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Simple Daily Trend Reversal Trading System

  • #1,481
  • Dec 22, 2017 7:43am Dec 22, 2017 7:43am
Here is a good example of why I changed the ZigZag look back to 50 instead of 10. Because the pair took its time retesting after the first MA 15 break, You may have been stopped out on two occasions, if your stop was tight, as price retraced, thus after 10 bars after the ZigZag arrow the potential trade doesn´t appear anymore, but the trade is just as valid as the first time if not even more because it held support twice nicely. With the ZigZag at 50, I get to trade this pair.

As you can see from my dashboard picture with the 50 look back, a lot more trades show up than with the 10 lookback.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD,H4.png Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Dashboard - ZigZag 50 look back.png Size: 19 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,482
  • Dec 22, 2017 7:51am Dec 22, 2017 7:51am
Quoting natla
{quote} Hi mrdfx, Your Post#1360 H4 StopLossAtZigzagArrow setting "true" but now you're saying this setting must be "false". I am using H4 Timeframe. Which setting must be on H4(StopLossAtZigzagArrow) ? Regards.
You misunderstand me. I said if the stop loss at zig zag arrow is false then the EA will use the hidden SL, I didn't say that i am using the hidden SL. All my tests are using the SL at zig zag arrow.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #1,483
  • Dec 22, 2017 7:51am Dec 22, 2017 7:51am
ebecker, you are the man! Thank you very much for the brand new dashboard and Alorente for sharing your indicator!
  • #1,484
  • Dec 22, 2017 7:55am Dec 22, 2017 7:55am
Maximum DD?
Working DD?
The maximum DD? Working DD?
  • #1,485
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:29am Dec 22, 2017 8:29am
Quoting ebeckers
And here's is v1.16 1.16 - fixed bug that mbfx showed invalid overbought signal for sell signals - fixed trendline sometimes not showing valid signal in the dashboard - added an sma200 trendline filter which you can turn on/off (see below) - You now open the chart for a pair by clicking on the label. You can even specify the template which should be used in the settings So new is is the SMA200 trend filter. The EA uses the D1 200 SMA with price close for this If you turn it on then the EA will only give signals and will only take trades when they...
nescentia necat
  • #1,486
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:43am Dec 22, 2017 8:43am
Hello guys, the EA seems to work well, but I still need to put the stop loss manually even with the stop loss box checked in the parameters. Anyone have this issue ?

One other thing, on my navigator window, I can see the expert file "SimpleDailyTrendReversal_v116a" with a grey dot next to it... usually it's supposed to be yellow to show it's working well.... anyone has an idea why ?

Thanks for your answers.... and congrats to mrdfx and ebeckers for this job.... very impressive
  • #1,487
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:53am Dec 22, 2017 8:53am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} I understand what you are saying, but please understand that the Forex market in general has been mostly ranging in the past year. Volatility has been near record lows during that time. Trend Reversal systems do very well with ranging markets. After all, a range is composed of many trend reversals. Forex ranges 70% of the time. It is the other 25% that we must worry about. The problem is that you don´t really know when the market will change to a trending one. When the Forex markets begin to do their thing and volatility picks up and strong...
Thanks for sharing your experience Alorente, i am a rookie ( 1 year of trading) and i am in permanent learning mode .
On which time frame and how you study if it is trend reversal time o trend time? Simply analyzing higher time frame of some pair or you use special instruments?
Great respect for the vet!!

Thanks

Paolo
  • #1,488
  • Dec 22, 2017 9:08am Dec 22, 2017 9:08am
i think there is some issues with the latest EA. Keep having the alert popping out.
  • #1,489
  • Dec 22, 2017 9:27am Dec 22, 2017 9:27am
Quoting paolo7
{quote} Thanks for sharing your experience Alorente, i am a rookie ( 1 year of trading) and i am in permanent learning mode . On which time frame and how you study if it is trend reversal time o trend time? Simply analyzing higher time frame of some pair or you use special instruments? Great respect for the vet!! Thanks Paolo
It is almost impossible to predict when volatility will pick up and the markets will start trending. Studying fundamentals allows you to suspect more or less when it will happen but you cannot be sure. For example, my studies tell me there is a very high likelihood for a huge dollar rally (20% to 30%) lasting 2 or 3 years, similar to the one we had in the 1980´s. If someone put a knife to my throat and forced me to say when it will start, I would say sometime between this January and next April, BUT, this is my estimate and it may be completely wrong. It is not possible to accurately predict the future.

Having said that, I am not entering any short USD positions going forward. In my view, the only currency that may stand its own against USD is GBT which due to the probably overblown Brexit scare, is quite undervalued. All others should get hit very hard in the next 2 or 3 years. This is the reason why I have mentioned that you need to be protected with a trend filter going forward.

Remember, this is a personal opinion, not a prediction.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,490
  • Dec 22, 2017 9:43am Dec 22, 2017 9:43am
Thanks a lot again ..have a nice weekend!!
p.
  • #1,491
  • Dec 22, 2017 9:44am Dec 22, 2017 9:44am
came across this tread today and find the strategy one of the best I know so far. I will work through from start to finish and am already excited about what I have learned. The next few days I have time to read in this tread and I am curious what I will learn everything.
i am only a small trader and am very grateful for this information.
heartfelt thanks and god blessings
mrdfx, Alorent and Ebecker, representatives for all who worked here.
I wish all participants in this tread a blessed Christmas and a happy new year.
  • #1,492
  • Dec 22, 2017 11:20am Dec 22, 2017 11:20am
Merry Christmass Everyone

it's been one hell of a month

which you all success and more pips to come

Enjoy your holiday
  • #1,493
  • Dec 22, 2017 12:31pm Dec 22, 2017 12:31pm
would be good if we could enable push notifications to mobile device with the EA
  • #1,494
  • Dec 22, 2017 12:39pm Dec 22, 2017 12:39pm
Quoting benjamintoh8
would be good if we could enable push notifications to mobile device with the EA
thats already working
  • #1,495
  • Edited Dec 23, 2017 9:31am Dec 22, 2017 12:46pm | Edited Dec 23, 2017 9:31am
Quoting ebeckers
{quote} thats already working
maybe I have missed something, but all I saw was email alerts and actual alerts from the desktop. what I meant was to leave the desktop running and then receiving push notifications ( not emails ) to my mt4 app on my phone while I am out. correct me if I'm wrong. cheers !

ok nvm, I managed to solve it. great thread ! gonna test it out cheers
  • #1,496
  • Dec 22, 2017 1:58pm Dec 22, 2017 1:58pm
Quoting QuincyJones
Hello guys, the EA seems to work well, but I still need to put the stop loss manually even with the stop loss box checked in the parameters. Anyone have this issue ? One other thing, on my navigator window, I can see the expert file "SimpleDailyTrendReversal_v116a" with a grey dot next to it... usually it's supposed to be yellow to show it's working well.... anyone has an idea why ? Thanks for your answers.... and congrats to mrdfx and ebeckers for this job.... very impressive
The SL is hidden by the EA so it will not show in your terminal window, and you don't need to enter it manually.

I'm not sure about any yellow dots, but on my version v1.16a it is grey and working perfectly.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #1,497
  • Dec 22, 2017 2:01pm Dec 22, 2017 2:01pm
Quoting Alorente
{quote} That is what I thought too with my Extreme TMA trend reversal system... I said: "A trend filter will not work because I will miss out on too many counter trend trades" I was wrong. In trading, the key to success is avoiding losses. For example, here is the USDJPY chart of the period between Nov. 8, 2016 and Dec 20, 2016. The pair went parabolic and advanced from 101 to 118 in 45 days. I have marked with Red arrows the Sell trades that would have been stopped out without a trend filter. Ouch! That is pure pain there... Those losses would...
I think this post shows that Alorente as a veteran trader is guiding us from falling into pit holes. This is definitely a post from the master.

I appreciate.
  • #1,498
  • Dec 22, 2017 2:04pm Dec 22, 2017 2:04pm
Good afternoon, close the operations open before the weekend or leave them open all weekend, thank you.
  • #1,499
  • Dec 22, 2017 2:22pm Dec 22, 2017 2:22pm
So its the end of the first week of testing the EA.

Just to recap for anyone who doesn't know yet, or hasn't been following;

"I created a new demo account on Monday to test the EA over a 1 month period and then judge overall results. This is also to test different time frames, as well as different settings, which will be more profitable overall. I am testing 2 time frames, H4 and D1 only. I did test lower time frames (M15, M30, H1) but they did not do very well, H4 and D1 performed much better so I will be sticking to these 2 time frames for this test. I am also testing whether using the TS settings is better, or leaving the TP at next new opposite Zig Zag Arrow for overall max profit, so there are duplicates on the TE as there are 2 charts trading H4, and 2 charts trading D1."

At the end of the first week we have some winners rising up, yes its still early days and a lot can change, and its also holiday time, and not the best time of the year to be trading, but hey, this makes it even more interesting.

- Account balance at start: $10000
- Account balance current: $11049
- Account growth in %: 10.7%
- Account growth in profit: $1068
- Account growth in pips: 1220

- In 1st place is the H4 chart using the TS settings, with a current total profit of $647.71, and 96.15% win rate.

- In 2nd place is the H4 chart using the next new opposite arrow as TP, with a current total profit of $232.79, and 62.5% win rate.

- In 3rd place is the D1 chart using the TS settings, with a current total profit of $162.80, and 100% win rate.

- In 4th place is the D1 chart using the next new opposite arrow as TP, with a current total profit of $5.74, and a 100% win rate.

So this week its clear that so far H4 is performing better than D1, and that the TS settings locked in more profit than leaving the TP for the next new opposite arrow.

A lot can still change and we will see the progress of the different time frames and settings, and which is more profitable overall. So far things are looking good, and its been a great first week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4 1.png Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: H4 2.png Size: 175 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: D1 1.png Size: 123 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: D1 2.png Size: 121 KB
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #1,500
  • Dec 22, 2017 2:38pm Dec 22, 2017 2:38pm
Quoting mrdfx
{quote} The SL is hidden by the EA so it will not show in your terminal window, and you don't need to enter it manually. I'm not sure about any yellow dots, but on my version v1.16a it is grey and working perfectly.
Ok, understood. Thanks for your answer and congrats again for your work. Happy holidays to everyone....
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