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The Swamp

  • #14,001
  • Jan 5, 2018 8:19am Jan 5, 2018 8:19am
closed eur/cad short for 177 and took a long scalp here
  • #14,002
  • Jan 5, 2018 8:20am Jan 5, 2018 8:20am
Quoting Boulder
Less than an hour before NFP, I am doing a system update, Euro stalled at the previous high yesterday, while dollar went to the weekly demand zone. Euro H1 reversed its uptrend last night. Coming up if NFP numbers have no miss, there is over 85% chance H4 will reverse its current trend as well.. Euro On 1/5/2018 at 7am est.. BLDR MTF system update : H1, Downtrend, Trend stop at H1 close 2081, Running Period: 5 hours H4, Uptrend, Trend stop at H4 close 2008, Running Period: 89 x H4 Daily, uptrend, Trend stop at day close 1724, Running Period:...
Euro H1 downtrend held at its close.. now wait to see we can test H4 uptrend stop 2008 to reverse the long running h4 trend....
  • #14,003
  • Jan 5, 2018 9:44am Jan 5, 2018 9:44am
Quoting Boulder
Usd currently stabilizes, it indicates the weekly demand runs its course for now. Focus on US jobs data, esp hourly earnings, if we beat, I would expect the price to move higher to break H4 resistance 92.21... USDX On 1/5/2018 at 8am est. BLDR MTF system update : H1, Uptrend, Trend stop at H1 close 91.80, Running Period: 7 hours H4, downtrend, Trend stop at H4 close 92.21, Running Period: 88 x H4 Daily, downtrend, Trend stop at day close 94.11, Running Period: 31 days Weekly, downtrend, Trend stop at week close 95.02, Running Period:...
Dollar weekly demand slowly comes in play after NFP release... H4 downtrend stop 92.21 is expected to be tested soon... 92.09 at the moment..
  • #14,004
  • Jan 5, 2018 9:50am Jan 5, 2018 9:50am
so quiet today this thread.. guess we don't have a lot of bears...
here for you, Euro bears....

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  • #14,005
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:03am Jan 5, 2018 10:03am
for bears,, L needs to close <2068
  • #14,006
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:13am Jan 5, 2018 10:13am
Quoting Boulder
so quiet today this thread.. guess we don't have a lot of bears... here for you, Euro bears.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NucJ...=RDNucJk8TxyRg
Well price action was probably not what was expected. The same as during the whole week, data don´t seem to be interesting any longer, it is just a trigger for "something".
So what to talk about?
You play music, I am off to New Year table tennis tournament, will be a lot of fun.
Enjoy the weekend!
  • #14,007
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:17am Jan 5, 2018 10:17am
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} Well price action was probably not what was expected. The same as during the whole week, data don´t seem to be interesting any longer, it is just a trigger for "something". So what to talk about? You play music, I am off to New Year table tennis tournament, will be a lot of fun. Enjoy the weekend!
oh,, you are coming to US.. great.!... are you in the tournament?.. if so.. you have my best wishes.. good luck!!
  • #14,008
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:21am Jan 5, 2018 10:21am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} oh,, you are coming to US.. great.!... are you in the tournament?.. if so.. you have my best wishes.. good luck!!
No US, just around the blocks
Maybe the name is the same.
  • #14,009
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:24am Jan 5, 2018 10:24am
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} No US, just around the blocks Maybe the name is the same.
oh my,,,.. I thought I saw 'New York' instead of 'New Year',, ..silly me ..
  • #14,010
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:36am Jan 5, 2018 10:36am
Quoting Boulder
for bears,, L needs to close <2068
L closed lower today,, expect to test 2007/8 London Dec month close and 2005 US month end close soon...almost the same as H4 uptrend stop...
  • #14,011
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:47am Jan 5, 2018 10:47am
ripple(xrp) looking for maybe $2 next or $1.9...watching.
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Nothing stands in the way of a person's will -THE MYSTICS
  • #14,012
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:48am Jan 5, 2018 10:48am
I miss Gator when he is not around ,,, we need his comments on PAs and levels...
The COT report may come out today (not sure since Monday was a holiday).. I will chat with you later.. good luck to you all!...
  • #14,013
  • Jan 5, 2018 10:53am Jan 5, 2018 10:53am
Quoting Patrich
ripple(xrp) looking for maybe $2 next or $1.9...watching. {image}
btcusd minimal 16513 may be next since 14253 norm...watching.
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Nothing stands in the way of a person's will -THE MYSTICS
  • #14,014
  • Jan 5, 2018 11:13am Jan 5, 2018 11:13am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Less noticeable. Oil market is dead, energy might not be a concern in near future, techs are developing. What is your take?
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  • #14,015
  • Jan 5, 2018 12:05pm Jan 5, 2018 12:05pm
a lower day close... looks to test 1.2001,, all time frames above the day are higher. they are all sitting at 1.2001
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #14,016
  • Edited Jan 6, 2018 11:44am Jan 5, 2018 2:12pm | Edited Jan 6, 2018 11:44am
Quoting gatorinla
a lower day close... looks to test 1.2001,, all time frames above the day are higher. they are all sitting at 1.2001
Gator, can I ask for your advice,, would you short if L closes below 2001...since current price still above Dec close....also above weekly open 2005
just want to learn in what conditions you would pull the trigger for shorts..
  • #14,017
  • Edited 9:15pm Jan 5, 2018 8:21pm | Edited 9:15pm
The largest Euro longs on record shown in the lastest COT as of Tuesday, Jan 2, 2018.
From Dec 27th to Jan 2nd, institutions net long Euro positions increased by 35,720 lots to 127,868 lots, the highest on the record.
27,895 long positions were aggressively added and 7,825 short positions were closed .

We did see price pushed from 1855 low on 12/27 to 2081 high on 2nd with close at 2058 .

This behavior was highly expected since it was last week of the year. Dec is typical the best month for Euro, so this Dec 2017 had no exception

it took them 4 days to fulfil that norm, as I mentioned on Jan 2nd, post #13817, It was the 4th day in a row that EUR/USD had closed above the previous day's high.

68% long exposure vs short exposure 32%, which 4% increased in longs and 4% decreased in shorts from the previous week

Euro was very bullish on Jan 2nd by reading this report. But are they going to unwind though. That is my question
Waiting on this to develop for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT 01022018.png Size: 22 KB
  • #14,018
  • Jan 5, 2018 9:32pm Jan 5, 2018 9:32pm
Quoting Boulder
The largest Euro longs on record shown in the lastest COT as of Tuesday, Jan 2, 2018. From Dec 27th to Jan 2nd, institutions net long Euro positions increased by 35,720 lots to 127,868 lots, the highest on the record. 27,895 long positions were aggressively added and 7,825 short positions were closed . We did see price pushed from 1855 low on 12/27 to 2081 high on 2nd with close at 2058 . This behavior was highly expected since it was last week of the year. Dec is typical the best month for Euro, so this Dec 2017 had no exception it took them 4...
I really appreciate your inputs in here.
Between you, gator, and others in here, we are all getting valuable insights of the market.
Keep up the good work
  • #14,019
  • Edited 12:45pm Jan 6, 2018 12:32pm | Edited 12:45pm
...First time to hear this old song..... love it!! ...great advice on being a disciplined trader...

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  • #14,020
  • Jan 6, 2018 3:24pm Jan 6, 2018 3:24pm
For Dollar, the lastest COT as of Tuesday, Jan 2, 2018 shows the institutions net long dollar positions decreased during the last week by 364 lots to 2,167 lots.
5,356 long positions were added and 5,720 short positions were added as well.

Price moved from high 93.2 on 12/27/2017 to 91.75 low on 1/2/2018 and closed at 91.84, at a weekly demand zone

Since longs being added, that could be they are in preparation for price moving up from the weekly demand zone.
But the shorts being added as well, that indicates their belief the dollar still has room to drop

no clear picture ..
so just watching for confirmation now..
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