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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #3,161
  • Jan 26, 2018 1:35am Jan 26, 2018 1:35am
Quoting mihrutkanik
I'm not a fundamentalist but would not recommend short. We are witnesses of a global correction, despite the fact that oil still in the downtrend it can reach 75-80 in the next couple months. My plan is: local high in March or Aipril than correction till June and than again upward trend till the end of 2018.
But why woukd it go to 80$ what has changed that much, since it was at 35$ ?
  • #3,162
  • Jan 26, 2018 1:46am Jan 26, 2018 1:46am
Quoting atom3
What is the fundamental situation with Oil guys ? I am thinking of shorting it again at 66$ and target something less than that, I haven't given it much tought yet.
I agree with mihrutkanik, shorting oil is hardly the right thing to do now. Even if prices does not seem to be able to move up.
OPEC will want prices to stabalise around this range. At $35, it is hardly enough to profit. Thats why OPEC reduce their output... They want control over oil prices as a high proportion of their revenue comes from it.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #3,163
  • Jan 26, 2018 4:15am Jan 26, 2018 4:15am
Well you right not many changes, but finally they met agreement about pruduction cuts ant it looks like it works. Doesn't really matter for market,I prefer thinking about how's got advantage or looks more solid. 80 $ it's not far, still have enough time. And one more thing, how do you want big seller place positions, he can only make it by using others, that's what we will see in this year.
  • #3,164
  • Jan 26, 2018 9:54am Jan 26, 2018 9:54am
Quoting atom3
{quote} But why woukd it go to 80$ what has changed that much, since it was at 35$ ?
Rule 1: know the market

Global economy is ticking up, especially Euro-Zone. Oil demand seen rising in India and China. Saudis have finally persuaded the other major producers to stop flooding the market.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #3,165
  • Jan 26, 2018 9:58am Jan 26, 2018 9:58am
The market can be irrational when it comes to determining how soon it will reverse.

Oil can keep going up longer than your logic says.

Oil can reverse sooner than your logic says.

It's an amazing labyrinth of fractals for which no one can ever know which one is the right one to take at the time.
  • #3,166
  • Jan 30, 2018 11:43pm Jan 30, 2018 11:43pm
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  • #3,167
  • Jan 31, 2018 6:33am Jan 31, 2018 6:33am
Quoting atom3
What is the fundamental situation with Oil guys ? I am thinking of shorting it again at 66$ and target something less than that, I haven't given it much tought yet.
To be honest I regret that I didn't made this trade, my intuition was correct
  • #3,168
  • Jan 31, 2018 2:14pm Jan 31, 2018 2:14pm
Right.... if this continues oil is heading down, at least the WTI flavor is

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/us-o...ince-1970.html
(courtesy FF news ... it is good for something occasionally)
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #3,169
  • Jan 31, 2018 2:53pm Jan 31, 2018 2:53pm
My take on CL, 4pm reversal, possibly 65.15-65.20 if it can make it.
  • #3,170
  • Feb 1, 2018 12:10am Feb 1, 2018 12:10am
All traders should protest these new rules and laws:

Anyone see these new rules and laws? WTF?
5:1 leverage on equities=20% margin
20:1 leverage margin on all major indices=5% margin
30:1 leverage on major currency pairs=3.33%

for example Market Germany 30 for 10 CFDs require margin of 591 GBP and will later require 5,910 GBP

These new rules and laws are pathetic. Commodity trades will be affected also

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundam...e-Changes.html
  • #3,171
  • Feb 1, 2018 12:32am Feb 1, 2018 12:32am
Quoting stylinex
All traders should protest these new rules and laws: Anyone see these new rules and laws? WTF? 5:1 leverage on equities=20% margin 20:1 leverage margin on all major indices=5% margin 30:1 leverage on major currency pairs=3.33% for example Market Germany 30 for 10 CFDs require margin of 591 GBP and will later require 5,910 GBP These new rules and laws are pathetic. Commodity trades will be affected also https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundam...e-Changes.html...
I might get flammed for this but I don't think that its neccessarily a bad thing... Seeing the leverage used by some members around here scares me...
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #3,172
  • Feb 6, 2018 12:12am Feb 6, 2018 12:12am
probable bo at 66.50 this week & hold for next 6 months !perhaps it is leading the market , next follow by gold & currencies , 1-2 month late at top ok for them also but should do for about the rest of the year.so good for traders . take care , fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #3,173
  • Feb 9, 2018 7:21am Feb 9, 2018 7:21am
I'm targeting 59.17 price reversal.
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  • #3,174
  • Feb 9, 2018 11:44am Feb 9, 2018 11:44am
59.17 too early mate. I will wait for more 58.20 and even lower a bit, but not next week. Next week correction
  • #3,175
  • Feb 9, 2018 1:58pm Feb 9, 2018 1:58pm
Quoting mihrutkanik
59.17 too early mate. I will wait for more 58.20 and even lower a bit, but not next week. Next week correction
No doubt, you can never be 100% where it will ultimately land. in this case it was the extension of 59.17
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  • #3,176
  • Feb 9, 2018 2:33pm Feb 9, 2018 2:33pm
I was early on this one too.
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  • #3,177
  • Feb 15, 2018 3:54pm Feb 15, 2018 3:54pm
Quoting ItsAtrap
Hello, quiet Oil thread! My latest long play on Crude entered nearly Monday close. See weekly chart for current SL and targets. If it survives the week, it looks like I will be able to tighten SL significantly on Friday This isn't my biggest exposure (I am generally big short USD and biggest of all on EUR/USD) but it is certainly the most profitable at present! weekly chart (which shows curr targets too) and daily chart posted {image} {image}

So finally I closed all my Brent crude longs two weeks ago at 68.50

Since back in September 2017 I had posted multiple buy entry points as the price kept rising, with my first post, quoted above, made on Sept 6th when the price was around 50, referencing the late 60s as my long term target and posting relevant charts. With that target now hit, I have no firm trading view on crude, but I am leaning towards it beginning a descent to below 40. Only thing is, I remain bearish USD for now, so I wouldn't be surprised to see another crude rise as the USD remains weak. But I think the next big multimonth move for crude will be down.
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  • #3,178
  • Feb 15, 2018 10:32pm Feb 15, 2018 10:32pm
Should drop one more time Bellow 58.20
  • #3,179
  • Mar 5, 2018 3:56pm Mar 5, 2018 3:56pm
Yesterday
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Today
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Certified Technical Analyst at ICM Capital and FXDD
  • #3,180
  • Mar 8, 2018 1:40am Mar 8, 2018 1:40am
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