Ramblings of a Data Scientist!

Hypothesis 1: When 1m1 and 1m5 are tangential in reversal zones, a high probability move ensue.


Historically without posting every chart, Hypothesis 1 seems to be true on the long side only due to the 8 to 1 prevalence of long tangentials to short tangentials. Most of the short tangentials occur outside the reversal area. [MORE WORK NEEDED].

No guarantees, still experimental:

1. midday GMT: Long cycle up for no less than 4 hours.
2. 1 will experiment using the 1 min' Sooth to time a long entry at midday GMT. I expect a long micro cycle and short micro cycle between now and midday. I won't trade these.

Well, that's the long micro cycle almost complete. Ideally I'll see a short micro cycle starting within the hour. It should last for 1 to 2 hours then I will prep' for the 4 hour long (lasting at least 4 hours) starting somewhere between midday and 13:00.

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Ideally, I want to see a micro short extension to at least between the 1.00 to 1.618 which is approx' 2410.

Of course it could stay in trend mode until midday (unlikely, I think) which isn't something I've factored into the plan...thinking.

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Should go to 2415 back to 2421 then 2410.

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Okay, so it went to 2414 then to 24217...so far so good...no-one can fault a 1 pip margin of error but will it get to 2410 or does the micro trend down have to play out slowly to fulfil it's time and price requirements, or am I just wrong?

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10:58: So price has reached the at least 2410 level so all is going perfectly for the long setup at midday, I am simply waiting for a start of a micro long cycle upwards that I suspect will develop into the largest long move of the day...but I could be wrong.

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Clearly, the long cycle up was worth 30ish pips and the long cycle down was worth 25 pips. Choosing to perfect my understanding of micro moves before trading them again. For now, I will use micro moves to get me in at the beginning of more substantial moves.

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11:13: the scope certainly exists to build positions in the fashion of the Davit Pivot System. It is conceivable at this point that micro trend trending would be highly profitable if building positions using micro lot/small lot sizes. The major weakness of the Sooth approach are the times when trend mode enters the picture so splitting one trade into many smaller lot sized trades would certainly reduce the impact of trend mode significantly. The only issue is not being able to take the level of risk to generate the returns needed to succeed at the challenge of compounding a small amount into substantial amount in record time.

The long at midday play is on hold. I will decide if it is worth it in 5 mins. The conditions have changed.

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I won't take a long to hold for 4 hours, conditions have changed. I will experiment opening micro lots.

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The long and hold for 4 hours may play out but the probabilities have shifted just below the threshold necessary for a very high edge but there is still an edge present.

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I'm starting to wonder if the longer-term retracement down is underway as prepare over the weekend and posted above somewhere. Either Way, I'd need a short micro trend starting below 2397 to enter.

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Micro trend normally last between 1 to 2 hours. The short MT started at 10:30.

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Still full on short trend mode.

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Now at the level that usually confirms a micro long swing (micro in the sense the information is derived from a 1 min chart not the magnitude of the swing, you don't pick up 20, 30, 60 pips scalping and the micro swings offer these level of rewards). However, I'll be waiting for a retracement to 61.8 (2381) and providing the low isn't taken out then I'll long.

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My understanding of the micro swings is evolving quickly. I am some way from being willing to trade a well stocked live account, but am feeling more confident to start to trade the pull backs (61.8) and flip the trade when the pullback reaches the target (perhaps it will only be a hedge for now). This will only be on a demo when I start to try this. The main micro trend pullbacks are worth from 10 to 20 pips so why waste them.

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Low taken out. Waiting.

This is the longer term retracement underway. I will revisit Sooth tomorrow after the dust has settled.

14:44: In a retrace but today's offer is long 2339 with a 30 pip SL and close at the end of the session. This play offers fantastic R:R over the long run.

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Too busy! Trying to construct one of JR97 (https://www.forexfactory.com/jr97) Wave forecasts to see if it can help me workout how long the trend mode will last. The content of FF certainly keeps a researcher busy!


Who knows! First experiment with this thing! But it's reckons we're going back to 2350 to form a micro H&S. Let's see. Just looks like a mirror image of the actual price to the left.

Still in long micro cycle approaching reversal/trend mode zone.

Reversal. Bit late busy researching!

Ignoring Sooth. It has reverse down.

15:56: The wave forecast suggests this is the time of the bottom until 16:37, still waiting for 2350.

16:00: Price dropped 20 pips to 2352.

Next waveF shows 2358 then 2347 then 2361. I don't believe it will hit these for a minute!

Spooky sheeeiit!

Not perfect...rapid solution development and all that but WaveF clearly forecasts price is going to increase now. Let's see. Again, it looks pretty much like the last 60 bars of price so I no doubt needs a lot more work.


16:17: 20+ pips since reversal mode. That's over 75 pips today via the cycles and it is like anyone can claim this is bullshit (not that I would give a fk) because I am making calls in real-time.

16:25: Sooth Reversal to the upside.

16:31: and price moves up. Not sure how far it will go but it pretty clear, Sooth will probably generate in a morning more pips than the bemoaners of new technologies in trading can generate in a week. WaveF needs much more work but I think it will be worth it! As soon as I can deal with how Sooth behaves in the reversal zone (trend/consolidation/reversal), I'll be in a good place. I can't look to traditional indies because they have too much lag. JR97 (https://www.forexfactory.com/jr97) wave forecast could be the perfect solution if I can create a version.

The offer that can't be refused was hit at 2339.


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I should quit this BS research and just trade the EAs, the offer and the 85% setup! But cursed be me, this sheeit is my hobby and first love!

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TP targets of the offer:

1. 2387
2. 2433
3. 2467
4. 2527

Or close at the end of the session. 2387 is the minimum price target.

hmmmm:

Daily WaveF experimental.

OK. Sooth is in the reversal zone: trend mode.


18:09: Still reversal zone: trend mode. I'm done for today. Sooth has correctly forecast 150 pips of price movement today if 'the offer' is included that is approaching 190 pips. The real-time evidence is above.

Entry @ 2339 and TP1 2387. Possibly the best entry/exit of the day!


Nah! 2427 to 2338 would have been much better but the noise in trend mode is a little to high at the moment. I've managed to clean 25% of the noise which should help riding the length of the trend mode.

Confirmed reversal to the downside. However, the time of the day means the price may not move very far.

The forecast I used in that chart isn't a mirror. Although, I did do a lot of work with mirror forecasts. The hard part with those is finding the mirror inflection point and then guessing how long the mirror pattern plays out. Below are some charts from 2012. It was about 2007 or so when I programmed the mirror indicator. It doesn't work anymore since about 4 yrs ago when the major mql4 update happened. I don't even have the mql file anymore.

http://content.screencast.com/users/JR97_4x/folders/Charts/media/295cfd10-f3d8-4eb9-be0c-996278999fb2/14%202012-12-04.gif
http://content.screencast.com/users/JR97_4x/folders/Charts/media/b1a43937-10f9-4b61-aff3-b6fb65ef9ab6/13%202012-12-04.gif

What I've been showing in charts of late is a bit more involved than just a displaced MA. It's actually on oscillator that I've done the math on to put into the charting area. The actual values are a wave revolving around the 0 axis. And since it's an oscillator, typical oscillator methods can be applied such as divergence. However, having that wavy line in the charting area can mislead when you're thinking the forecast lowest low is the bottom, but it's the next higher low that is the bottom due to said divergence.

http://content.screencast.com/users/JR97_4x/folders/Default/media/16a27dfe-8c7a-4d2a-8aac-d404448523ce/20180129_gbpusd_02.GIF

Anywho, like your work. Good approach. Are you really a data scientist? I'm a developer servicing the analytics department of a financial institution. I sit next to a few data scientists.

Cheers JR.

I know your forecasts aren't mirror forecasts. I was referring to my initial attempt to create a wave chart, it seemed to be a mirror reflection until I made some minor adjustments. I also enjoy your work especially the stuff from 2012; the material about aligning lines from multiple timeframes, I've bookmarked it and will dig into it thoroughly when I get the chance.

If a data scientist works with data using statistical and non-parametric methods to validate findings empirically, I'm a data scientist.

Keep up the good work!!!

Offers that can't be refused:

Long @ 2272 - SL 30 pips
Short @ 2495 - SL 30 pips

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Reversal zone: short trend mode.


00:42: Still in short trend mode but on the verge of being a confirmed trend reversal but not there yet. Time for rest.