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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #1,721
  • Jan 16, 2018 12:10am Jan 16, 2018 12:10am
Quoting trogger
{quote} Well, I'm going to find out! Entered on 12 Jan. (added to existing long term longs) on the red arrow. Snapped this pic at the time i entered for anyone smart enough to be watching the LONGER TERM charts! (I wasn't really expecting any opportunity to post - So, Bistolis, well done and thank you for your post!) {image}


Seeing you've posted the GBP/NZD, do you think I'm on the right track with the EUR/NZD chart I posted a couple of pages back?
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post10667485 <- link, realized I forgot to post the weekly, apologies. Posting here for reference.
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  • #1,722
  • Jan 16, 2018 6:25am Jan 16, 2018 6:25am
M5

EURCAD

Not sure if the little people got me or not on this one. I had a second entry but it just didn't feel right so rule No 1 brought me to BE + costs.

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GBPJPY

This felt much better... and may have more left in it, however I need to do other things so closed at my 1st target.

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Also see below image to explain the funny mentals behind the recent GBP move to a hedge the plummeting prices of vital commodities in England..

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Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #1,723
  • Jan 16, 2018 8:04am Jan 16, 2018 8:04am
Dear Strat, dear all,

Thought it is just fair enough say hello, as I was lurking the last few weeks.
I did read almost 50% of the old threa and I hope that I am on the path now.
I re-started trading a few months ago, since I took a break of a few years (building house, family , kids and job was the main priority). I am not completely new to trading, as my first job was in a small bank at a prop desk. Unfortunately there was no mentor who would have been willed to help the young traders. But that’s another story (maybe for later)
When I found that thread I was pretty impressed about the fact that here are people who want to give back something to beginners. So that was also my trigger for that post as I want to say thank you and I will try to participate as good as possible.
I don’t want just take, but also give back someday. Maybe that sounds too idealistic.

Here er my first analysis for USDCAD:

BB: last 2 month weak , but rather sideways.
B (week): downtrend , sellers are in contro (see Strat shadow), 20 EMA below 63, restiance at 1,2916 was tested almost 5 times. Since then correction. So aim would be to take short position.
W (1 day): sellers are also in controll, price at 10.01. could break 20 ema and bounced at WCC.
Took short position after candle closed below support of 1,2444.

Sorry for my English, but it is not my mother tongue.
Comments are welcome

thanks a lot.
Malu

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  • #1,724
  • Jan 16, 2018 10:16am Jan 16, 2018 10:16am
USDCAD

Quoting Malu
Dear Strat, dear all, Thought it is just fair enough say hello, as I was lurking the last few weeks. I did read almost 50% of the old threa and I hope that I am on the path now. I re-started trading a few months ago, since I took a break of a few years (building house, family , kids and job was the main priority). I am not completely new to trading, as my first job was in a small bank at a prop desk. Unfortunately there was no mentor who would have been willed to help the young traders. But that’s another story (maybe for later) When I found...
Glad that you have found out that there is more to trading than PRICE just crossing a moving average!

You are on the right track - see Post # 1422
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,725
  • Jan 16, 2018 10:21am Jan 16, 2018 10:21am
M5

Quoting BeyondTheSea
M5 EURCAD Not sure if the little people got me or not on this one. I had a second entry but it just didn't feel right so rule No 1 brought me to BE + costs. {image} Also see below image to explain the funny mentals behind the recent GBP move to a hedge the plummeting prices of vital commodities in England.. {image}
EURCAD M5 - stay away from pairs like this which have long wicks and long tails - way too much indecision for M5 trend trading

I can get my Yorkshire Tea here but not the water and THAT is what makes a good cuppa!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,726
  • Jan 16, 2018 11:49am Jan 16, 2018 11:49am
EURUSD H4

Need to keep Wild Thing happy!

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,727
  • Jan 16, 2018 12:03pm Jan 16, 2018 12:03pm
Quoting strat
EURUSD H4 Need to keep Wild Thing happy! {image}
Yep, note to self. Must try harder on higher TF......
Private Msgs are turned off to weirdos, loafs and brain drainers
  • #1,728
  • Jan 16, 2018 12:43pm Jan 16, 2018 12:43pm
Quoting strat
USDCAD {quote} You are on the right track - see Post # 1422
Thanks for that. Good to know that I am not walking in the completely wrong direction.
  • #1,729
  • Jan 16, 2018 12:53pm Jan 16, 2018 12:53pm
GPB/USD M5 : possible entries in the last two hours
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  • #1,730
  • Jan 16, 2018 1:24pm Jan 16, 2018 1:24pm
NZDUSD

Quoting trogger
{quote} The BOSS ordered me to enter this two whole months ago today!
Thanks Wild Thing!

And these were the BOSS orders to the Worker.

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #1,731
  • Jan 16, 2018 1:33pm Jan 16, 2018 1:33pm
Do you have recent XAUUSD screen shots, please?
  • #1,732
  • Edited 3:17pm Jan 16, 2018 2:21pm | Edited 3:17pm
Not as crowded and beautiful looking as Trogger's charts, only 4 entries, the initial entry and 3 add-ons on UJ, M5, totaling 86 pips.
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  • #1,733
  • Jan 16, 2018 8:26pm Jan 16, 2018 8:26pm
Quoting trogger
{quote} Well, I'm going to find out! Entered on 12 Jan. (added to existing long term longs) on the red arrow. Snapped this pic at the time i entered for anyone smart enough to be watching the LONGER TERM charts! (I wasn't really expecting any opportunity to post - So, Bistolis, well done and thank you for your post!) {image}

Also added to this pair (AUD/NZD) at the same time (no.just checked. added on 10 and 11 of Jan - see red arrow):

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Have taken profit on 2 positions already and approaching target 3 (5 pips away as I type)

Now, I would hate to be trying to enter that based on 5 minute charts!
  • #1,734
  • Jan 16, 2018 8:37pm Jan 16, 2018 8:37pm
Quoting trogger
{quote} Also added to this pair (AUD/NZD) at the same time (no.just checked. added on 10 and 11 of Jan - see red arrow): {image} Have taken profit on 2 positions already and approaching target 3 (5 pips away as I type) Now, I would hate to be trying to enter that based on 5 minute charts!

Here is the 4 hour* showing entries (1.0870-1.0880). Position 3 closed in last couple of minutes at 1.0990. Approaching final target.

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* That's as low as I can go!
  • #1,735
  • Jan 16, 2018 9:01pm Jan 16, 2018 9:01pm
Quoting Rub
{quote} Seeing you've posted the GBP/NZD, do you think I'm on the right track with the EUR/NZD chart I posted a couple of pages back? https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post10667485 <- link, realized I forgot to post the weekly, apologies. Posting here for reference. {image}

Hello Rub

Disclaimer: I do not make trade recommendations nor endorse other's trade proposals.

With that in mind, I am happy to comment/put in my 2 cents.

I do follow Kiwi pairs closely and don't usually hesitate to take a trade when I see one especially on NZD/USD or AUD/NZD (to a lesser extent NZD/CAD and NZD/JPY.) For some reason, I rarely trade EUR/NZD - perhaps the uncertainty over Europe's stability fullstop (let alone the stability of the EURO as a currency).

So, if one were to BUY EUR/NZD at these levels, one would be banking on either:

1. The EURO going up
2. The KIWI going down
3. Both 1 & 2 simultaneously.

Looking at the BIG BOSS for EUR/USD sets off alarm bells for me:

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Sure, its in an upward trajectory and with some momentum. We could see higher Euro over the short term.

But. Present level is precisely at strong support from mid 2012 and, before that, mid 2010.

Sure, we MAY see price slice through like the proverbial "hot knife...." but I wouldn't buy this pair at this price with that chart AND knowing that the Roll (interest) is against me.
  • #1,736
  • Jan 16, 2018 10:17pm Jan 16, 2018 10:17pm
Quoting trogger
{quote} Hello Rub Disclaimer: I do not make trade recommendations nor endorse other's trade proposals. With that in mind, I am happy to comment/put in my 2 cents. I do follow Kiwi pairs closely and don't usually hesitate to take a trade when I see one especially on NZD/USD or AUD/NZD (to a lesser extent NZD/CAD and NZD/JPY.) For some reason, I rarely trade EUR/NZD - perhaps the uncertainty over Europe's stability fullstop (let alone the stability of the EURO as a currency). So, if one were to BUY EUR/NZD at these levels, one would be banking on...
Thank you for the expaination. I by no means take anything posted as a trade recommendation, I was interested as to why you took the GBP/NZD instead given what I saw on the EUR/NZD.
  • #1,737
  • Jan 17, 2018 2:19am Jan 17, 2018 2:19am
Good morning,

Just my thoughts on EURNZD.

BB: strong uptrend. But a BEEB has formed last month, that stopped at the trendline.
B: buyers are still in control. Last week we had a hammer (or pinball), that showed me that buyers came back stongly.
W: yesterday BUOB that broke both EMAs. My next target would be around 1,6980

Greetings, Malu

Worker:
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Boss:
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  • #1,738
  • Edited 4:31am Jan 17, 2018 4:20am | Edited 4:31am
Quoting Malu
Good morning, Just my thoughts on EURNZD. BB: strong uptrend. But a BEEB has formed last month, that stopped at the trendline. B: buyers are still in control. Last week we had a hammer (or pinball), that showed me that buyers came back stongly. W: yesterday BUOB that broke both EMAs. My next target would be around 1,6980 Greetings, Malu Worker: {image} Boss: {image}

Hello Malu

Great to see another poster giving a sensible TOP -DOWN analysis, starting with the higher time frames.

You may well be right about this going up - I have no crystal ball and no way of "knowing" whether it will or not.

However, if we just look at some of the numbers on your chart it should be apparent why one might want to exercise caution before entering:

If entry was made at the price shown on your chart 1.6876 (and adding, say 2 pips for spread = 1.6878 entry price) targeting your figure of 1,6980 and if you decided to place your stop as high as under yesterdays low (1.6766) then you immediately have less than 1:1 reward to risk ratio.

It is all about the time frame you are trading. I sometimes enter off 15 minute charts( - if I happen to be online at the right moment). BUT - I am NEVER trading a 15 min chart - I have better things to do with my life!
  • #1,739
  • Edited 5:18am Jan 17, 2018 5:04am | Edited 5:18am
Quoting trogger
{quote} Hello Malu Great to see another poster giving a sensible TOP -DOWN analysis, starting with the higher time frames. You may.....
...It is all about the time frame you are trading. I sometimes enter off 15 minute charts( - if I happen to be online at the right moment). BUT - I am NEVER trading a 15 min chart - I have better things to do with my life!

For example:

I have a trade, still active, on the GBP/USD. I entered multiple positions between 7 March and 10 March 2017. The entry was on vertical line/red arrow.

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When I entered, I would have worked all the way down from Monthly to at least the 4 hour chart looking for best entries. (It should be pretty obvious what I was entering against). Yes, I always "sacrifice" one position quickly on the "Little People's Forex Alter" and then let the rest run at various targets, sometimes getting in over and over again (sometimes accepting a boring run to profit target after profit target without retracement). As long as I make money, i don't lose any sleep over whether I should have had more on, should have held out for higher targets, should have exited earlier, should have...etc. Hey - I made the initial sacrifice (on the "Little People's Forex Alter" ) so that gives me the RIGHT to not over-analyse post-trade (or worse, mid-trade)!

Now, the most recent target was hit 2 days ago at 1.3790 and that leaves me with just one position with no set TP. Most traders don't want to sit in a trade for a year or more (but then again, most traders fail - there may be a message there!) Hey, entered at 1.22xx and exited at 1.3790 - 1500+pips over 10 months or 150 pips per month, every month, one trade!

I haven't looked at this trade for quite some time - in fact it was only when TP as hit 2 days ago that I even remembered I still had money on. Now I will come back to it from time to time and decide on the future of this trade. I do note on returning to this pair that I had (and still have) a level marked on it - quite some distance away.

Take a look:

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But, wait! There's more!

You need another screenshot to realise just how far that goes back in history!

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Now, I don't suggest that we are going to see that price anytime soon....but, hopefully, it may help you to see WHY I trade longer time frames.

Cheers all.
  • #1,740
  • Jan 17, 2018 5:19am Jan 17, 2018 5:19am
Quoting trogger
{quote} Hello Malu Great to see another poster giving a sensible TOP -DOWN analysis, starting with the higher time frames. You may well be right about this going up - I have no crystal ball and no way of "knowing" whether it will or not. However, if we just look at some of the numbers on your chart it should be apparent why one might want to exercise caution before entering: If entry was made at the price shown on your chart 1.6876 (and adding, say 2 pips for spread = 1.6878 entry price) targeting your figure of 1,6980 and if you decided to place...
Hi trogger,

thanks for your feedback. I trade daily timeframe (worker). Don‘t want to go on a lower timeframe yet. I see your point regarding RR and I totally agree on that one.
As I am new to that thread my intention was to post some of my charts, share my thoughts to get (although I am just at the beginning of the path) .
So thanks for your reply. That helps a lot to improve.
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