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The Swamp

  • #13,601
  • Dec 28, 2017 4:24am Dec 28, 2017 4:24am
Quoting micho
first target hit 1.1900 and next target 1.1945 stop loss at break even
third target 1.1990, stop stays at BE at 1.1871
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #13,602
  • Edited 6:49am Dec 28, 2017 5:32am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} why you have to be right all the time..I could not believe this plays out as you said....+....
nothing to do with me. the numbers were adding, not subtracting. it took out the bias, month close was a higher close. the resistance near and above 1911 was 1939. if today closes above 1939 its not bearish. Above 1939 on Friday close is strong. its unlikely 2017 will close in 2016 wicks. making it not only bullish, but possible moon landing bullish. this candle took a year to make, so the news around is mostly noise. the closes are higher despite the bearish eu news.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,603
  • Dec 28, 2017 6:28am Dec 28, 2017 6:28am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Cool, agreed. Rest is timing etc...
Maybe short 135.3 towards 132.8
Maybe look for squeeze.
  • #13,604
  • Dec 28, 2017 6:33am Dec 28, 2017 6:33am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} Maybe short 135.3 towards 132.8 Maybe look for squeeze.
135.7x more likely; however, not in hurry to get in short. I'll wait for a larger short squeeze.
For now set a pending at 135.72, I may change it or cancel it depending on PA.
UJ is slow and isn't in a down move/momentum yet, and EU gaining momentum likely to break-out etc etc.
Will be watching closely, thanks for reminding.
  • #13,605
  • Dec 28, 2017 6:50am Dec 28, 2017 6:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} when a candle closes below the previous candles wick. it's often extremely strong sign. if nothing changes, 2017 will have a candle like described. this candle has been headed this way all year. I doubt it will change much directional except shallow dips. i find it hard to believe it wont reach 1.2164 once 1.210x lets. i got a missed norm at the place it dropped in 2014
I know that it's a fact that what's true on one timeframe is true on all TFs. So my question:

  1. Is that true only/mostly on big timeframes: yearly/6months/Quarter/1month candles? or all TFs?
  2. And is there any specific way to validate that statement and the strength of that signal candle?

  • #13,606
  • Dec 28, 2017 6:52am Dec 28, 2017 6:52am
if eu gets a 1/2 close (00:30) above 1949. that could be bullish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,607
  • Dec 28, 2017 6:57am Dec 28, 2017 6:57am
Quoting ws121
{quote} I know that it's a fact that what's true on one timeframe is true on all TFs. So my question: Is that true only/mostly on big timeframes: yearly/6months/Quarter/1month candles? or all TFs? And is there any specific way to validate that statement and the strength of that signal candle?
its not up to me to validate. i gave an examples a few times. the last few days one was posted. validation is up to the reader.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,608
  • Dec 28, 2017 6:58am Dec 28, 2017 6:58am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} usd chart does look ugly...it has a lot of to do with thin liquidity these days...it is testing daily demand zone 92.90.,, overlapping with weekly demand zone 92.87-92.50..... which should be tough to break before volume comes back after Jan 2nd...
usd is still testing the overlapping daily and weekly demand zone 92.90-92.50, a strong and critical level, either make or break it...if usd loses this level, next daily demand zone is 92 overlapping with weekly demand zone 91.79-91...

USDX On 12/28/2017 at 8am est. BLDR MTF system update :
H1, Downtrend, Trend stop at H1 close 93.12, Running Period: 60 hours
H4, downtrend, Trend stop at H4 close 93.44, Running Period: 58 x H4
Daily, downtrend, Trend stop at day close 94.11, Running Period: 26 days
Weekly, downtrend, Trend stop at week close 95.02, Running Period: 36 weeks

( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action)
  • #13,609
  • Dec 28, 2017 6:58am Dec 28, 2017 6:58am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} 135.7x more likely; however, not in hurry to get in short. I'll wait for a larger short squeeze. For now set a pending at 135.72, I may change it or cancel it depending on PA. UJ is slow and isn't in a down move/momentum yet, and EU gaining momentum likely to break-out etc etc. Will be watching closely, thanks for reminding.
Its a target but also an abcd pattern. on the monthly charts you will see its a price action level.
I am not telling you what to do. just found some confluence. I will have to try a short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily.png Size: 20 KB
  • #13,610
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:08am Dec 28, 2017 7:08am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} Its a target but also an abcd pattern. on the monthly charts you will see its a price action level. I am not telling you what to do. just found some confluence. I will have to try a short. {image}
Great, go a head.
Good luck
  • #13,611
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:09am Dec 28, 2017 7:09am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} Its a target but also an abcd pattern. on the monthly charts you will see its a price action level. I am not telling you what to do. just found some confluence. I will have to try a short. {image}
this is the perfect moment.
mt4 sais its about 24h from now.
a friday

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH4.png Size: 22 KB
  • #13,612
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:09am Dec 28, 2017 7:09am
Quoting ws121
{quote} I know that it's a fact that what's true on one timeframe is true on all TFs. So my question: Is that true only/mostly on big timeframes: yearly/6months/Quarter/1month candles? or all TFs? And is there any specific way to validate that statement and the strength of that signal candle?
its near year's end. well above 2016 wicks.. nov wick at 1960.. lets see where 2018 rolls in.. the cluster wick at 2091. 1939 type numbers are sometimes hard to close above/below.. the last one was 1706 ish on the drop to 1553 fairly quick. on a smaller tf closing 00:30 + 1949 would be a higher close, that should help the day with 1939. the day could help the week with 1939. probably best to stay away from shorts with 00:30 close 1949+
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,613
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:23am Dec 28, 2017 7:23am
I am not sure how far this Euro can run for the year end closing before my tomorrow update,

since it will have 88 H1 running hours this time tomorrow, Normally, it would have 85% chance to reverse H1 trend tomorrow...but I am not so confident this time of the year due to the year end flows in illiquid market condition...

Euro On 12/28/2017 at 8am est.. BLDR MTF system update :
H1, Uptrend, Trend stop at H1 close 1884, Running Period: 64 hours
H4, Uptrend, Trend stop at H4 close 1843, Running Period: 59 x H4
Daily, uptrend, Trend stop at day close 1724, Running Period: 25 days

( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action
  • #13,614
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:25am Dec 28, 2017 7:25am
love how the cad is also strenghtening, maybe it has to do with the oil but i dont know fundamentals
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #13,615
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:29am Dec 28, 2017 7:29am
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 26 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,616
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:34am Dec 28, 2017 7:34am
just possibilities.... 1.237x before weekly retrace, then 1.32 before monthly retrace, or just retrace from here. all possible
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #13,617
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:36am Dec 28, 2017 7:36am
Quoting gatorinla
. {image}
this chart scores 10 out of 10 for clarity.
  • #13,618
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:38am Dec 28, 2017 7:38am
Quoting gatorinla
. {image}
according to Bloomberg...this year, dollar has biggest loss against Euro since 2003, ...that is 14 years ago....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollar gloom.jpg Size: 40 KB
  • #13,619
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:50am Dec 28, 2017 7:50am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} according to Bloomberg...this year, dollar has biggest loss against Euro since 2003, ...that is 14 years ago.... {image}
fundi wise,, yes we all agree rate raise means stronger dollar. visual wise, it's not adding up on the usd. it could just be a anomaly, where anticipation of the tax cut to u.s. businesses have held back on bringing usd home till tax cut takes effect. while others buy euros as a hedge in their future transactions in anticipation of a rising usd in 2018. Just speculating here. visual wise, the eu is climbing and usd falling. no different than a stock price. it rises and falls on peoples opinion of it or any stocks value. in 2018 if the eu is still rising.. its the stock value.

chart wise on the drop, notice each forward month closes below the previous wick
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 40 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,620
  • Dec 28, 2017 8:06am Dec 28, 2017 8:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its near year's end. well above 2016 wicks.. nov wick at 1960.. lets see where 2018 rolls in.. the cluster wick at 2091. 1939 type numbers are sometimes hard to close above/below.. the last one was 1706 ish on the drop to 1553 fairly quick. on a smaller tf closing 00:30 + 1949 would be a higher close, that should help the day with 1939. the day could help the week with 1939. probably best to stay away from shorts with 00:30 close 1949+
its getting close enough to take a stab, next 00:30 close in 23 min
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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