Okay...here it goes

got stopped when i stepped away!!!


shucks man.. still think Long is the way to go

won't be comfortable until London drops whatever bomb it plans on dropping.

But certainly feeling better.

When the retrace completes we should be in the 1.8940's range, but I'm expecting a bounce off the 1.8900-1.8910 range before it gets there.

Having said that...this is a retrace...my success on predicting retrace behavior is, like, 10%.

in fact I'm in long at the moment....I just hope London doesn't come in and smash this thing lower.

well, keep the stop tight...

here's another angle.. all the more our stops should be tight

edit: will we see a short term bounce before the medium term decline??

I just don't see it breaking 1.88 before bouncing. Also, I wish I could download the plot you posted...a fairly clear five wave cycle with extended 3 wave is all within the downtrend bars. Moreover, its complete to the correct fib levels. (1.8812 was the predicted bottom). So thats why I'm playing the rebound...I think the corrective abc cycle is upon us.

I dropped my stop to 1.879 just before london...volatility pick up pushed us just below. 1.88 briefly, but at the moment were back up around 1.8810. Watching and waiting for London to decide which way it wants to go.

well i'm going to be away for couple of hours..

hope to see a change by then

Okay....I'm admitting it....I'm still in.

I know, complete lack of self control, but the bottom of this thing is around here somewhere.

So, the upshot...I'm looking at 1.8786 at the moment and all of my 40 pips gains are gone...but I'm still holding on.

Efex....where are you when I need a ***** slapping!?!

The bottom was nowhere around there.

Okay....valuable lesson. Expensive one to. Maybe I'll learn it someday.

you know.. i feel the same way..

but you realise we have been losing cos we have been trying to trade the bounce right?

is it time we trade the trend instead???

again i am reminded of painful lesson 2...

Even more stupid that I was trying for the bounce when I've never really watched how the currency behaves when it does it.

Even more ridiculous that I was holding 1 lot for the trend and 2 trying to catch the bounce.

Even more ridiculous that one of my fib numbers was 1.8812 and the other was 1.8740 and I thought...theres no way a currency moves that much in one night....guess what...it does.

....so many things wrong.

Licking my wounds for this week....otherwise I'll just trade angry. That should give cable time to bounce and then I'll try and get him resuming his trend.

Bounces might be perfectly fine to trade....ASSUMING ITS BOUNCING. We lost pips trying to catch the bounce before the bounce. Why? This bloody currency moves 50 and 60 pips on bounces and 100's of pips on trends. SO why not sacrifice 10-20 pips and only look for 20 pips out of the bounce. In other words, its like a upper limit on market efficiency. You'll never be able to get 100% of all the moves...if you try you'll die. On the other hand if you take what the market gives, say 25-30% of the moves, you can do it with much less risk.

In elliot wave terms that means wait for first and second waves of the trend, or bounce, to devlop before getting in. Or...if your impulsive and want to try and get in on 1,2,4,a, or b get in really really small and keep a tight stop....because 50/50 your wrong.

one of the reasons i suggested we looked at cable instead of kiwi was because cable moves this way almost all the time

so my intention was to try and catch 30 pips a day on the move because it is fully capable of moving 100+ a day

so i must try to control and catch the trend instead of the bounce

for anyone that reads my journal. I've had a family emergency and will be away from trading for a bit.

hope it turns out fine soon!

I wish it is not of big consideration and everything is fine.

After a personal tragedy one tends to be a bit more introspective than normal. I think I've come out with a more balanced view of things...this forex thing inclusive.

I'm going to learn to trade forex well. I may not excel at it at first, but I will be profitable. At the moment, I'm not. Philisophically, my losses amount to learning. I may continue to lose, I may turn profitable (hopefully), so long as I'm learning and not remaking the same stupid errors and blunders, I'm happy.

Another way of looking at it: how much do lots of people spend on personal hobbies? I had a buddy who's personal hobby of travel blew about 1k a month. I've known artists that blow 250 a month....you get the idea. Forex is my current hobby. And if I get good at it, the dollar direction might reverse.

So...back in the saddle.

Looking at the daily charts it would seem that now is a pretty good time to sell GBP-USD. So I've shorted one lot at 1.8681 with a stop at 1.8710. I'm targeting mid 1.8400's assuming this will be a fifth wave of an impulse down that started in mid September.

Incidentally, UK retail is out tonight, so I'm waffling over holding throught the announcement or exiting before. Game time decision.

Not exactly a charmed restart . Que sera sera. I still think in the long run cable moves lower. I'm watching for another opportunity to enter short...maybe on the rebreak of 1.8700 lower....i.e. 1.8690 or so.

to short on a re-break of 1.8700 at 1.8690. Stop kicks in at 1.8710 again on the rebreak...assuming it triggers.

We'll see.

So I cancelled my market order and shorted at 1.8720 just prior to the retail sales release. Figured cable didn't have much more gas to go up. Release came in GBP negative and I closed the position when it hit 1.8695.

Probably could have held out for more but retail sales tends to be wippy.

In any case for today I'm -4 pips, and the day ain't over yet.