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Simple Mathematics (Try Now)

  • #61
  • Dec 25, 2017 10:19am Dec 25, 2017 10:19am
Quoting mw108
{quote} There is no error. It just halts suddenly and never continues. Do you have any loops or something going on when opening a new position? https://youtu.be/lC1wcx_ywvc
oh ok.. i got you point.
I've remove these code, and backtest should work smoothly.

Inserted Code
void TickData()
{
   //while(IsTradeContextBusy()) Sleep(1);
   //while(!RefreshRates()) Sleep(1);
}

...and the backtest result, still need fine tuning.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 BBE.ex4   19 KB | 469 downloads
  • #62
  • Dec 25, 2017 10:38am Dec 25, 2017 10:38am
Ok, works now. Thanks.

But what rules is the EA following?

Quote
Rules
when price
up exceeds both upper bb and upper Envelope we short.
when price down exceeds both lower bb and lower envlope we long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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No Short entries, even though Candle was > Env & BB
Attached Image

Attached Image


No Long entries, even though Candle was < Env & BB
Attached Image

Attached Image


But results are pretty similar to the other EA:
UJ, 1st Jan 2017 - 08th Dec 2017, 99.9% Tick Data
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I really wonder how Noor16 got these results with the other EA:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot7.png Size: 34 KB
  • #63
  • Dec 25, 2017 9:30pm Dec 25, 2017 9:30pm
Quoting mw108
Ok, works now. Thanks. But what rules is the EA following? {quote} {image} No Short entries, even though Candle was > Env & BB {image} {image} No Long entries, even though Candle was < Env & BB {image} {image} But results are pretty similar to the other EA: UJ, 1st Jan 2017 - 08th Dec 2017, 99.9% Tick Data {image} I really wonder how Noor16 got these results with the other EA: {image}
because he is using 5 spread setting in his backtest ... and that makes a lot of difference
  • #65
  • Dec 25, 2017 11:33pm Dec 25, 2017 11:33pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Mate, your giving it away... sshh!!

"why shhhhhh"??

The way i see it is that a direction change is eminent,

its simple and straight forward to usel

"Bloody good job"

so the more we have supporting this change the better in my view,

What do you think your brokers do ?????????

  • #66
  • Dec 26, 2017 12:54am Dec 26, 2017 12:54am
[quote=Dingoman-two;10620003]{quote} "why shhhhhh"?? The way i see it is that a direction change is eminent, its simple and straight forward to usel "Bloody good job" so the more we have supporting this change the better in my view, What do you think your brokers do ????????? [/quote

I was quoting the secret formula, bit like pirates code....those in the know, know.....!!

As for the method predicting a change in direction..........., same chance as every other method bandied around the forums....pot luck.

M.
  • #67
  • Dec 26, 2017 1:51am Dec 26, 2017 1:51am
I don't understand the choice of thread title, or why you're wasting your time on this system
  • #68
  • Dec 26, 2017 2:32am Dec 26, 2017 2:32am
stoploss 25
take profit 8.

The TL and SL are backwards in this system. You're risking 25 pips to get 8? Doesn't make sense. This "system" is a loser.
  • #70
  • Dec 26, 2017 11:17am Dec 26, 2017 11:17am
Quoting Noor16
{quote} If u got at a time 9-15 tp then 1-2 SL not a big Issue .
Are you sure? Let's calculate a litle bit:

You say, won 9 times is not big issue if lose 2 times. Really, in this segment not big issue... but...

(9x8) - (2x25) = 72 - 50 = 22pip

Not big issue? After two lose trade you loss more then 66% of your profit. And it's not big issue? And what happening if you lose the next also? You have negative profit.

Your strategy is demand that you win 8 times from 10 trade.
Win 8 (8x8 = 64)
Lose 2 (2x25 = 50)

And your gross profit is only 14 pip! And of course it's a positive outcome, but all brokers have spreads. Your 14pip is not real yet, you win only 1 or 2 pip or nothing. And all of this you need to win more then 80% in all of trades. If your statistic is worst from this you loose your all money.

---

Dont miss understand me. I don't care how would you like to trade I only want to know what do you think why will work this trading style? Maybe have something in the background what I didn't see.
  • #71
  • Dec 26, 2017 5:40pm Dec 26, 2017 5:40pm
To quote an old saying - "there's none so blind as those who will not see".
  • #72
  • Dec 27, 2017 6:24am Dec 27, 2017 6:24am
Quoting vinpiper
Added (timed) Trailing Stop (updates TS every 1s in profit) Added Break Even. Modified it so that it only takes 1 entry per Candle. But still losing money left and right. This means do the opposite and you have great winning system. Merry Christmas!!!
Not so. If you have a system that loses example 75% of the time, reversing the signal does not equate a 75% winning system. I though the same a while ago, then reversed signals to test my theory. My result was +/- 15% win rate...still didn't make the EA profitable. Check it with this EA if you don't think its so.
Best, Josh
  • #73
  • Dec 27, 2017 6:46am Dec 27, 2017 6:46am
it's obvious this mathematics is wrong from the word go; the risk involve is not acceptable or is there something i'm missing?I will rather call it, the simple mathematics of losing cash!
  • #74
  • Dec 27, 2017 7:48am Dec 27, 2017 7:48am
Quoting JoshuaHope
{quote} Not so. If you have a system that loses example 75% of the time, reversing the signal does not equate a 75% winning system. I though the same a while ago, then reversed signals to test my theory. My result was +/- 15% win rate...still didn't make the EA profitable. Check it with this EA if you don't think its so. Best, Josh
Yes. It isn't that simple. I tried it and the result is still very bad.

This system as presented by Noor16 is definately not profitable and the pictures he posted from the EA are obviously fake.

I already asked him 2x here and 1x via PM to share the settings and the pair he used for the backtest to achieve these results, but so far he didn't bother to answer.

Why didn't he answer? Most likely because he knows that the system is garbage. But he still posts pictures of an EA which achieved 550% gains in a year with only 21% drawdown, especially when he trades 1.00 lot, as shown in post #46 and uses 5 points (not pips!) as fixed spread, which is completely unrealistic. This is very dishonest.

I let 3 MT4 instances run the last two days in Optimization mode for each of the pairs he suggested, EURGBP, EURCHF and USDJPY. EURGBP and USDJPY did not produce one single positive result of 1280 runs.
However, EURCHF produced a few positive results. BUT: 1) All had high drawdown of >40%, 2) tested with non-quality historical data and 3) if you just changed one parameter (like SL 8 pips instead of 9) the whole house of cards collapsed and killed the account.

Illusionary backtest of EURCHF. Impressive, isn't it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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However, the same backtest run with the same parameters on real market conditions (99.9% quality tick data, real spread, real slippage).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Death of account in 3 months.

Long story short: While thinking outside the box is helpful sometimes, it is a waste of time in this case. Don't bother.
And Noor16 seems to be very dishonest because he pretends to have a very profitable system.
  • #75
  • Dec 27, 2017 8:11am Dec 27, 2017 8:11am
Here comes another one on EURCHF ... Fasten your seatbelts!

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$16.000 profits! So amazing!

... Not so much if you put it VS real market conditions:

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Account blow up in less than 1 month.
  • #76
  • Dec 28, 2017 2:48am Dec 28, 2017 2:48am
What is treasure for one person is trash for others. Those who still have problem with the system should keep trying
Make all mistakes in demo and rain in pips in live account
9jatrader All Time Return: -66.1%
  • #77
  • Dec 28, 2017 6:18am Dec 28, 2017 6:18am
sume advice , and that comes from a top 2% Mfukker = sheeesszzzzzzz
Attached Image
da n0o0b + $hit_Disturber
  • #78
  • Dec 28, 2017 6:28am Dec 28, 2017 6:28am
Quoting pipsy7
sume advice , and that comes from a top 2% Mfukker = sheeesszzzzzzz {image}
may be he knows what we don't.
  • #79
  • Dec 28, 2017 7:19am Dec 28, 2017 7:19am
Quoting 9jatrader
What is treasure for one person is trash for others. Those who still have problem with the system should keep trying
You can't ignore the math. 0 < 1. No matter how hard you try.
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