Dollar Bears Tighten Their Grip | Forex Factory

  • Dollar Bears Tighten Their Grip

    From marctomarket.com

    The consolidation/correction in the US dollar that we anticipated on technical grounds was brief and shallow. A series of developments seemed to play into the bear's hands. The developments from the shift in how China sets the reference rate, the wariness of some to expand its Treasury holdings, to less super-long bond buying by the BOJ and a more hawkish twist in the record of last month's ECB meeting all seemed to provide new grist to sell the greenback. The UK appears to have won over support from Spain and the Netherlands for softer terms for Brexit and this helps send sterling sharply ahead of the weekend after ... (full story)

Comment Options
NotAtrader
Jan 13, 2018 10:53am
Permalink
I remember the hype around forecast for EUR/USD falling down to 1.13 because of a H&S pattern observed in the charts. It just didn’t happen.

The same madness is being developed now around China, treasures and US dollar falling down like a rock pushing all other majors high.

Honestly, is this the first time people get fooled by the media and by the bid pockets?!

Didn’t I tell you before that the market makers are the chart makers too and that they can precisely draw on the charts any pattern you wish and put in a trap even the most experienced trading expert?

That being said, I think everybody should relax and trade what you see in small timeframes. Trying to forecast what will happen next month or 3 months later is just next to useless.

The current hype around US Dollar being dumped is just a temporary effect of the panic created by the Chinese financial institutions and will normalize pretty soon.

What matters in the end of the day is that the US economy is in good shape and better days are coming too. The global economy is also in good shape and there is no reason for creating earthquakes in the market. The only reason for doing so is to paint a wrong picture and make you setup wrong trading plan...

Patience is the key...
Panic is your enemy...

Chill out. Next week US dollar goes up.
Reply
NotAtrader
Jan 13, 2018 12:44pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting OnlineAddict
As for the euro...big boys need to cash out...and when they do...they might cash out big...I won't be buying euro when it starts.
It is clear that big time taking profit needs to happen sooner or later.
It remains to see when will this happen. I just read that 5.2k long positions was added to EUR, while 11.6k short was closed on Friday last week. This is scary.

Edit: I also read that 10.1k longs was closed on S&P 500, while 85.1k shorts have been added for the same asset. This confuses me a little, as the US dollar and S&P 500 usually move in broadly different directions. So why is the US dollar falling? I think this is the effect of the panic.
Let’s see.
Reply
OnlineAddict
Jan 13, 2018 12:16pm
Permalink
As for the euro...big boys need to cash out...and when they do...they might cash out big...I won't be buying euro when it starts.
Reply
OnlineAddict
Jan 13, 2018 2:13pm
Permalink
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} It is clear that big time taking profit needs to happen sooner or later. It remains to see when will this happen. I just read that 5.2k long positions was added to EUR, while 11.6k short was closed on Friday last week. This is scary. Edit: I also read that 10.1k longs was closed on S&P 500, while 85.1k shorts have been added for the same asset. This confuses me a little, as the US dollar and S&P 500 usually move in broadly different directions. So why is the US dollar falling? I think this is the effect of the panic. Let’s see.
It needs a bit more time, but once people sell "stocks", dollar will go up, obviously...as thats what they get for selling the stocks or indexes. Turns are always this scary, to fool people into the wrong direction.
Reply
NotAtrader
Jan 14, 2018 5:19am
Permalink
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} It needs a bit more time, but once people sell "stocks", dollar will go up, obviously...as thats what they get for selling the stocks or indexes. Turns are always this scary, to fool people into the wrong direction.
There is a possibility of positive sentiments for the US dollar ahead of NAFTA talks beginning next week. This may give a push to the dollar and reinstate the balance on the market. Right now the link between the charts seems broken and it needs a correction.
Reply
COGSx86
Jan 14, 2018 3:14pm
Permalink
Quoting bloodpoodle
us goverment must fund budget by jan 19th or shutdown China opening Oil futures trading jan 18th.. OIL priced in yuan, NOT USD. Petrodollar taking a hit.. As China starts doing more and more trade in Yuan over next 10-20 years, there will be less need for USD. And its dollar negitive. Even though trump tax cuts are great ... its not the whole picture.. USD will eventually be phased out as #1 global trade currency. But it won't happen overnight... It can't market haven't been created to handle it yet.. thats why its a slow process rather then a rapid...
Im curious where you have gotten the info about yuan priced crude happening this week?

Yes this will happen but not within the next week.

"No official launch date has been announced for the new contract, but traders and analysts in China say they expect trading in it to begin late this year or in early 2018."

But maybe Im wrong, this would be awesome for GOLD


Quoting xmart
Aye, market need a correction badly. No currency can go up like this.
Its happened before! anything is possible.
Reply
bloodpoodle
Jan 14, 2018 3:30am — Edited
Permalink
us goverment must fund budget by jan 19th or shutdown
China opening Oil futures trading jan 18th.. OIL priced in yuan, NOT USD.
Petrodollar taking a hit..
As China starts doing more and more trade in Yuan over next 10-20 years, there will be less need for USD.
And its dollar negitive.

Even though trump tax cuts are great ... its not the whole picture..

USD will eventually be phased out as #1 global trade currency. But it won't happen overnight... It can't market haven't been created to handle it yet.. thats why its a slow process rather then a rapid shift.

.. The Chinese government announced plans to start a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold. https://www.rt.com/business/413107-p...tures-trading/
Reply
althar
Jan 13, 2018 3:22pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} ... This confuses me a little, as the US dollar and S&P 500 usually move in broadly different directions. So why is the US dollar falling?...
We're not in the 'usual' situation any more, so we can forget about usual risk on/risk off rules for a while.

And 'a while' can take quite a long time, I'm afraid...
Reply
arash66110
Jan 13, 2018 1:02pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting notatrader
{quote} it is clear that big time taking profit needs to happen sooner or later. It remains to see when will this happen. I just read that 5.2k long positions was added to eur, while 11.6k short was closed on friday last week. This is scary. Edit: I also read that 10.1k longs was closed on s&p 500, while 85.1k shorts have been added for the same asset. This confuses me a little, as the us dollar and s&p 500 usually move in broadly different directions. So why is the us dollar falling? I think this is the effect of the panic. Let’s see.
17k increased, it is record high
145K vs 128K
LAST WEEK 36K increased, AND THIS WEEK ANOTHER 17K
Reply
raklian
Jan 13, 2018 6:21pm
Permalink
It's the tax cut, stupid.
Reply
xmart
Jan 14, 2018 7:06am
Permalink
Aye, market need a correction badly. No currency can go up like this.
Reply
  • Story Stats