Tell me the past, and I want to know the future. Confucius
As promised, a few interesting abnormalities that are also related to the Equilibrium.
Helmut Kohl (Federal Chancellor 1992-1998) once said: "Who does not know the past, can not understand the present and shape of the future."
I once looked at EURUSD data from 1971 to 2018. Since the euro has only existed since 1999, this is the systhetic exchange rate calculated taking into account the convergence of the exchange rates of all currencies forming the euro.
Looking at the history of the EURUSD over the past 47 years, I once tried to draw resistance and support lines.
I had to deviate a bit from the identification of equilibrium in order to draw a conclusion for the next 27 years. I admit that a price in the EURUSD of 2.02 is very daring, but the Dow 1980 was only at 880 and someone would have said at that time that he is 28 years later at 25,000 .....
... I think you were burnt as a witch.
I also know that the Dow can not be compared to currencies, but when the EURUSD stood at 0.84 in 2001, nobody would have believed it would double over the next 7 years.
Interestingly, the EURUSD increase was an average of 7,700 pip, while the decline was 5,500 pip.
Average Low to High = 7,700 pip
Average High to Low = 5,500 pip
If you look at this increase per day, you will already see a certain amount
Commonality (point 1 to 5 actual past, from point 5 possible course)
Based on the past as a basis for the future, the EURUSD could develop further in 2018 as follows.
Of course, this conclusion is purely hypothetical, since no one knows the future. It is also not about being right, it will certainly come very differently, but it is also once interesting to deal with the probability calculation.
What good is that to me? Now, assuming a long-term rising trend in 2018, I can gear my trading ideas to that, no matter what time period.
For me as a day trader and Scalper not so nice a view. I prefer trading short in the EURUSD. But when the long-term outlook is long, it goes down more slowly in down periods than when it's in a downtrend. (Of course this is not always the case).
So that was not a future prospect, especially since it does not matter to us traders whether it goes up or down. It is important that the market moves. Unfortunately, in 70% of the cases, the market is in a sideways range. So we use the remaining 30% to have fun with it.
I wish you a great weekend and good luck again from Monday
As promised, a few interesting abnormalities that are also related to the Equilibrium.
Helmut Kohl (Federal Chancellor 1992-1998) once said: "Who does not know the past, can not understand the present and shape of the future."
I once looked at EURUSD data from 1971 to 2018. Since the euro has only existed since 1999, this is the systhetic exchange rate calculated taking into account the convergence of the exchange rates of all currencies forming the euro.
Looking at the history of the EURUSD over the past 47 years, I once tried to draw resistance and support lines.
I had to deviate a bit from the identification of equilibrium in order to draw a conclusion for the next 27 years. I admit that a price in the EURUSD of 2.02 is very daring, but the Dow 1980 was only at 880 and someone would have said at that time that he is 28 years later at 25,000 .....
... I think you were burnt as a witch.
I also know that the Dow can not be compared to currencies, but when the EURUSD stood at 0.84 in 2001, nobody would have believed it would double over the next 7 years.
Interestingly, the EURUSD increase was an average of 7,700 pip, while the decline was 5,500 pip.
Average Low to High = 7,700 pip
Average High to Low = 5,500 pip
If you look at this increase per day, you will already see a certain amount
Commonality (point 1 to 5 actual past, from point 5 possible course)
Based on the past as a basis for the future, the EURUSD could develop further in 2018 as follows.
Of course, this conclusion is purely hypothetical, since no one knows the future. It is also not about being right, it will certainly come very differently, but it is also once interesting to deal with the probability calculation.
What good is that to me? Now, assuming a long-term rising trend in 2018, I can gear my trading ideas to that, no matter what time period.
For me as a day trader and Scalper not so nice a view. I prefer trading short in the EURUSD. But when the long-term outlook is long, it goes down more slowly in down periods than when it's in a downtrend. (Of course this is not always the case).
So that was not a future prospect, especially since it does not matter to us traders whether it goes up or down. It is important that the market moves. Unfortunately, in 70% of the cases, the market is in a sideways range. So we use the remaining 30% to have fun with it.
I wish you a great weekend and good luck again from Monday
Forget: "That does not work," amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
I'm looking forward to a constructive exchange. Have a nice evening
