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Trap the Market

  • #501
  • Jan 28, 2018 2:47pm Jan 28, 2018 2:47pm
If you are tracking the EURUSD this week, you may be seeing a technically bullish pair; at least the EUR is technically stronger than the USD at the moment. But there is need to be wary of the market mood and the location of price action. You may want to ask: How bullish is 'bullish?' Basically, realize that price action on the EURUSD is operating in a strong resistance zone and the intra-day chart (H4) shows price action contained in a symmetrical triangle. It is important to wait for clarity of price action in the first 1-2 days of trading this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Technical_Update_H4_28th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 34 KB
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  • #502
  • Edited 4:16am Jan 30, 2018 4:02am | Edited 4:16am
Just sharing

One important area you can enhance your chance of trading success, and thus trap the market, is 'precisely' identifying turning zones. You then use a stop order to enter a trade in such a zone once you have a setup on your trading time frame. For example, if you use H4 time frame for trade setup, identify turning zones based on the market direction on the D1 or W1 time frame. The ability to properly identify and map such zones should be cultivated beyond using indicators for trading. With experience, the trader will be able to map high-quality turning zones.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
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  • #503
  • Jan 30, 2018 4:25am Jan 30, 2018 4:25am
Let us look at what is happening to GBPUSD right now. It is basically in a bearish mood but it is retracing northward atm to enter a turning zone on the D1 time frame imho. See the D1 chart attached for a turning zone bound in 'deepblue' horizontal lines. It is clearer on the attached H1 chart.

I may be wrong. Trade safe ad prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Technical_Update_D1_30th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 35 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Technical_Update_H1_30th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 38 KB


Quoting KeenPips
Just sharing One important area you can enhance your chance of trading success, and thus trap the market, is 'precisely' identifying turning zones. You then use a stop order to enter a trade in such a zone once you have a setup on your trading time frame. For example, if you use H4 time frame for trade setup, identify turning zones based on the market direction on the D1 or W1 time frame. The ability to properly identify and map such zones should be cultivated beyond using indicators for trading. With experience, the trader will be able to map high-quality...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #504
  • Jan 30, 2018 4:31am Jan 30, 2018 4:31am
I am waiting to trade the pair southward within that zone once it gives me a setup on the H4 time frame (my setup time frame).

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Let us look at what is happening to GBPUSD right now. It is basically in a bearish mood but it is retracing northward atm to enter a turning zone on the D1 time frame imho. See the D1 chart attached for a turning zone bound in 'deepblue' horizontal lines. It is clearer on the attached H1 chart. I may be wrong. Trade safe ad prosper. KP {image} {image} {quote}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #505
  • Jan 30, 2018 6:09am Jan 30, 2018 6:09am
Structure-based trading is central to the trader's ability to keep things superbly simple. But 'keeping it superbly simple' (KISS) comes with experience. Here's a video that you may find helpful.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Inserted Video
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  • #506
  • Jan 31, 2018 1:30am Jan 31, 2018 1:30am
Price action entered the zone and was sideways for a long while. There was no bearish setup on the H4 time frame. The doji-like candlesticks formed were not convincing to me for a northward trade even though from hindsight we have some pips to the north.

I am not always right. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
I am waiting to trade the pair southward within that zone once it gives me a setup on the H4 time frame (my setup time frame). KP {quote}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #507
  • Jan 31, 2018 1:36am Jan 31, 2018 1:36am
Price action entered the zone and was sideways for a long while. Doji-like candlesticks formed which set up for a northward trade even though the setup was not convincing to me and I didn't go long. I look for a stronger setup for swing trading.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Let us look at what is happening to GBPUSD right now. It is basically in a bearish mood but it is retracing northward atm to enter a turning zone on the D1 time frame imho. See the D1 chart attached for a turning zone bound in 'deepblue' horizontal lines. It is clearer on the attached H1 chart. I may be wrong. Trade safe ad prosper. KP {image} {image} {quote}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #508
  • Jan 31, 2018 4:06am Jan 31, 2018 4:06am
Here's a technical update on the zone I was watching yesterday on GBPUSD. Price action was sideways at the zone (bound in deepblue coloured lines) for a long while. It went northward for a while for about 60 pips and turned around at the 61.8 Fib zone of the drop from the high of January 25, 2018. It gave a bearish engulfing setup on the H1 time frame but it was not significant enough. So there was need for me to wait for a price action follow through. Based on the W1 time frame I was holding a bearish bias, a reason why I did not go long yesterday at the zone. Price action is now at the zone and I have taken a southward trade. My stop loss is a few pips above the 61.8 Fib zone.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Technical_Update_H4_31_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 42 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Technical_Update_H1_31_Jan.,_2017.png Size: 45 KB


Quoting KeenPips
Price action entered the zone and was sideways for a long while. Doji-like candlesticks formed which set up for a northward trade even though the setup was not convincing to me and I didn't go long. I look for a stronger setup for swing trading. Trade safe and prosper. KP {quote}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #509
  • Jan 31, 2018 4:30am Jan 31, 2018 4:30am
Why am I taking this trade so close to a high impact USD fundamental news? Because I am ready to risk the stop loss. As the weekly bias is southward, if market's perception of the fundamental news favours my direction I stand to gain more than I lose. Besides, fundamental news by themselves do not move price action; it is how the market perceives and reacts to the news.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Here's a technical update on the zone I was watching yesterday on GBPUSD. Price action was sideways at the zone (bound in deepblue coloured lines) for a long while. It went northward for a while for about 60 pips and turned around at the 61.8 Fib zone of the drop from the high of January 25, 2018. It gave a bearish engulfing setup on the H1 time frame but it was not significant enough. So there was need for me to wait for a price action follow through. Based on the W1 time frame I was holding a bearish bias, a reason why I did not go long yesterday...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #510
  • Feb 4, 2018 3:35pm Feb 4, 2018 3:35pm
Here's my technical outlook on the GBPUSD.

On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a consolidation mode (bound in chocolate coloured lines). As the location of price action is too far from the mean and in confluence with a resistance zone, we may expect a pullback before any further northward momentum can materialize. Price action may retrace to the monthly central pivot (around 1.39960) and may extend to the next support around the 1.38350 area. Techically the short-term mode favours bears but the medium-term direction is technically synced with bulls. That will be the case unless price action breaks below a support trendine (navy) from the low of November 13, 2017 on a daily close basis.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_4th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 38 KB
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  • #511
  • Feb 4, 2018 3:51pm Feb 4, 2018 3:51pm
I hold a short-term bearish bias on this pair. I will maintain this bias until price action prints a bullish set-up after its southward retracement, perhaps around the 1.38350 area.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Here's my technical outlook on the GBPUSD. On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a consolidation mode (bound in chocolate coloured lines). As the location of price action is too far from the mean and in confluence with a resistance zone, we may expect a pullback before any further northward momentum can materialize. Price action may retrace to the monthly central pivot (around 1.39960) and may extend to the next support around the 1.38350 area. Techically the short-term mode favours bears but the medium-term direction is technically...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #512
  • Feb 11, 2018 3:10pm Feb 11, 2018 3:10pm
If you are tracking AUDJPY this week, consider the following technical perspective.

The pair has been ranging for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending triangle (chocolate) since November 2016. Last week, a relatively big bearish candlestick broke the wedge support line and hit the immediate horizontal support around the 83.990 area. However, before the close of the weekly session, bulls managed to push price action up to the 85.010 area. It should be noted that price action since October 2017 has been ranging in the 38.2 – 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the swing down from the high of November 2014 to the low of June 2016. Much likely we may expect bears to take the price action further southward should they break below the 83.990 area, which is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib and a significant horizontal support. Looking left of the attached weekly chart, we can see that the impulsive wave is southward.

On the daily time frame, recent price action is around the support line of the ascending triangle seen on the weekly time frame. Bulls were curtailing the gains made by bears in the early part of last week but the order flow context is very much under the influence of bears. However, we may see a retracement northward or a sideways operation in the early part of this week before further southward momentum is achieved, moreso that price action is a bit far (more than 130 pips) from the mean. A likely target of bulls for any retracement is the 86.230 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_11th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 48 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_11th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 46 KB
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  • #513
  • Feb 11, 2018 3:38pm Feb 11, 2018 3:38pm
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for a retracement of price action to within the 85.010/86.230 zone before I look for a sell trading opportunity.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
If you are tracking AUDJPY this week, consider the following technical perspective. The pair has been ranging for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending triangle (chocolate) since November 2016. Last week, a relatively big bearish candlestick broke the wedge support line and hit the immediate horizontal support around the 83.990 area. However, before the close of the weekly session, bulls managed to push price action up to the 85.010 area. It should be noted that price action since October 2017 has...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #514
  • Feb 12, 2018 3:11pm Feb 12, 2018 3:11pm
Here's a technical update on the AUDUSD.

Technically the pair is struggling in the middle of a few consolidation patterns - a weekly ascending channel (chocolate lines) and its mid-line and a support trendline (navy) from the daily time frame. Basically, the current mode is up but there is little potential for much gain until the mid-line is broken.

Trade safe and prosper


KP


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_Technical_Update_D1_12th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 54 KB
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  • #515
  • Feb 14, 2018 6:00am Feb 14, 2018 6:00am
Just Sharing

Technically, I favour scenario trading. You anticipate alternative market scenarios and wait for a feasible trade setup as the market meets one of the scenarios.

KP
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  • #516
  • Feb 15, 2018 6:21am Feb 15, 2018 6:21am
Traders often go into the market with a bias, at least a directional bias. But creating alternative scenarios; e.g. based on ranging, bullish and bearish market mode, is a largely safe-proof approach to the market. Based on the scenarios created, an 'if-then' strategy is developed to deal with whichever scenario the market eventually presents.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Just Sharing Technically, I favour scenario trading. You anticipate alternative market scenarios and wait for a feasible trade setup as the market meets one of the scenarios. KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #517
  • Feb 16, 2018 4:39am Feb 16, 2018 4:39am
Have you been worried about the recent behavour of EURUSD? Let the bigger market outlook guide you. Here's my technical viewpoint. Technically, the EURUSD is northward bearing and has been so for a long while. The recent southward mode, not yet fully recovered, is merely a pullback and for profit taking. The price action on the pair is now entering a significant resistance zone last visited in May 2014 but there is room for further pullback or sideways operation before the zone is hit. This zone is in confluence with, or proximal to, the 68.2 Fib area of the southward drop from the high of May 2014. See attached MN chart (significant resistance zone is bound by magenta coloured lines).

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Tech._Update_MN_16th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 39 KB
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  • #518
  • Edited 4:13pm Feb 18, 2018 3:46pm | Edited 4:13pm
I hold a short-term bearish directional bias on the EURUSD. Here's my top-down technical perspective.

On the weekly time frame, price action has been ranging around the 1.22290/1.25420 area for four weeks. As price action has found it difficult to break above the resistance zone, it is likely that we see an attempt by the market to bear southward and regroup for another onslaught on the zone. Last week, an inverted hammer-like candlestick was formed around the zone; which portends the likelihood of a bearish follow through of price action in the days ahead. An ascending trendline (chocolate) from the low of April 2017 is still very much in play and bears may target a retest of the trendline. Such a move southward is likely to expose the horizontal support around the 1.20500 area. However, should bears fail to break down the trendline, bulls are likely to seize the initiative to turn around price action northward.

On the H4 time frame, price action has been consolidating in an ascending channel (magenta) for quite a while. Recent price action is bearing southward from the channel resistance area. An initial target of bears is the channel support or the horizontal support around the 1.22630 area. However, a micro-support trendline (navy) formed by recent price action may be a barrier for a southward move. So, should bears fail to clear this barrier, we may see bulls turn price action northward toward the channel resistance..

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_18th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 46 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_18th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 50 KB
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  • #519
  • Feb 20, 2018 7:52am Feb 20, 2018 7:52am
If you are tracking the USDJPY, consider this technical perspective. Although the market mood is disposed northward, it seems largely corrective; a mean reversion by price action. Bulls may be targeting the 107.320/107.820 zone (bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines) but a southward turnaround is likely to see bears target the immediate horizontal support around the 103.640 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Tech._Update_D1_20th_Feb.,_2018.png Size: 36 KB
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  • #520
  • Feb 20, 2018 10:08am Feb 20, 2018 10:08am
Understanding market makers' perspectives can improve your trading. Here's a video you may learn from.

KP

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