The Equilibrium, a key to success!

Hello Trader Waldo,

the name is: TPO-Range

best regards

TPO-Range stands for: Take Profit (Obviously) in Range.

More london session equilibrium Win on EurAud. Hit the london consolidation from the previous london session:




I spilt the order. Closed 90% of it and let the 10% run.

Thanks Bionics. I'm sorry but I do not speak English. How is your indicator set up? Where can I find a guide that explains how to use it?

Hello nightfox84,

Thank you for your request, I think that you will not like my answer.

The Market Profile Indicator is a classic implementation that shows the price density over the set time frame, and thus the most important price levels of the trading day. You can set the time units, pip sizes, position and much more. This indicator shows you which price levels were frequented, but not where the course went. This is nicely visible on my chart picture from today at noon 14:16 CET. This indicator helps me to underpin the POC lines I have drawn. I could do without market profile, not POC. But every trader sees differently and that's a good thing.

I've tried over 1,000 indicators in my many years and everyone did not do what I promised in the beginning. When I was SHORT the classes went up, when I was LONG the classes went down. I thought so, you never can. My wife then said: Then just trade high when a green bar comes, but then it was not so easy.

Until I sat down in front of the bare chart image and started reading price charts. There everything is in it what you need to know. In the beginning these are just jumbled bars, but gradually it becomes a picture. It's like a language, it does not learn from one day to the next. You need 10,000 hours for that, then you are able to read the chart image.

The big-player traders sometimes work without a chart image, that's the chart's Oderbook, but that too has to be learned over many years.

There are some traders who have no idea about trading and who lose more money than they win, who then sell themselves as coaches or their expensive systems (EA). If someone had found a system to crack the Powerball, would you think he would sell this system? No, he would win the Powerball Jackpot every month. If you make a trade now, no matter in which direction you have a 50% chance of winning. This chance is greater than in any casino. So you need options that increase your chances.

Choose a trading style that suits you and look around at Forex Factory. There are great traders and free tips that are worth a lot. You may also like to read this article from the beginning, perhaps the Equlibrium is your trading style.

If you can not speak English, that is not a problem. There are many translation options on the Internet. English is an important world language. You are from Italy I am from Germany. The trader platforms there are far from Forex Factory.

I wish you that you achieve your goal and we are happy to help.


Best regards

POC lines for 2018 weekly


Dear Traders,

It's the beginning of 2018 and I once tried on a weekly basis to draw the most important Equilibrium POC.





An assessment of how the course could have been I had already posted. The annual candle drawn in yellow could move within the POC as follows.





This is purely speculative and not scientifically substantiated. PS: Chance can never be scientifically substantiated, at most the probability.
Surely it will be different, because no one knows how the course will behave at the POC. We should always investigate this in a shorter time in smaller time units. For me it was just an attempt to look into the distance. I'm looking forward to 2018, we'll see what happens.

I wish you a nice evening.

Thanks for these words, I'm looking for my style of trading, unfortunately the language barrier creates difficulties.
I have reread the whole post from the beginning.
Thank you.

NIO, three factors that make it difficult to trade!





If you want to travel by boat from England to America, you should already look at the route and the possible weather conditions. When you're on the road, usually everything is different and you have to adjust individually to the situation. Storms have to be avoided, routes are recalculated, problems are eliminated and in the end you arrive anyway. But never as planned.
It's the same with trading. Before I make a trade, I should know where the course is going, otherwise I should rather leave it. And when the trade runs I need a "what if plan".

We are influenced by NIO. News, indicators and opinions


News

Not the news, but market participants influence the market.
In 2016, Deutsche Bank and many currency experts estimated that the EURUSD would reach 0.95 at the end of 2017. It came completely different.

It is always fun in the evening at NTV (German news channel) to learn why the DAX or EURUSD has risen or fallen. Of course the economy is important in the individual countries, but not for me. For me, how investors respond to the news is far more important.

It does not matter which news is about the ticker. The market is moving because people and computers are pushing the button BUY or SELL. And why are they pressing on BUY or SELL? Because they have an opinion. And this opinion often has nothing to do with the economic data.
Why does Apple share fall even though Apple released a sensational quarterly balance sheet? Well, maybe because investors believe Apple will not be able to make such profits in the next quarter or peak the stock. Anyway, we'll never know.

News causes storms on the stock markets, it often goes up and down. I prefer to wait, because sailing is simply no fun in a strong storm.


Indicators

An indicator does not care if the price goes up or down. It is trailing and less accurate than the price chart. Many traders need security and believe the indicator tells them where the market is going. But the market influences the indicator and not the other way round. That's why I work with auxiliary indicators, which I do not pay much attention to. If I can not trust myself, how should I trust indicators?


Opinion

Since about 97% of all traders are wrong, this means that 97% of all opinions are wrong. That's not bad, because since humans exist, he's wrong. Much more important it would be to set the 3%, whose opinion is correct. But finding them is a challenge. One solution would be to look at what opinion the majority has and then do exactly the opposite. So we should not listen to the crowd, but to ourselves.

Trading is a pure chance game, nobody knows where the journey is going. But with mathematical probability calculation I can beat the coincidence in my favor.
The big challenge of trading is not to win, but to behave properly when you are in loss.


I wish you a nice weekend

Hello angifactor66,

Welcome to our blog. I am pleased if this blog helps you and I invite you to get to know the POC lines better together with us.

I wish you a nice weekend

Best regards

hey Bionics, how is going? at CPI news today I was expecting big price jump either way but market moved price slowly...that was surprise for me.

Do you use TPO-Range indicator to get "..POC lines for 2018 weekly..." or some other indicator. if so which one?

have a nice weekend.

[quote=Trader-Waldo;10666954]{quote} hey Bionics, how is going? at CPI news today I was expecting big price jump either way but market moved price slowly...that was surprise for me. Do you use TPO-Range indicator to get "..POC lines for 2018 weekly..." or some other indicator. if so which one? have a nice

Hello Trader Waldo, There were 160 Pip Bull Power in the EURUSD today, despite weak eurozone figures. I draw my POC lines by hand without an indicator. I'm looking for the best possible Equlibrium I then mark. I use the TPO Indicator only occasionally to see in which price range the market moves. Under no circumstances should you use the TPO indicator to determine the POC lines. That goes wrong. Have a nice weekend

Easy increase in trading efficiency!



Dear Traders,


As requested, you will receive a few tips today on the topic of financial management. I would like to neglect the chance risk ratio, stop loss or take profit. The background: Each trading style needs different values of these individual factors. There are traders who work with a stop loss of 5 PIP while others use 30 PIP or no stop loss. This risk limitation must be estimated by every trader. A scalper will often take a different chance risk ratio than a swing trader.
Today it will be about profit optimization in trading.

The calculation is relatively simple and only requires a few numbers. Let's take an example.







In the left box you see the overall result within a period. In the middle box the split result of the buy order in the right box the sell order.

The two most important values are the pay-off ratio and the expected value.



Pay-Off Ratio = (Average Profit) / (Average Loss)

There are traders who have a hit rate of less than 40% and yet earn a lot of money. The secret, they have optimized their pay-off ratio. It means making sure the winners are bigger than the losers. A pay-off ratio of 0.2 means that in case of loss you need 5 winners to get back to 0. A pay-off ratio of 1 means that in case of loss you need 1 winner to be back at 0. The smaller the pay-off ratio, the higher the likelihood of total loss.


Expected value (Expetancy) = winrate * (average earnings) - loss ratio * (average losers)

In our case Expected Value = (0.729 * 10.34 PIP) - (0.271 * 7.45 PIP) = 5.52 PIP per trade
The expected value determines my profitability.
As you can see, we now differentiate between Buy Order and Sell Order.
I've found that the efficiency of the sell order is almost twice as high as the efficiency of the buy order. That means when I go short, I have almost twice the efficiency of going to long. Of course, this is often dependent on the trend that currently prevails in the market.

Now, if you perform this calculation for all the currency pairs you trade, you will have the following information.

1. Which currency pair is best for me?
2. Am I a seller or a shorter?

Now you can focus on the currency pairs, indicia or commodities where you are really good.
If you now only focus on the short positions in our example, that would look like this.








In effect, you would have 200 PIP more income over the same period if you only trade short positions. And you have not changed your trading strategy yet. Of course, this result does not have to happen that way, but the probability is high.

Then it's all about optimizing the winrate, the pay-off ratio and the expected value to trade profitably.

Of course, there are very professional programs, I recommend: Think easy!!!

I wish you much success



Talk easy, but think complicated, not the other way around.

you pocking to me ?

Hello rosalieone,

Welcome to our block, of course you will get a Like for this indicator. He very well filters the main POC, in the medium term. Thank you very much. A short-term trader will not be spared the task of identifying and drawing individual POCs. I would be very happy if you continue to contribute to your POC experience.

I would be glad, if you can use some ideas from our block.

Let's hope that one day there will be no franc shock (EURCHF 1/15/15) in EURUSD

Best regards in the beautiful Switzerland

Learn to fly without autopilot!


Hello dear traders,

Thanks again for your contributions and assistance in finding the ultimate POC. I used the TPO indicator in the short term a few years ago. He also shows the POC lines, but you should be careful here and even look for the Equilibrium.

Here is a current example of today in EURUSD





Let's look at point 1. The indicator shows the POC line a bit too high. My sell limit would not have been triggered.

Point 2 was not displayed with the indicator.

Point 3 was a bit too high in the indicator, but would have triggered the sell limit order.

You look very nice that indicators are a help. As before, the price chart is the best help. Get help with the search for the POC from the Indicator, but intervene manually.

At the beginning I recommend to work exclusively with the price chart, if you can master that, you are welcome to resort to the help of indicators.

If you learn to fly an airplane, you will learn to do so without an autopilot, after which the autopilot will help you to take a few moves, but in extreme situations it is powerless.

Please keep in mind: The stock market is mostly extreme!

I wish you a successful week.

Best regards

Hello Night Fox,

if you have progressed, have written a nice article on efficient trading.

Best regards

The cop rises above the bear?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Hello dear traders,


As already written in some contributions at the beginning of January 2018, the year 2018 could become another bull year. Now the time has come and we are exactly in an important resistance line, which will decide on the future.






Should the monthly price break that strong resistance line, chances are good that we will see further upside potential. This could then apply for the next 5-6 years. How far the course develops, no one can predict.

Take a look at the POC on the smaller timeframes and form your own opinion.

Not the news, but the buyers and sellers are changing the market.

Good luck.

I can predict it. USD will get stronger. In the next 5-6 years to come. At it's peak it will get to 0.85 on EURUSD...

In March-May 2018, EU will start it's fall. I hope it is earlier, but it is unlikely...

Hello Money Zilla,

I would be absolutely right, because I prefer to trade down. We will see what the market has to do with us.

Have a nice Weekend