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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,861
  • Jan 19, 2018 2:08am Jan 19, 2018 2:08am
Quoting DutchAngel
So happy to see TAF still going strong. Merry Christmas and best wishes for 2018 to all. {image}
Fantastic to see your post - I hope you had a wonderful Christmas. I remember checking in a while back and I noticed you hadn't logged in for several years and I remembered you were quite ill at one point so I was worried about you.
  • #57,862
  • Jan 24, 2018 12:46am Jan 24, 2018 12:46am
Come on, fti... where are you?
I never knew it was possible to miss a friend so terribly.
I need you.
I want you back!

Inserted Video
  • #57,863
  • Edited 9:07am Jan 24, 2018 3:57am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting Jupiter
Come on, fti... where are you?

maybe he needs rest and peace now my friend......but I miss him too

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,864
  • Jan 29, 2018 5:20am Jan 29, 2018 5:20am
Not much happening on thread.

I would like to ask question if anyone is out there.

Is there a way to determine a duck hunt from a trend breakout eg HH - or is the only way determined by what happens next??

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,865
  • Edited 7:13am Jan 29, 2018 6:55am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting alexandria
Not much happening on thread. I would like to ask question if anyone is out there. Is there a way to determine a duck hunt from a trend breakout eg HH - or is the only way determined by what happens next?? Alex
Ro3k, or cross pushing relation, basically terrain. What I noticed is, in true breakouts, 3kings on USD side is in attack mode, or say EUR is trending, you will see eurusd and eurgbp trending.

Your question is as good as asking, when can rescue when can attack, answer is, when it is happening, we may not know till after it is over, but there are clues given in ro3k and terrain and cross relation tearing.

Fti once mentioned, when 3k lines up, it usually means strong push, just that we may not know how strong, and usually we know only after market shows sign of stop hunting.

But if you look at Phil's looking at currency indices, it helps to spot the tearing, so Phil's method itself is more efficient

Also speed and volatility if volatility and speed is slow helps to tell us if it is stophunts or not, e.g, market trade above 5min high, trade back into range, but did so many times, tells us perhaps real move is downwards.


Derivative of that, dealers leg into cross in 3legged animal to mitigate such scenarios, because no crystal ball, but they instead have staying power, book's floating net loss is capped low, so it is effectively not that difficult to manage such position. This was gleamed from why crosses move the way they do. Dealers are in the middle of the crosses, and hence the tearing.
  • #57,866
  • Jan 29, 2018 7:59am Jan 29, 2018 7:59am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} .......in true breakouts, 3kings on USD side is in attack mode, or say EUR is trending, you will see eurusd and eurgbp trending. ......clues given in ro3k and terrain and cross relation tearing. ......Also speed and volatility if volatility and speed is slow helps to tell us if it is stophunts or not, e.g, market trade above 5min high, trade back into range, but did so many times, tells us perhaps real move is downwards. Derivative of that, dealers leg into cross in 3legged animal to mitigate such scenarios, because no crystal ball, but...
For sure if price keeps going back above to check for any demand and finds none then when demand is finally used up we would either see strong push up that has no follow through or really weak retest of highs and a lower high we should expect to see/feel very strong bear momentum and build/continue of down trend and this would be sign of stop sweeping at tops.

If we get a very sudden single spike up duck hunt against down trend then we should expect to see rubber band snap back to main trend if stop hunting at highs.

I guess a true breakout and a sweep have 2 different objectives for the big guys: the sweep at highs means I want to dump stock on to others at a nicer price for me and will keep testing the highs and dumping at or near there before I can see it really going down and a true breakout is where the big guys are probably taking profits from the run up and will reload in any pullback for another go at highs. So maybe the only way we know is from what happens next.

Will have to think about what you say re crosses as this is a really good reminder.

Thanks

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,867
  • Edited 8:31am Jan 29, 2018 8:04am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} For sure if price keeps going back above to check for any demand and finds none then when demand is finally used up we would either see strong push up that has no follow through or really weak retest of highs and a lower high we should expect to see/feel very strong bear momentum and build/continue of down trend and this would be sign of stop sweeping at tops. If we get a very sudden single spike up duck hunt against down trend then we should expect to see rubber band snap back to main trend if stop hunting at highs. I guess a true breakout...
yes, problem is, everything with a strong bar may look like a breakout till it fails, so, its really anyones guess unless you have spotted accumulation or distribution for quite sometime. or you have additional informations about what price is doing. you really only have clues telling you perhaps something might be the case, but always have plan b, c and d.

well sometimes you can caught in term trend changes, while expecting duck hunting, and that in itself can be nasty to handle, and you may not know it till price breaks that particular high or low and never looks back, by that time, exposure should be not as easy to manage, well thats why there is cut and flip i guess.

but with the way ro3k is "arranged", for a lack of a better word, it tells us terrain, so terrain should tell us probability of duck hunt or actual trend push. we are trading relative strength of each currency afterall. the key to understanding is inside the 3 legged animal. and the usage for counters is also in this understanding.

the usage of the 3legged animal was derived from understanding how brokers manage their position and how they manage their holdings to protect their actual books. you are effectively using their strategy against them.

let me give you an example, eurusd is strong up 50pips, gbpusd is strong up 50pips, how would eurgbp react? well, probably choppy right? because its USD leg which is moving and their relative value difference is 50pips each. but if instead eurusd is up 70pips and gbpusd is up 50pips, eurgbp is probably up say 20pips, because the relative value difference is 20pips, and the price action alone have many variations. in these 3 currencies, their relative movement to each other produces the pip movement on the majors and the majors then show on the cross. as cross are quoted from major prices
  • #57,868
  • Jan 30, 2018 10:50am Jan 30, 2018 10:50am
Quoting alexandria
Not much happening on thread. I would like to ask question if anyone is out there. Is there a way to determine a duck hunt from a trend breakout eg HH - or is the only way determined by what happens next?? Alex

Hi Alex

definitely worth watching the last video our friend CookieMonsta posted on his thread by Anton Kreil, bare in mind how they (the mainstream ) tell us retail's how we should trade and it may help you understand about the stop/order runs a bit more.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,869
  • Edited 2:53am Jan 31, 2018 2:42am | Edited 2:53am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi Alex definitely worth watching the last video our friend CookieMonsta posted on his thread by Anton Kreil, bare in mind how they (the mainstream ) tell us retail's how we should trade and it may help you understand about the stop/order runs a bit more. regards Phil.
will do thanks...... I am trying to fix in my mind how I should react and identify re-accumulation versus distribution etc ... and what the purpose of each activity is.......if I better understand it then I can react better I hope..........


Jupiter has been challenging me and helping me soooo much ...... it is a fascinating journey.. trend understanding is vital for book and understanding what is the purpose of each activity is helping me too.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,870
  • Edited 3:57am Jan 31, 2018 2:51am | Edited 3:57am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} ............................... but with the way ro3k is "arranged", for a lack of a better word, it tells us terrain, so terrain should tell us probability of duck hunt or actual trend push. we are trading relative strength of each currency afterall......

I have not been including RoK enough in my thoughts on re accumulation versus distribution ie continue versus reversal. Yesterday was good example USDCHF reacted to CHF news pushing dollar down and eurusd long, eurusd long aided by other news that arrived as expected. Then later eurusd danced around the usd news.....

Of course in uptrend watch the lows in downtrend the highs as always.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,871
  • Edited 9:51am Jan 31, 2018 8:01am | Edited 9:51am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I have not been including RoK enough in my thoughts on re accumulation versus distribution ie continue versus reversal. Yesterday was good example USDCHF reacted to CHF news pushing dollar down and eurusd long, eurusd long aided by other news that arrived as expected. Then later eurusd danced around the usd news..... Of course in uptrend watch the lows in downtrend the highs as always. Alex
Well, what you see is the mood for yesterday, temporary news of chf came in and caused flows to come in. Probably people still found eurusd position ok, so they willing to hold and let it dance around, or is they getting out for fomc.

The video I posted on Anton kreill, well, yesterday and today you should see some big boys hand at play, either hedging or scaling out some positions to square down for fomc. Sometimes before big events like these you see price chop heavily, may be due to big boys hedging, so dealers bump stops, or they liquidating their assets and dealers need move the inventory before fomc to square down.

Sometimes they jockeying for position, aka fti mentioned, elephants fighting. You never know for sure, hence always follow flows.

Part of the fundamental driver for the week may clue us to terrain and if price action is stophunts in nature too.

Think of possibilities how price may manifest, and look out for clues.

Well, that being said, always be ready to react to flow, your reaction, is where the edge lies.

regarding terrain, ro3k and timing.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...46#post1829546
  • #57,872
  • Jan 31, 2018 9:34pm Jan 31, 2018 9:34pm
In my summary, what fti said Is
Averaging martingale in one direction with main trend with maximum risk 10%.
  • #57,873
  • Feb 1, 2018 1:37am Feb 1, 2018 1:37am
Quoting indosupre
In my summary, what fti said Is Averaging martingale in one direction with main trend with maximum risk 10%.

Hi indosupre

Thanks for attempting to at least read some of the thread start before posting your question.

I think you need to take a bit more time in reading and digesting the first at least two hundred pages, what you have stated is not a summary of the thread, many people make this mistake, there is so much more here for the trader who genuinely wants to learn ‘how to trade’ and has the time and patients to go through what they find, questions here are no problem and there are people here who will attempt to answer and help with what they can.

Good luck with your journey.

Regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,874
  • Feb 1, 2018 6:21am Feb 1, 2018 6:21am
Quoting indosupre
In my summary, what fti said Is Averaging martingale in one direction with main trend with maximum risk 10%.
Hi you do this your account will definitely get burnt.
  • #57,875
  • Feb 1, 2018 6:23am Feb 1, 2018 6:23am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi you do this your account will definitely get burnt.
........should demo it... prove the stated theory.......

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,876
  • Feb 1, 2018 6:29am Feb 1, 2018 6:29am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} ........should demo it... prove the stated theory....... Alex
Martingale is the mo, but fti not teaching martingale stand alone, fti teaching discretion and how to dance with pa.

MM alone is not enough.

What I sensed in the post is a possible chance that it may be used for averaging against term trend.
  • #57,877
  • Feb 1, 2018 6:32am Feb 1, 2018 6:32am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Martingale is the mo, but fti not teaching martingale stand alone, fti teaching discretion and how to dance with pa. MM alone is not enough. What I sensed in the post is a possible chance that it may be used for averaging against term trend.

I know about mm... just to say if someone has a theory they should demo it.... demo NOT live... then learn from market...... then read more of the thread... just sayin


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,878
  • Feb 1, 2018 6:33am Feb 1, 2018 6:33am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} I know about mm... just to say if someone has a theory they should demo it.... demo NOT live... then learn from market...... then read more of the thread... just sayin Alex
I see, I misread your post, my apologies.
  • #57,879
  • Feb 1, 2018 6:38am Feb 1, 2018 6:38am
Quoting indosupre
In my summary, what fti said Is Averaging martingale in one direction with main trend with maximum risk 10%.

When you read the thread - note everything FTI says and really understand it - I did not do this enough and I did it a lot - study each sentence/reply/chart - I am finding (with some help from my friends here) all answers to my questions are answered here.... I am just not sure of question some times. FTI says it is simple... but it is not ...skills take much time to acquire. Also you need to find what works for you ie your own style - we can all learn to play guitar but we will play the same song quite differently.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,880
  • Feb 1, 2018 6:39am Feb 1, 2018 6:39am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} I see, I misread your post, my apologies.
oh no problem my friend.

Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
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