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Trap the Market

  • #481
  • Jan 1, 2018 3:45pm Jan 1, 2018 3:45pm
Here's a top-down technical perspective on the EURUSD.

On the daily time frame, it is clear that price action has breached the resistance trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the weekly time frame. Basically, the trendline has flipped to a support trendline and the technicals on the daily time frame are in support of bulls. It is tempting to conceive of the consummation of a ‘Head-and-Shoulders’ pattern on the daily time frame with the close of the daily candlestick on Friday. The apparent neckline is indicated by a red-coloured trendline and the technical projection is likely to give a target around the 1.23340 area. It should be interesting to see what happens in the next few days.

On the H4 time frame, price action has witnessed a 32.8 Fib retracement of the upward swing from the low of April 20, 2017 to the high of September 8, 2017. An outer support trendline (magenta colour) is still in play even though price action has moved further upward from it to respect an inner support trendline (chocolate colour); which is an indication of increased northward momentum. Price action is likely to move northward to around the 1.20895 area before any pullback.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_31st_Dec.,_2017_001.png Size: 46 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_31st_Dec.,_2017.png Size: 54 KB
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  • #482
  • Jan 1, 2018 4:05pm Jan 1, 2018 4:05pm
I am bullish on this pair. However, I will wait for a retest of the inner support trendline (chocolate colour) on the H4 time frame before looking for a buy trading opportunity. Should price action breach this trendline southward, I will wait for a retest of the outer support trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame before looking for a buy opportunity. But a breach of this outer support trendline would negate my bullish bias.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Here's a top-down technical perspective on the EURUSD. On the daily time frame, it is clear that price action has breached the resistance trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the weekly time frame. Basically, the trendline has flipped to a support trendline and the technicals on the daily time frame are in support of bulls. It is tempting to conceive of the consummation of a ‘Head-and-Shoulders’ pattern on the daily time frame with the close of the daily candlestick on Friday. The apparent neckline is indicated by a red-coloured trendline and the...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #483
  • Jan 2, 2018 7:28am Jan 2, 2018 7:28am
I am tracking both the EURUSD and the EURJPY. Technically, both are bullish, but the EURUSD is more so than the EURJPY.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
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  • #484
  • Edited 10:03am Jan 2, 2018 9:31am | Edited 10:03am
Technically, XAUUSD is consolidating; price action is operating in a triangle on the W1 tf. As current price action is very close to the tip of the triangle and the triangle resistance, even though northward, we may see a stalling of momentum.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
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  • #485
  • Jan 2, 2018 11:47am Jan 2, 2018 11:47am
Thank you for your thread. I trade with D1. In do not go below to D1. Not even H4. And I wait for entry. Sometimes the wait is more than one week. I only open trade if I see there's good space to move the market. I set the TP and SL and don't observe the market very often.
  • #486
  • Jan 2, 2018 12:20pm Jan 2, 2018 12:20pm
Welcome to FF and thank you for visiting my thread. I am a swing trader and I trade only a few times in a week when I see markets that meet my trading criteria.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting James007
Thank you for your thread. I trade with D1. In do not go below to D1. Not even H4. And I wait for entry. Sometimes the wait is more than one week. I only open trade if I see there's good space to move the market. I set the TP and SL and don't observe the market very often.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #487
  • Jan 6, 2018 3:14pm Jan 6, 2018 3:14pm
I am in the midst of my weekly market analysis during which I screen and analyse the pairs on my watch list to pick a few that have potential for successful trading next week based on my system. From my current analysis, the strongest currency among the majors on my watch list is NZD while JPY is the weakest.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #488
  • Jan 7, 2018 1:50pm Jan 7, 2018 1:50pm
If you are tracking the USDCAD this week, consider this top-down technical analysis. USDCAD continued its southward disposition last week. This represents a follow-through of the breakout two weeks ago from the consolidation that held for over eight weeks earlier. On the daily time frame, price action gave a good-bye kiss to a support trendline (navy colour) and turned it to resistance on December 19, 2017. Since then, the order flow has been in favour of bears and the technicals on the daily time frame are synced for further southward move.

On the H4 time frame, price action is on a northward retracement. A much likely turnaround area of the retracement is the immediate minor resistance around the 1.24680 area (highlighted with magenta coloured line); this area is in confluence with the 50.0 Fib retracement zone of the most recent swing down. But this retracement may extend to the 61.8 Fib zone, around the 1.25080 area, before a southward turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #489
  • Jan 7, 2018 2:29pm Jan 7, 2018 2:29pm
I am bullish on the NZDJPY. Here's my technical perspective on the pair.

On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a corrective descending flag (bound by chocolate coloured lines) formed since late 2017. Five price waves have been formed within the flag; the fifth is at the resistance line of the flag. Price action is respecting a support trendline (navy coloured) from the low of December 7, 2017. As price action has reached the flag resistance, we may see a sideways operation or retracement southward to retest the support trendline before any further northward move as the major direction is northward. A bullish continuation is likely to see bulls target the major horizontal resistance around the 82.933 area although they have to tackle a few minor barriers along the way.

On the H4 time frame, price action has moved further northward from the support trendline (navy coloured) seen on the daily time frame to respect an inner support trendline (magenta coloured). These two trendlines may form a significant support zone for any southward retracement of price action. The 84.240 area is a horizontal support zone that may provide a confluence and could interest bears as a target of a southward retracement before a northward tutrnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and Prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #490
  • Jan 7, 2018 3:45pm Jan 7, 2018 3:45pm
I am bearish on this pair. A good area to enter a sell trade would be the 50/61.8 Fib zone, around the 1.24680/1.25080 area; provided a feasible set-up is seen there on the H4 time frame. For me, a buy trade is not in the offing from the standpoint of a swing trader.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
If you are tracking the USDCAD this week, consider this top-down technical analysis. USDCAD continued its southward disposition last week. This represents a follow-through of the breakout two weeks ago from the consolidation that held for over eight weeks earlier. On the daily time frame, price action gave a good-bye kiss to a support trendline (navy colour) and turned it to resistance on December 19, 2017. Since then, the order flow has been in favour of bears and the technicals on the daily time frame are synced for further southward move. On...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #491
  • Jan 10, 2018 4:30am Jan 10, 2018 4:30am
If you are tracking GBPUSD, price action is likely to go southward after the current pullback northward. Price action is struggling around a significant S/R zone which is in confluence with the 32.8 Fib retracement zone of the swing down from the high of June 2015.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #492
  • Jan 11, 2018 10:44am Jan 11, 2018 10:44am
Just Sharing

‘Don’t worry about what the markets are going to do, worry about what you are going to do in response to the markets.’ - Michael Carr


Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #493
  • Jan 14, 2018 3:16pm Jan 14, 2018 3:16pm
I will look to trading EURNZD southward this week. Here's why.

On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of February 2017. This trendline formed an ascending channel with the highs of recent candlesticks. Last week, a pinbar-like bullish candlestick was formed and tested the channel support. Should bulls follow through on this pinbar, the horizontal resistance around the 1.69350 area is likely to be an initial target and it is within reach. This area is proximal to the monthly central pivot. As price action is around the mean value area, such a bullish move is likely to be feasible and may gain momentum if bulls significantly clear the 1.69350 area.

On the daily time frame, price action has formed four corrective price waves in the ascending channel seen on the weekly time frame (bound in chocolate coloured lines). A fifth price wave was bearing southward from channel resistance but bulls were resisting the move. Recent price action is under the influence of bulls and they may take price action to the next horizontal resistance around the 1.69350 area. This is in confluence with the 38.2/50.0 Fib retracement zone of the swing down from the high of December 1, 2017. It is also proximal to the monthly central pivot. This is an area I will be watching for a sell trading opportunity should a setup be seen on a daily or H4 closing basis. A breach of that zone northward on a daily closing basis will see me step aside and wait for a buy setup with a view to targeting the channel resistance.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_14th_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 54 KB
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  • #494
  • Jan 14, 2018 3:48pm Jan 14, 2018 3:48pm
I am bearish on this pair. I will look for a sell trading opportunity around the 38.2/50 Fib zone, in fact it may extend to the 61.8 Fib level. The area I will be watching is shown bound by the two horizontal magenta coloured lines on the H4 time frame, i.e. between 1.69230 and 1.70680. A breach of that area northward on a daily closing basis will see me step aside and wait for a buy setup with a view to targeting the channel resistance.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting KeenPips
I will look to trading EURNZD southward this week. Here's why. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of February 2017. This trendline formed an ascending channel with the highs of recent candlesticks. Last week, a pinbar-like bullish candlestick was formed and tested the channel support. Should bulls follow through on this pinbar, the horizontal resistance around the 1.69350 area is likely to be an initial target and it is within reach. This area is proximal to the monthly central...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #495
  • Jan 21, 2018 3:28pm Jan 21, 2018 3:28pm
Here's a top-down technical perspective on EURUSD.

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (navy) from the low of December 18, 2017. Notice, however, that price action has breached to the upside a resistance trendline (chocolate) from recent highs. Since then, and for much of last week, price action was operating sideways above this trendline and below the significant resistance zone around the 1.23420 area. We may expect a pullback of price action early this week to retest this trendline and validate it as support before further northward momentum. Nevertheless, should bears push price action further southward we can still expect a bullish mode on this pair as long as the support trendine (navy) from the low of December 18, 2017 is still intact. I will see such a move as an opportunity to look for a buy trading setup on this pair.

On the H4 time frame, recent price action has been operating within an ascending channel (bound by purple coloured lines) after some topping pattern. A breach of the channel to the south is much likely in the offing as price action in the latter part of last week saw bears strongly influential. A breach of channel support is likely to see bears target the ascending trendline (chocolate) below the channel or the minor support around the 1.20700 area. Such a move is very likely to be a corrective one as the market mode favours the bulls.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #496
  • Jan 21, 2018 3:50pm Jan 21, 2018 3:50pm
Are you looking to trade the GBPJY this week? Consider the fact that price action on the pair has been disposed northward for quite a while.

An ascending channel (bound by magenta coloured lines) can be seen on the weekly timeframe from April 2017. This followed a decline which began in August 2015. The most recent price action is around the 38.2 Fib retracement zone of the decline but operating in a consolidation phase. Within the middle of the main ascending channel (magenta), a minor and narrower ascending channel (navy) has formed. In the last three weeks, price action has been sideways in this minor channel and proximal to a horizontal resistance zone around the 152.150/154.140 area. Technically, the market mode is ambivalent and requires further clarity of price action in the next few days; stepping aside is advised.

On the daily time frame, price action is operating around the resistance of the minor ascending channel (navy) seen on the weekly time frame. The shooting star candlestick formed at the channel resistance last week Thursday was followed up by a bearish candlestick on Friday but bulls managed to push price action upward. Wave traders may look at the larger picture of the impulsive move on the left and treat current price action as part of a correction to consummate a leg down to the support line of the bigger channel (magenta) seen on the weekly time frame. However, we need further clarity of price action in the next few days.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_W1_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 46 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_D1_21_Jan.,_2018.png Size: 51 KB
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  • #497
  • Jan 22, 2018 7:03am Jan 22, 2018 7:03am
One of the factors a swing trader can adopt to gain a profitable edge in the markets is using the analysis of the relative strengths of major currencies. The trader who adopts the principle of trading strongest currency or asset against the weakest would gain the edge if they know what to look for and what to do. For example, if a trader simply goes long on GBPUSD having seen that GBP is the strongest of the majors and USD is the weakest would fail if they do not wait for the right setup and the right location.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #498
  • Jan 26, 2018 3:15am Jan 26, 2018 3:15am
Just a Thought

A swing trader should not fall into the trap of being influenced by movement on lower time frames. Just because price action speeds on a lower time frame, and contrary to the market direction on the swing trader's directional and setup time frames, they should not be impulsive to jump into a trade or change course. I have noticed earlier today calls made on some FF threads that were backfiring within minutes of the calls because of short-term orientation.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #499
  • Jan 26, 2018 3:34am Jan 26, 2018 3:34am
Quoting KeenPips
Just a Thought A swing trader should not fall into the trap of being influenced by movement on lower time frames. Just because price action speeds on a lower time frame, and contrary to the market direction on the swing trader's directional and setup time frames, they should not be impulsive to jump into a trade or change course. I have noticed earlier today calls made on some FF threads that were backfiring within minutes of the calls because of short-term orientation. Trade safe and prosper. KP
Good advice KP. Thanks. I'm not a swing trader yet but I take note
Never Ever Give Up
  • #500
  • Jan 26, 2018 4:42am Jan 26, 2018 4:42am
Thanks mate. It is important that you adopt a trading style that fits your personality.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting sumar
{quote} Good advice KP. Thanks. I'm not a swing trader yet but I take note
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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