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The Week Ahead: Weak USD, Strong EUR, and BoC-Driven CAD in Focus

The latter half of the past week saw a resumption of pronounced bearish sentiment hit the US dollar once again, as concerns over persistently weak US inflation (reinforced by lagging producer price data), strength in the euro, and rumors of China rethinking its US debt purchases helped lead to a sharp, extended sell-off for the greenback.

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2r4hUIX

The Week Ahead: Key Central Bank Decisions (BoJ, ECB) in Focus

The past week featured some key economic events, including the Bank of Canada’s interest rate and policy decision, and Australia’s latest employment data release. Stealing the limelight from these events, however, was drama surrounding a possible US government shutdown if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement by Friday night, as well as a sharp plunge in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies due to reports of tightening regulations in Asia.


The week ahead will likely feature heightened volatility for currency markets, depending in part on developments in US government efforts to avert a shutdown, as well as two major central bank decisions from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank.

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Gold undermined as rising yields offset support from stock market sell-off


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Week Ahead: New Fed Chair in focus as markets mull interest rate trajectory

The US dollar was still seeking direction while equity markets bounced back on Friday after a week of persistently volatile trading, as interest rates and Federal Reserve speculation continued to dominate headlines. The Fed again took center stage this past week, with Wednesday’s release of minutes from the central bank’s last FOMC meeting in late January, when interest rates were kept unchanged as expected.


Markets whipsawed severely on the release of those minutes, as investors initially took the Fed’s message to be somewhat dovish – boosting stocks and pressuring the dollar – but then digested the hawkish aspects of the minutes, reversing the initial market reactions.

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2EQtlpP

Are investors overreacting to Cohn’s resignation?

Investors panicked in response to Gary Cohn’s unexpected – although not entirely surprising – announcement that he’s resigning from his post as Donald Trump’s top economic adviser late in the day yesterday. The market’s reaction suggests investors are now even more concerned that with one of Trump administration’s strongest free trade advocates gone, that the US trade policy will head further into protectionist territory.


Investors are wondering how Cohn’s resignation will impact US trade policies and whether it will ignite a trade war, and what that may mean for monetary policy. Will Donald Trump now enact those hefty tariffs on steel and aluminium imports?

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2Hdml7b

NFP Forecast and Potential USD Reaction


For live coverage of the US Non-Farm Payroll report and real time analysis of what the numbers may mean for monetary policy expectations and the US dollar moving forward, join our Head of Research, James Chen, in a live webinar starting at 8 AM New York time on Friday, March 9th http://on.forex.com/2oZG7M5

NEW cryptocurrencies now available with FOREX.com UK


Our goal is to give you opportunities. That is why we are expanding your trading options to include Ethereum and Bitcoin* against AUD, EUR, and GBP in addition to USD.


Why trade cryptocurrencies instead of buy?

1. You can sell/short cryptos just as easily as you can buy
2. Tap into the market opportunity without taking ownership of the asset
3. Leverage allows you to take a position with less capital (increased leverage increases your risk)
4. No need to create or pay for a virtual wallet to store and protect your cryptocurrencies

[LEARN MORE]

How to Trade Cryptocurrencies

1. Join us for a free webinar.
2. Choose from either session:
3. Thursday, March 22nd at 19:00 GMT, or
4. Thursday, March 29th at 18:00 GMT (19:00 BST).

[REGISTER]


Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. The heightened volatility brings opportunity but also a greater degree of risk. Make sure you fully understand the risk before you trade.


*Spot Ethereum and Bitcoin trading are not available in the US at this time, but US residents now have access to Bitcoin futures trading.

Aside from renewed market turbulence stemming in part from ongoing political concerns in the US, positive news from the UK and EU on Monday regarding progress on a new Brexit transition deal prompted a strong rally for the British pound.


Will GBP/USD rise to re-test highs on Brexit transition deal and BoE?

Get the full story http://on.forex.com/2popv1r

EUR/USD climbs as ECB officials fuel end of QE speculation


Ahead of next week’s major central bank meetings and key data releases, there have been some interesting moves in the markets with the EUR/USD in particular showing relative strength. Although the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates next week, it is the European Central Bank which all of a sudden is looking to be the more anticipated meeting.

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2JgIrLG

EUR/USD: “World Cup Week” for Economic Data

The euro is the strongest major currency so far in World Cup kickoff week, perhaps reflecting the fact that three of the four biggest favorites for the tournament hail from the Eurozone.


More likely though, EUR/USD traders are keying in on a week chock full of key economic developments to help shape trade in the world’s most widely-traded currency pair:

1. Tuesday: German ZEW Survey (9:00 GMT) & US CPI (12:30 GMT). The headlines out of the Trump-Kim Nuclear Summit could also have an impact on all markets.
2. Wednesday: US PPI (12:30 GMT) & FOMC Interest Rate Decision/Statement/Press Conference (18:00-19:30 GMT)
3. Thursday: ECB Meeting/Press Conference (11:45- 13:30 GMT) & US Retail Sales (12:30 GMT)
4. Friday: Eurozone Final CPI (9:00 GMT) & US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization (13:15 GMT)

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2sODM9B

USD/JPY hit by dollar weakness and BoJ speculation

For now though the USD/JPY is clinging onto an important bullish trend line after the rally came to an abrupt halt around the 113 handle last week.


While a couple of important support levels such as 112.05 and 111.35 have broken down, the USD/JPY is yet to break its market structure of higher highs and higher lows. But if the most recent low at 110.80 breaks, then this would be a bearish development in the short-term outlook.

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2uLILsj

Super Week Ahead: BOE, BOJ, FED and NFP

Here is a summary of next week’s data highlights:

1. Tuesday: China manufacturing PMI, BOJ and Eurozone CPI
2. Wednesday: New Zealand employment figures (late Tuesday BST/EDT); ADP private sector payrolls report, ISM Manufacturing PMI and FOMC
3. Thursday: BOE rate decision (hike expected) and inflation report
4. Friday: Aussie retail sales, UK services PMI, NFP and ISM services PMI

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2v6eGTQ

Tonight’s BOJ meeting could well be one of the more interesting of this week’s events…and no, that’s not a typo!

Japan’s central bank has left its primary interest rate essentially unchanged in the -0.1% to 0.00% range since late 2010, preferring to conduct monetary policy through its asset purchase program (QQE).

Source: TradingView and FOREX.com

Some market participants believe this program of stock and bond buying could be meaningfully changed for the first time since it was enacted in 2016.

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2LEcvCg

NFP Preview: Tired King Dollar Requires Big Beat

Source: TradingView and FOREX.com. Please note, this product is not available to US clients

The consensus expectations for Friday’s headline non-farm payrolls data point to around 190,000 jobs added in July, after June’s forecast-beating 213,000 print. The July unemployment rate is expected to have dropped back to 3.9% after it unexpectedly rose to 4.0% in June from 3.8% previously. In terms of wage growth, average hourly earnings are expected to have increased by 0.3% after last month’s slightly weaker-than-expected 0.2% increase.

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2n7VzoY

Dollar extends post NFP gains

Source: TradingView and FOREX.com

The dollar has remained bid against most currencies post Friday’s US jobs report. The greenback rose on Friday in reaction to the mixed-bag nonfarm payrolls report which showed a weaker-than-expected headline number, but that was offset by positive revisions to the previous reports and a decent but expected rise in average hourly earnings figure.

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2LZ4Eze

What a week it has been!

The biggest story this week was perhaps the easing of trade wars as China apparently blinked first in its dispute with the US. Global stock markets, led by China, and base metal prices all staged a relief rally. In Europe, Brexit remained in focus and the incoming mixed headlines tossed the pound around throughout the week.

Source: TradingView and FOREX.com

Looking ahead to next week, we have two major central bank meetings on the agenda, namely the US Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of New Zealand both on Wednesday, while in terms of data the economic calendar will be light. It will be also be interesting to see how the EU would respond to Theresa May’s speech.

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USD/JPY in danger of breakdown as stocks weaken again


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NFP Preview: Dollar drops ahead of US jobs report


Will the nonfarm payrolls report help to limit the downside for the buck, or will the selling accelerate in what has been a poor start to the penultimate month of the year?

Get the full story https://on.forex.com/2CUKG2M

GBP/JPY arrives at critical juncture as Brexit vote looms

The GBP/JPY has staged an impressive rally off its 2019 low at 131.95 which it hit on the January 2. Ahead of the Brexit vote, it has now reached the pivotal technical area between 139.35 and 140.00. This range was the last support prior to the latest breakdown. Once support, this region could turn into resistance going forward. But if the bulls reclaim this resistance zone then rates could push further higher in the short-term, with the next potential resistance coming in at 141.60.



Meanwhile, the next support levels come in at 137.65 and 136.80 respectively. If the latter breaks, say, on the back of the Brexit vote on Tuesday, then we wouldn’t rule out a potential drop towards the next psychological level around 130.00. In any case, traders need to be extra vigilant to the prospects of price spikes, flash crashes, and indeed flash melt ups, and take appropriate measures to minimise these risks. Good traders are, above all, good risk managers.


You’re invited to a special Brexit webinar

On Tuesday, January 15 the UK Parliament will vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Political analysts are predicting a rejection in the Commons, which could lead to several different outcomes.

Join our market analyst Fawad Razaqzada on the day of the vote to look at how the vote could unfold and what the different scenarios could mean for the markets.

1. Date: Tuesday, January 15, 2019
2. Time: 8:00 AM ET / 1300 GMT

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