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My way to highway

  • #481
  • Dec 27, 2017 6:02pm Dec 27, 2017 6:02pm
it is a fundamental reason that shorting usdmxn is high risk.

Mexican Peso is a proxy for latin american economies. when fund managers want to short latin america they short the pesos big time (ie go long usdmxn).
  • #482
  • Dec 31, 2017 7:12am Dec 31, 2017 7:12am
Quoting profitfarmer
Realistic profit expectations I don't think this should be a high % number. Sure enough 100% a month sounds great, or 10% a week sounds great, and going from 200$ to 100k sounds great. Only I don't see myself doing it consistently. If I want to truly trade for a living I need a somewhat consistent profit. Let's say I am pretty satisfied with 2-10% a month, as that beats bank's risk free interest rates handsomely. Of course, profits if consistent, not derived from 1 or few lucky trades. The above 2-10% a month suggest average 0.1-0.5% a day profit....
Hi profitfarmer,
This thread has been great inspiration to me, thanks for your insightful posts . |I was introduced to trading 2 years ago, lost few live accounts as a result of fully not understanding risk management and realistic expectations. Learned my lessons in a hard way. I have a full time job , wants to live from trading in next 5 yrs or so.

Started live account £1000, this month, please find the attached results, i know one month result is nothing but need to start somewhere. Your opinion is highly matters to me. Wishing you very happy new year! more green pips to you!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screencapture-myfxbook-portfolio-rmgasok-2364011-1514725070770.png Size: 475 KB
on a postive roll...
  • #483
  • Dec 31, 2017 8:45am Dec 31, 2017 8:45am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Hi profitfarmer, This thread has been great inspiration to me, thanks for your insightful posts . |I was introduced to trading 2 years ago, lost few live accounts as a result of fully not understanding risk management and realistic expectations. Learned my lessons in a hard way. I have a full time job , wants to live from trading in next 5 yrs or so. Started live account £1000, this month, please find the attached results, i know one month result is nothing but need to start somewhere. Your opinion is highly matters to me. Wishing you very...
Hi Rmg,

thank you for reading my journal, glad if it helps inspire you!
congrats for your results, looks very promising!
it is true that 1 month is not long enough to make conclusions, but even the longest journey stats with a step.

and you had already more than a few of those steps...and looks like heading to the right direction.
(everything green in the stat is sort of right direction).
keep it up, and if anything, remember, to keep it small. one of the disadvantage of smaller account sizes that they dont give the same flexibility sizing trades.
in good times that works as an advantage ( stepping up from 0.01 lot to 0.02 lot is a 100% increase in trade size!!, and there is nothing between really) and bad times, of course, it can end things miserable.

if you plan to go toward full time trading, especially if some point that may involve some prop or other outside assets, i highly recommend to work on building a track record up. for that, the most important is consistency and low drawdown ( less than -15%, preferable even less than -10%!)

wish you good luck, and a Happy New Year!
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #484
  • Dec 31, 2017 8:53am Dec 31, 2017 8:53am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Hi Rmg, thank you for reading my journal, glad if it helps inspire you! congrats for your results, looks very promising! it is true that 1 month is not long enough to make conclusions, but even the longest journey stats with a step. and you had already more than a few of those steps...and looks like heading to the right direction. (everything green in the stat is sort of right direction). keep it up, and if anything, remember, to keep it small. one of the disadvantage of smaller account sizes that they dont give the same flexibility...
Thanks for your immediate response , i will keep update, this is encouraging.
on a postive roll...
  • #485
  • Dec 31, 2017 3:08pm Dec 31, 2017 3:08pm
Thanks for your post's this year>>>>
  • #486
  • Jan 2, 2018 10:11am Jan 2, 2018 10:11am
Wish a Happy and Successful New Year to all!

although i am 'officially' not looking to trade yet, while doing some testing for system#2, couldnt pass to pick up some quick pips on EurUsd short scalps.
nothing major, of course, but a nice soft start for the year with +0.11% gains.

the goal for 2018 is pretty unchanged.
it is still making money trading full time.
right now, due to some upcoming ( and well deserved?) vacations with some friends visiting to Thailand, i think system#2's launch likely will move to beginning of March, or about. currently on demo forward. with 1 non-system trade at the front ( the biggest dd trade itself) the rest seem to do smoothly judging from the short test so far. gains about 9%, vs a very moderate drawdown in comparison.
of course it is all demo in the moment, but once normal trading resumes ( likely 8th Jan) i may start to add some on real account too, if initially just a smaller size, perhaps. just for fun, some stat attached.

system#2 should be to complement the scalping, that for the time remain the main focus, no need to fix/change something that works, right?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forward test system2.png Size: 23 KB
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #487
  • Jan 2, 2018 6:22pm Jan 2, 2018 6:22pm
Very nice Profit Factor there mate!
  • #488
  • Jan 2, 2018 7:33pm Jan 2, 2018 7:33pm
Quoting BSFilter
Very nice Profit Factor there mate!
thanks. it is still test this phase, trying to convert my position trading to a semi-auto arrangement.
likely mid-Jan if not next week things will slowly make way to a live trading account, to see how it holds up. scalping PF is sliding, now bellow 2, and likely will bottom around 1.6-1.8, but with the position trading, the aim is approx 2.5-3.0 or thereabout.
that said, in the end i am a lot more concerned about the max DD% numbers, than the profit factor.
but that also looking good promising in the moment, and will likely enable me, if trading smaller to be able to run 2-4 pairs parallel, if there is multiple opportunities arise.
but one step a time, will see how this week progress the next 2 days.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #489
  • Jan 4, 2018 3:17pm Jan 4, 2018 3:17pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Hi Rmg, thank you for reading my journal, glad if it helps inspire you! congrats for your results, looks very promising! it is true that 1 month is not long enough to make conclusions, but even the longest journey stats with a step. and you had already more than a few of those steps...and looks like heading to the right direction. (everything green in the stat is sort of right direction). keep it up, and if anything, remember, to keep it small. one of the disadvantage of smaller account sizes that they dont give the same flexibility...
Not a good start for me as i lost 25% within 2 days. Micromanaging trades while emotions plays out, risk module out the window, should stick within my risk parameters hereafter. Again, consistent is the key to success here. Confidence gain from my one month results are shattered now.
increasing lot sizes after few losses aka revenge trading cause this. Hope i have learned hard enough from this experience.
on a postive roll...
  • #490
  • Jan 4, 2018 7:34pm Jan 4, 2018 7:34pm
I found that semi robot trading helped me a lot. I just manage the positions after robot opens trades, but still have emotional mood swings. I have same robot running in comparison with me. And guess what the robot is beating me. For example, I would exit a trade or trades if I felt anxious after so many open positions (2%) draw down and if trades are opened for longer than a day. My robot and system allows a 10% draw down. I want to manage the trades discretionary because a robot doesnt know how trade Fundamentals.
  • #491
  • Jan 4, 2018 8:51pm Jan 4, 2018 8:51pm
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Not a good start for me as i lost 25% within 2 days. Micromanaging trades while emotions plays out, risk module out the window, should stick within my risk parameters hereafter. Again, consistent is the key to success here. Confidence gain from my one month results are shattered now. increasing lot sizes after few losses aka revenge trading cause this. Hope i have learned hard enough from this experience.
in a couple of posts i had mentioned equity SL. also that i use -10%.
consistency is very important in one hand, but it also means i have to consistently limit your downside too.
that limiting is done partly by taking smaller position sizes that i may be tempted too sometimes, and taking a equity SL that leaves me room to recover.
it would be very hard to recover a 25% loss unless i start to change my trading. namely the position sizes. as in revenge trade. but then things can go sour to very sour.
i would need +33% to just BE. given my average monthly gains, that could take approx 4 month. i can exist 4 months without income, but the pressure would be huge.
something i try to avoid.
if an equity SL is hit, for that day and likely the next 1-2 days, NO MORE TRADING!
i decided to better to clear head, get over the self beating up, get past the urge of revenge trading or doing something stupid, and get past of the fear of failing.
also get a few setups pass on the chart, so, the whole thing feels like a fresh start.
just last month, the very first day i hit a SL point, right on the 1st of December. ended the day at -7.5%. and it took the next 3 weeks of trading to recover all, and still close the month in a slight profit. even so, my plan was to recover before end of Jan.
of course these numbers entirely depend on the trader.
someone may risk more ( i do also, i have a 2x risk account, obviously it was down -15%)
the point is, the larger the loss, the longer it may take to recover from it. and that opens door to some over trading, over risking, and in general some bad habits most trader has, me too. best to avoid being tempted is to not get myself into a situation as that.

can i get 2 equity SL days in a row? can. never say never.
but likely with the above, i can limit some of the risk.
and with that, i am halfway there to succeed, because i see the statistics of mine, and that says, after a big loss, likely to recover to new equity high before the next big loss. or at least that seem to be the pattern.
in my case, it is likely that after certain point ( %gain, or #days without loss) i am getting little bold. maybe push something little more than i should. maybe take on a position too quickly. it is a chance. but also it is something i can expect and a little prepare for.
even though i am still considering myself to be in the phase to grow my trading capital ( though it is at a level now what in the start of the journal i described as my ideal equity zone for me to be able to make a living from)...i still opt for some periodical withdrawals of equity. not necessarily permanently straight, but away from my active trading account(s). least if i am hit with an equity SL, that wont be from the absolute high ( ie. the absolute max $).

also, often red that in forex, everything can be scaled up.
i used to think that is 100% of the case.
then later i got to believe it isnt, and still holding that belief.
it may be 100% true with money a trader dont care about, like going from 100$ to 200$, or even 1k to 2k...all scales up.
but i think some point along that road a trader start to hit a number, where it start to care about that money.
in my case, i come from simple background, working class. been myself that as well. so money never came easily. and i wasnt grown up in a 1st world, rich country.
the effort to replace a 100-200$ or even 1-2k account is relative easily doable. takes a short time saving, maybe a few months...
but it isnt the case with 10-20-30-50k...
i just cant trade same bold as i would do a couple 100s, because the re-starting re-placing would be not that easy, or prohibitively difficult.
this is also a point as equity grows, when it is becoming increasingly important to realize this, and adjust the goals to stay on the ground of this reality.
the reality that it is OK to blow up a 200$ acct and restart, but not quite OK to blow up a 20k account, because likely cant restart with the same ease. or at all.
and there is another thing, that can apply.
i scalp. mainly. for now.
beyond some position size, the execution start to see more slippage. it is a fact. i am not there to bother me yet, and by slicing up some larger lot entries i can avoid some issues. but on some minor pair had few not too great experiences that lead to learn, and subsequently adjust a little.
so, my point is, it isnt all 100% able to scale up.
not emotionally, not financially, and not technically.
but it is a common belief that is repeated over and over, ( and one i thought true for a while too, in the past).


anyway.
i wish you a full recovery from your loss!
and sorry for the long answer, but i wanted to write up some on the topic, and this morning it just felt right to do!
hope none mind, and some even enjoyed reading it....or had a good sleep from the middle. win-win.

happy trading!
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #492
  • Jan 4, 2018 9:23pm Jan 4, 2018 9:23pm
Quoting PippinUSA150
I found that semi robot trading helped me a lot. I just manage the positions after robot opens trades, but still have emotional mood swings. I have same robot running in comparison with me. And guess what the robot is beating me. For example, I would exit a trade or trades if I felt anxious after so many open positions (2%) draw down and if trades are opened for longer than a day. My robot and system allows a 10% draw down. I want to manage the trades discretionary because a robot doesnt know how trade Fundamentals.
the drawdown is an important aspect for me, the demo forward test i do currently is mainly to try to get a general feel about what to expect.
i have in theory some numbers in my head, but it doesnt hurt to see it in action.
there is fully automatic and semi-automatic position opening options.
for me, it is a factor that i dont need to deal with every moment of its trades, for most part it can be 'left alone'. after all, it is supposed to handle my position trading, and not scalping.
agree, a robot doesnt know fundamentals per se.
but part of the issue can be solved, because programming know news filter.
i also think that fundamentals really come to play on the longer time horizon, maybe weeks of holding time. on the short run, it is mostly technical.
not only, but also on the short run a small retail trader has always less knowledge about real fundamentals than the more established ones. to start with, there is an inferior information flow to tap into....but these are my personal opinions, and i can be very wrong. or not.

so, for the time it is still demo forward, but i am considering to add it to my live account next week for better testing it. although it isnt scalping, likely to get similar numbers. especially as the demo runs with 7$/lot comm., vs. my live has 5.5$/lot comm. rate.

i like your TE, whatever you do with your robot, it is very nice curve, very doable profits, and before some says that 2% a month is too little, no banks of mine paying that 2% even for a year in the moment! it isnt always the highest %gain that is the answer, sometimes it is simple to find means to have the equity$ higher to start with, and then enjoy a decent $gain.

taking (some) emotion swings out from the equation of trading is crucial for the longevity. even when trading manual, it is something to aim for.
and, while i myself never been a fan of EAs, lately coming around some, regarding different trading aspects.
took some time to sink in, that it is always the user of the tool who define the outcome, and not the tool itself.
just like one can use a knife to prepare a meal, or to kill someone...an EA can be also a very useful thing, some form.
so, after many years, always manual, i finally allowed myself to expand a bit in that direction, if not necessarily in full automated ways, but some steps.

happy trading!
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #493
  • Jan 4, 2018 9:55pm Jan 4, 2018 9:55pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} the drawdown is an important aspect for me, the demo forward test i do currently is mainly to try to get a general feel about what to expect. i have in theory some numbers in my head, but it doesnt hurt to see it in action. there is fully automatic and semi-automatic position opening options. for me, it is a factor that i dont need to deal with every moment of its trades, for most part it can be 'left alone'. after all, it is supposed to handle my position trading, and not scalping. agree, a robot doesnt know fundamentals per se. but part...
Ya, I know I felt the same way about EA, robots. Ive avoided them for 17 yrs. Then I finally decided to take a shot at it. Its definitely nice , not having to baby sit the computer screens. I will feel more comfortable once I can establish a 0-10% per month for 1-3 yrs for this EA semi approach.
  • #494
  • Jan 4, 2018 11:19pm Jan 4, 2018 11:19pm
Quoting PippinUSA150
{quote} Ya, I know I felt the same way about EA, robots. Ive avoided them for 17 yrs. Then I finally decided to take a shot at it. Its definitely nice , not having to baby sit the computer screens. I will feel more comfortable once I can establish a 0-10% per month for 1-3 yrs for this EA semi approach.
you seem to be right on track to do that
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #495
  • Jan 4, 2018 11:22pm Jan 4, 2018 11:22pm
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote}consistency is very important in one hand, but it also means i have to consistently limit your downside too. it would be very hard to recover a 25% loss unless i start to change my trading. namely the position sizes.
Hope you had a well deserved good rest PF!, always enjoy your long write ups on risk and MM.

Everyone seem to go gaga over a profitable system and yet few realize the significance of risk management , many are tempted to turn 100$ or 500$ into 6 or 7 digits in a short span of time but often fall pray to their own shortcomings: fear, greed and ego. At some point I contemplated about increasing my position every trade, but since we don't know when we'll hit that losing streak or losing few trades it could very well damage the account leaving a big hole just as much it could double or triple the account in a matter of 2,3 or 5 trades.

It's a matter of luck really. I have been there where I was down -99.9% drawdown, we all know if we've been here long enough after a certain figure of drawdown the probability of recovering is 0%. Knowing that and experiencing it firsthand do I still want to try my luck ? Don't think that would be very wise thing to do , unless I can't cure my gambling tendency - money does strange things to your psyche rich poor old and young but I guess being older is wiser in some cases ? Therefore I think it is essential to keep your mind and body in good shape , routine exercise, meditation or yoga whatever it is exercise your mind and body to not fall prey to your own demons - money and fame exaggerates everything that's within you.

Back to risk management, I remember you saying you don't really care about TP or RR on individual trades and i think it is making a lot of sense to me now, because I assume your net winning trades v net losing trades in $ or pips is calculated from the net, so its cumulative after all. In that scenario I would want to have more winners than my losers (of course that's the ideal situation) and I must minimize the loss as much as I can - browsing your TE I think that's the scheme you operate ? So my question is how and when do you know you're wrong ? from what I have been doing on DAX lately that if get in early enough I can get out with minimal loss as opposed to if wait longer for more confirmation there's a risk of bigger loss if I'm proven wrong. But to do this effectively you really have work on your intuition or skill , experience sure helps.
...
  • #496
  • Edited 4:14am Jan 5, 2018 12:38am | Edited 4:14am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} Back to risk management, I remember you saying you don't really care about TP or RR on individual trades and i think it is making a lot of sense to me now, because I assume your net winning trades v net losing trades in $ or pips is calculated from the net, so its cumulative after all. In that scenario I would want to have more winners than my losers (of course that's the ideal situation) and I must minimize the loss as much as I can - browsing your TE I think that's the scheme you operate ? So my question is how and when do you know you're...
to be honest, number of pips are very over rated! a pip is meaningless without lot size attached to it!
not sure why for many it is still appeal to measure things in pip. should stop that.
in the end $$$ is what you trade for. %gain represent that fine, but ultimately even that is meaningless without the cash behind it.
why?
walk into a store, and see what you can spend there...pips, %, or $...
one can wield 2000 pips gained, if only worth 10$, not much a use.
one can show of with 50% gain for a month, if only worth 50$, not much a use.
and one can have -20 pips, 0.5% gain, and still make more than any of the prior examples....
that is what matters!

i attach a chart here, from the 3rd Jan, it is GbpAud.
a few details:
there is 10 entries. ( the 10th isnt integral part)
apart from initial entry, all the rest is same lot size. there is no fixed grid, there is no fixed TP ( and no actual SL). the red line meaningless, some older area of interest. i would be wise to wait for it though, lol.
how i know when i am wrong?
the price keeps going against me. actually just around entry#3, was close to get out, least partially.
partial close limit the upside, like entry #5-6-7, but it also smooth the downside some, helps with bottom line booking some profit, lowering exposure.
also belongs to the details, that while i havent gained a lot, and i had no hard SL, my downside was not huge, was running into about -1-1.2% max working DD.
now, the R:R...maybe as little as 0.25:1 ( or 1/4th of the risk) on this setup.
not good at all. or is that the truth?
lets look further: %win...lets say that entry #4 a BEish, and count it to the loss...that means 6/10 winner, or 60%.
not impressive. or is it?
then the reality:
i dont trade to impress. most certainly not with the R:R, or the highest %W, and definitely not by number of pips!
so, what about this trade then?
it actually made a few pips, though minimal.
more importantly it made some profit, approx +0.25%.
impressive. not at all.
for some. but i dont trade for some, i trade for myself!
for me, 20 x +0.25% = 5% gain in a month.
BINGO! right in the ballpark.
not if someone trade 100$, not if someone trade 1000$...though it should be the same principle. after all, if things can scale up, they should scale down too!
well, they seem not to...for various reason, like trader's greed, the perception of how little X% on small equity in $, or simple cos the position sizes doesnt have the same flexibility. when one trade 0.01 lot, the next available size is 0.02 lot...a 100% size increase. when at least trading 0.1 lot, the next increment available is 0.11 lot, "only" a 10% increment...and so on.

while i have more winners in this example than losers, the win% itself can be different, equal (50%) or lower, and still make money. one can lose progressive lots. doesnt have to be martingale, exactly. and still be the case. just not open a trade all in. the picture is an example how committing less could help to get out, without the price needing a full recovery to initial entry.
could have opened 1 entry only, with a 'proper' SL, and maybe either stopped out, or still be in a loss at the point where i was out.
ideally i would not need that many entries.
ideally the first entry works great. ( some days i had like 15/15 winners, from single entries, so, does happen).
but trading isnt ideal, not always, doesnt matter how choosy i try to pick an entry.
thus i like to think of entries more as a zone, than a single point.

limiting the loss is important, thus even we talk about -10% equity SL, that i dont mind if in fact is only -9%, or -8%...the less the easier to recover.
basically, if my running drawdown gets past -3-4%, i know i may misjudged something, misread the market, or timed the entry bad...but whatever it is, i am looking for getting out BE/minimal loss, and not profit anymore that point. the priority shift.
another sign that i may be wrong, is the time in trade.
if i scalp, then the preference in average is to be out within 10min, 20min top...beyond that i start to like the trade less and less, even if it is lightly against me.
the longer the trade, the more likely something has changed from what i originally saw a reason to be in.

finally, as you also pointed it, it is practice. a constant work to try to hit the right mix or risk appetite, patience, greed, etc.
every new day is a new battle to fight. algos and ppl are out there wanting to take my money. and i am out there trying to take theirs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GA 03.01..png Size: 32 KB
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #497
  • Jan 5, 2018 4:05am Jan 5, 2018 4:05am
Quoting profitfarmer
if my running drawdown gets past -3-4%, i know i may misjudged something, misread the market, or timed the entry bad...but whatever it is, i am looking for getting out BE/minimal loss
you pretty much explained the psyche of a consistent trader, can't get any more in depth than that although the chart is missing, I got all the points and highlights. Getting at a minimal loss once you're proven wrong seems like a tricky game and needs lots of practice to effectively manage the damage. But in another way, having multiple entries at multiple points I see how it can help to minimize the loss.
...
  • #498
  • Jan 5, 2018 4:13am Jan 5, 2018 4:13am
Quoting Piquant
{quote} you pretty much explained the psyche of a consistent trader, can't get any more in depth than that although the chart is missing, I got all the points and highlights. Getting at a minimal loss once you're proven wrong seems like a tricky game and needs lots of practice to effectively manage the damage. But in another way, having multiple entries at multiple points I see how it can help to minimize the loss.
lol, and NO ONE dare to tell me, that silly profitfarmer forgot to post the chart you talked about as example?!?!
without it, just not the same the post.
my only excuse that today i am not really feeling well, even if it doesnt show much in the long writing today, hopefully, only missed that chart.
will attach now
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #499
  • Jan 5, 2018 5:08am Jan 5, 2018 5:08am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} in a couple of posts i had mentioned equity SL. also that i use -10%. consistency is very important in one hand, but it also means i have to consistently limit your downside too. that limiting is done partly by taking smaller position sizes that i may be tempted too sometimes, and taking a equity SL that leaves me room to recover. it would be very hard to recover a 25% loss unless i start to change my trading. namely the position sizes. as in revenge trade. but then things can go sour to very sour. i would need +33% to just BE. given my...
Never mind a long reply, your words comes from your heart.
As of my risk module, draw down shouldn't exceed 5% of equity.
Maximum 2% loss per day, on a single trade 1%, leverage limited to 1:10 as i trade smaller lots multiple pairs, everything was under control last month.
A good trader is who can follow his own rules at all the time.
I was raised up as same as you, i come from third world country.
i wants to prove myself that i can consistently squeeze little profits every month without risking much from this small account, than later add more funds when confident and stats build up. discipline is the issue here. As you said , i should have stop trading when equity sl got hit.
thanks for your detailed reply.

More power to you!!
Thanks for
on a postive roll...
  • #500
  • Jan 5, 2018 9:29am Jan 5, 2018 9:29am
it is one of those days...
looks like let myself shaken out from EurCad position, but the news did surprise me once again with the move, and being little early meant that observing the -10% DD rule, i could not go as freely with the sizes as i wish i could.
being Friday, on the rebound chose to get out of the position, bit premature, i am afraid, but seems like my head isnt fully in the game.
mentioned earlier i was/am not too well today...misjudged just how much it is true.
the lesson, however good a trade looks like, sometimes the right decision in to pass.

the overall loss: -2.97%
not the end of the world.
i sure will have some work to do if want to make the month positive. which i do.

of course it is bugging me now seeing the price as i type, but as a trader have to make decisions, for good or bad.
my decision was today that as briefly seem 9% DD at worst, maybe a better decision to book -3%, than risk to head back to -9%...
i would say that isnt a too good deal. not on a friday, not with relative high average price.

well, on the positive side, least have a well defined goal to do next week!

happy weekend!
there is always, always another trade!!
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