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Plan the Trade

  • #4,461
  • Feb 5, 2018 10:19am Feb 5, 2018 10:19am
Quoting Olarion1975
{quote} Good job in rough market...I made 81 ticks with 2 contracts = 162 ticks. What I need to improve is to make less trades because I don't wanna pay so much commissions ($4.10 RT).
Bravo

Please post a chart - it's really helpful to see others' trades.

I know what you mean about commissions, especially as it's almost a full tick (I have traded FDAX a lot, where the commission adds up to only about 30% of the tick value; trouble is FDAX is a beast in other ways...).
  • #4,462
  • Feb 5, 2018 11:15am Feb 5, 2018 11:15am
Not much to share with you. I started late.

Just as well post my missed trade. It's a replica of Fridays winner for me, but i was too slow.

Such narrow margins between success and failure, especially when volumes are as they are now.

I guess the trade i'm discussing should be classed as a Hook. For me, it is simply a gut reaction. A trade that i believe is worth taking considering the evidence that has literally just unfolded before my eyes. Unfortunately, i hit 'buy limit' instead of just simply 'buy market' and the trade left almost immediately without me;

Firstly, what did i post this morning again;

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so this is what i saw a moment ago;

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But i let a bundle slip as i was thinking about a fresh low and seeing $ signs, so i did not follow down my stoploss.

After stop out and another retest of that level, the reaction was weaker to the short side. There lies the clue. Suddenly i'm realising that i was the wrong side of the trade, but like i say, too slow;

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  • #4,463
  • Feb 5, 2018 11:19am Feb 5, 2018 11:19am
Quoting jtrade
No trades from me, having set up my single contract 20 tick range chart; may just observe all week, as it has a very different feel. One nice entry (so easy after the fact ) : {image}
Hi JT - Have a look at Rockypoint's thread. He trades Range bars on a tick chart and might be useful info. for you ?

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10743641
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,464
  • Feb 5, 2018 1:26pm Feb 5, 2018 1:26pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Hi JT - Have a look at Rockypoint's thread. He trades Range bars on a tick chart and might be useful info. for you ? https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post10743641
Thanks, turnip - I've traded "normal" length range bars off & on for many years - say 5 ticks or so, which I think is what rockyp mostly does - but this is the first time I've traded such large ones... with specific intent !
  • #4,465
  • Feb 5, 2018 1:58pm Feb 5, 2018 1:58pm
Came back to the table, hoping to see things a little quieter, only to find that it really isn't!

This is heart attack inducing territory. I don't know about vaping, i need tranquilisers!)

I'm even more nervous than usual. With that said, however, follow the rules and it works, 123, trigger back into trend off of likely retracement level.

Someone more confident might have shorted there and then (top red line), but we got the trigger and retrace required. I have to say, i had zero confidence in the trade as soon as it was filled. Why is that?! Anyway, this one makes it a good day;

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  • #4,466
  • Feb 5, 2018 2:08pm Feb 5, 2018 2:08pm
This really is phenomenal! Just a few minutes later and it's dropped 320 ticks from my entry.... WOW!!!

I actually made a 4hr chart earlier and despite it being pointless because you can not trade such large moves, it's now looking quite a possibility. Why didn't i hold that last position?!

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  • #4,467
  • Feb 5, 2018 2:17pm Feb 5, 2018 2:17pm
The Insties must be dumping stock like there is no tomorrow, the problem is, even technical bounces from here can be hundreds of ticks in a flash... there is a risk of a huge whiplash from here;

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and further to above post, just a few more minutes and it dropped a further 400 ticks... 720 ticks in 25 minutes!)
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  • #4,468
  • Feb 5, 2018 2:22pm Feb 5, 2018 2:22pm
We've covered 1,200 ticks plus today. This isn't too far dissimilar to a flash crash that wiped out one of my accounts about 8 or 9 years ago. I remember vividly all the lines on my screen suddenly scrunched up to fit in all the price data!

I thought it would calm down late on... if anything it's become even wilder!
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  • #4,469
  • Feb 5, 2018 2:49pm Feb 5, 2018 2:49pm
AMP just sent an email with a price limit guide regarding 'Trading Halted Levels'!)
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  • #4,470
  • Feb 5, 2018 3:17pm Feb 5, 2018 3:17pm
Nq down 1400 ticks wowwwwww
  • #4,471
  • Feb 5, 2018 3:21pm Feb 5, 2018 3:21pm
You don't get to witness many of these days in your trading career!

The Dow has wiped off 3,000 points in the short time since this correction started. I'm not sure which Index has fared worse so far;

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  • #4,472
  • Feb 5, 2018 3:31pm Feb 5, 2018 3:31pm
I am kinda afraid to trade tomorrow
  • #4,473
  • Feb 5, 2018 3:59pm Feb 5, 2018 3:59pm
Quoting The Cableguy
Not sure if all markets will perform the same, but my overall view for the Dax, in particular, is the opposite of the good ole 'Christmas rally'. I think it will sell off into the early part of the New Year, potentially back to 12K... {image} The great thing about shorting such moves, is the old 'up the stairs and down in the elevator' adage. You don't generally have to wait long for your money!)
Here was the chart of 19-12-17;

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Now, here is the problem with EW. It has many options available to it. What we have printed, i am fairly certain is an 'Irregular B wave'

Ok, i will try to explain simply. An 'irregular B wave' will make a further peak (long) above the start of the correction. They are always extremely confusing because it appears to be another Impulse wave under way.

Using Fib's is the only way to confirm the count. I am pretty confident of this and it will mean that the vicious sell off of the last few days, was merely corrective and we will go on to fresh highs later this year. I doubt that the NQ and YM will be any different;

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Everything fits, (almost a little too well!)...

Within wave 3, subwave (v) was 100% of subwave (i). This is what makes me think the fresh high was a 'B' wave, followed by this vicious 'C' wave (of the 4th wave).

A reaction off of a double bottom with prior subwave (iv) end would also be the 38.2% retracement fib of the entire 3rd wave (standard procedure).

The sell off on the NQ looks horrific, but in actual fact we are exactly where we ended last year at present.

Ok, just posting for a bit of fun, but i will be watching to see if it follows the plan.
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  • #4,474
  • Feb 5, 2018 6:17pm Feb 5, 2018 6:17pm
After seeing where the markets closed today, I was wondering if anyone traded this afternoon. Great trade CG. And thanks for the great charts and explanation.
  • #4,475
  • Feb 5, 2018 8:39pm Feb 5, 2018 8:39pm
Up to 12 tick spread, and it looks like nothing
  • #4,476
  • Feb 5, 2018 10:34pm Feb 5, 2018 10:34pm
for this time of night she is moving. After looking at CG's 4 hour, I looked up the daily.
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  • #4,477
  • Feb 6, 2018 2:38am Feb 6, 2018 2:38am
Quoting jtrade
{quote} As you can see, we're trading the NQ futures contract here, which you cannot trade with a forex broker, so you need a futures account and platform... and also a larger account, as the NQ tick size (a tick is the futures term for pip, ie. the minimum move; it's 0.25 of a point in the NQ) is $5. ie. the equivalent of trading 5 minilots ($50,000 posiiton size) of a USD forex pair. One NQ contract requires $500 margin for day trading. Personally, I wouldn't recommend attempting to trade the NQ with less than a $5k account for a beginner ($2k...
thank you very much. It helps me!
I did not know futures markets .I understand better now why I did not have the same prices! (Lmax = cfd NQ)

I will start with EU and GU
Then at which broker should you go to have this market?
But to begin I will train on the forex.

You're right, It's a marathon, not a sprint ...
Especially since the theory of this pattern seems 'simple', but very complex in practice (at least when you start like me)
thank you
  • #4,478
  • Feb 6, 2018 2:52am Feb 6, 2018 2:52am
Hello
Is this a correct pattern?
But not pullback on point 3 for open position with few risk?
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  • #4,479
  • Feb 6, 2018 3:06am Feb 6, 2018 3:06am
Quoting fleurdelys
Hello Is this a correct pattern? But not pullback on point 3 for open position with few risk? {image}

Don't forget it shouldn't pullback to exactly point 3. Your limit order should be at the top of the pinbar at the start of the move away from point 3, thus in your chart, it does indeed pullback;

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Your point 2 also makes a HH for potential trend change.

I don't think it's a trade that i would have taken in real time though, if i am honest with myself. I want a 123 to have a break of trend within itself, before it triggers, (as per example i have drawn to the left of your chart). Not everyone will agree with me on that one though, but i would have been too afraid that a bigger pullback was about to happen...

Again, only to repeat what JT said. 'Rome wasn't built in a day'... Just the same as with every method, it takes a long time. There is so much to learn. Experience is everything, but... at least with this approach, you are going down the right road. Using an indicator based crossover, will have you going around and around in circles for year after year.

GL
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  • #4,480
  • Feb 6, 2018 3:40am Feb 6, 2018 3:40am
Quoting The Cableguy
Ok own up... who shot the Dow and the Nas?) That's some sell off today on both index's and although i think we are due a technical bounce early next week, i reckon this might be overall a larger correction; {image} Got a bit ahead of the curve... well, straight line, but you know what i mean!); {image}
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and current;

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The reaction off of the top line was so fast it isn't even recognisable at this scale;

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That's the first part completed. So what next?!)

All bets are off right now, as 'Bump 'n' Runs can often mean, not merely back to the prior trend channel... they often overshoot wildly further...
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