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The Equilibrium, a key to success!

  • #21
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:00am Jan 5, 2018 10:00am
Hey Bio, are you going to keep up this thread and show some live examples?
I’ve never Had much success with supply/demand but i Love the way you are aproaching the argument
  • #22
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:07am Jan 5, 2018 10:07am
Quoting Bionics
{quote} Dear Vee, Many thanks for your high quality feedback. You realize that you are very deeply involved in the topic and have invaluable knowledge in this area. 20 years ago I bought my first shares through Deutsche Bank, from then on I was fascinated by the stock market. Linked to this, the probability calculus was a central life companion for me. I am only dealing with the forex topic for a few years, but the similarities to the stock trading are not so far away. The currencies are a central issue for me, because as Kostolany said so nicely:...
Thanks for the response. Simple is always elegant and i may sound super advanced and complex but at the core, my journey towards quantification is extremely bare bones after to remove all the fluff. It only involves opening and closing prices. Everything i wrote applies only to FX instruments. For stocks, i have a very simple and common sense approach to investing without charts or analysis since 1995 yielding 15-18% every year except years of business cycle corrections.

Back to FX, looking at your charts, I think our definition of equilibrium and SR Flips are different. I think yours is more towards consolidations, pendants, triangles, pause, slowdown etc (the building of pressure to breakout)

By SR Flips, I am referring to the line I drew on your chart image (sorry, i am still on my vacation using my cellphone lol). Please see attached.

On your image, would you enter at your points expecting a breakout or would you trade with the expectation that price would most of the time reach to the next point (filling the gap or void or blank space or vacuum which happens all day every day on all timeframes)?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Bionics Equilibrium-Modified.pdf   65 KB | 4,186 downloads
Staying in my lane...
  • #23
  • Jan 5, 2018 11:19am Jan 5, 2018 11:19am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks for the response. Simple is always elegant and i may sound super advanced and complex but at the core, my journey towards quantification is extremely bare bones after to remove all the fluff. It only involves opening and closing prices. Everything i wrote applies only to FX instruments. For stocks, i have a very simple and common sense approach to investing without charts or analysis since 1995 yielding 15-18% every year except years of business cycle corrections. Back to FX, looking at your charts, I think our definition of equilibrium...

Hello Vee,

I hope you relax a bit on vacation. How to define an equilibrium is secondary, the key is to do it and achieve results. One can always learn from the other and only that brings us further. I had expected an outbreak, which I also wrote in my post, before the actual outbreak came. However, after 35 pip there was also a setback, as we are still in a correction phase.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Equilibrium Monat.png Size: 182 KB



As I already wrote I am not able to estimate all equilibrium correctly, because of the time unit and the resulting issue of candle formatting. I will later formulate an example for lucariga from Italy to make this problem clear.
I wish you a nice holiday, when you are back home, we can continue to do so.
Kind regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #24
  • Jan 5, 2018 11:38am Jan 5, 2018 11:38am
Quoting lucariga
Hey Bio, are you going to keep up this thread and show some live examples? I’ve never Had much success with supply/demand but i Love the way you are aproaching the argument

Hello lucariga, I would like to send you an example. In the case, an example where I just lay something. Today in the EURUSD in the 1 min chart, at 16:13 CET I have plotted the future possible price course.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie1.PNG Size: 185 KB



It was assumed that the price goes high against the resistance of the Equilibrium and then turns it down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie2.PNG Size: 183 KB


1 hour later at 17:12 CET the result was available. The course was already spinning, but went down as predicted. This means that my sell limit order was not executed. But it is not bad, because I have lost no money.
and yes with my rough assessment was correct. That motivates me much more than an additional profit. But you can see that it does not always work. But let's wait and see that the course comes back to the resistance and then we'll see what happens next.

best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #25
  • Jan 5, 2018 11:58am Jan 5, 2018 11:58am
Quoting Bionics
{quote} Hello lucariga, I would like to send you an example. In the case, an example where I just lay something. Today in the EURUSD in the 1 min chart, at 16:13 CET I have plotted the future possible price course. {image} It was assumed that the price goes high against the resistance of the Equilibrium and then turns it down. {image} 1 hour later at 17:12 CET the result was available. The course was already spinning, but went down as predicted. This means that my sell limit order was not executed. But it is not bad, because I have lost no money....
Why didn’t you short this one?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4E5EB6E6-617E-4C2C-9E84-8E0DF231802C.jpeg Size: 141 KB
  • #26
  • Jan 5, 2018 12:31pm Jan 5, 2018 12:31pm
Quoting lucariga
{quote} Why didn’t you short this one? {image}
That's easy to explain. First of all, a resistance turns into a support, since the course was almost against the resistance and turned off, I assumed the course went through there. Second, the formation looks a bit shoulder-head-shoulders formation, and thirdly, the equilibrium, where the price rises 35 pip, is much stronger. That's why I was careful. In addition, there are many opportunities per day, I pick out the best and trade the. Have all day time and fun. I wait until the market comes to me and do not run after the market. But I too often go wrong, but I learn every day, especially at this moment. You asked me a question that I answered in subconsciousness because I did not go short. Now that I answer your question, I will explain it to myself again and learn from it.

best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #27
  • Jan 5, 2018 1:28pm Jan 5, 2018 1:28pm
Basically, dont trade directionless range, and get into trades only after up or down moves, and even better if those moves coincide with a support or resistance area.
  • #28
  • Jan 5, 2018 2:21pm Jan 5, 2018 2:21pm
Quoting venividivici
Basically, dont trade directionless range, and get into trades only after up or down moves, and even better if those moves coincide with a support or resistance area.
Hello venividivici, I wish you a happy new year. Thank you for your contribution, you are right, in Equilibrium you should not act, for a Scalper this situation looks different. It may be a good chance for him.

Best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #29
  • Jan 5, 2018 4:11pm Jan 5, 2018 4:11pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: counter8p.PNG Size: 123 KB


I use an indicator that plots a silver rectangle on every london session. I then look for consolidations in these gray zones and draw my own rectangles like the blue
supply level i drew in the picture. when price hit it i went short with a 2 atr SL and TP. the 2(ATR) number is already calculated and displayed on the bottom right hand corner of the chart which is the number on the left of the underscore. the number to the right of the underscore is the lotsize(my predetermine risk divided by 2ATR).

I just make sure SL is above the zone and plug in the numbers.

You can see that a demand level was also created which i have circled in white where a long opportunity was also profitable when price returned to the level

I only trust consolidations made in london session. Maybe US session if im feelin lucky but london is where the big players are
  • #30
  • Jan 6, 2018 7:13am Jan 6, 2018 7:13am
Subbed to the thread. Thanks for starting it!

@ Bionics / VEEFX - do you know of a place where I can get even a general guidance as to how to read and interpret the Candle Strength indicator (and even more relevant to the topic - in relation to equilibrium)? I went through hanover's threads, but couldn't find anything on it.

Cheers and keep it going! Have a nice weekend/holiday in the case of VEEFX.
  • #31
  • Jan 6, 2018 10:38am Jan 6, 2018 10:38am
Hello dear traders,

some of you wanted to see some live examples about Equilibrium. On Fri 05.01.18 at 16:13 CET I posted a possible course in the EURUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie1.PNG Size: 187 KB


I drew two resistance lines that were characterized by an equilibrium. I assumed that the first resistance line at which the course was breached and runs back down the second resistance line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie2.PNG Size: 186 KB


An hour later at 17:12 CET you could see that the price did not reach the second resistance level, but it followed my marked course very nicely. I was convinced that the price would come up to this resistance later and then go down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie3.PNG Size: 201 KB


As you can see on the chart at 20:08 CET, the price went to resistance at 19:00 CET for the first time and went down 5 pips. After that, he was in a sideways phase. (Here a nice equilibrium formed in the 30 minutes chart)
Friday evening 20:00 CET, very low volatility in a range and against 20:08 CET, the course then went into the resistance. The limit sell order I recommended was triggered now. Many beginners would have expected an outbreak now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie4.PNG Size: 214 KB


EURUSD at 22.59 CET, the price has gone down 20 pip. I admit that the volatility was very low, but so was the risk. You can see that a strong resistance does not always mean that a course always has to bounce off strong and fast. 20 pip in 2 hours is not exactly an optimal trade, but ultimately the result counts. What motivated me was my correct assessment of the strong resistance. From that point on, the price went down. You see how important this equilibrium is for future resistance lines.

That does not mean that my way of trading is the measure of all things. Every trader has to find out his own style that suits him. Therefore, I will not discuss the way I trade and I would never presume to criticize other traders in your style. I say: Success is right for a trader. For constructive criticism I am always open, because criticism is only a help to get better. At first I made the mistake of trying out a trading style and as soon as it did not work, I was looking for a new way.

Find the trade style that suits you and pull that 10,000 hours through, then you're pro. I know that sounds easy, but it is not. Forex Factory has 12 times more members than private traders in Germany. Here you will definitely find something to find your own style. What sometimes dazzles me is how some traders interact with each other here. Sometimes you think you are in kindergarten. We're all grown up (I hope) and should treat each other respectfully and fairly.

It's not about being right or being the best. On the stock market only 2% gain the remaining 98% lose. Search for these 2% and listen carefully. Read between the lines, because there are the success formulas hidden. Maybe one day you'll be one of those you listen to.

I wish you a lot of success
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #32
  • Jan 6, 2018 11:07am Jan 6, 2018 11:07am
I will cut short
what's d difference from supply demand?
There r equilibrium zones that not worked. why not putting those into play?

thanks in advance
WaBaS Where are Buyers and Sellers
  • #33
  • Jan 6, 2018 11:22am Jan 6, 2018 11:22am
Nice thread Bionics! I like the topic, because I have also worked on this topic for years. Finally I found something that works for me well.
To find the equilibrium of the market (or called mid) is really really difficult. Let’s give some hints what I’ve found:
- a equilibrium needs a reference to a period of time, because price is a function of time, so let’s take the daily timeframe (open at 22gmt)
- what do we have? A Open, high, low and close. That’s not enough, we also need the tick data because price is a function of time. So when we have the ticks we also know what comes first high or low additionally we know when they made (in Asia, London or in US session)

now you have the data you need to calculate the equilibrium of a given period of time.

it works very well, but in major trends sometime buyer and sellers don’t need a equilibrium, but the price will always comes back to the equilibrium whenever possible.

Anyway there a 100000 possibilities to calculate a equilibrium!

Regards from germany

mb
  • #34
  • Jan 6, 2018 11:26am Jan 6, 2018 11:26am
Hello Trader Waldo,

The decisive factors are the Equilibium you have drawn in your chart.

Here you can see my chart picture in 30 min Char EURUSD. As soon as the price hits my resistance or support zones, I see how the price reacts, but in smaller timeframes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie5.PNG Size: 140 KB


When I have drawn my lines, as a trader I am able to make a decision. It does not matter if I'm right or not, it's crucial how I react to the situation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie6.PNG Size: 112 KB


In the 1 minute chart you can see very nicely that the price is short-refereed. Since it is a strong equilibrium, you should wait and see if the price is swinging back up or it breaks the resistance zone. I do not trade in the 30 min chart, this only helps me to ensure an overview in the medium term.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie7.PNG Size: 118 KB



As you can see on the daily chart, a new equilibrium is being formed there. That means sellers and buyers are currently the same and undecided where to go. At the top is a strong resistance line, which must first be broken to clear the way up.

Basically, I believe and that's just my own opinion that we're long in the monthly chart in 2018, so we're in a correction phase to go over the last high of 1.209. For this I will publish an interesting post here in the thread. Then, unfortunately, just pure speculation like everything on the stock market.


I wish you a nice weekend
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #35
  • Jan 6, 2018 11:44am Jan 6, 2018 11:44am
Quoting Zelias
Subbed to the thread. Thanks for starting it! @ Bionics / VEEFX - do you know of a place where I can get even a general guidance as to how to read and interpret the Candle Strength indicator (and even more relevant to the topic - in relation to equilibrium)? I went through hanover's threads, but couldn't find anything on it. Cheers and keep it going! Have a nice weekend/holiday in the case of VEEFX.
Hello dear Zelias, first of all welcome in our thread and thank you for the kind words. Years ago, I created an Excel spreadsheet to create the individual candle thickness in the 4H chart.

Slide1

My aim was to measure the pressure inside the candle to see how strong the candle really is. I searched the world for such an indicator and by chance found Hanover. He is an excellent programmer, but he uses a different calculation as far as I know.
He is the developer and can explain you the calculation. He has great ideas and will definitely help you.

I wish you much success here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Folie8.PNG Size: 925 KB
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #36
  • Jan 6, 2018 11:47am Jan 6, 2018 11:47am
Quoting Bionics
Hello Trader Waldo, The decisive factors are the Equilibium you have drawn in your chart. Here you can see my chart picture in 30 min Char EURUSD. As soon as the price hits my resistance or support zones, I see how the price reacts
How do you feel about Sam Seiden and his supply and demand trading ideas?

What additional edge do you recommend for supply and demand trading?
  • #37
  • Jan 6, 2018 12:07pm Jan 6, 2018 12:07pm
Quoting sharingan9
{image} I use an indicator that plots a silver rectangle on every london session. I then look for consolidations in these gray zones and draw my own rectangles like the blue supply level i drew in the picture. when price hit it i went short with a 2 atr SL and TP. the 2(ATR) number is already calculated and displayed on the bottom right hand corner of the chart which is the number on the left of the underscore. the number to the right of the underscore is the lotsize(my predetermine risk divided by 2ATR). I just make sure SL is above the zone and...
Hello sharingan9,

I find your approach very interesting, in principle a bit of a break out strategy with regard to Equilibrium. Your success will prove you right and I would never change a successful strategy. For myself, I find a kind of breakout strategy too dangerous, as the big players often push their course over the lines to strangle or mislead the small traders in the market. Since I live in Germany, the London Session is just as interesting. I usually start my analysis already 2 hours before the London Open. At 11:30 CET, most of the time until 14:00 CET, there is little movement. From 14:00 CET to 17:00 CET we often have high volatility, then again between 18:00 and 20:00 CET.

They have a lot in advance for many traders. You have a system and success, and you're right. Stick to it.

best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #38
  • Jan 6, 2018 12:18pm Jan 6, 2018 12:18pm
Quoting mr.brown
I will cut short what's d difference from supply demand? There r equilibrium zones that not worked. why not putting those into play? thanks in advance
Hello Mr Brown,

welcome to our thread,

Why do some Equilibrium zones not work?

The big problem with the candles in the chart is the period in which they are formed. Surely you know how to hammer, doji, engulfing, etc. Sometimes you work, but often not. This is due to the temporal composition of the candles. Candle formations in a certain time frame are therefore just a random product of the time, the broker and the dealer. If you change the time frame in which the candles are formed, then the candles and their formations change. The doji is now a normal candle with no indication of a course change.

At the same time I have 6 different timeframes open for observation, so I can recognize the formation of an equilibrium faster. But still this system is not a system which can be solved with an indicator. It is very difficult and requires 10,000 hours of experience. But in the end you will be rewarded for it.

best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #39
  • Jan 6, 2018 12:51pm Jan 6, 2018 12:51pm
Quoting MetBo
Nice thread Bionics! I like the topic, because I have also worked on this topic for years. Finally I found something that works for me well. To find the equilibrium of the market (or called mid) is really really difficult. Let’s give some hints what I’ve found: - a equilibrium needs a reference to a period of time, because price is a function of time, so let’s take the daily timeframe (open at 22gmt) - what do we have? A Open, high, low and close. That’s not enough, we also need the tick data because price is a function of time. So when we have...
Hello MetBo,

Also you a warm welcome to the thread, I am very pleased that you are trading successfully with the Equilibrium. You are right that it is very difficult to find the right equilibrium. A little tip: Get the Indicator Candle Strength from Hanover, a great programmer and build it into your charts. In the equilibrium phase, please pay attention to a very low Candle Strength Candle Strength. This will help you to identify the important zones.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Equilibrium.png Size: 181 KB


I hope we stay in touch.

best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
  • #40
  • Jan 6, 2018 1:09pm Jan 6, 2018 1:09pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks for the response. Simple is always elegant and i may sound super advanced and complex but at the core, my journey towards quantification is extremely bare bones after to remove all the fluff. It only involves opening and closing prices. Everything i wrote applies only to FX instruments. For stocks, i have a very simple and common sense approach to investing without charts or analysis since 1995 yielding 15-18% every year except years of business cycle corrections. Back to FX, looking at your charts, I think our definition of equilibrium...

Hello vee,

Great approaches you have sent, we can gladly speak after your vacation in peace. I wish you a good rest.

best regards
Forget:That does not work, amateurs build the ark, pros the Titanic!
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