is in my opinion at point 1. Therefore, I have drawn in this area a gray resistance at 1,185. The red line 1.162 below comes from a move that ran from 1.60. That's why this red line is a strong resistance for me. This can also be seen in the course of 2015 to 2017 very nice.

Let's get to the supply market. From point 5 to point 6 there was a strong supply market. The trigger comes from the 1.40 region, has run down to 1.233, then a small pullback to 1.257 and then down to 1.04. Then there was a sideways range for 2 years which signaled uncertainty. Only at 1.03 the push came up, which one can understand well with the Equilibrium. The demand market dominated until 1.209, after which the offer dominated until 1.156.
We see that the red line is a strong resistance line. From the Open 2018 it went up almost 550 pip. Between 1.25 and 1.26 we have a strong resistance. Point 5 signals to me that there is a strong sellers' market here with a possible drop to the point 1 or 3, since there again the demand is greater than the supply. In the region between point 5 and point 1, some sellers still have to be satisfied before they can move upwards with the strong move.

Looking at the picture, it looks a bit like a reverse head and shoulders formation, fueling the presumption of a strong move up.
The chance for a downtrend up to 1.207 / 1.179 is given at point 5. Nevertheless, the course could run even higher then reverse and run down.
Therefore, the smaller time units are important to watch.

Every trader makes a plan before he starts trading. He needs an idea as to how it could possibly run and then starts to implement this idea.
My rough idea for 2018 is the plotted green annual candle in the chart. I have already described this idea in detail with justification here in the blog. Take a look at that.

Now it's about this idea in small time units to disassemble in order to start the day. I need long-term, medium-term and short-term goals. I have defined the long-term goal for myself. Now everyone has to identify the medium-term and short-term goals and then implement them. With this measure you are already further than many others who work without a goal.

Of course, no one can tell you whether it all happens or not. But who does not have a goal can not arrive. Before I make a trade, I have to know where the price goes, otherwise I would not trade. The most probable and safest way to know where the course is going is for me, the Equilibrium.

That does not mean that I'm always right. But I'm often right than wrong. And that's enough for me to further optimize my concept. With the right money management and the optimal attitude will act to success.

Keep it up, you're on the right track
I'm happy about feedback

Greetings and a very successful day

Hello bionik,
thank you very much for your informative reports. Slowly I get a completely different picture of what trading and how to approach a trade.
I see that in the past I have done many things wrong and that I still have to learn a lot

Hello Skipper13,


One can defend oneself against criticism, every human being is powerless against praise. I am most pleased that you, as a beginner, are making tremendous progress with Equilibrium. Although it is a bit more difficult at the beginning than with the basic indicators that everyone knows, but it is also much more profitable to work with the Equilibrium.

In this block there are various information that will save a trader a lot of nerves and a lot of money. I hope that the community within this blog "Equilibrium the key to success" will be even bigger and thus the exchange.

Traders are usually alone in front of their screen and an exchange with like-minded people is often difficult. You know other traders in real life, everyone has their system and works with it because he has always done so.

For this blog I wish a strong exchange with more like-minded people. To trade is one side, to write about it means to explain to others and to yourself how it works. Thus you recognize the errors in the system even faster and the learning success is enormous.

A group of people together is always smarter than the smartest individual. I hope our community grows bigger so we can put that strength to work for ourselves.

Everyone benefits from this because, as already mentioned, we trade here in the largest shark tank as a small fish. But we have a real chance, but that only works in a big community.

best regards
Michael

Supply, demand and market balance is the foundation of microeconomics.


Take just 10 minutes and watch this video of the nonprofit Khan Academy.



This example with apples illustrates our situation in the market. It's always about finding the best price, and the best price is always in an equilibrium. Here in the Forex market, there is a crucial difference to the example shown in the video.

Every trader can sometimes act as a trader and sometimes as a buyer. And this is a very special opportunity. But I have to understand the connection between supply and demand. If I am able to identify the equilibrium using the price chart, I have turned the future probability in my favor.

That's what our blog is about.

best regards

Hello John Wick,
the resistance seems logical at first sight, my resistance is slightly lower between 1.19508 and 1.19467. In any case, in this range is an Equilibrium, was on the road today and have just switched me on. I'll take a closer look.
best regards

Hello Mallee,

I looked at the overview again with a smaller setting in the ZigZag, because there was a small pullback above point 5.



Again, it can be seen that the actual downtrend has started at 1,257. Although the price has gone down from 1,288 to 1,234, it has been brought back to 1,257 by an Equilibrium. Thereafter, the supply market dominated strongly.

You could be right with your assessment, just look for clear clues that point to a falling price.

best regards

Hello Michael
I am learning.
Do I see it right that we have an equilibrium area here in which it decides in which direction the course will run in the future and I have to look in the small TF again an equilibrium, in this area, to find an entry?

Klaus

Hello skipper,

that will be fine, you will see it.

I wrote a post about your question this morning. Post 303. Check it out again.



Although we have a POC on the purple line, we also have a big downward pressure, so I'm skeptical of how long the resistance really holds. Always look at where we have a strong supply market or demand market. Also look at the video in the Post 305 again.

In the lower area where the green bars are is a large demand zone. There you should look more closely in the smaller timeframe.

best regards

Hello Skipper13,





The 100 pip down move is due to this 2014 chart. Take a look at the purple line in today's chart picture, then it will be clear. The pressure down is very strong, but there will be a pullback from time to time. Whether we can soon reach the 1.179 from now on is evident within the further course of the share price. I'm a downside fan, so you can act fast and efficiently. Especially since we are bullish this year.

best regards

Hallo Michael,

thank you

[quote=dkrock;10786775]Hello. I normally do not comment on Trading Systems

Hello dkrock,

First of all, thank you for your comment and especially for your criticism. I'm not offended, because criticism is finally a help to get better. Your criticism is factual and not personal. The reason why many people do not accept criticism is due to their vanities. It's often about being the best and to prove it to all people.

Being the best is not a worthwhile goal for me, but I'm always happy to learn from successful people.

I do not want to defend my definition of equilibrium because there is no right or wrong in the stock market or in the Forex market.

Take successful traders like Hanover, varun 76, Nicholishen, simond2002 and many others. Among other things, these professional traders are successful because they represent their own opinion and are not too bad to learn from other people. I can not agree with some of your statements, but I'm ready to learn.

Thank you very much for your kind offer and I will gladly deal with your way of trading.

I wish you a nice weekend
best regards

Great Bionics,
First of all, i want to thank you for your hard work you have spent so much time to explain this great idea (and share so much informative images). Down and up of price is very common, especially in the range market condition (i saw some up and down arrows too at your charts), so we must prepare all things before taking decision because the move are some times in range but some times are in trending (one way ticket to the moon).



Before i put order, i need to calculate all possible factors, using so many indicators and theories i may have (from ma, oscillator, volume, volatility, trend lines, etc ...), reading news, pay attention to market sessions, and may be using our voodoo indicators too .. lol , but still always having doubt, how to find the right time to entry ...
Top target is far enough from current prize (1.60xx based on Godmode, it is almost 3500 pips !!), so this year will be a very interesting year, but the main question is: does he calculate it Right ... ???

[quote=phoenix168;10788354]{quote} Great Bionics, First of all, i want to thank you for your hard work you have spent so much time to explain this great


Hello phoenix168,

Nice to hear from you, I hope you are fine. Thank you for your kind words, there is indeed a lot of work here in the forum. But it's worth the effort if other traders can benefit from it.

In December 2017, when analyzing the EURUSD monthly chart from 1971 to 2017, I drew a few lines in the chart and made some calculations.



This gave an idea of how the EURUSD could evolve over the course of the year. On 01. January I posted this idea to FF.



Until we reach the 1.60 it will last until the end of 2021 / beginning of 2022 according to this calculation. That is pure speculation, though. At the end of January, I discovered the article by Godmode Trader, which coincidentally appeared on the Internet 1 day after my post. I found that quite interesting, as other traders had a similar idea.

I think we can be happy this year if the EURUSD creates the 1.39900, because from this price zone, supply dominates demand again. Whether that happens, however, is still far in the stars. I found the idea quite interesting, so I uploaded it.

You are absolutely right in your statement that getting started is not easy. Especially for me because I work with very tight stops. I leave out most of the indicators. Although I have a very elaborate dashboard, this only helps me to stay in the market a little longer. I can confirm that one can not at the same time pay attention to indicators, market conditions, press, FED, ECB and much more. That's why these things do not interest me at all. If there's an important session, I'll let the other traders go first and take a break.

In addition, I recommend to work without indicators only with the pure price chart.

Within the strong upward trend of the EURUSD, it is currently looking for a stronger correction. Whether this correction goes to 1,179 unfortunately no trader knows the world. However, we have a strong demand zone in this area again. The course has run three times in the last 21 days in the zone 1.252 / 1.255 and failed three times. One can conclude that this is a strong resistance zone. If the price is already breaking high in this zone, this resistance zone could become the support zone. This would make relapsing to 1,179 even more difficult than at the present time.

Therefore, I rather believe in a stronger decline towards 1.207 / 1.199 or a maximum of about 1.179. This is my opinion as always and thus pure speculation, because it comes in Forex market always different. If the course actually runs to 1.179 I can say: I guessed it, but I can not know it today.

Assuming that the price reaches 1.399 by the end of the year, and I would put up some contracts now, I would have to calculate a stop of 620 pips to possibly earn 1,600 pips. That's a chance risk ratio of 2.58, but I would not be sure because of the long time. If I want to invest in a long-term oriented manner, I would be more efficient with the cost average effect. As a swing trader you create a risk ratio of 2.58 faster and you do not have to wait a whole year. That's why I'm more on the short term. But that too is a matter of opinion.

The market in which we all trade works with the principle of supply, demand and equilibrium in a polypol, a market form of microeconomics. For this reason, I try to analyze and implement the supply zones and demand zones.

The Equilibrium helps me to better identify these zones. Equilibrium means uncertainty but also that buyers and sellers are in agreement at this moment.
After equilibrium, it is crucial with what strength demand dominates supply or with what strength demand dominates supply. Certainly price zones emerge, which always react similarly when the price enters this zone.

I have been following this principle for many years and I am very satisfied. However, it is very difficult to explain exactly the principle of supply and demand within the forex market. I will gladly work, discuss and develop strategies with the traders who believe in Equilibrium.

This does not work overnight, because you need about 10,000 hours to become a professional. This is unfortunately the same in every other job. However, I think that most traders do not act here to be a millionaire tomorrow, because unfortunately I can not help. It is much better to learn how to live the long term from trading. But this is decided by the traders who want to be successful with this system.

How to learn the principle of equilibrium faster, I will publish another post until tomorrow.

I wish you a nice weekend and I look forward to hearing from you.

Best regards

Hello Skipper 13,
it's a pleasure
Have a nice Weekend

[quote=aymoon2018;10785448]Hellothe resistance seems logical at first sight, my resistance is slightly lower between 1.19508 and 1.19467. In any case, in this range is an Equilibrium, was on the road today and have just switched me on

hello aymoon2018 I am looking forward to a reply best regards

Thank You very much Bionics, i am fine and enjoying your great explanation ... it's really help !
About your yearly candle, is it in MT4 or other platform ? How can you do it ? i can not find how to use periodConverter indicator to create some think like that ...
Will spare time to read all of your posts from beginning ... Trying to understand the whole. Have a nice weekend Too ...

Hello phoenix168,

Thank you for your compliment. In my blog, all steps are described exactly. You will find all the indicators and the exact settings. I know it's a bit of work to read it all, but it was a lot more work to write
Please take a little time and work through this blog, I am convinced that it will save you a lot of work in the long term.
On the first page you will find the most important headings.

I wish you a nice weekend

Best regards

Help to get a feel for the Equilibrium


Dear Traders,

Before we come to an interesting assistance, how to get a better feeling for the Equilibrium, I would like to show you a midnight trade of December 2017 and why I did it. This trade was risky, I realized that later.



At point 1 and point 2 on 11.Dec 17 one sees very nicely an uncertainty in the market. Shortly thereafter, the course went down. At point 2 I drawn two lines. At point 3 there was another equilibrium, which I ignored for the moment. At the 13.Dec between 13:00 and 14:30 CET point 4 was born. This point was very interesting for me. After an equilibrium, the price went up sharply. There I also drawn two lines. Demand clearly dominated the supply to the point 5. There was a small pullback, then dominated demand back up. Overall, the price went up about 100 pip until again a strong uncertainty prevailed in the market. The third and fourth last candle (top right of the chart) were responsible for my two lines. I do not like such equilibrium because the range is much too big there.



The price went even further up after a pullback and then suddenly dropped off. At the top I set a line. From this line clearly dominated the offer. The price lines for my buy limit order and my stop were clear, although I thought about putting the stop a little lower. However, I oriented myself to the strong momentum from the top of the 13th of December. When setting the TP, I was also a bit uncertain. The top line was too uncertain for me because the course was strongly rejected there. Added to this was the uncertainty of the slightly larger equilibrium within my two lines. Finally, I decided to put the TP something under the line.



During the Friday 15.12.2017 the course went up a bit and was pushed down with the US session. Here I was very lucky, because the price closed on Friday evening 8 pip over my buy limit order. I do not like to be in the market over the weekend because potential gaps are unpredictable. Still, I had a high risk of being stopped out by a gap, as the order was in the market. Since I had used a guaranteed stop, I was on the safe side with my loss limit.
Around midnight the 15th of december my buy limit order was triggered.

When the course went through my support line point 5, I pulled the stop on the Zero. So I could not lose any more money. I used to take profits too early, today I just let the course go. Of course, the course also ran back a few times and I was stopped out at 0. But there are always new opportunities and that builds me up in this moment again.

The course went up above the point 5 and the TP was reached. At point 5, the support line could now become the resistance line. Thereafter, the course turned as if by magic in the same zone where previously dominated the offer. The course went back a bit and where did he turn? Exactly on my resistance line, where previously dominated the demand (Figure 1 point 5.) Then it went back up again.

I could have reached 150 pip. That's right, I was very satisfied with 90 Pip. I could have been stopped out, too. That's right, that happened to me many times, but not this time. However, I could have lived well with 7 pip loss plus spread.

The advantage of this approach is that you can set your limit order and then take care of other things. The supply zones and demand zones often show me what could possibly happen.

Expected Profit: 90 pip
Risk: 7 pip plus spread plus guaranteed stop = 9 pip

In this case, the chance risk ratio was 10. That means I could take 10 loss trades for this trade and have had no loss. However, my strategies focus less on the ratio between opportunity and risk, since the opportunities are based on pure assumptions anyway.

Of course, luck must be something on your side, after all, there are enough situations where I overlooked something or the market just did not react as I would have liked. In addition, one often has to wait a long time until the right opportunity arises. But since there are other currency pairs as well, the chances of finding a suitable opportunity are relatively high.

These situations can be trained very well.



The strategy tester is ideal for this. In Metatrader 4 under "View" you will find this strategy tester. When you open it, you can find all settings in the bottom window. You can work with all the indicators you need. It would be an advantage if you have additional course data available. For me, the 15 M Chart begins in 1971, with optimal price data available only from 1984. In Blog 149 you can find a video on how to get this course data.



Start the strategy tester and then add all the indicators you need. Set the screen as it suits you best. With the slider (blue circle) you can set the speed with which the candles form. Now you can search for Equilibrium and draw in your zones. Then pull the slider to the right and the course starts to run. Now you can see how the course responds to your zones.

You can play this game in all time levels with all currency pairs, commodities, precious metals or indicia. It is a very efficient training, but only with past courses. So you are also able to train at the weekend on a virtual forex market. If you already know the price history of your currency pair from the past, choose an unknown currency pair for training.

With that helped a lot, I have often watched only the pure running course and found that I have learned so much more than if I had looked at a static chart image. Try it yourself and you'll see that you get better and better over time without having to spend money.

I wish you a great weekend and a good start to trading on Monday.

Best regards