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The Swamp

  • #15,241
  • Jan 26, 2018 10:57am Jan 26, 2018 10:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i meant it should go there.
I just figured out a min ago what you meant too after i look up those Cs .. thanks.. it should do usually except it is struggling today to get over...
  • #15,242
  • Jan 26, 2018 11:29am Jan 26, 2018 11:29am
What a spike in usdjpy..kuroda did it reverse this time ...on wed it was treasury secrrtase munichen dollar sell off..then Trump yest dollar spike ..today kuroad told inflation on target USDjpy selloff now..kuroda news again..usdjpy spike..what a roller coaster week.due to davos..
  • #15,243
  • Jan 26, 2018 11:34am Jan 26, 2018 11:34am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I just figured out a min ago what you meant too after i look up those Cs .. thanks.. it should do usually except it is struggling today to get over...
on a small time frame it may need a close below 2418 now.. the day week close is at 2426.. it may help support it now.

any way the day closed lower., the week closed higher.. its at 2426 atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #15,244
  • Edited 12:19pm Jan 26, 2018 11:41am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} on a small time frame it may need a close below 2418 now.. the day week close is at 2426.. it may help support it now. any way the day closed lower., the week closed higher.. its at 2426 atm
it can't get over 18H, back down to 12H and Lc,...that is what I am reading now...
I notice something , for example today, since my H1 is downtrend.. Cl will have some struggle...if my H1 is up trend as Cl, Cl will be all smooth sailing...it may have something to do with short term trend momentum shift.....even though big pic is correct..
  • #15,245
  • Jan 26, 2018 12:04pm Jan 26, 2018 12:04pm
Hello, could i ask when was Trump event added to calendar ??? +- time ?
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #15,246
  • Jan 26, 2018 12:12pm Jan 26, 2018 12:12pm
Quoting Malchi
Hello, could i ask when was Trump event added to calendar ??? +- time ?
its Friday, i wouldn't overlook major news coming out this evening after hours.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #15,247
  • Jan 26, 2018 12:25pm Jan 26, 2018 12:25pm
Lc lower..see how NY does...2393...currently its another ugly day candle...
  • #15,248
  • Jan 26, 2018 12:38pm Jan 26, 2018 12:38pm
Quoting euroboy2208
What a spike in usdjpy..kuroda did it reverse this time ...on wed it was treasury secrrtase munichen dollar sell off..then Trump yest dollar spike ..today kuroad told inflation on target USDjpy selloff now..kuroda news again..usdjpy spike..what a roller coaster week.due to davos..
I just saw what you meant..what a spike...
  • #15,249
  • Jan 26, 2018 12:47pm Jan 26, 2018 12:47pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} it can't get over 18H, back down to 12H and Lc,...that is what I am reading now... I notice something , for example today, since my H1 is downtrend.. your things will have some struggle...if my H1 is up trend as your C, yours will be all smooth sailing...it may have something to do with short term trend momentum shift.....even though big pic is correct.. hope you understand my chienglish...
the week closed above last week. sometimes it retraces that candle some. next week seems to be a buy the dip cycle. bulls will probably have a hurdle, caused by 2502.. it may not go north w/o a 2507 Lday close. it may go back in a range toppy at 25xx ish.. like 2289 did.. got a 30 m close below 2426 and 2418.. that seems st bearish to me. probably to test 2383..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #15,250
  • Jan 26, 2018 12:47pm Jan 26, 2018 12:47pm
Just got COT report for Jan 23... For Euro...institutions added 3 times more longs 7821 lots than shorts 2604 lots when price closed at 2298...

For dollar, its more pathetic, they closed 2880 lots longs and closed 20 lots shorts..
no wonder we saw EU 2500 two days after the report..
more to follow tomorrow...
  • #15,251
  • Edited 1:03pm Jan 26, 2018 12:49pm | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the week closed above last week. sometimes it retraces that candle some. next week seems to be a buy the dip cycle. bulls will probably have a hurdle, caused by 2502.. it may not go north w/o a 2507 Lday close. it may go back in a range toppy at 25xx ish.. like 2289 did.. got a 30 m close below 2426 and 2418.. that seems st bearish to me. probably to test 2383..
you are right...we need to buy the dip next week...
  • #15,252
  • Jan 26, 2018 12:57pm Jan 26, 2018 12:57pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I just saw what you meant..what a spike...
I meant to say..if anyone would have brought usdjpy at low today..in 10 mins that huge candle spike gave 60 points up..so easy money..but need luck..
  • #15,253
  • Jan 26, 2018 1:20pm Jan 26, 2018 1:20pm
my target for the longs is 1.2464 but this thing can still go above it before falling... let's see how this thing reacts next week, monthly close... should be action packed
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #15,254
  • Jan 26, 2018 1:51pm Jan 26, 2018 1:51pm
c
Quoting Boulder
{quote} you are right...we need to buy the dip next week...
15m working some.. being under 2426.. makes my nervous about my long. need to break its /R
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #15,255
  • Jan 26, 2018 2:02pm Jan 26, 2018 2:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
c{quote} 15m working some.. being under 2426.. makes my nervous about my long. need to break its /R {image}
I didn't pay attention, I had #3 short triggered 2 hours ago....machine doesn't think like human....too brave..to short at bottom..that is great..
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  • #15,256
  • Jan 26, 2018 2:38pm Jan 26, 2018 2:38pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I didn't pay attention, I had #3 short triggered 2 hours ago....machine doesn't think like human....too brave..to short at bottom..that is great.. {image}
i got 3 brokers closes ranging from 2425/28... my L close at 2426..NY near on top of London. Friday evening has had some juicy news for the past 6/8 months.. lets see if it continues tonight.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #15,257
  • Edited 3:08pm Jan 26, 2018 2:54pm | Edited 3:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i got 3 brokers closes ranging from 2425/28... my L close at 2426..NY near on top of London. Friday evening has had some juicy news for the past 6/8 months.. lets see if it continues tonight.
I use FXCM 2428.. Bloomberg 2427.., they are close..my L close is also 2426..
so its mix ..L lower and NY higher.....I wonder Asia probably won't hit high or low point next trading day....
  • #15,258
  • Jan 26, 2018 3:42pm Jan 26, 2018 3:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its Friday, i wouldn't overlook major news coming out this evening after hours.
just wanted to know if it was added after event, or some hour before cause i didnt see it at thursday evening, and my system is telling me to not trade if i know that day will trump speak... but i didnt know its coming and i got few losses so i wonder.
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #15,259
  • Edited 11:21am Jan 27, 2018 8:45am | Edited 11:21am
The largest Euro net longs on record again shown in the lastest COT as of Tuesday, Jan 23, 2018.
The institutions net long Euro positions increased during the last week by 5,227 lots to 144,717 lots.

7,831 long positions were added, and 2,604 short positions were added as well. Now Longs total 262,175 lots vs shorts total 117,458 lots .

69% long exposure vs 31% short exposure, which is the same as the previous week

Price was in a range from 2165 to 2323 with close at 2298 that week

Three times of Longs being added as price was consolidating 5 days in a row from around 2200 to 2300 area,it indicates they believe Euro will rise from 2300 area,

Some Shorts being added as well, as they may prepare for some pullback or hedge some their longs.

Bullish bias remains

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For Euro, they have built their net long positions since 5/9/2017.
Therefore, the bullish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,260
  • Edited 11:25am Jan 27, 2018 9:20am | Edited 11:25am
For Dollar, the lastest COT as of Tuesday, Jan 23, 2018 shows the institutions net long dollar positions decreased during last week by 2,860 lots , net positions negative 4,107 lots.They are net shorting the dollar.

2,880 long positions were closed and small 20 short positions closed as well, . Now Longs total 31,236 lots vs shorts total 35,353 lots .

47% long exposure vs 53% short exposure , Longs drop 2% and shorts add 2% from the previous week

Price was consolidating between 90.06 to 90.88 area and closed at 90.10,

Larger amount of the longs being closed , it indicates their belief the dollar price is moving down from 90 area.

Bearish bias remains…

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For dollar, they have been decreasing their long positions for over a year
Therefore, the bearish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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