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NoPainNoGainOrAlwaysImproveYourself

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 11:20am Feb 13, 2018 5:37am | Edited 11:20am
Hi traders and analysts,

Reason for a journal creating:
I'm in constant search of ideas, like-minded people and partners. Here will be my hits, losses, testing of a supplemented strategy.

Idea:
everyone says study learn study learn blah blah blah. Nonsense! We already have some basis. To earn where no one can, create smth by yourself.

The Market is changeable and sometimes it seems simply does what it wants.
Its necessary to constantly change the existing strategy at the first unpredictable drawdown, or to accept strategy cant contain no drawdowns at all and then its necessary to create new strategies, test them and compare with the existing ones.

Strategy:
I dont have a complicated strategy, that no one can understands.
I use the supplemented strategy of the Elliots theory for the medium-term forecast, taking into account the internal causes of fundamental analysis.

Some time ago I created the thread with another interesting strategy. If interested, you can read here
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=580704

Cheers, Matt
  • #2
  • Feb 13, 2018 5:42am Feb 13, 2018 5:42am
Some for today
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  • #3
  • Feb 13, 2018 6:49am Feb 13, 2018 6:49am
Quoting Matt098
Hi traders and analysts, Reason for a journal creating: I'm in constant search of ideas, like-minded people and partners. Here will be my hits, losses, testing of a supplemented strategy. Idea: everyone says study learn study learn blah blah blah. Nonsense! We already have some basis. To earn where no one can, create smth by yourself. The Market is changeable and sometimes it seems simply does what it wants. Its necessary to constantly change the existing strategy at the first unpredictable drawdown, or to accept strategy cant contain no drawdowns...
I can agree with you on several points.
At first, you claim that constant study is nonsense. And that having enough basic knowledge you can build a profitable strategy. The only question is, what is the basis for you? Further, I absolutely agree with you that it is important to constantly look for something new, to be an explorer, in other words
The market is absolutely unstable, like an explosive gas. Traders can only try to predict its behavior. And everyone does it in their own way.
  • #4
  • Feb 13, 2018 11:08am Feb 13, 2018 11:08am
Quoting Mr.Rain
{quote}The only question is, what is the basis for you?
Hello Mr. Rain, greetings in this thread.
Saying that continuing forex education is nonsense, I meant that there are many people who say that we should constantly learn new theories, because the market is changing.
You can always learn theories and study and learn again and it'll be endless.
All these theories can only work when they are just developed, as soon as theories fall into the masses, they stop working. Practice gives a much greater result than an infinite set of theories.
Thats why its much more important to create own theories, to modify existing ones under own conditions, observations.

The basis is what constitutes the basis for all traders. For me personally this is the wave theory, standard support and resistance lines, moving averages.

I'm interested in your opinion, if you have something to share, I'll be glad to discuss.
  • #5
  • Feb 15, 2018 5:23am Feb 15, 2018 5:23am
Quoting Matt098
as soon as theories fall into the masses, they stop working.
I agree that is why
Quoting Matt098
forex education is nonsense

Quoting Matt098
I'm interested in your opinion, if you have something to share, I'll be glad to discuss.
That's great Matt098, I will look to brainstorm and critique ideas every few weekends.
I usually pursue ideas that are mechanical, sort of like EA's.


What are your thoughts on fractals:
A 5 candle pattern with a local high/low in the middle. Whenever this occurs the idea is that you place a pending order in the direction of the high/low. However, naturally there is no substantial edge to trading this way, as it is well known. 50/50
So it's basically using a 5 candle pattern to establish a local Support/Resistance, with the idea of breaking out.

Is it likely that a pattern can cause a specific reaction in the market?

Me, I've been thinking about considering fractals with specific traits, like maybe variations in tick volume, size, time like first one to occur after certain events/sessions, to see if there is an advantage. Also like, the first set of upper and lower fractals to form of the trading day, on whatever time-frame, could that then be treated as a local breakout zone?
Often the results vary from month to month, it seems over fit.
Is looking to trade fractals in your opinion sort gimmicky like repaint indicators, or is it worth looking into? If so I can share the specifics of what I was talking about.

-HMSR
HMSR
  • #6
  • Feb 15, 2018 7:49am Feb 15, 2018 7:49am
Quoting Matt098
..The Market is changeable and sometimes it seems simply does what it wants. Its necessary to constantly change the existing strategy at the first unpredictable drawdown, or to accept strategy cant contain no drawdowns at all and then its necessary to create new strategies, test them and compare with the existing ones. Strategy: I dont have a complicated strategy, that no one can understands. I use the supplemented strategy of the Elliots theory for the medium-term forecast, taking into account the internal causes of fundamental analysis.
Mr. Market is always right. There's No pattern nor indicator that can timing its mood. Its a game of probability. Your chances of getting more W than L depends upon on how you balance its movement. The market controls you, not the pattern nor the indicator controls the market. Just do it yourself....
  • #7
  • Edited 1:12pm Feb 15, 2018 11:39am | Edited 1:12pm
Quoting Hmsr
What are your thoughts on fractals: A 5 candle pattern with a local high/low in the middle. Whenever this occurs the idea is that you place a pending order in the direction of the high/low. However, naturally there is no substantial edge to trading this way, as it is well known. 50/50 So it's basically using a 5 candle pattern to establish a local Support/Resistance, with the idea of breaking out. Is it likely that a pattern can cause a specific reaction in the market?
you look in the right direction my friend.
5 is much more effective than 3. But I look to the 7, 9, 11 side and it doesnt have to be a breakdown, fractals can form reversal patterns as well.

Quoting Hmsr
Me, I've been thinking about considering fractals with specific traits, like maybe variations in tick volume, size, time like first one to occur after certain events/sessions, to see if there is an advantage.
Volumes are a separate topic. Volumes with the broker is simply a broker's volume, not the market ones. Real volumes of course are on interbank market but they are hard to get in good quality and in real time. Fractal patterns work and very efficiently. But very big players can break the pattern -> and trader gets a loss.
From my observations, time intervals and movement speed are more effective than fake volumes of a broker.

Quoting Hmsr
If so I can share the specifics of what I was talking about.
Please, be so kind

Cheers, Matt
  • #8
  • Feb 15, 2018 11:48am Feb 15, 2018 11:48am
Quoting PXchange
{quote} Mr. Market is always right. There's No pattern nor indicator that can timing its mood. Its a game of probability. Your chances of getting more W than L depends upon on how you balance its movement. The market controls you, not the pattern nor the indicator controls the market. Just do it yourself....
Thanks for your opinion. If there were no patterns and indicators that help everyone in trading, trading strategies would be mathematical. The Ilan principle. But we all see that this is not so. There're strategies that increase volume only in the course of a deposit growth.
  • #9
  • Edited 1:46pm Feb 15, 2018 1:08pm | Edited 1:46pm
Quoting Matt098
Some for today {image} {image}
BTW
not 190 pips but 224 pips from the previous screenshot... for now
Congrats to all who'd get the whole momentum.
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  • #10
  • Feb 16, 2018 4:29am Feb 16, 2018 4:29am
Quoting Matt098
{quote} BTW not 190 pips but 224 pips from the previous screenshot... for now Congrats to all who'd get the whole momentum. {image}
I find the discussion on this thread so interesting. Congratulations on the successful transaction. Since you mentioned fractals, I 'd like to ask about what you think about analyzing candlestick patterns (Engulfing, Doji, hammer, etc.), do you have any experience using it? Also, I 'd like to ask your advice if you don't mind. Could there be some advantages if using candlestick analysis in combination with wave theory, for example? Can such a mixture improve the accuracy of entry if I start from candlestick analysis when opening a deal and analyze market fluctuations using wave theory?
  • #11
  • Feb 19, 2018 1:52am Feb 19, 2018 1:52am
Hi there, so I'll keep it short to keep it going,

with fractals I have noticed that on the 5m frames, there can be different times and shapes that can affect the win-rate base on backtested price. So for example, if at the start of the US session, a fractal formed, and you placed a pending order at the top of suppose an upward facing fractal, and vice versa, with a stoploss at the bound of the last 3 bars of the fractal or the 5 bars of the whole fractal, and tp same distance, I had found that in the last month the winrate with 1:1 risk is about 60% or significantly higher, so too the session after that. I am fearful it over fit the past data though.

Than there are different shapes, so like if the middle bar of the fractal, engulfs the next two bars, or all other 4 bars of the entire fractal, You place a pending order like above. I have noticed that similarly for US session and the session after, the winrate with 1:1 RR is around 60% or higher. Using 5m tf.

A while ago I was looking at also, what happens if at the start of the day, an upper and lower fractal form and create breakout price zones, if that region is broken, what is the winrate with 1:1 rr, I had found that on some currencies the winrate was higher, and on some closer to 50%. Was looking on around the 5m and 15m timeframes.


However, I have found that the further you go back in time, there are segments where the profitability falls etc. Also I am not sure how to verify if these are going to work in the future.

Additionally, that issue is prevalent in another kind of strategy, straddling the 3 main market sessions, some times you get periods of 60% winrates or higher, sometimes it's very bad. I am unable to to predict whether the strategy will behave well or bad into the future, as it varies in the past.

None of the stuff mentioned above have any influence from markets, very much like algorithms. They do however identify times of significance as there are variations in how the markets will behave for periods.
Do you have any suggestions to make these strats successful?



I wasn't able to add the specifics of data as I had initially intended, as this weekend I got caught up in family events.

Best Regards
-Nayan
HMSR
  • #12
  • Feb 19, 2018 6:12am Feb 19, 2018 6:12am
Quoting Hmsr
Hi there,
Do you have any suggestions to make these strats successful? I wasn't able to add the specifics of data as I had initially intended, as this weekend I got caught up in family events. Best Regards -Nayan
Hi Nayan, thanks for the detailed description.
I agree with you. The American session is very interesting in itself. If high or low is formed, the trend keeps till the end of the session.
You give very interesting examples below. If you dont mind give your description graphically, so we can better understand each other and discuss these patterns in details.
Cheers, Matt
  • #13
  • Feb 19, 2018 6:23am Feb 19, 2018 6:23am
Quoting Barrg1
{quote} I find the discussion on this thread so interesting. Congratulations on the successful transaction. Since you mentioned fractals, I 'd like to ask about what you think about analyzing candlestick patterns (Engulfing, Doji, hammer, etc.), do you have any experience using it? Also, I 'd like to ask your advice if you don't mind. Could there be some advantages if using candlestick analysis in combination with wave theory, for example? Can such a mixture improve the accuracy of entry if I start from candlestick analysis when opening a deal and...
Let me comment out.
I have absolutely negative experience of using these candle shapes. This is difficult to determine under conditions of high volatility. For example, RSI, will work much more efficiently in determining the trend reversal. And if you want to try to find the reversal points and the beginning of the wave, then better use Ichimoku or RSI.
  • #14
  • Feb 19, 2018 7:01am Feb 19, 2018 7:01am
Quoting Barrg1
{quote} I find the discussion on this thread so interesting. Congratulations on the successful transaction. Could there be some advantages if using candlestick analysis in combination with wave theory, for example?
Standard candlestick analysis in combination with the wave theory shows good results. But any standard analysis needs to be adapted for you. If you like candlestick patterns, much more effective to use quotes from banks or smth, cuz standard broker charts quite often give false signals.
  • #15
  • Feb 19, 2018 7:10am Feb 19, 2018 7:10am
Quoting Matt098
{quote} BTW not 190 pips but 224 pips from the previous screenshot... for now Congrats to all who'd get the whole momentum. {image}
Wow! How did you know?

Thanks for your answer before.
Do you think that there is enough space on the forex market for a completely new theory that will be an alternative to the current basic theories? And can we ever call the current basic theories the old school?
I believe that the behavior of the market should change for this, perhaps because of serious fundamental events.

So, actually what do you think about the current week?
  • #16
  • Feb 22, 2018 9:22am Feb 22, 2018 9:22am
Quoting Mr.Rain
{quote} Wow! How did you know? Thanks for your answer before. Do you think that there is enough space on the forex market for a completely new theory that will be an alternative to the current basic theories? And can we ever call the current basic theories the old school? I believe that the behavior of the market should change for this, perhaps because of serious fundamental events. So, actually what do you think about the current week?
Each trader chooses a convenient and effective indicator for himself. I think, Ichimoku is more informative than the standard RSA. But this is only my opinion. On the other hand, almost all indicators are based on moving averages.
As soon as an alternative theory is published, it will stop making money :-)
The current week went well. This week I've closed several good deals.
As for now and for current account...
A pound again. There's a probability of upward movement, to a strong level there is where to grow. But I'm for the bears now, that you can perfectly observe by my screenshots.

Cheers, Matt
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  • #17
  • Feb 23, 2018 4:12am Feb 23, 2018 4:12am
Quoting Mr.Rain
{quote} Let me comment out. I have absolutely negative experience of using these candle shapes. This is difficult to determine under conditions of high volatility. For example, RSI, will work much more efficiently in determining the trend reversal. And if you want to try to find the reversal points and the beginning of the wave, then better use Ichimoku or RSI.
Thank you for your opinion and piece of advice. I know that candle patterns - this is not suitable for everyone and is already an obsolete way, but I still use it as an auxiliary tool.
  • #18
  • Feb 23, 2018 4:37am Feb 23, 2018 4:37am
Quoting Matt098
{quote} Standard candlestick analysis in combination with the wave theory shows good results. But any standard analysis needs to be adapted for you. If you like candlestick patterns, much more effective to use quotes from banks or smth, cuz standard broker charts quite often give false signals.
Yes, you wrote absolutely accurately, and it is better to use the averaged indicators to determine the strength of the trend, instead of candlestick analysis, which can show a false signal due to interference. But often I use candle patterns on D1, H4. Hardly the quotes can differ on such large timeframes.
I'm following your updates on the account. Do you trade GBP more often?
By the way, how do you see the impact of the news (BOE Ramsden Speech and Fed's William Dudley speech) to the GBPUSD market today?
  • #19
  • Feb 23, 2018 5:46am Feb 23, 2018 5:46am
Quoting Barrg1
{quote} Yes, you wrote absolutely accurately, and it is better to use the averaged indicators to determine the strength of the trend, instead of candlestick analysis, which can show a false signal due to interference. But often I use candle patterns on D1, H4. Hardly the quotes can differ on such large timeframes. I'm following your updates on the account. Do you trade GBP more often? By the way, how do you see the impact of the news (BOE Ramsden Speech and Fed's William Dudley speech) to the GBPUSD market today?
Thanks. I trade majors, yen, more rarely crosses. Yes, their speeches affect the Market of course. GDP was considered a little lower than previous quarters, I think its more likely reflect the medium fall of gbp as I mentioned earlier. We didnt particularly feel it because of the dollar falling so far...
  • #20
  • Feb 27, 2018 9:29am Feb 27, 2018 9:29am
Quoting Matt098
Idea: everyone says study learn study learn blah blah blah. Nonsense! We already have some basis. To earn where no one can, create smth by yourself.
Hey Matt
It's nice to see you do not stop looking for new opportunities for earning in this greedy and difficult market
And this is your phrase exactly about my thoughts.
This is exactly what I also noticed in one of threads on FF.
By the way, I note that your last screenshot was very accurate.
The pound just went up to the resistance line, and then went down and continues to go by the way ...
I subscribe to your journal. Thank you
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