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The Swamp

  • #13,501
  • Dec 26, 2017 10:48am Dec 26, 2017 10:48am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} but gator, this has been the case since forever.... economic growth has been in essence the use of money supply. China realized this and is now playing catchup... and tax payers will always be the one having to carry the load, but whats changed?? its been like this forever... honestly dont care much about increased borrowing, increased money supply... thats how capitalism worked... and even China is getting on board with this game. because austerity never works.,.. look at eurozone.... left in limbo from bullshit bureaucrats from germany...
remove your political views. its not the place.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,502
  • Dec 26, 2017 10:56am Dec 26, 2017 10:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} remove your political views. its not the place.
done, post removed.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,503
  • Dec 26, 2017 10:58am Dec 26, 2017 10:58am
not a minute too soon..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,504
  • Dec 26, 2017 11:02am Dec 26, 2017 11:02am
believe it or not, they did have an economy before easy money. it worked, people saved for their future. now people spend using their children's future as collateral. Ponzi schemes end one way.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,505
  • Dec 26, 2017 11:04am Dec 26, 2017 11:04am
Quoting gatorinla
believe it or not, they did have an economy before easy money. it worked, people saved for their future. now people spend using their children's future as collateral. Ponzi schemes end one way.
but im curious what if the entire country or even the globe is a ponzi scheme....
i guess its only gona mean we keep the bucket rolling....

or have we figured out how to sell our debt to martians?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,506
  • Dec 26, 2017 11:15am Dec 26, 2017 11:15am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} but im curious what if the entire country or even the globe is a ponzi scheme.... i guess its only gona mean we keep the bucket rolling.... or have we figured out how to sell our debt to martians?
all dynasties end when the peasants rush the castle. the middle class at some point will get tired of bailing out banks. each time the elite, have come out better than before. those shiny beads, are very expensive. of course it's a ponzi scheme, you always need a buyer or it all crashes.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,507
  • Dec 26, 2017 11:17am Dec 26, 2017 11:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} all dynasties end when the peasants rush the castle. the middle class at some point will get tired of bailing out banks. each time the elite, have come out better than before. those shiny beads, are very expensive.
i dunno.... last time we saw how ineffective occupy wallstreet was...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,508
  • Dec 26, 2017 11:33am Dec 26, 2017 11:33am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i dunno.... last time we saw how ineffective occupy wallstreet was...
watch what happens next. we had 20 years of housing refinancing. people have changed habits mostly. like my parents who lived through the great depression. generational wise many are less likely to use their homes for a piggy bank. much less refinancing twice a year like before. that cash cow that moved the economy in the past, is gone. with a rise in interest rates that will dampen it some more. you have about 10.5 trillion usd in circulation. of the 1.5 trillion to be added, it's about 10% of that (borrowed tax cut) to dilute usd over the 10 years. Unless people start borrowing again on their houses, I dont see the rosy skies pushing the ponzi..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,509
  • Dec 26, 2017 12:41pm Dec 26, 2017 12:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} watch what happens next. we had 20 years of housing refinancing. people have changed habits mostly. like my parents who lived through the great depression. generational wise many are less likely to use their homes for a piggy bank. much less refinancing twice a year like before. that cash cow that moved the economy in the past, is gone. with a rise in interest rates that will dampen it some more. you have about 10.5 trillion usd in circulation. of the 1.5 trillion to be added, it's about 10% of that (borrowed tax cut) to dilute usd over...
if people's habits have changed from the 2008 crash. it would likely show up in the lack of inflation. kinda like what's happening with inflation. kinda like whats evident in interest rates slow to rise. if people's habits have changed, the value of housing may be less likely to rise. Along with everything that goes with that demand and job wise. plus more automation to come.

the first industry to be hurt w/o a rise in interest demand is the banks. the industry to suffer most in a stagnation of housing prices or decline is the banks. the industry most leveraged to housing prices is the banks.

just saying, the middle class picks up the tab.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,510
  • Dec 26, 2017 12:49pm Dec 26, 2017 12:49pm
''Inflation''
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FED, look what you've done.
  • #13,511
  • Dec 26, 2017 12:58pm Dec 26, 2017 12:58pm
Quoting edyraper
''Inflation'' {image} FED, look what you've done.
to pay for vietnam nixon got us off the gold standard.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,512
  • Dec 26, 2017 1:01pm Dec 26, 2017 1:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} to pay for vietnam nixon got us off the gold standard.
And things got out of control...
  • #13,513
  • Dec 26, 2017 1:06pm Dec 26, 2017 1:06pm
Quoting edyraper
''Inflation'' {image} FED, look what you've done.
u got a little hook at the end, it's crossed the red dotted line atm.

since the 1970ies recessions start with a spike in oil..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,514
  • Dec 26, 2017 1:08pm Dec 26, 2017 1:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} u got a little hook at the end, it's crossed the red dotted line atm. since the 1970ies recessions start with a spike in oil.. {image}
That is ''deflation''.
  • #13,515
  • Dec 26, 2017 1:19pm Dec 26, 2017 1:19pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} That is ''deflation''.
something is up. if its deflation and home values drop. rates are already so low. they have little room to drop rates to stabilize price. it can not go on forever.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,516
  • Dec 26, 2017 1:25pm Dec 26, 2017 1:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} something is up. if its deflation and home values drop. rates are already so low. they have little room to drop rates to stabilize price. it can not go on forever.
This system can't go forever. There is so much wrong with the current system. But before going bust the things usually peak.
Inflation going to peak somewhere in the near future.
Quoting Ken A
You will know when a jug of milk cost $10,000
This old guy knows something...
  • #13,517
  • Dec 26, 2017 1:44pm Dec 26, 2017 1:44pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} This system can't go forever. There is so much wrong with the current system. But before going bust the things usually peak. Inflation going to peak somewhere in the near future. {quote} This old guy knows something...
since the 1972/73 oil spike was a good outlier. now the u.s. produces and exports it may be less noticeable or the spike may be mild. 9/11/2001 oils was under 20$.. dont know now.. with u.s. exporting.. 62$ may be on the high side today. 147 was a 700% increase. up until then.. the spikes were much tamer.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,518
  • Dec 26, 2017 1:51pm Dec 26, 2017 1:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} since the 1972/73 oil spike was a good outlier. now the u.s. produces and exports it may be less noticeable or the spike may be mild. 9/11/2001 oils was under 20$.. dont know now.. with u.s. exporting.. 62$ may be on the high side today. 147 was a 700% increase. up until then.. the spikes were much tamer.
Less noticeable. Oil market is dead, energy might not be a concern in near future, techs are developing.
What is your take?
  • #13,519
  • Dec 26, 2017 1:57pm Dec 26, 2017 1:57pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Less noticeable. Oil market is dead, energy might not be a concern in near future, techs are developing. What is your take?
i put all my money in 2 sided toilet paper. you get twice the usage, out of a single roll.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,520
  • Dec 26, 2017 2:04pm Dec 26, 2017 2:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i put all my money in 2 sided toilet paper. you get twice the usage, out of a single roll.
Is this hedging?
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