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The Swamp

  • #14,741
  • Jan 19, 2018 1:13pm Jan 19, 2018 1:13pm
Quoting Boulder
From my #2 favorite book... Martin Schwartz: ‘The Pit Bull’s Guide To Successful Trading’. Page 287: I’ve said it before, and I’m going to say it again, because it cannot be overemphasized: the most important change in my trading career occurred when I learned to divorce my ego from the trade. Trading is a Psychological Game. Most...
thank you
v
  • #14,742
  • Jan 19, 2018 2:01pm Jan 19, 2018 2:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if next week retraces this week some.. 2166/2228.. 2197 is in the middle.. it tested 2227 and 2166. it failed there just like 2289. i am still long with the trend..
Got it !
Thanks!
  • #14,743
  • Jan 19, 2018 2:07pm Jan 19, 2018 2:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if next week retraces this week some.. 2166/2228.. 2197 is in the middle.. it tested 2227 and 2166. it failed there just like 2289. i am still long with the trend..
2197 is also 1/4 from 2166/2294 something?
And yes, long with this trend for 25ish for almost sure hihi
  • #14,744
  • Jan 19, 2018 3:16pm Jan 19, 2018 3:16pm
Sorry to interrupt your bullish talk, but I have different targets from 2295...1799, 1670 and even down to 1370. Not saying you should go short massively...just something to think about.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #14,745
  • Edited 3:29pm Jan 19, 2018 3:17pm | Edited 3:29pm
Just got COT report, let you know in Jan 16 COT, for Euro, institutions added 12,291 longs and added 17,492 shorts; For Dollar institutions added 547 longs and added 2,734 shorts; more to come tomorrow..
  • #14,746
  • Jan 19, 2018 6:38pm Jan 19, 2018 6:38pm
Quoting Boulder
Just got COT report, let you know in Jan 16 COT, for Euro, institutions added 12,291 longs and added 17,492 shorts; For Dollar institutions added 547 longs and added 2,734 shorts; more to come tomorrow..
if the case, the week closed higher. i suspect you will be able to sell higher. maybe 2289/66 area
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #14,747
  • Edited 7:03pm Jan 19, 2018 6:44pm | Edited 7:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if the case, the week closed higher. i suspect you will be able to sell higher. maybe 2289/66 area
yes, I think your 2300 or higher is in their plan..except they want to drop some first before taking off....
the reason is they added longs and shorts,,to get the best price on longs being added as price rallies is to add shorts,so when price does pullback they can close those shorts giving them a better price on their longs.
i thought they would do profit taking to close longs but they didn't ,, instead they added more longs ,,

For DXY,, its so bearish by them...it gets worse this week
  • #14,748
  • Jan 19, 2018 7:07pm Jan 19, 2018 7:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if the case, the week closed higher. i suspect you will be able to sell higher. maybe 2289/66 area
Are you still holding long?
Beware of Draghi
  • #14,749
  • Jan 19, 2018 7:16pm Jan 19, 2018 7:16pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Sorry to interrupt your bullish talk, but I have different targets from 2295...1799, 1670 and even down to 1370. Not saying you should go short massively...just something to think about.
Not to be bullish at highs, we have been talking 216x, 22xx, 24xx since 03xx lows. DXY has room till 80.xx.
I will be Euro bear after Draghi’s first hike. Even if this retraces lower than my expectations I’ll be buyer. The Euro hike talks will shoot eu up very easily. Unless some Italian banks fail etc etc.

Either way market is always right. I can be wrong...
  • #14,750
  • Jan 19, 2018 7:19pm Jan 19, 2018 7:19pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} yes, I think your 2300 or higher is in their plan..except they want to drop some first before taking off.... the reason is they added longs and shorts,,to get the best price on longs being added as price rallies is to add shorts,so when price does pullback they can close those shorts giving them a better price on their longs. i thought they would do profit taking to close longs but they didn't ,, instead they added more longs ,, For DXY,, its so bearish by them...it gets worse this week
one thing that I am not sure though, the day after the report, euro did hit 2323 on 17th,, then big sell off afterwards.. I am not sure that is the price point for them to start to take profit on longs.. I can't know till next week cot report...
  • #14,751
  • Jan 19, 2018 7:27pm Jan 19, 2018 7:27pm
On larger tfs this levels are huge S and R areas (1.20/30), a sideway market on a larger range is likely. If there wasn’t an uptrend in daily/weely I would have closed my higher longs and wait for a larger pullback and bottoming environment to add longs. I want to short it but a bit higher due to obvious trend/momentum I didn’t short 23xx. I may kick my self in ass if it drops down till 17xx again. I’ll see... it’s never late.
  • #14,752
  • Jan 19, 2018 7:28pm Jan 19, 2018 7:28pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Not to be bullish at highs, we have been talking 216x, 22xx, 24xx since 03xx lows. DXY has room till 80.xx. I will be Euro bear after Draghi’s first hike. Even if this retraces lower than my expectations I’ll be buyer. The Euro hike talks will shoot eu up very easily. Unless some Italian banks fail etc etc. Either way market is always right. I can be wrong...
so far,, institutions are on your side...they have been net long Euro since 5/9/2017...
  • #14,753
  • Jan 19, 2018 7:35pm Jan 19, 2018 7:35pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} so far,, institutions are on your side...they have been net long Euro since 5/9/2017...
Market buys future that what retailers don’t see. As long as market buys expectations of ECB’s hike those will keep buying Euro. Market tend to peak before huge reversals and there wasn’t neither technical nor fundamental peak.
I don’t see any major changes that will change larger charts directions.
  • #14,754
  • Jan 19, 2018 7:42pm Jan 19, 2018 7:42pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Market buys future that what retailers don’t see. As long as market buys expectations of ECB’s hike those will keep buying Euro. Market tend to peak before huge reversals and there wasn’t neither technical nor fundamental peak. I don’t see any major changes that will change larger charts directions.
yes ,you are right, we can argue all we want on fundamental and technical, In the end. it is a speculative driven market...

Good night...have a nice weekend...
  • #14,755
  • Jan 19, 2018 7:43pm Jan 19, 2018 7:43pm
...
Let’s see next week Draghish talks...

Quoting Boulder
{quote} yes ,you are right, we can argue all we want on fundamental and technical, In the end. it is a speculative driven market... Good night...have a nice weekend...
Have a good one
  • #14,756
  • Edited 12:53am Jan 20, 2018 12:26am | Edited 12:53am
cryptos catch bids tonight...
  • #14,757
  • Jan 20, 2018 3:33pm Jan 20, 2018 3:33pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} make or break for ripple.. expecting a big move jan 24 in crypto.. some much higher, some big drop. {image}

only a few A's will be given is what the guy said...well see...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #14,758
  • Jan 21, 2018 1:25am Jan 21, 2018 1:25am
For Euro, the lastest COT as of Tuesday, Jan 16, 2018 shows the institutions net long Euro positions decreased during the last week by 5,201 lots to 139,490 lots.

12,291 long positions were added, and 17,492 short positions were added as well. Now Longs total 254,344 lots vs shorts total 114,854 lots .

69% long exposure vs 31% short exposure, which 2% decreased in longs and 2% increased in shorts from previous week

Price moved from 1923 low on 1/10 to 2283 high on 1/16 with close at 2259.

Longs being added as price was rallying 4 days in a row from 1923 to 2283 through weekly supply zone

Shorts being added as price rallies, it indicates they prepared for pullback from weekly supply zone, later they can close those shorts helping them a better price on their longs.

Bullish bias remains but cautious, no sign for reversal yet since no profit taking by closing longs, but pullback is in the making...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro cot 01162018.png Size: 21 KB
  • #14,759
  • Edited 10:30am Jan 21, 2018 10:19am | Edited 10:30am
For Dollar, the lastest COT as of Tuesday, Jan 16, 2018 shows the institutions net long dollar positions decreased during the last week by 2,087 lots , net positions came to negative 1,247 lots.

647 long positions were added and 2,734 short positions, which 4 times of longs positions, were added as well . Now Longs total 34,116 lots vs shorts total 35,363 lots .

49% long exposure vs 51% short exposure , Longs drop 2% and shorts add 2% from the previous week

Price moved from 92.58 high on 1/10/2018 to 90.34 low on 1/16/2018 and closed at 90.47,

Larger amount of the shorts being added , it indicates their belief the dollar can't break out of the daily supply zone at 92.5 area,they are in preparation for price moving down

Small longs being added while close to daily demand area 90.04-89.80

Bearish bias remains…
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dxy cot 01162018.png Size: 22 KB
  • #14,760
  • Jan 21, 2018 1:08pm Jan 21, 2018 1:08pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} only a few A's will be given is what the guy said...well see...
maybe even less than before, the drop will affect the ratings.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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