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The Swamp

  • #13,481
  • Dec 26, 2017 8:35am Dec 26, 2017 8:35am
ej levels
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  • #13,482
  • Edited 9:02am Dec 26, 2017 8:50am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting Boulder
After staying net short Dollar index since 7/25/2017, institutions start net long Dollar on 12/19/2017 {image}
its probably detrimental to trade on hope. the raise of interest rates looks to have the fundis covered for usd bulls.. chart wise making 95.xx earlier this year could bring 86.xx again. pattern wise 81xx again. this is just based on normal pattern with closes as a catalyst for direction. these have had time to absorb the anticipation of future fed raises. the raises are not so much unknown. yet the pa closes have weakened the usd. something is wrong.. 2017 has a bearish engulfing candle. with some anticipating 3 to 4 rate raises. it's not a secret. Usd bulls need to get off the pot.. but friday was a new week close lower.. still time to reverse, it would have to be an astronomical one to erase this.

anything under the 2016 candle is wick. it does have support there,, the eu is more bullish because its candle is above the wicks..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,483
  • Dec 26, 2017 9:00am Dec 26, 2017 9:00am
Im going short eurusd here around 1.1870
stop at 1.1930

target will see how it goes.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,484
  • Dec 26, 2017 9:07am Dec 26, 2017 9:07am
Quoting fxtyrant
Im going short eurusd here around 1.1870 stop at 1.1930 target will see how it goes.
i am not shorting the eu.. but the trade you just took could be the best trade of next year, this close to year's end. the reward greater than the risk..
its still against trend to me.. i am still long, but see the potential in that short.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,485
  • Dec 26, 2017 9:11am Dec 26, 2017 9:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} its probably detrimental to trade on hope. the raise of interest rates looks to have the fundis covered for usd bulls.. chart wise making 95.xx earlier this year could bring 86.xx again. pattern wise 81xx again. this is just based on normal pattern with closes as a catalyst for direction. these have had time to absorb the anticipation of future fed raises. the raises are not so much unknown. yet the pa closes have weakened the usd. something is wrong.. 2017 has a bearish engulfing candle. with some anticipating 3 to 4 rate raises. it's not...
Gator, i agree with your early part on trading on hope for the rising interesting rate..I have a different view on chart wise.. since weekly downtrend stop is 95.02, if it can close above 95 on close, all fundis will jump in for longs.. this weekly downtrend was started on 4/23/2017, 8 months as of today.. its due for trend change soon..
the previous weekly uptrend ran 9 months then reversed..
  • #13,486
  • Dec 26, 2017 9:20am Dec 26, 2017 9:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am not shorting the eu.. but the trade you just took could be the best trade of next year, this close to year's end. the reward greater than the risk.. its still against trend to me.. i am still long, but see the potential in that short.
Thanks gator. Actually its the commodity currencies like AUDUSD thats baffling me.... was in short but stops taken out already.
doing my post trade reviews makes me wonder if the lack of retracement lower on audusd is a consequence of year end institutional flow buying into AUD for the rollover interests
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,487
  • Dec 26, 2017 9:21am Dec 26, 2017 9:21am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} if I am a gambler, i would buy that 10k dip...it just went 10.4K.. someone placed a million dollar bet on a call option for 50K strike price Dec 2018 bitcoin the other day.... I love this chart for valuation and time..I like to share.. we can put what we feel about bitcoin, euro, USD,, stock market in phases.. {image}
I didn't have a way (otherwise I would) to buy bitcoin that day when it dropped to 10K some.. now almost 16K again, i just notice...
  • #13,488
  • Dec 26, 2017 9:31am Dec 26, 2017 9:31am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Gator, i agree with your early part on trading on hope for the rising interesting rate..I have a different view on chart wise.. since weekly downtrend stop is 95.02, if it can close above 95 on close, all fundis will jump in for longs.. this weekly downtrend was started on 4/23/2017, 8 months as of today.. its due for trend change soon.. the previous weekly uptrend ran 9 months then reversed..
it's always a gamble. i am not comfortable trading against fundis. So i dont disagree on that part.

look at the drop from 2014 on a month chart.. on the way down most looked for a bounce.. notice the candle wicks, and the following month's closes.. eu may do that in 2017 on a year tf. remember 1706 was normal. that wick high stopped that drop more than once. but on a much larger tf than the 2014 drop months are. the information about rate raises are already known. pa stopped last week just above the spot of the last raise.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,489
  • Dec 26, 2017 9:38am Dec 26, 2017 9:38am
merry christmas guys
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #13,490
  • Dec 26, 2017 9:42am Dec 26, 2017 9:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it's always a gamble. i am not comfortable trading against fundis. So i dont disagree on that part. look at the drop from 2014 on a month chart.. on the way down most looked for a bounce.. notice the candle wicks, and the following month's closes.. eu may do that in 2017 on a year tf. remember 1706 was normal. that wick high stopped that drop more than once. but on a much larger tf than the 2014 drop months are. the information about rate raises are already known. pa stopped last week just above the spot of the last raise.
I learned that not trade against the institutions..below is what I have tracked their positions and E/U prices for this year..
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  • #13,491
  • Dec 26, 2017 9:48am Dec 26, 2017 9:48am
between 1712 and 1874 wicks. 2014 close 1.21ish near 2017 high..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,492
  • Dec 26, 2017 9:52am Dec 26, 2017 9:52am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Thanks gator. Actually its the commodity currencies like AUDUSD thats baffling me.... was in short but stops taken out already. doing my post trade reviews makes me wonder if the lack of retracement lower on audusd is a consequence of year end institutional flow buying into AUD for the rollover interests
w/o any proof.. to me a country is like a stock. you want to invest in stocks with good leadership. if one sees a company is not being run by a stable ceo and board. you may want to put your money elsewhere. if enough investors do this. your stock prices fall. even if the board is increasing dividends. Its not a good sign for ones stock price, If as the board increases dividends on one hand, and issuing new stock with the other hand.

equating to raising rates, while issuing 1.5 trillion in debt.

a classic shell game is borrowing money, to give as a tax break. its not a tax break if you borrow the money. its just a loan that has to be repaid.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,493
  • Edited 10:18am Dec 26, 2017 10:00am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} w/o any proof.. to me a country is like a stock. you want to invest in stocks with good leadership. if one sees a company is not being run by a stable ceo and board. you may want to put your money elsewhere.
I know you don't like T, I am not fond of his personality either ... ignore all those politics.., we just look at economic data point.. we now at least see some and mostly positive data news.. not like old time, i just remember I was so frustrated we never beat anything...GDP <3% for many years..always miss numbers..
  • #13,494
  • Dec 26, 2017 10:04am Dec 26, 2017 10:04am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I know you don't like T, I am not fond of his personality either ... ignore all those politics.., we just looking at economic data point.. we now at least see some and mostly positive data news.. not like old time, i just remember I was so frustrated we never beat anything...always miss the numbers..
economic wise, if i borrow a $ and give it to you. your happy with me. but what if i give you a dollar, and you find out you now owe that dollar + interest?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,495
  • Dec 26, 2017 10:08am Dec 26, 2017 10:08am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I know you don't like T, I am not fond of his personality either ... ignore all those politics.., we just looking at economic data point.. we now at least see some and mostly positive data news.. not like old time, i just remember I was so frustrated we never beat anything...GDP <3% for many years..always miss numbers..
i lived through 2 banking crashes. i was fortunate enough to have started with nothing, and made money on both. both had banks closing and required bailouts. both were after government borrowing money for tax cuts. in this particular case it may be worse.than the eighties and 2008. in this case unlike the others. interest rates are rising. so the time may be condensed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,496
  • Dec 26, 2017 10:20am Dec 26, 2017 10:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i lived through 2 banking crashes. i was fortunate enough to have started with nothing, and made money on both. both had banks closing and required bailouts. both were after government borrowing money for tax cuts. in this particular case it may be worse.than the eighties and 2008. in this case unlike the others. interest rates are rising. so the time may be condensed.
Interest rates on the rise alone is not enough evidence of a correction in the financial markets, im actually more concerned by the 10 year 2 year spread in treasury yields....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,497
  • Dec 26, 2017 10:32am Dec 26, 2017 10:32am
Inserted Video
  • #13,498
  • Dec 26, 2017 10:38am Dec 26, 2017 10:38am
Quoting edyraper
https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0
to sum it all up... Global economy is driven by Spending.... and sadly more spending can only be achieved by increased debt.....

so really theres no point in complaining about rising debt... eventually it will collapse and then create another record high in debt in a few years.... thats the only way the world economy is still growing at 2-3% per annum.

And what Ray Dalio also mentioned is how to time the market when a correction is about to happen.... all financial crisis has some form of characteristics where Liquidity is Drained. and because less money in the economy means less transaction done globally....
so what drains liquidity??

rising interest rates,
rate curve backwardation means institutions pulling money out short term in favour of future addition.

but one thing is for certain... capitalism favours the rich, no matter what.... because in order for money to make more money without it being a zero sum game, the only ways is to increase the available money in the market for market participants to benefit from it....

otherwise.... if the central banks are not printing money. why would individuals like warren buffet invest his money if theres nothing to be gained?? as well as chumps like me....

only problem of capitalism is the income inequality part, which a progressive tax system only does at best to alleviate the situation, however its the fact
take taxation aside...

if central banks were to print enough for the economy where each individual is going to get 100% return...

Warren buffet with his 1billion USD gains another 1 billion USD.
however
Poor John with his 100 USD gains another 100 USD....

Sadly price of groceries is the same for both John and Warren, but because it eats into more of John's despensible income... thats how the income inequality effect starts....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #13,499
  • Dec 26, 2017 10:46am Dec 26, 2017 10:46am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} but gator, this has been the case since forever.... economic growth has been in essence the use of money supply. China realized this and is now playing catchup... and tax payers will always be the one having to carry the load, but whats changed?? its been like this forever... honestly dont care much about increased borrowing, increased money supply... thats how capitalism worked... and even China is getting on board with this game. because austerity never works.,.. look at eurozone.... left in limbo from bullshit bureaucrats from germany...
capitolsim worked fine for 200 years before. what you see as "always has been" is fairly new. i am not debating on whats good or not good. trading wise the pattern of the eighties and 2000 have lead to a banking crash. i intend on cashing in on it. this isn't the place for politics.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #13,500
  • Dec 26, 2017 10:48am Dec 26, 2017 10:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} capitolsim worked fine for 200 years before. what you see as "always has been" is fairly new. i am not debating on whats good or not good. trading wise the pattern of the eighties and 2000 have lead to a banking crash. i intend on cashing in on it. this isn't the place for politics.
if anything from what i wrote.... can be easily summarised as....

"So what... does it make me money?"

so im with you on the banking crash, and ill be ready for it. up or down, doesnt matter just matters to me is making a profit whichever the direction.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
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