Trading the US Durable's and New Home Sales

The EURO has really weakened against the $ recently. It'll be interesting to see how the positioning goes prior to the Durable's and New Home Sales reports.

Both reports are predicted to show big improvements from their previous readings, i.e. be $+. What you may be seeing here is what happened with NZD prior to the Trade Bal report-traders buying the rumor. It's already sitting at about 2685 now, so a lot of the rumor has already been bought. If it goes into the mid to low 26's later today or in the Asian and London sessions...it will only serve to confirm this.

The best scenarios to make some pips off these reports are as follows:

1. If the EUR returns to the low to mid 27's (or even higher) and the reports do come out off consensus and even more $+, they'll be more room for a nice down spike in the EUR.

2. If the rumor has been bought prior to the trade, (Eur remaining in the upper to mid 26's) and the reports come out off consensus and $-. a nice big gain in the EUR may be seen at that point.

History shows that Durable Goods retraces several minutes after release. This implies that it is a minor news that quickly fade away.

I'd look at Durable Goods as a "confirmation" indicator whether US economy is crashing hard or landing softly.

If the number points to a soft landing (ie, another "its not that bad"), its a USD rally.

Personally, I am already waiting with a Sell Limit GBPUSD at 1.8950.

Thanks for the charts BK-they're very useful. Would it be possible to have charts with a longer time period, say back to the London open that morning? I want to see how much if any of the report was already bought or sold off prior to the the numbers being released. Or, do you have a source to get the charts from? Thanks

NewstraderFX

I use FXCM to get those charts. Their charts on demo accounts are just as accurate as their "live accounts".

@Darkstar,


I am not "shilling" FXCM to anyone. The last post clearly answered the question asked by NewstraderFX: " Or, do you have a source to get the charts from?".

My answer was direct.

What must I have answered?

"Hey newstraderfx, I got it from a broker... which broker? thats for me to know and for you to find out...." <--- how snubbish huh?

Anyways, seems like someone dont like FXCM so much, perhaps I should use a different broker for those historic charts....

For your information here is the info from Reuters:

DGO poll in line with Bloomberg for +0.5%.

Expectations for the more important ex transport number is also +0.5%, though the latter number had less respondents polled.

The range for this very hard to predict number is from around -1.5% to + +1.5% (exluding two crazy outliers at each end). It looks like there is a big cluster of forecasts for around the +1.0%.

For the core number, the range is around the same with most forecasting between 0.4 and 0.8%. Anything outside this range will likely be eventful.

---

PS - I havent' seen any shilling from BurgerKing - he was just answering a question.

What is the more important number?

Durable Goods
or Core (excluding transportation?)

If im not mistaken, two months ago, the Core weight heavier on account that on that month, Boeing made a huge contract diluting the whole Durable Goods figure and the Core was wildly watched

That big move is explained by:


Ex-Transportation -2.0

Darn...

I missed the up move... Oh well, i shorted when it peaked! =)

25 pips!

BTW. if you looked at historic Durable goods charts, it has never failed to retrace. Secondly, USD is very "hey its not that bad" sentiment again.

WASHINGTON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - New orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell unexpectedly in August and orders excluding transportation or defense goods also declined surprisingly, a government report showed on Wednesday.

It was the second monthly decline in a row and the first time since April-May 2004 that orders for these items meant to last three years or longer slipped in consecutive months. July's drop was revised to a steeper 2 .7 percent.

Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a 0.5 percent gain in durable goods orders for the month.

Excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell 2 percent on a big drop in civilian aircraft orders. Analysts were expecting a 0.5 percent rise in this category.

However, overall transportation orders rose 3.7 percent on a jump in car and parts orders.

When defense orders were stripped out, orders fell 0.8 percent. Analysts were expecting a 0.9 percent rise.

A proxy for business spending also posted a surprising drop, as capital goods orders excluding aircraft slipped 0.3 percent. Analysts were expecting a 0.5 percent gain in that category.

DAMN BK!!! you are no joke on these fades!!!

was gonna trade it, when news came at 8:30 IBFX freeze and i didnt see the move then at 8:31 the candle apear and my order didn't executed !

Nice! I did the same (only get 11 pips though)

Good trade BK. I faded as well. The initial break based on the core number made it worthwhile. It fitted in well with my USD +ive view as well, so happy days.

damn that was a shit ass report for the dollar. first the philly fed comes in WAY below expectations, now THIS!

if the dollar can strengthens over the next few days in the face of these bad reports, thats a pretty bullish sign...

Nice trade BK!!

Entered long before the news at 1.2686. Quick spike up, before it went back down, sold at 1.2708. +22 pips Happy Day.

Yup. This is a good news to trade retrace. The resistance of GBP/USD is 1.8930 so I short it just after the first spike and get 30 pips. Not bad to start the day !!!

Nice job BK! I see you improved greatly these last weeks! Keep it up!

I got 14 pip. I hope everyone else did good as well!

Today was a good day to say the least. Straddled the US durable good. made 5 pips trading the news. And 11 pips for the "fade." Which is better than the debockle that happened on monday night.

+5 pips= Straddle

+11 pips= Fade

I could have kept all of the position for a little longer, but i didnt see the numbers clearly on trade the news. I got confused that AUG stood for), so i blew that off and tried to refresh forexfactory, hehe. I look at FF and TTN, it was -.5%, i feel like a turd for getting that wrong. Which i could have kept the position for a few more secs to make more than 5 pips. Oww well, still learning.

Good day. One more trade today at 10. New Home sales coming out, cant wait to trade this!