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Plan the Trade

  • #4,401
  • Feb 1, 2018 1:05pm Feb 1, 2018 1:05pm
Tough trading on 2000 tick chart unless you want HUGE stops. But the theory is the same the plan would be different
  • #4,402
  • Feb 1, 2018 2:37pm Feb 1, 2018 2:37pm
Quoting Divergence
Tough trading on 2000 tick chart unless you want HUGE stops. But the theory is the same the plan would be different
Not exactly what i was thinking of H. You take the trade as per normal using 512 (or your 400 tick), but only if there is a normal set-up, at the retest point of the larger set-up entry, so your stoploss would be the same as usual, however, by observing the bigger picture, it will give likely direction for a bigger move, thus look to keep taking pullbacks until the fresh lows (trend continuance).

How it looks on 512;

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  • #4,403
  • Feb 1, 2018 2:49pm Feb 1, 2018 2:49pm
I'm not suggesting that you would be able to hold through the pullbacks, but it does mean to keep looking for set-ups until trend continuance is confirmed. It's not like it is a one off. Above was yesterday, today PA has done a basic replica;

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,404
  • Feb 1, 2018 4:44pm Feb 1, 2018 4:44pm
Meditation has been the biggest help for the emotional side. That and Irish coffees

I’ve been using a flexible profile which also works great. Typically cover a few days back.
  • #4,405
  • Feb 1, 2018 4:48pm Feb 1, 2018 4:48pm
What's a flexible profile
  • #4,406
  • Feb 1, 2018 5:04pm Feb 1, 2018 5:04pm
I have vertical lines on my chart that I drag to set the start and end point for the profile calculation
  • #4,407
  • Feb 2, 2018 12:19am Feb 2, 2018 12:19am
Quoting rudy5
Meditation has been the biggest help for the emotional side. That and Irish coffees
I enjoy both
  • #4,408
  • Feb 2, 2018 2:08am Feb 2, 2018 2:08am
This last conversation gets me thinking: Has anyone back tested the questions we all keep on having i.e. 10 tick or 15 tick stop is better or +1 after +6 or top of last candle after +6 etc.?
  • #4,409
  • Feb 2, 2018 2:31am Feb 2, 2018 2:31am
Quoting Ygr
This last conversation gets me thinking: Has anyone back tested the questions we all keep on having i.e. 10 tick or 15 tick stop is better or +1 after +6 or top of last candle after +6 etc.?
I think H has obviously got the most extensive experience of all of us on that one.

I used the 15 stop last early year and it was a little uncomfortable, holding the position when clearly it wasn't reacting where you expected it too. Your still in the trade when confidence in it has gone, so now relying on it being a 2B to get out for BE etc...

Similarly, the stop to +1 after +6 sees endless stop outs with your stoploss being at the pullback level, only to see what would have been a winner - but then, it does that at +8 and +10 depending on the volatility or volume printing at the time. I don't think there is an answer to your question as it will always vary.

The argument is that on one hand it will save you from more lost trades.

I'm toying with the idea of setting stoploss above/below last peak/trough and then placing limit above below the last trough/peak for trend continuance. Stoploss to +1 manually after a retest.
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  • #4,410
  • Feb 2, 2018 4:34am Feb 2, 2018 4:34am
I often note that a 20 tick or larger stop, then hold trade to target with no stop to b/e would have given by far the best session result... but also by far the hardest psychologically, as sometimes you’ll have a really bad day.

Optimal trade management has to take into account trader psychology.
  • #4,411
  • Feb 2, 2018 4:58am Feb 2, 2018 4:58am
Mornin’, CG, I’m sitting in an Amsterdam cafe enjoying a salmon bagel & cappuccino, studying your interesting charts (I may sometimes mock them, but I ALWAYS study them ).

... following up on the psychology theme, I’m going to start recording my feelings around every trade I take ... not saying I am going to actually post them - far too touchy feely: you guys want charts, the manlier the better
but I do feel that fear of losing cuts much deeper than most of us care to admit.
  • #4,412
  • Feb 2, 2018 5:15am Feb 2, 2018 5:15am
Quoting jtrade
Mornin’, CG, I’m sitting in an Amsterdam cafe enjoying a salmon bagel & cappuccino, studying your interesting charts (I may sometimes mock them, but I ALWAYS study them ). ... following up on the psychology theme, I’m going to start recording my feelings around every trade I take ... not saying I am going to actually post them - far too touchy feely: you guys want charts, the manlier the better but I do feel that fear of losing cuts much deeper than most of us care to admit.
I wholeheartedly agree with you JT and that is why i wrote above about the same observation.

I've often thought, if only i could place stoploss below last trough (if long) on a deep retrace and target trend continuance (fresh highs) and just leave it... it either wins or loses (risk typically 10 ticks and gain cos deep retrace of 50/60). The impetus is often with PA at the fresh high and thus once broken, it sometimes runs a fair bit beyond too, for purposes of stop chase below each completed candle...

Alas, as you rightly say, i for one, can not stand seeing +25/+30 etc retrace to +15/+10 and even worse if it does it twice. I would become a nervous wreck - (well, even more than i am already!))

The view that you have outside of a trade is very different once you find yourself in the trade. In a calm state you might be sure of direction, but if you sit and watch the gyrations of the market, it is akin to torture!

I'm currently trading live positions on SB's, (but using the Sierra charts for analysis along with profiles), with smaller positions, just to try to conquer this fear factor.
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  • #4,413
  • Edited 5:53am Feb 2, 2018 5:21am | Edited 5:53am
I will place this following chart in the 'just for a bit of fun' folder, because it is on a scale that is too large to trade as such, however, it is what i have been highlighting as much as possible lately - that is, if you can identify a cycle or phase and the retrace becomes deep, look for the top of the starting subwave (will look like a pinbar on a much bigger scale), to be retested;

Just the same as in my last two charts of last night and various ones elsewhere. It will look like this;

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It would see Y = 138.2% of W. The 100% level also lines up with possibility to the left, so it would be a question of looking for 123 off of either.

(Not necessarily to timescale! We could pullback all day today) etc

I view it as two cycles short connected by an X wave... but this is fractal in any case. So i like to start with a large view, then try to find smaller pullbacks with the overall target in mind.
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  • #4,414
  • Feb 2, 2018 5:49am Feb 2, 2018 5:49am
Trade management needs to come down to statistics. If you have a couple hundred trades to review see what works best. But what’s even more important is being able to execute, so at the end of the day it’s not what’s statistically best it’s whatever supports you the most mentally.
  • #4,415
  • Edited 8:27am Feb 2, 2018 7:49am | Edited 8:27am
Quoting jtrade
I often note that a 20 tick or larger stop, then hold trade to target with no stop to b/e would have given by far the best session result... but also by far the hardest psychologically, as sometimes you’ll have a really bad day. Optimal trade management has to take into account trader psychology.
trading isn't just put orders on that anyone can do its trade and money management that are the key. yes do some of those get up 6 move stop to +1 take you out and then go up yes do some of those +1 and would have taken you out yes. there needs to be a plan in place, Since I and everyone else don't want a losing trade my NUMBER RULE IS remove risk asap in essence we are technically scalpers we don't hold trades at least for me its all about accumulation in my 1 hr of trading do the math if you make 20 ticks per day 4 days a week monthly you make 320 ticks all that would need to be done to earn more is just add 1 contract this is just an example of my thinking
  • #4,416
  • Feb 2, 2018 8:23am Feb 2, 2018 8:23am
Quoting Divergence
{quote} . . . all about accumulation in my 1 hr of trading do the math if you make 20 ticks per day 4 days a week monthly you make 320 ticks all that would need to be done to earn more is just add 1 contract this is just an example of my thinking
20 ticks is a manageable target. Sounds reasonable
  • #4,417
  • Feb 2, 2018 8:37am Feb 2, 2018 8:37am
I've always said, everyone must find what works for them, cos no two traders are the same.

I've probably been talking personally about bigger targets recently, because i am trading SB's which have a 1 point spread during normal hours, so again, there is adjustments to be made, but here's the thing...

Unfortunately there is a 3 point spread outside hours, so trading at this time is basically out of the question, but i've just witnessed a trade set-up where mentally i shorted at 6878, stop would be 4 points (16 ticks). It soon, thereafter, dropped to the next likely reaction level in the opposite direction at 6865... that would have seen 13 points gained - a worthwhile trade in itself.

Now convert that to ticks!

I'm not serious about trading with Spreadbets, it's purely to be able to use stepping stones regarding trade sizes, but if i can make profits on a 1 point spread, then i very much look forward to what i will achieve next time going live again with contracts.

The added bonus will be if i can trade these larger moves, then those 13 point gains become 52 tick ones. Can it be done? well, the next few months will find out i guess!
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  • #4,418
  • Feb 2, 2018 8:55am Feb 2, 2018 8:55am
I'd like to say that I am SO in touch with my feelings today that I have not made a single losing trade <arms folded> !

(minor issue is that I have not actually made any trades, as my hands seem to be superglued to my chair.... )

Update : made a trade & it's an example of the rectangular SR lines I draw that I mentioned the other day (even though I should have reversed short into the 2B that it made, but in general I have a rule NOT to SAR) :

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The pressure is clearly down, so I am going to wait a few minutes to see what happens with this downward push.... just re-applying the superglue now...
  • #4,419
  • Feb 2, 2018 9:44am Feb 2, 2018 9:44am
So I think 50 was the key H1 level, waiting for a pullback as shown... will only give it one point (but if it would then bounce right on the 50 would re-enter)... but the train looks like it has left without me. Might trade the Close again... otherwise good weekends to you all.
Attached Image
  • #4,420
  • Feb 2, 2018 9:45am Feb 2, 2018 9:45am
traded 15 minutes today and stopped had to go to the store anyway
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