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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #5,981
  • Jan 5, 2018 11:41am Jan 5, 2018 11:41am
Quoting C-12
Nicely done. I've barely traded at all this year as I've been trying wrap my head around this whole crypto currency business. This may sound ridiculous but I'm seriously concerned it has the potential to bring down the entire financial system over the coming years. I can imagine a future where money evaporates out of stocks, commodities, bonds, bank accounts and gets sucked into this unregulated pyramid system of exponential returns. The current crypto market cap is almost $1trillion and growing rapidly. It may be well over $10trillion in a...
What if cryptos is a well designed plan by the elites for another, big run of wealth transfer to them ?

You never know what these sick minds are capable off
  • #5,982
  • Edited 12:42pm Jan 5, 2018 12:30pm | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting timos
{quote} What if cryptos is a well designed plan by the elites for another, big run of wealth transfer to them ? You never know what these sick minds are capable off
Well if not, the governments will surely be happy for cypto to bring down the system so they can wipe out the debts. Would a great escape for them to be able to blame the evil crypto speculators...

For the rest of us, the truth is that it will be far easier to make money in Altcoins over the next few years rather than busting your arse off trading Forex.

I've noticed Tom (Trader Dante) has just converted to the dark-side. https://twitter.com/Trader_Dante

Some serious cash was just pumped into Nexus today and these kind of % gains are happening to a whole bunch of Altcoins on a daily, consistant basis..

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nexus/
  • #5,983
  • Jan 5, 2018 12:55pm Jan 5, 2018 12:55pm
Quoting C-12
I'm happy to share this info with you guys, good or bad days. It's something I don't see anyone else on this forum doing too often. This is today's and yesterday's trading. Nowhere near as good as yesterday but still well up! Quite a lot of break evens (happens a lot but they add to the profit) and a good few silly mistakes earlier but I'm generally doing very very well with this method, as you can see. Account is in £GBP. {image} {image}
Hi,

How much is that in 'monthly account growth' [%]?
I asked myself that question and my math revealed that in two years time you'd be 262 times richer than Bill Gates so...yeah...
What is your monthly average account growth [%]? (this question goes to anybody who is willing to share this info)

I understand if you (or anybody else) will not want to share the info. I'm just like...really confused right now lol.
How Can Mirrors Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real - Jaden Smith
  • #5,984
  • Jan 5, 2018 1:03pm Jan 5, 2018 1:03pm
Quoting papabless
{quote} Hi, How much is that in 'monthly account growth' [%]? I asked myself that question and my math revealed that in two years time you'd be 262 times richer than Bill Gates so...yeah... What is your monthly average account growth [%]? (this question goes to anybody who is willing to share this info) I understand if you (or anybody else) will not want to share the info. I'm just like...really confused right now lol.
Well I'm just pointing out some of the things I'm seeing and not really anything that's a secret.

At the end of the day, trading is all about managing risk and speculating on price movement. That's what we do.

It's frustrating to admit, but I can't see anything less risky right now than simply punting a few quid on a bunch of Altcoins.

This bubble appears to be in the very early stages of the biggest mania the world has ever seen. It's also the biggest scam of all time but I see nothing on the horizon to stop it.
  • #5,985
  • Jan 5, 2018 1:29pm Jan 5, 2018 1:29pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Well I'm just pointing out some of the things I'm seeing and not really anything that's a secret. At the end of the day, trading is all about managing risk and speculating on price movement. That's what we do. It's frustrating to admit, but I can't see anything less risky right now than simply punting a few quid on a bunch of Altcoins. This bubble appears to be in the very early stages of the biggest mania the world has ever seen. It's also the biggest scam of all time but I see nothing on the horizon to stop it.
I think that we either misunderstood each other (I quoted your post #11 on the very first page) or you just wanted to reply to somebody else.
How Can Mirrors Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real - Jaden Smith
  • #5,986
  • Jan 5, 2018 1:34pm Jan 5, 2018 1:34pm
Quoting papabless
{quote} I think that we either misunderstood each other (I quoted your post #11 on the very first page) or you just wanted to reply to somebody else.
Oh god, that was years ago back in the early M1 madness days where accounts were either tripled or blown up.

Wish I could delete that nonsense since it was nothing more than newbie high frequency gambling.
  • #5,987
  • Jan 5, 2018 2:36pm Jan 5, 2018 2:36pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Oh god, that was years ago back in the early M1 madness days where accounts were either tripled or blown up. Wish I could delete that nonsense since it was nothing more than newbie high frequency gambling.
Here's the math:


I was rounding most of the numbers, but always in a way that would result in a worst possible outcome.

You posted 2 days worth of data.
Your total amount of £ won is 1,400 and lost is £500.
You had 15 losing trades so £500/15=£33.33 avg. risk per trade
Since it's common to not risk more than 3% of your account balance on a trade, I know that £33.33 was your 1-3% of your account. I did the math assuming it was 1%.
I then subtracted £500 from £1,400 which gives us your pure two-day-profit of £900.
Then just divide that by the 1%. So £900/33.33=27 that's your average % account growth in two trading days which adds up to 270% in a month (20 trading days).
Now if you start with $1,000, in a year, you'll have little over $150,000,000, and in two years you'll have $2.25284e13. Divide that number by Bill Gates' net worth ($86,000,000,000) and you get just almost 262.

Your r:r looked right so you didn't really need that much ITM%, and I don't think you'd risk more than 3% on your trades.
So what's the reason why it wasn't working out? Is my math wrong? What's your average monthly % growth of your account these days? What's a realistic number?
How Can Mirrors Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real - Jaden Smith
  • #5,988
  • Jan 5, 2018 2:49pm Jan 5, 2018 2:49pm
Quoting papabless
{quote}So what's the reason why it wasn't working out? Is my math wrong? What's your average monthly % growth of your account these days? What's a realistic number?
Because trading is a psychological roller-coaster. To make those kind of returns, you must be extremely in the "zone" every time you place an order and be able to do it consistently every single day.

However, a couple of bad entries, or a mistimed news event can send you into a tailspin of emotions when you're trading with that kind of intensity. I tried it with live accounts and it was boom followed by bust every time. Back in 2012/2013 I would have 2 - 3 amazing days followed by 1 - 2 days of madness.

You have to be realistic with your expectations. The biggest minds in the investment business are happy with a 10% yearly gain. The bigger the account, the less comfortable you become with risk exposure. Over time, you realise high risk / high frequency scalping isn't sustainable.

Trading is definitely less exciting on higher timeframes but it's a better strategy in the long run.
  • #5,989
  • Jan 5, 2018 2:57pm Jan 5, 2018 2:57pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Because trading is a psychological roller-coaster. To make those kind of returns, you must be extremely in the "zone" every time you place an order and be able to do it consistently every single day. However, a couple of bad entries, or a mistimed news event can send you into a tailspin of emotions when you're trading with that kind of intensity. I tried it with live accounts and it was boom followed by bust every time. Back in 2012/2013 I would have 2 - 3 amazing days followed by 1 - 2 days of madness. You have to be realistic with your...
10% yearly?
I see all over the internet that over 30% monthly is not possible and that people should aim somewhere around 10-15% a month to be realistic.
How Can Mirrors Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real - Jaden Smith
  • #5,990
  • Jan 5, 2018 3:08pm Jan 5, 2018 3:08pm
Quoting papabless
{quote} 10% yearly? I see all over the internet that over 30% monthly is not possible and that people should aim somewhere around 10-15% a month to be realistic.
30% a month in forex is realistic with a small account if you're disciplined enough.

If you're managing a multi billion dollar hedge fund then 10% is a great return.

It's all about risk tolerance at the end of the day.
  • #5,991
  • Jan 5, 2018 3:12pm Jan 5, 2018 3:12pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} 30% a month in forex is realistic with a small account if you're disciplined enough. If you're managing a multi billion dollar hedge fund then 10% is a great return. It's all about risk tolerance at the end of the day.
So what you're saying is that as long as you're trading small account, 30% a month is realistic.
But once you cross a certain figure (different for everybody) you're scared of losing and so you make say 10% a month and you stop trading for that month because it's enough for you and you don't want to lose it, is that correct?
How Can Mirrors Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real - Jaden Smith
  • #5,992
  • Jan 5, 2018 3:29pm Jan 5, 2018 3:29pm
Quoting papabless
{quote} So what you're saying is that as long as you're trading small account, 30% a month is realistic. But once you cross a certain figure (different for everybody) you're scared of losing and so you make say 10% a month and you stop trading for that month because it's enough for you and you don't want to lose it, is that correct?
That's pretty much it, and exactly why the majority of profitable traders are not multi billionaires.
  • #5,993
  • Jan 5, 2018 3:45pm Jan 5, 2018 3:45pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} That's pretty much it, and exactly why the majority of profitable traders are not multi billionaires.
Don't try to tell me that there's nobody who started side account with $10,000 and then just traded that emotionlessly with 30% a month.
I just don't believe that there isn't anybody like that.
The problem is that the somebody would make $68.6 billion in just 5 years. By the end of January during the sixth year, that somebody would be richer than Bill Gates.
What am I missing?
How Can Mirrors Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real - Jaden Smith
  • #5,994
  • Jan 5, 2018 4:15pm Jan 5, 2018 4:15pm
Quoting papabless
{quote} Don't try to tell me that there's nobody who started side account with $10,000 and then just traded that emotionlessly with 30% a month. I just don't believe that there isn't anybody like that. The problem is that the somebody would make $68.6 billion in just 5 years. By the end of January during the sixth year, that somebody would be richer than Bill Gates. What am I missing?
Your math is funny or you're talking about compounding :-)

$10,000 x 30% = $3,000 x 12months = $36,000 x 5years = $180,000

If you're talking about compounding then it's not a $10,000 account anymore.
  • #5,995
  • Jan 5, 2018 4:30pm Jan 5, 2018 4:30pm
Quoting papabless
{quote} Don't try to tell me that there's nobody who started side account with $10,000 and then just traded that emotionlessly with 30% a month. I just don't believe that there isn't anybody like that. The problem is that the somebody would make $68.6 billion in just 5 years. By the end of January during the sixth year, that somebody would be richer than Bill Gates. What am I missing?
I was you 6 or 7 years ago. I did the maths with similar compound calculations in excel and believed these type of unlimited exponential gains were possible.

After 2 years of trading, including a 6 month period of trading full time, cold hard reality sets in.

You may have to experience it to understand it.
  • #5,996
  • Jan 5, 2018 4:31pm Jan 5, 2018 4:31pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Your math is funny or you're talking about compounding :-) $10,000 x 30% = $3,000 x 12months = $36,000 x 5years = $180,000 If you're talking about compounding then it's not a $10,000 account anymore.
Oh yeah, I thought it's off big time. Here's the math:

$10,000 * 0.3 = $3,000
new account balance: $13,000
$13,000 * 0.3 = $3,900
new account balance: $16,900
$16,900 * 0.3 = $5,070
new account balance: $21,970
$21,970 * 0.3 = $6,591
new account balance: $28,561
$28,561 * 0.3 = $8,568
new account balance: $37,129
.
.
.

Now that's not exactly compounding but what you do is that every month you basically trade with an account balance that's bigger by 30% than last month's balance.

What am I missing?
How Can Mirrors Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real - Jaden Smith
  • #5,997
  • Edited 5:15pm Jan 5, 2018 4:50pm | Edited 5:15pm
Quoting papabless
{quote}What am I missing?
The forex market isn't a gift that keeps on giving.. It is the riskiest business on the planet and probably one of the most stressful and psychologically draining.

What about the need to withdraw money or the realisation that some months will be tougher than others? What about event risks that mean you've got to scale back your exposure or experience drawn down? You can have good months, average months and bad months.

These calculations are meaningless, especially if you're under capitalised, inexperienced and have bills to pay. Forex returns look great at the outset but you have to have realistic expectations no matter how good your method is.It takes years of live screen time under a vast array of market conditions to even begin to be consistently profitable with a live account.

Most traders eventually fail, quit altogether or turn to other aspects of trading such as selling indicators, systems or education etc. The ones that do make it are usually satisfied with a modest size base account and consistent low risk returns rather than Bill Gates aspirations.
  • #5,998
  • Jan 5, 2018 4:58pm Jan 5, 2018 4:58pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} The forex market isn't a gift that keeps on giving.. It is the riskiest business on the planet and probably one of the most stressful and psychologically draining. What about the need to withdraw money or the realisation that some months will be tougher than others? What about event risks that mean you've got to scale back your exposure or experience drawn down? You can have good months, average months and bad months. These calculations are meaningless, especially if you're under capitalised, inexperienced and have bills to pay. Forex returns...
Oh, I see... I understand now, thanks.
One more thing, in my latest post, is that math correct in theory, can you really scale it like that? If we forget about the withdrawing, drawbacks, stress and whatnot.
How Can Mirrors Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real - Jaden Smith
  • #5,999
  • Jan 5, 2018 5:10pm Jan 5, 2018 5:10pm
Quoting papabless
{quote} Oh, I see... I understand now, thanks. One more thing, in my latest post, is that math correct in theory, can you really scale it like that? If we forget about the withdrawing, drawbacks, stress and whatnot.
Yeah it's possible and there are people who can do it but I've never seen anyone (in the retail space) who has taken an account to an exponential level.

There have been a few scammers on here who've shown trade multi million dollar trade explorers, but they've all been banned for various frauds.
  • #6,000
  • Jan 5, 2018 5:13pm Jan 5, 2018 5:13pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yeah it's possible and there are people who can do it but I've never seen anyone (in the retail space) who has taken this to an exponential level. There have been a few scammers on here who've shown trade multi million dollar trade explorers but they've all been banned for various frauds.
Ok, thank you for the explanation and your time.
Have a nice rest of the day/night . . . wherever you are.
How Can Mirrors Be Real If Our Eyes Aren't Real - Jaden Smith
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