Journey to consistency

I appreciate the suggestion !
But I can't seem to part with my MAs, they've always been there and probably always will be there

I tried naked chart, and didn't think it was for me.

If you want to keep MAs all find, but tweak the use of it, else your results may be continue to be as always.
And that, lately for sure, is majority red.

I'm still keeping your words carved in my mind, "its a numbers game if it doesn't add up change something, it if it does keep it up", I'm at 10% dd obviously its not working at all whatever I have been doing *I've been all over the place* and its nothing to be proud of. I haven't been consistent in my approach. I need a change and consistency in my approach if I don't reverse this 10% dd it's game over, don't think I'm ready for live at all. Original plan was to go live Feb. On a brighter note, I have people keeping me accountable over here FF so that pushes me to do better until of course everything falls into their place

So it's Monday again, sometimes I wish weekends never existed just because I could keep on trading probably because I'm doing something that I enjoy, or maybe it's the joy of being self employed *without a pay* hint hint

Calendar is clear of any high impact news so I should be good to go with my pairs, EURAUD, GBPAUD, EURNZD, GBPNZD, EURCAD, GBPCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY any pair will do generally speaking but I specifically picked EUR and GBP crosses as they tend to move "a lot" when London gets going.

Let's get on to the business.

What suits me ?

Discretionary trading leaves me feeling like I'm blindfolded, yes I do see certain patterns and behaviors playing out on a naked chart but I often end up getting into unnecessary trades and usually end up net negative and the vicious cycle continues (I get into the gambling mode) on and on until my acc drains away.

Can I train myself to be a better discretionary trader ?

Probably yes, but it sure will take a lot of time and self control on my part to get my game going. I personally prefer some kind of a guide to keep me from bad trades and get me on good ones. Otherwise I'm impatient and can be "too" fickle to trade discretionary profitably. It does not suit me I need solid rules that I can see visually that's been backtested and forward tested over away at least 10-15 trades to gain some kind of confidence in my method.

Method is everything, a method that suits your temperament is the key to consistency. And I can't be consistent if I'm not consistent with my method or my method does not keep me consistent. I think big part of the reason why I haven't reached consistency is that I haven't been consistent in my method and my method"s" have not kept me consistent.

So what suits me ?

A mechanical system that screams at me when a buy or a sell occurs. The method should consist of rules to keep me from bad trades and get me on good trades. Because knowing when to sit out is 1 ingredient to reaching consistency on top of getting on good trades which I haven't able to do at all, I was all over the place well I was gambling compulsively up until today. But things will change and it must change now!

And on last note, trading is extremely difficult I keep saying if I had known hard it was going to be and how long it takes to get your game going I probably would have pursued something else. Then again what is easy ? in life unless you have inherited a huge wealth from your parents/family. Nothing is easy , everything requires a great deal of effort, time, perseverance and patience.

There's a reason why I was attracted to trading in the first place, if there wasn't I probably would be spending my precious hours onto something else. I'm too fickle to be dedicating 4 years of my life to things that I don't enjoy or see any value. No turning back from here. Whatever happens I'll keep giving my best.

Trading is a battlefield, and I mean it truly is there's no invisible hand controlling the price, buyers and sellers are in constant tug of war and you see it on any chart, probably why its so damn hard to make money because it's a battlefield. So don't take it lightly as I have been. If you don't have a proven method aka plan what do you expect when you put yourself on the battlefield ? Have a precise plan/method/rules ! and be prepared for the battle otherwise it's game over.

I mentioned that I couldn't part with my MAs and that naked chart wasn't for me. Well after lots of experiments with MAs and oscillators I'm back again to where I started. And I'd been trading MAs as long as I can remember funny that I never managed to make money with it ! But I remember when I was fairly new I traded naked charts because I was overwhelmed with the choice of indicators I didn't know which one was for what. Maybe that was for the better, if I had kept trading naked charts maybe I would have been better off. The point is I don't think I do see any value in using indicators after using them for 4 years, and after playing around with couple of MAs on the weekends and yesterday I was fed up, I was frustrated.

I read about divergence how they're a lagging indicator as with pretty much every indicator out there. The thing with indicators is that you have to use it in conjunction with many confluence factors to be able to successfully generate consistent result over time. But I wanted something simple and yet crystal clear, the more lines I put up on my chart the more confused I became. And it doesn't help much when majority of successful traders I came across trades PA + naked charts, then I came across trading round numbers. When I was fairly I had heard about importance of round numbers some people might call it levels. Then I just randomly opened up a GJ chart 1h no indicators no nothing and just looked at it as it is, I couldn't believe how clear everything was without any lines interfering I could see the picture and the round numbers were a treat, of course to make anything out of it I need a strategy (I already have devised one) I couldn't believe how simple it was to trade clean chart and PA off of round numbers. But until I see solid result of course everything is still an imagination. But I think that's a major milestone regardless after fiddling with indicators for so long and being lost in the hazy fog I'm starting to gain some clarity. I did actually take a counter trend trade on GJ at a round number it did go up 50pips as projected on my other demo. Hmmm, and 50pips is a lot, I haven't even been able to capture 10pips lately by blindly following MAs.

I'm still trading on my other demo for the moment, I picked up gold and GJ as they seemed to correspond to round numbers better than the rest. Gold fits right into my schedule 9AM until 7AM frankfurt then another slot gets going at 7AM frankfurt until London open or 1h hour after. So I in an ideal situation I could trade gold in the morning and GJ in the afternoon until US open. Whatever works I'll do it, if it brings me net positive expectancy its a keeper.

Gold short +340pips sound a lot but when you're trading 2lots it's about 6.5$ still gain is a gain.

problem with trading gold on 1h is that risk will be as much as the gain sometimes slightly above not an ideal situation (in my case) that needs to be worked out.

GU, GJ both down so is gold and EU seem to be risk off session for now I've got no crystal balls you trade what you see. I'm going to start trading GU and GJ on the demo acc attached and if what I'm doing is working then my DD should decline that's all I'm after for now.

Waiting on the round number reaction thus far GU might reach 1.4 first GJ has fallen 100pips since the Asian session, thought it would bounce off of 1.5250 at least until 1.53 but who knows we'll see.

GU short breach of 1.40 level PA bearish didn't hold target 1.3950

out

GJ countertrend long +20pips.
I realize that I have to be careful with countertrend trends.

I probably should settle at 30pips for countertrends and a little more for with the trends. Being greedy is never too good my TE shows it.

getting to 153.00 round number
50pips thus far , I took profit way too early I'll settle at 40-50pips, 1 trade a day is good enough if its 50.

What can I do with my round numbers + PA method ?

I'm seeing 3 possible scenarios:

1. Countertrend trades
2. Trade with the trend trades - round numbers should acts as a resistance or support with PA confirmation of course
3. Breakouts - breakouts can be taken either with the trend OR at exhaustion points never against the trend, if we're going for round
number long trades after major falls that would be countertrend trade

I so far have traded 1 countertrend trade, yesterday during London perfect example of with the trend happened and during US countertrend setup yesterday GJ moved plentiful 100pips I think for now I'm not going to try to capture 100pips as you can see I'm barely scraping 20pips so I need to work the range 40-50pips as I improve I probably will try to hold trades longer or will try to trade more than once a day if there's a setup. When price is away from the round numbers I won't be trading AT ALL.

"barely scraping"?

lets put into context what even 'only' net 20 pips can on your current account.

position size smallest, minimum size...0.01 lot.
net 20 pips =2$ gain
equity in TE: 1000$
gain = 0.2% a day
make that consistent average, it is approx 4% a month.
still consistent, work up the lot size to 0.02 lot...

on 1000$, the numbers may not impress, but do that 0.2% most days, and within a year you may have 100k to manage, with a 4% month earning you probably 800$ as fees.

all starts with the mindset.
you dont really have to improve a lot to make more than 0.2% average daily profit.
you will need to improve to start to make that 0.2% average daily profit.
there is a huge difference between 2 similar sounding statements and the goals behind them!!

absolutely !

you always come in right on time and punch me in the face with the truth
the question should have been can I make 4% a month consistently, daily target is somewhat unfitting for my style if I see no tradeable setups I won't be trading the day at all but I do get the gist. When you do the numbers (which I enjoy very much) 4% a month is 48% yoy now where does anyone get to enjoy this much return ? So I see the potential when you point it out , the bigger picture sure with 1000$ acc 48% doesn't mean anything but with a larger balance I can see where this is going

1. there is no daily target, AVERAGE only.

2. 4% monthly if compounded, is considerable more than 48%/yr.

3. from losing more than making ( ie. currently), a 1000$ account could look a lot worst than +48%. any gain, on any balance beats a loss.

4. i dont trade every single day. sometimes i dont see the right setups, sometimes i dont feel to, sometimes even taker loss for the day. keyword: average!

( the average 0.2% can be from +0.2, +0.5, -0.2, +0.3....or +2.8, -2.9, +1.1, +0.8....etc...but as math is, to have it one wont need large daily swings, and a 'low' daily average number could be achieved with relative smooth equity curve too. Of course work with a different than 0.2% average too, it is nothing but an example that first your minimum available lot, your demo equity, and the 'barely scraped' net 20 pips )

about the incubation program , must I open up an account with Axi ? I need to fund my acc soon if things work out for the better sometime next month I was going to go with pepperstone my usual broker, but I just thought who knows what will happen from here on ? if I risk more than my account can take I might blow it up and then may never come back again dealing with some rough patches so I have no time to waste as people around me thinks I'm a compulsive gambler, a social recluse who sits around the laptop all day long and have discussions with imaginary friends (ff) spends the day doing nothing.

It sucks but we all have to endure some form of negativity and rejection on what we do from family and friends until we start making money of course consistently then everyone should just shut it up. I'm not there at all but I'd love to be, but still under some form of pressure from family considering my situation a part of me thinks I should risk higher and aim for higher returns but another part of me says don't do it, you're going to blow it up and I'm 80% sure if I do aim higher return by risking more than I can take I'll end up losing my acc ,in theory I could deposit another batch but really how many more blown up accounts do I need to go through ?

Already have 2 under my belt nothing to be proud of, and don't wish to add any more badges. It's extremely hard to be a trader and I mean a full timer, probably the toughest career path and yet the least appreciated, heck if I were doing residency even without any pay I wouldn't be picked up this much and labeled as "does nothing all day long" "gambler". No one understand. Apologize for being a bit of a whiner . But the point is I'm getting back down on the ground *really thanks to you PF!* as to how much capital we need to make a good living that its not going to be rags to riches story AT ALL. Even if I don't get funded I still see the importance of keeping the DD below 10% and "averaging" 4% a month on a 1000$, for one I could add more funds in 1 year and keep it going by then I should be a consistent trader and my account would still be there. Consistency after all is all it matters. And risking way above what the account can take will never get me to consistency.

a track record is always useful, and can lead multiple opportunities. mine had.
but dd% need to be on the low side, and cant get around, that demo and cent accounts not counting...so, yes, some point you will need to fund a live account.
i personally think the larger it is ( nothing huge, but more than 1k if possible) the better the flexibility, as well as the discipline...and in turn the chance to achieve the goal.
i firmly believe that the " trade with what you can afford to lose" is aligned with the gambling mentality...the moment a trader thinks of it he can afford to lose it will likely to take larger risks than he should.
a trading account should not be something that one can easily afford to lose, and easily reload...it should not equal the trip between the blackjack table to the nearest ATM.
perhaps the exception a tiny 'training wheels' account for absolute beginners.
but as a semi-proficient trader, no one should trade with money he can afford to lose...cos likely he will, taking on too much risk.
some healthy fear is a good thing. keeps a trader out from the biggest trouble.

GJ short going, my method allows me single entry if there is during London I won't be going after everything when I can't even take advantage of London move fully. Well today's short trade is surely testing my patience to the max. Holding this for about 1h we're sitting right at 154.00 round number it's going to be a tough one but if I got the timing and the direction right it should break through without hitting my SL which is placed fairly above the 154.50 area. I'm trying to trade what I see + some logic we'll see how this trade gets on.

When price started to push up above the 154 level -15pips against me fear of uncertainty started creeping in, did I get in at the right time ? did I get the direction right ? and I can only imagine how I would have reacted if I had taken a bigger risk 0.05lot and above, I can only imagine. So I definitely see an upside (lots of it) to trading smaller lots as I'm still not 80% sure that I've got an edge even if I do I have realized the importance of controlling the risk and greed because nothing is guaranteed in trading , generally speaking in all aspects of life so why go all in you'll most likely going to lose your account your confidence and probably will cause yourself a lot of damage than you may ever realize.

But on the other side of the coin, I also do see the potential you may think it will take forever to making a living out of a 1K acc, and it sure is but provided you've got an edge and you're disciplined enough to follow your plan as your acc grows (plus GJ moves about 50-80pips) you can gradually increase the lot size therefore increasing your gain as months pass by maybe in a year you would be sitting with a healthy account balance to finally be able to withdraw something in the higher 3 digits or lower 4 digits. So it's not all bad, but only if you've got an edge and have the discipline to trade with the plan. It's a little too ambitious for PF's taste but if you work around numbers where you're comfortable as opposed to your acc size, and according to your method I don't see why it can't be done.