TheDirtySerb Daily Journal

The purpose of this journal is to be able to put my thoughts and ideas somewhere in order to access them at a later date. This is more for me than anyone else. I'm not looking to share trade ideas, have discussions, or to prove anything to anyone except to myself. Please don't post on this thread.

My daily strategy is slow, steady, and profitable, but I need to prove to myself that I can trade intra-day. I will keep trading until I either blow up my account or for a full year, whichever comes first, while documenting everything. Then I will review the journal and see how I've done from day 1. Did I stay consistent? Did I manage risk? etc... The goal is to trade exactly the same for a full year and not change a thing. No adding indicators, no martingale (I will scale in if the entry allows it), and no over-trading.

I will decide on entry based on S&R, daily strength and currency sentiment. My only indicator is a daily range indicator, that’s it. If a pair is up for the day, enter long only on pull-back. I don't enter long at the top, or short at the bottom.

I will look for top and bottom entries to reverse only when a pair has considerably exceeded average daily range, but is not based on a major news move such as interest rates or monetary policy.

Trading pairs will be limited to 6, but mostly EU, GU, UJ, UCad - EJ, GJ will be monitored, but only traded if the Yen is significantly strong or weak.

My first day begins Thursday January 4th 2018.

Starting the morning it looks like Euro is the strongest currency followed by the Pound, while the Yen and the Dollar are the weakest.

I have a problem with Euro running up based on nothing in particular and seeing how it is almost exceeding the daily range I will wait for a top to form and then short it. There is only one condition I will go long on EU and that is if ADP causes a quick spike down to the 1.2028-1.2035 area, I will get in there with a stop below 1.2015.

GU looks pretty good to retest the 1.3585 area. I'll be looking for a pull-back to get long.

UCad looks bearish but with no real sense of direction, I'll stay away for now. Looks to be stronger against the Yen and Dollar but weaker against the Euro and Pound.

UJ looks neutral-bullish at the moment as the Yen is the weakest across the board and the pair is slightly up on the day. I'm looking for a pull-back during news or just after to get long.

Entered GU long as 1.3530 is holding for now. Tight stop just below at 1.3525.

GU position closed as I will not carry any overnight positions.

A little frustrated with the price action today as I could not get a clear entry on other pairs and my GU entry while producing a minor profit, did not react as I believed it would.

Friday January 5th - NFP Day.

The Dollar is stronger across the board this morning, but particularly against the Yen, which is by far the weakest currency.

EU- Neutral bearish - waiting for NFP to determine direction.

GU - Flat - Waiting for NFP

UJ - Bullish - is NFP priced into this move up? If not, buy the dips.

Watch EJ and GJ too for yen weakness. All three have been relatively flat since London open. Determine direction and trade pull-backs and dips.

NFP number unexpectedly bad. Looking to sell the dollar now.

UJ short at 113.16 just triggered.

EU long at 1.2057 triggered.

This is just noise right now before NY open. I will not add to or close these positions until then.

Lost 35 on EU long.

Analysis: My initial view of the market this morning was dollar bullish and for EU it was neutral bearish. I went against my initial view due to poor NFP number.

Note to self: Stay consistent and manage trade better. 35 pips was too large of a hit to take on that one trade.

Closed UJ for 3 pips as it does not look like it will try for 113 and the Yen still really weak.

Monday, January 8th

Euro is the weakest currency and the Yen is the strongest this morning. Look for pull-backs on Yen crosses to buy Yen.

EJ - Bearish - Sell rallies
EU - Bearish - Sell rallies
GU - Neutral - Wait for direction
GJ - Bearish - Sell rallies
Ucad - Neutral Bullish - Wait for direction
UJ - Bearish - Sell rallies

Short UJ at 113
Short EU at 1.1967

Somewhat of a hedge trade since I'm short and long USD but playing weakness and strength.

Sold GJ at 153.47

Sold EJ at 135.45

Results from earlier today.

EU -4, UJ +36, GJ +20, EJ +22. Total = +74

Analysis: I may have to rethink not leaving trades open into the Asia session. My thinking has always been if trades are not closed by end of NY session, I'm basically just hoping trades go my way at that point. My other responsibilities pulled me away from the charts today and I was forced to put hard stops and TP's in place which I'm not a fan of. I'll have to play with that a bit more.

Overall I followed my rules and bought the Yen when it weakened some during London/NY session. EU did not cooperate and my entry was iffy at best so I just closed it for a tiny loss.

Tuesday, January 9th.

Yen is the strongest currency and Euro and Pound are about equally weak. Dollar is also strong but down against the Yen. Cad is flat, stronger than EUR and GBP, but weaker than USD and Yen.

EU - Bearish - Look to sell rallies.
EJ - Bearish - Look to sell rallies.
GJ - Bearish - Look to sell rallies.
GU - Bearish - Look to sell rallies.
UJ - Bearish - Look to sell rallies.
Ucad - Neutral Bullish - Coming into a little bit of support around daily open, will try long there.

Wednesday, January 10th.

Yen is once again the strongest currency followed by the Euro. Dollar is the weakest today followed by Cad and the Pound.

EU - Bullish - Looking to buy on pullback from 1.1990 down to 1.1975.
EJ - Bearish - Strength of euro may cause this to range and not drop any further - staying on the sidelines for now.
GJ - Bearish - Exceeded daily range by ton. Should be pullbacks to enter short. 151 - 151.16 - 151.31 - Tight stops in case of short squeeze.
GU - Neutral Bullish- Long possibilities on pullbacks from 1.3525-1.3505.
UCad - Neutral Bearish - Short possible around 1.2460.
UJ - Exceeded daily range by a mile. Looking for pullbacks to short. Starting from 111.60-111.80.

Lost -22 on EU, Lost -16 on GU, Lost -25 on Ucad, Made +45 on GJ = -18 pips.

Analysis: R:R was decent and all things considered went 1 win and 4 losses and only lost 18 pips. USD reversed and while I could have taken small profits on both EU and and GU I had to let the trade run for a bit like I did on GJ. Yesterday my entries were too tight and I didn't catch anything, while today they were a little looser and I caught a bunch although outcome was unfavourable. Stuck to the plan though so I'm happy with the way I traded.

Thursday, January 11th.

Euro flying high this morning and is the strongest currency post ECB monetary policy, followed by the Yen which is starting to flatten a bit. Dollar is flat while Cad and GBP are the weakest.

EU - Bullish, buy pullbacks.
EJ - Bullish - buy pullbacks.
GJ - Neutral - wait for direction.
GU - Neutral Bearish - wait for direction
UCad - Neutral - wait for direction
UJ - Neutral Bullish - wait for direction.

Forgot to post my results and analysis yesterday. 1 for 3 with two EJ losers for a total of 35 pips and one EU winner for 50 pips.

Analysis: View to buy Euro on dips was correct however, EJ kept going down against me and and took out both of my long positions. Luckily EU profit was greater but only for a net profit of 15 pips.