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  • #241
  • Jan 10, 2018 6:44am Jan 10, 2018 6:44am
Quoting parisboy
a lot of good questions asked by Mastermind then a lot of research and of work ! one key factor to progress is to use post mortem analysis of trades where I have failed, why , what should I have done ?
The data has a lot to say but as in anything to do with success in trading the market it cannot tell you everything.

The plan should be to make small positive improvements in the strike rate so instead of getting 2/9 for a 1% gain, you get 3/9 for a 6% gain.

Small difference in winning trade count but massive in terms of gain in Equity.

ps. its not really alot of research, its simply looking for the patterns of failure in the losing trades (yes there could be a heap to look at) and weeding out the common losing factor, if it is an obvious one.

Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #242
  • Jan 10, 2018 7:07am Jan 10, 2018 7:07am
Final 3 trades (1 open + 2 pending) will be left over-night.
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Time for rest I'm afraid.

Back at it again tomorrow!

Good trading,

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #243
  • Jan 10, 2018 6:34pm Jan 10, 2018 6:34pm
AUDNZD

Loss trade

-1.0%
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Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #244
  • Jan 10, 2018 6:40pm Jan 10, 2018 6:40pm
2 open trades still running long AJ and long EU.
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I plan to let them run their course.

So far this setup has produced 7 losses in a row.

How will the final 2 trades turn out?

Time will tell.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #245
  • Jan 11, 2018 4:16pm Jan 11, 2018 4:16pm
EURUSD

Winning trade

+3.8%
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Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #246
  • Jan 11, 2018 6:38pm Jan 11, 2018 6:38pm
Only the AJ long trade remains active at this stage.
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Its currently floating around near BE.

Being Friday I may look to lock at BE as soon as the trade gives me the chance without strangling its progress.
So a movement up above the next higher octave may give me the opportunity to lock in at BE.

Basically, I'll see how price moves up till London and look to squeeze what I can out of the trade in the time I have since it will be closed out today.

Note: At this stage its looking very much like the next TS Scenario will be traded from next Monday (unless the AJ trade is closed out very soon).

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #247
  • Jan 12, 2018 7:25am Jan 12, 2018 7:25am
AUDJPY

Loss trade

-1.0%
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Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #248
  • Jan 12, 2018 7:27am Jan 12, 2018 7:27am
Im seeing you have balanced pips but not profit even you are using different lot sizes for compensate pairs values. Its strange this effect...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #249
  • Jan 12, 2018 7:36am Jan 12, 2018 7:36am
3 Scenarios have now been traded.
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Next scenario to be traded will be:

Scenario 3
TS 1 = AUDNZD + AUDJPY = NZDJPY
TS 2 = EURUSD + GBPUSD = EURGBP
TS 3 = AUDCAD + GBPCAD = GBPAUD

This will be traded next Monday !

Masterrmind.........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #250
  • Jan 12, 2018 7:57am Jan 12, 2018 7:57am
myfxbook analytics (after 3 completed TS Order 3 Scenarios)
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TE (Return by Trade)
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Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #251
  • Jan 12, 2018 8:21am Jan 12, 2018 8:21am
Quoting braintheboss
Im seeing you have balanced pips but not profit even you are using different lot sizes for compensate pairs values. Its strange this effect...
Could you expand a little on what you mean please?
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Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #252
  • Jan 12, 2018 8:38am Jan 12, 2018 8:38am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Could you expand a little on what you mean please? {image} Masterrmind............
I didnt check report. I did fast check to main TE...
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Try don't lose pants never...
  • #253
  • Jan 12, 2018 9:13am Jan 12, 2018 9:13am
Quoting Masterrmind
3 Scenarios have now been traded. {image} Next scenario to be traded will be: Scenario 3 TS 1 = AUDNZD + AUDJPY = NZDJPY TS 2 = EURUSD + GBPUSD = EURGBP TS 3 = AUDCAD + GBPCAD = GBPAUD This will be traded next Monday ! Masterrmind.........
Strike rate after 3 scenarios is 28% (won 7 out of 25 trades) but be careful drawing any firm conclusions since only 5 hit full TP.

5 out of 25 is 20% but we also have a few smaller winners that add to the overall gain.

Recall the theoretical win rate for a 4 to 1 R:r is 20%.
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Also consider the practical aspect when 9 trades are entered ... its not possible to achieve exactly 20% rather its 2/9 being 22.2%.

1 winner from 9 trades is 11.1% ... not good enough! ... = -4%
2 winners from 9 trades is 22.2% ... better than 20% (BE) so we are in the money! ... = +1%
3 winners from 9 trades is 33.3% ... even better! ... = +6%
... and so on

The relationship between winners and losers is key (as always and not forgetting about strict MM).
Minimizing losses is important to an extent but its not super critical although it has a significant impact on gain in Equity!
Having a minimum number of winners from a given number of trades is critical.

Is it possible to improve to 3/9 (33.3% strike rate) or 4/9 (44.4% strike rate) or 5/9 (55.5% strike rate) ?

Based on the results so far one might argue that it looks unlikely ... but is it ??

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #254
  • Jan 12, 2018 9:33am Jan 12, 2018 9:33am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} I didnt check report. I did fast check to main TE... {image}
Ok ... no worries at all.

Its not the prettiest Equity curve but thats not the point here!

Ability to survive numerous losing sequences and look for small ways to improve the strike rate.

Small increase in the strike rate provides huge increase in Equity Gain and thats what we seek.

In time little pieces of the puzzle will find their way onto this thread (if participation continues).

Keep a look out for the small changes I make to the way the next 3 scenarios will be traded.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #255
  • Jan 13, 2018 12:10am Jan 13, 2018 12:10am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Ok ... no worries at all. Its not the prettiest Equity curve but thats not the point here! Ability to survive numerous losing sequences and look for small ways to improve the strike rate. Small increase in the strike rate provides huge increase in Equity Gain and thats what we seek. In time little pieces of the puzzle will find their way onto this thread (if participation continues). Keep a look out for the small changes I make to the way the next 3 scenarios will be traded. Masterrmind.............
TS Order 1 trades opened in Friday trading (D1 64, TP = 1 Octave, SL = 0.25 Octave. A+B=C, with A and B at Octave and C hedge does not need to be near Octave). Opening balance $1540. 10% up after closing all open trades End of US session. TS order 3 a bit brain numbing but look forward to participating and testing. Challenge is how many of the 9 trades need to be near Octave as per MMM.
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If you don't stand for something you will fall for nothing
  • #256
  • Jan 13, 2018 10:04pm Jan 13, 2018 10:04pm
Quoting woze
{quote} TS Order 1 trades opened in Friday trading (D1 64, TP = 1 Octave, SL = 0.25 Octave. A+B=C, with A and B at Octave and C hedge does not need to be near Octave). Opening balance $1540. 10% up after closing all open trades End of US session. TS order 3 a bit brain numbing but look forward to participating and testing. Challenge is how many of the 9 trades need to be near Octave as per MMM. {image} {image} {image}
Hi Woze,

Thanks for posting your results and a very nice gain for the day.

This thread has only outlined M15 TF so far with higher TF setups to follow in the future so you are jumping ahead a bit.

A few comments if I may:

1. Why close out so soon when using a D1 setup ? (end of week?, happy with %gain?, applying mini-octaves?, other reason ?)

2. Why such a huge difference in the applied lot size of the 3rd pair as shown in the screenshot ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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3. It appears you traded 27 pairs (similar to a TS Order 9 but perhaps entered as individual TS's)

4. When did you enter the TS's ? (mid-late London or in the NY session or mixed) ?

5. If you could post a chart of your completed trades that would be great (I don't expect all trades to be posted though, a little overkill perhaps)

The Plan for the MTTTM Strategy

1. Start off with trading demo examples of 8 scenarios of M15 TF TS Order 3 setups on an 'almost random' type approach;
[transparent trading approach before the fact, discuss trades, discuss ways to improve strike rate]

2. Trade (on demo) a specially designed TS Order 3 on the M15 TF with several traded setups;
[transparent trading approach before the fact, discuss trades, discuss ways to improve strike rate]

3. Trade (on demo) higher time frame TS Order 3's (and higher TS Order examples)
[transparent trading approach before the fact, discuss trades, discuss ways to improve strike rate]

4. Trade carefully designed TS Order 3's (and others) on a LIVE account.
[transparent trading approach before the fact, discuss trades (before, during and after), discuss techniques that attempt to improve the strike rate]

Traders are then free to choose which TF suits them and either continue to trade on a demo account (which I hate doing) or go live!

The more traders that participate the better the journey.

ps. I reserve the right to start trading MTTTM live at any time!

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #257
  • Jan 13, 2018 11:17pm Jan 13, 2018 11:17pm
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Hi Woze, Thanks for posting your results and a very nice gain for the day. This thread has only outlined M15 TF so far with higher TF setups to follow in the future so you are jumping ahead a bit. A few comments if I may: 1. Why close out so soon when using a D1 setup ? (end of week?, happy with %gain?, applying mini-octaves?, other reason ?) 2. Why such a huge difference in the applied lot size of the 3rd pair as shown in the screenshot ? {image} 3. It appears you traded 27 pairs (similar to a TS Order 9 but perhaps entered as individual...
1. End of week & applying mini-octaves. Used chart with fib levels such that P=64 and MMP=1440, these are long term stronger S/R zone, higher prob to reverse. Traded when price is at 7/8, 6/8, 8/8, +1/8. Then used M15 currency strength for A and B (A+B =C) with C being hedge

2. Miscal error on my part, noted

3. Multiple random TS order 1, to test strike rate vs probability, hence the response to your specific comment in strike rates

4. Mid Asia through to London close, when there is no nearby news

5. Sure, when I get to PC

P.S. traded demo
If you don't stand for something you will fall for nothing
  • #258
  • Jan 14, 2018 12:00am Jan 14, 2018 12:00am
Return by Trade in each of the 3 by TS Order 3 setups
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A great place to improve from since strike rate has been reducing after each successive TS Order.

Only place worse than current strike rate is 9/9 losers and we do not want this statistic do we ?

Consider the details of the 25 completed trades in the 3 TS Orders such as:

1. Trade opening time into the market (relationship to the main session open times)
2. Was the stop too small ? (Would a larger stop have made any major difference)
3. If a specific MML level had of been chose for the entry point of each trade how might this have affected the outcome ?
4. What do you identify as being the main factor(s) for the losing trades ?
5. Other key considerations regarding improvements to the strike rate of a given TS Order 3.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #259
  • Jan 14, 2018 1:10am Jan 14, 2018 1:10am
Quoting woze
{quote} 1. End of week & applying mini-octaves. Used chart with fib levels such that P=64 and MMP=1440, these are long term stronger S/R zone, higher prob to reverse. Traded when price is at 7/8, 6/8, 8/8, +1/8. Then used M15 currency strength for A and B (A+B =C) with C being hedge 2. Miscal error on my part, noted 3. Multiple random TS order 1, to test strike rate vs probability, hence the response to your specific comment in strike rates 4. Mid Asia through to London close, when there is no nearby news 5. Sure, when I get to PC P.S. traded demo...
Thanks for the clarification.

You also might like to make use of the Lot_Size-MTTTM indicator (if you are not already) to ensure all lots per pair are correct.

The impact of closing trades out earlier than a full stop or full TP is a reduction in the expectancy of the strategy.

However, trading must include a number of exceptions, one being a closure by the end of Friday to offset weekend gapping risk.

The use of 'stronger' HTF support and resistance levels is a good approach and can be used as a form of confluence in M15 or generally lower time frame setups.

A trader could therefore seek out setups from pairs that align and provide confluence between HTF S+R and MML levels.

I will expand on this topic in the upcoming posts.

Good trading,

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #260
  • Jan 15, 2018 4:09am Jan 15, 2018 4:09am
4th scenario to be traded is as follows:

TS Order 3-S3
TS 1 = AUDNZD + AUDJPY = NZDJPY
TS 2 = EURUSD + GBPUSD = EURGBP
TS 3 = AUDCAD + GBPCAD = GBPAUD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Several pending orders due in part to price proximity to the extreme MMLs

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
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