Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

On the same topic of Market Crash.

Feedback please !!!


Benjaminis

BITCOIN

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...itcoin-fortune


Benjaminis

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...us-dollar-2018

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...mbarrassed-ask

https://yragharris.com/2018/01/02/radar/

Good Morning


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ess-attractive

The KEY now is the Bonds and associated matters involving the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds.

Please send me an invitation on Linkedin and we will talk next week. Have a Happy New Year 2018.


Benjaminis

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eturn-for-2018


Benjaminis

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...hen-tips-are-1

When the 10Y rose above 2.50% yesterday (and spiked another 10 bps today on the China TSY buying news), various pundits emerged, calling for an end to the secular bull market in rates, starting with Bill Gross ,who said that the "bond market was confirmed today", followed by Jeff Gundlach who said that while Gross is early, it will only take 2.99% on the 30Y to break the trendline.
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...0Y%20Gross.jpg
Then, this morning it was the turn of Mint Partners' Bill Blain to declare the onset of normalization and that "this was the moment we've all been waiting for." And the WSJ even trotted out a staple headline we have seen every year since 2010: "Investors Prepare for Inflation as Bond Yields Rise."

Maybe, but it is just as likely that this is the old headfake which we see every single year when there is a brief inflation scare which is then promptly swept under the relentless deflationary (almost entirely from a wage standpoint) tide.

To be sure, not everyone is buying the "bond bear market" thesis.

In a note released this morning, SocGen's FX strategist Kit Juickes observes that "the (bond) bears are calling for a picnic" but he is skeptical that this is the time, and here's why: "I'll believe the bond market has turned when 10year TIPS yields have broken 1% (and nominal yields have broken 3%). That's where yields ran out of steam in the 2013 Taper Tantrum, as the sell-off in asset markets (notably in EM), prompted the Fed to soften its tapering stance and change its forward-guidance."

What followed then was the demise of term premium in bond yields and much lower estimates of equilibrium real interest rates.
And yet, not even Juckes is willing to stand in the way of rising yields:

"I don't think there's enough inflation, or indeed enough growth, for the Fed to risk a proper market tantrum, so I fully expect them to stand in the way of a meaningful move higher in yields, but the big question for 2018 is, without a doubt, whether there's anything central bankers can do to prevent markets reacting to balance sheet normalisation (other than just not do it)."

Should Gundlach be correct, and 10Y yields explode higher once 2.63% is breached, we may find out in the immediate future.

Meanwhile, keep in mind that Juckes was the strategist who correctly pointed out last September that it was China's intervention in the FX market on September 8 when it scrapped reserve requirements and allowed a surge in the USDCNY (and dollar in general), sending 10Y yield higher. We summarized his take as follows:
To summarize, if Chinese reserve accumulation drove yields and the dollar down, supporting higher-yielding currencies in general, then the previously discussed dramatic reversal by the PBOC on September 8 marked the turning point. Or as Juckes puts it, "policy was changed, signalling the end of Yuan appreciation, the end of the rally for Treasuries, high-yield currencies and the euro. When USD/CNY stops rising, buy EMFX and EUR/USD again?"

And while we agree with Juckes that bear market calls are premature, we are far more interested what he will have to say about today's news of the day which is clearly China's explicit warning to Trump to stop threatening wage war, or suffer the loss of the biggest foreign buyer of US Treasurys, the mere hint of which sent 10Y yields to the highest since March.

Here is Juckes' entire note:
The (bond) bears are calling for a picnic

Bill Gross has declared a bear market in bond-land and Jeffrey Gundlach has proclaimed the start of an ‘era of quantitative tightening'. Yesterday I pointed out that the turn higher in USD/CNY last September was accompanied by a sharp rise in Treasury yields, but the collective wisdom is that this bond sell-off is made in Japan rather than China. More prosaically, it's down to optimism about US growth, concern about inflation ahead of Friday's CPI data, lack of demand ahead of this evening's auction of $20bn in 10year Notes; and (last but definitely not least) concern that global central bond-buying is about to go into reverse. ‘Fed balance-sheet reduction tantrum' isn't nearly as snappy as ‘taper tantrum' but still....

I'll believe the bond market has turned when 10year TIPS yields have broken 1% (and nominal yields have broken 3%). That's where yields ran out of steam in the 2013 Taper Tantrum, as the sell-off in asset markets (notably in EM), prompted the Fed to soften its tapering stance and change its forward-guidance. What followed were the demise of term premium in bond yields and much lower estimates of equilibrium real interest rates. I don't think there's enough inflation, or indeed enough growth, for the Fed to risk a proper market tantrum, so I fully expect them to stand in the way of a meaningful move higher in yields, but the big question for 2018 is, without a doubt, whether there's anything central bankers can do to prevent markets reacting to balance sheet normalisation (other than just not do it).

Intriguingly, this jump in US yields isn't doing anything to help the dollar yet. As well as JPY, AUD, NZD and CAD may have more to gain from policy normalisation. I'll work on that for tomorrow's FX Weekly. The divergence between relative real yields and USD/JPY is striking and a taste of what will happen when the BOJ starts normalising ($/Y <100). We'll probably see 111 before relative real yields re-assert their authority. GBP faces a challenge from manufacturing and trade data today and Bullard and Evans are today's scheduled Fed speakers.


Benjaminis

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...rything-bubble

Did China Just Burst the Everything Bubble?
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...?itok=wSLwCLSD
by Phoenix Capita…
Wed, 01/10/2018 - 12:32




The biggest news today comes from China, which has announced it will “slow or halt" US Treasury purchases.
This is the so-called NUCLEAR option: the threat by China to stop buying US debt. And it’s an absolute game-changer.
Yields on the 10-Year Treasury spiked on the news as investors dumped Treasuries.


Source: Blooomberg

This could very well be what bursts the EVERYTHING Bubble.

As I explained in detail in by bestselling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the Fed dealt with the 2008 meltdown by intentionally created a bubble in US Treasuries.

This was a continuation of the Fed's policy every since the US reached the point of debt saturation in the late '90s. From this point onwards, the Fed's #1 priority was maintaining the debt bubble and avoiding debt deflation


This has resulted in the Fed intentionally creating asset bubbles to deal with each crisis.

In the late '90s we had a bubble in Tech stocks, called the Tech bubble.

When this bubble burst, the Fed intentionally created another bubble in housing/real estate.

This represented a move up the asset class "food chain." Real estate is a far less liquid, far more senior/systemic asset class for the US financial system.
That Housing Bubble burst in 2008. And so the Fed intentionally created yet another asset bubble, this time in US Treasuries (via ZIRP and QE).

And because these bonds represent the “risk-free” rate of return for the US financial system, when the Fed did this, it created a bubble in EVERYTHING (including stocks).

And now that China is threatening to dump US Treasuries, this could be what bursts the Everything Bubble.
The time to prepare for this is NOW before disaster hits.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:
https://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/TEB.html

Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ops+to+zero%29

Happy new year mate!

Happy New Year

This topic is about GEOPOLITICAL and should be read very carefully with an open mind.

Feedback from anyone reading this is welcome. Which group do you fit into ?

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2...a/#more-167752

Hi MenjaminIs,
Why does this influence geopolitical?
Thx

PLEASE READ AND ASK QUESTIONS IF YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND SOMETHING IN THIS ARTICLE !!! THANK YOU !!!

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/...de_link_113648


Benjaminis

What's the point to ask you questions when you don't answer.
Btw do you read these articles or you just post them here? What's the point of this article which is about income inequality? How can it help in our trading decisions, fundamental analysis, or geopolitical picture?
You never answered my question what's the point of your thread. Is it some news service?

You cannot learn how to trade by posting here once in awhile. All the questions that you have has been answered and if not post them again. Read what has been posted here. You need to follow instructions and listen if you expect to learn. So far between your holidays and other excuses we have gone in circles. I am trying hard to help you however we need to exchange thoughts each day. I await your reply.

Here are three questions for you !!!

What are our top three trade plans

How do we determine Risk On or Risk Off each day

What is our maximum loss per each Forex Trade

Call this home work

The answers have been posted many times.


Benjaminis