Plan the Trade

Start small work your way up. You got to be in it to win it

Thanks buddy , keep up the good work

Guys (and girls!), we all know the route by now. Pullbacks to prior Supply/Demand, utilising 123's or 2B's etc.

I will continue posting some longer term charts just as a hobby and more of interest than actual trade set-ups.

I've posted a few recently, several of which have been accurate to varying degrees, but i have not profited from any of them, (Nasdaq back to sub 6,300, Dax to 12K, Bitcoin to $5k etc).

The statement 'i have not profited from any of them' is the point. Even when you have a long term outlook, you will always panic that a big pullback is just around the corner and bail out way too soon. That means, for the initial large risk, you do not make the most of it.

My trading for years resulted in this. You become a 'yo-yo' trader. Making a bit and giving it back. By trading virtually the smallest timescales available, in the most liquid and volatile stock market i've ever seen, this factor is eliminated. Most trades need to withstand the first pullback, but thereafter the NQ loves to get to where she is going to go without messing about!

Right then, back to my original point.

I wanted to post a daily chart of the Nasdaq and the current state of play with Bitcoin. I stated yesterday that the similarities between the Tech bubble bursting and the fall out from Bitcoins rise are incredibly similar, but...

Will Bitcoin survive? If it does will it follow a similar pattern. Granted, it is moving at a much faster pace than any other bubble that i can think of, but even so...

The Daily Nasdaq;



Current Daily Bitcoin;



If Bitcoin survives... Here is why there is never usually any rush to catch the 'falling knife'. Let PA show you the way. Waves 1&2 are usually lethargic. The market does not have the same memory as humans. Everyone believes that Bitcoin will go back up as fast as it did before. The markets don't usually work that way. You see, our memory is of the most recent price action (PA), thus everyone feels like they MUST buy into Bitcoin at these levels, because it will soon take off again to $100 or beyond... Slow down! Firstly, it needs to prove that it will survive.
Here is the daily chart of the Nasdaq (US 100 tech market), spanning back several years. Then i have included a like for like chart of Bitcoin. That is not to say, it will follow an identical path, however, it does show that wave 1 takes a while to gain any momentum and wave 2 is usually deep, taking you almost back to where it started from again. That is when to buy. Later this year according to the scales...

I've been watching Cable lately, including a couple of small trades. It just goes to prove that this system does work on any chart at any given time. Simply that sometimes the trend is not favourable to the method, but when it is, they all look the same!

I think Fleurdelys mentioned trying the GU with CFD's as opposed to the NQ Futures.

Firstly a reminder;



Couple of days ago (on Cable);







and i've included this one showing a couple of pullbacks. Results will obviously vary depending on whether you simply targeted a fresh low or how tight you were with your stoploss chase etc If you got a fill on the last one it still reacted enough for a BE trade...

Good morning

it's great to read you! We learn a lot!

I understand that the future NQ is better than NQ cdf for method 123 and 2b?
is it possible to trade the future NQ in demo? At which broker?
I'm trying to search, but I only find CFD demos

Also the 123s pattern is the same 123 pattern?

thank you very much

https://www.sierrachart.com/index.ph...pdetails59.php

Sierra charts are probably the best charting package available (well imo anyway!), there are a couple on here that use Ninja, but first you are probably best to trial with Sierra. You can then pick a broker, (AMP, Infinity etc).

I think i'm right in saying it is generally only a 15 day demo account -

If anyone else knows differently, i'm sure they will say so, but i think that is the case. If you have a funded account, the demo account is free but you need to pay $5/6 a month for data feed.

If you have a good charting package elsewhere with your CFD provider, then the 123's and 2B's are the same no matter where you view them. They are fractal (happen on all time scales).

I use City Index and IG Index for Spreadbetting/CFD platforms. IG's charting package is also very good.

watch out for the big candle pullbacks may take the bottom or top as in support and resistance market still in wild mode

Looks up to YPOC . . . Lets see where we go.

Here we go... and I am in "experimental" sim mode today

... 23 mins later experiment returned to drawing board after "crashing on take-off" (code for SimNQ needed to be reset to destroy the evidence...). Lordy...

.. BUT my Sim101 account seems to have taken a short that is now up over 100 ticks... WTF is going on... (file under "Diary of a Madman"):



My apologies for thread pollution : I am trying to add an extra step of automation to my entries, ie. beyond preset stop, target and trail (trade above closed at +119, but it's without any worthwhile substance, unfortunately).

Actual trading chart for this experiment (Dynamic SR Zones keep changing, so you can't see were they were for earlier trades, but useful for in trade targets, as well as filtering to not enter directly into,as opposed to from, SR). Open trade was filled from order placed about 2 minutes prior to fill.

I know what you're thinking H, "Why change anything ?"

Thank you! I am open in IG. Nice! it's possible charts 400 ticks now^^

I tried to short the pullback. I think valid figure?
But I close much too soon BE ...
the trade is going well now ...



I do not know if it's a beginner's luck .... but your method is really amazing!

another collossal day

Excellent work!

IG's tick rate is different to Sierra. To get similar looking charts i find that a lower tick rate on IG is needed. IG offer their pro charting package. It is free if you make 4 trades a month. You will then be able to 'deal through charts'... that means dragging and dropping an order on the chart.

Something to practice with and certainly a handy option.

The problem with CFD/SB companies is that they will cheat you out of your money any way they can. Slippage normally, although IG is actually very good. The market has to be moving very fast for them to slip your stoploss, whereas City Index do it as standard practice and it adds up too.

City Index do allow you to move your stoploss to equal distance away as your spread, which is nice, but even with 'one touch dealing' selected, you need to confirm each movement. When trading the NQ that is not fast enough and it cost's me regularly. They also do not have 'Point and click' entries via charts.

With IG, they do have drag and drop on the charts which is great, but they also have minimum SL limits (5 points for the Dax eg), so sometimes when you want to get your stop really tight, you can't and that also costs money. They are all crooks.

With 'Futures', you pay a commission instead. They do not need these tricks. They make money everytime you deal and with Sierra, it has the best of all combinations. 'Point & Click' entries plus 'drag and drop' your orders (stop & limit) without confirmation. It might sound like small details, but it definitely makes a difference to your account.

For now though, it is all about gaining experience!)

GL

Did you try Sierra with FXCM or LMAX?

Harold batting it out of the park again!) Nice one!

I had a storming trade, making 29 points. Doesn't sound like much if you put it that way, but that was 120 ticks (1 extra point in spread).

I would love it, if she kept moving like she does now and this was the norm, cos while i get used to trading in points, when i am ready to transfer over, i would keep things as close to the same as i can manage! I'm aiming for 10 points a day, thus 40 ticks or thereabouts.

Reminder of the GU trade posted earlier;





and a moment ago on the NQ,



basically the same story. I had exactly 6590 in my mind for the reverse (looked right in the centre of the Supply zone and round number). No other trades. I might come back later...

Once again H great trading. It did not happen for me today. 1 winner 1 loser for a flat day.

Hi Angus, yeh, i saw your previous post and looked it up on the Sierra site, but i simply do not understand the what's, how's and why's etc...

All i can see is the possibility of opening a CFD/SB account. I guess i should give them a call. I used to have an FXCM account, i have no idea what happened to it in all fairness!

with market acting this way stop has to be at least 20 for some that's a lot $100 since I was using 10 tick stop with 3 contracts$150 dropping down to 1 contract $100 is even cheaper for me this by no means is easy but a setup is a setup

It's actually quite simple and quick:

Open a Standard Account at FXCM. (Mini accounts don't work, but you can fund a standard account with only $50.00 even though they say you can't.)
Fill in this Letter Of Direction available from Sierra and they will link your account to your platform.
See this:
https://www.sierrachart.com/index.ph...ding.php#Setup

Takes about three days in total.

Or use Lmax, they have a much better reputation.

All the way past yesterday low . . .