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Copy the trading of Forex Factory members 26 replies

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Shorting Forex Factory members

  • #21
  • Feb 1, 2018 6:25pm Feb 1, 2018 6:25pm
Hi, Trend is your friend???
Which one? daily we are Long . weekly short. which do we trade..
Just saying.....
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #22
  • Feb 1, 2018 8:41pm Feb 1, 2018 8:41pm
Quoting taksistalo
Find this very funny (nothing personal, hope all works out for you in the best way) =) you think FF members creating market moves? Or market makers care about FF members decisions ? However might be you think most FF members don't know how to trade and take the wrong side most of the time =)

Of course FF members don’t have all together enough money to move the market.

But most of FF members are amateur that try to pick top or bottom, so it’s no surprise that since the euro is trending up, most of traders in FF are shorting, and more the euro is bullish the more they will add to their position for a better “top” to cover their loss.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #23
  • Edited 9:06pm Feb 1, 2018 8:43pm | Edited 9:06pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} Yes, it's that one. However it's not restricted to just FF and I'm just as guilty of being clueless as anyone. I think it's either that most traders don't know how to do it properly or that most big (smart) money positions itself in opposition to the smaller players so that they can carry out their business at the best price. They use the prevailing price notions to their advantage. I do wonder why so many traders trade against the trend though, that just seems...odd.


Of course FF members don’t have all together enough money to move the market.

But most of FF members are amateur that trying to pick top or bottom, so it’s no surprise that since the euro is trending up, most of traders in FF are shorting, and more the euro is bullish the more they will add to their position for a better “top” to cover their loss
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #24
  • Feb 1, 2018 8:48pm Feb 1, 2018 8:48pm
Quoting synicz
Then again be warned that there are other reasons why retail traders lose. It may be due to overleveraging, taking profits early/holding losers for too long etc...

Exactly, they tend to do that in the wrong side by trying to pickup better price at bottom or top thinking it will go back at the previous price by, their leverage and martingale just make it worse and is fuel for the trend follower / stop hunter.

The truth is that most of retail traders are amateurs and go against the flow.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #25
  • Feb 1, 2018 8:49pm Feb 1, 2018 8:49pm
Quoting BataviaTrade
when all FF members will be trading your system, it balances itself out and will collapse. But I wish you luck.

Wrong !

All FF members are NOT enough to balance it out.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #26
  • Feb 1, 2018 8:51pm Feb 1, 2018 8:51pm
Quoting m3rlin
{quote} because they want to be smarter than the markets and they really belive that thei are smarter )

Exactly.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #27
  • Edited 9:09pm Feb 1, 2018 8:56pm | Edited 9:09pm
Quoting FXDetermined
{quote} Nice idea . But I'm to 98 percent sure that this will not work out mate. It is not that 90 % of the traders lose because they have bad positions or because they don't know in which directing the trend is. Instead the most know oi very well, but they are only not able to trade wisely. They don't use the right money management and their fear, greed and inexperience leads to fails. How often for example your stop loss was hit, or you close your trade and right after that the market turns and goes in the direction you thought? Make a test...

He is taking a good trend following strategy by going against the FF sentiment and probably other like Oanda, etc...

I do agree with you on that it wil be difficult even with proper entry and money management, it will still be trading and it’s hard.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #28
  • Feb 1, 2018 8:59pm Feb 1, 2018 8:59pm
Quoting billytt
Hi, Trend is your friend??? Which one? daily we are Long . weekly short. which do we trade.. Just saying.....
Any trend on the time frame you stick with, if you dig in all time frames then you will be lost.

Market Are fractals (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal) , the more you zoom in the more you will see trends, choose your friend “aka time frame” and be loyal to him, then you will know what means “the trend is your friend”.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #29
  • Feb 1, 2018 9:18pm Feb 1, 2018 9:18pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} If I can be guilty of helping FF members then it will be worth losing one trading strategy. I don't think there's any danger of that, sadly.

Even if all FF members follows your strategy, which would be very unlikely anyway, it won’t be enough to move a market of 5 trillion a day, people that haven’t understood that are very naive, please don’t listen to them.

You are at least on the right track but without proper entry and proper money management it’s gonna be worthless.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #30
  • Feb 1, 2018 9:26pm Feb 1, 2018 9:26pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Any trend on the time frame you stick with, if you dig in all time frames then you will be lost. Market Are fractals (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal) , the more you zoom in the more you will see trends, choose your friend “aka time frame” and be loyal to him, then you will know what means “the trend is your friend”.

precisely, i agree with you... But Trend is only your friend when you are trading along side it going the same direction.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #31
  • Feb 1, 2018 9:28pm Feb 1, 2018 9:28pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} precisely, i agree with you... But Trend is only your friend when you are trading along side it going the same direction.

This is exactly the point yes, you don’t want to turn your back on your friend.

If you start to look at other time frames then you will betray your friend, you just have to be sure with which team you are with, daily, h4, m15, etc...

Then as all friendships you will have to be loyal.

yo can not fight on all battlefields and being “loyal”to one, trading is all about consistently repeating the same pattern, it’s all about consistency.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #32
  • Feb 1, 2018 9:41pm Feb 1, 2018 9:41pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} This is exactly the point yes, you don’t want to turn your back on your friend. If you start to look at other time frames then you will betray your friend, you just have to be sure with which team you are with, daily, h4, m15, etc... Then as all friendships you will have to be loyal. yo can not fight on all battlefields and being “loyal”to one, trading is all about consistently repeating the same pattern, it’s all about consistency.

yes , stick to the method 100%, do not think just trade the triggers
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #33
  • Feb 2, 2018 6:37am Feb 2, 2018 6:37am
A real test to this type of strategy are days like today (NFP, CB meetings etc.) You can be right (meaning most of the retail traders are wrong) but you are just hit by extreme moves after the event and stopped out. I follow retail traders positions daily and take them to into consideration when trading but like today, I just don't care. After the NFP numbers I slowly start again to develop my view and at Monday will again consider retail traders views also.
  • #34
  • Feb 2, 2018 2:08pm Feb 2, 2018 2:08pm
[quote=kauppias;10734982]A real test to this type of strategy are days like today (NFP, CB meetings etc.) You can be right (meaning most of the retail traders are wrong) but you are just hit by extreme moves after the event and stopped out.

NFP can be traded profitably most times, as long as they don't do a counter spike and massive spread as this kills.
Today for instance just a beautiful drop down with easy pickings...
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #35
  • Feb 2, 2018 3:56pm Feb 2, 2018 3:56pm
Some positioning changed this week but I'm not sure how to handle situations where trader numbers and lots in play are on opposite sides of the trade. For example, with USDCAD the majority of traders are now long, but the number of lots being traded remains net short. Should I close this trade and open up a long position on Monday? Same situation with NZDUSD, AUDUSD and GBPUSD. Since these trades are now losing it would follow the 'cut your losers' short mantra to do so, but I fear changing sides too quickly will defeat the long term purposes of this strategy.

Do NFP days often cause this kind of re-shuffle?

EURUSD remains unchanged, and GBJPY, although it flip-flopped remains as I began. Interestingly, although on Thursday only AUDUSD and USDJPY were losing, now only EU and GJ are in profit. USDCHF biases also remain unchanged but it lost all of its profits.

I've decided not to use other contrarian indicators for this system, Just the FF TEs but I might try another one that makes more selective use of the averages from other sources.
  • #36
  • Feb 2, 2018 4:08pm Feb 2, 2018 4:08pm
As it has been pointed out to me this strategy may fail if I don't establish an exit criteria. At one point it was up more than 300 pips, now it is down 300+. Then again, if the market really isn't mean-reverting, as PipMeUp says, then keeping winning trades open should boost equity over the long term. Unless someone has a better idea I guess I will just close trades when the net positioning (traders OR money) changes if the trade is losing or net positioning (traders AND money) if it is winning.
  • #37
  • Feb 2, 2018 4:20pm Feb 2, 2018 4:20pm
Quoting clemmo17
Some positioning changed this week but I'm not sure how to handle situations where trader numbers and lots in play are on opposite sides of the trade. For example, with USDCAD the majority of traders are now long, but the number of lots b

. I've decided not to use other contrarian indicators for this system, Just the FF TEs but I might try another one that makes more selective use of the averages from other sources.
if you posted TREND IS YOUR FRIEND,
The Contrarian approach would be to trade against it?? because most of the retail Traders would be trading with it.
It seems odd.
i think these lists of league traders is misleading, you will always have a top 20 but how often do the names change..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38
  • Feb 3, 2018 5:32am Feb 3, 2018 5:32am
The sentiment might be right by going against the FF crowd, but the most difficult part remain, where to enter / where to exit.

Welcome to trading dude.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #39
  • Feb 3, 2018 6:47am Feb 3, 2018 6:47am
An indicator in itself won't make someone a good trader. An indicator just summarises data so you don't have to manually do it in your brain. It's just there to help you make a decision on HOW to trade.

I collect consumer sentiment data every hour and store it in CSV files on my server.

Attached is a batch file to download that data, and an MQL file to display it as an indicator. Why show sentiment over time instead of just what it is now? Because (in my opinion), information about how and when there are shifts in positions amongst retail traders is important information (an important "indicator") to be used in conjunction with whatever other decisions you make before opening a trade.

green = traders long
red = traders short
orange = lots long
white = lots short
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Plot Consumer Sentiment.mq4   4 KB | 345 downloads
File Type: zip mt4csv.bat 2.zip   < 1 KB | 311 downloads
  • #40
  • Feb 3, 2018 7:06am Feb 3, 2018 7:06am
Quoting LDFX
The sentiment might be right by going against the FF crowd, but the most difficult part remain, where to enter / where to exit. Welcome to trading dude.
agreed, i honestly think it is hit and miss trading .
Do the Contrarian Traders have a better win rate than the herd traders????

Maybe the 5% who win actually stick religiously to a method.

My trade method is based on Frequency Distribution and you cannot argue with maths/numbers, and is very successful as long as you stick to method.
That is the last time i speak of myself.
Have a good weekend all..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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