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  • #161
  • Dec 21, 2017 6:29am Dec 21, 2017 6:29am
Quoting AndyU
So this time we chose any random TS and ended up with some pairs that are at not ideal MML lines. I guess giving a little analysis to select pairs with better current locations on MML grid would put odds a little bit in our favor compared to totally random picking. There's a nice MML grid dashboard indicator to help with that. GBPCAD is extremely unlikely to be profitable, octave gap (=stop loss) is too small to pick exact turning point. Same thing I'm seeing with MML grid on EURAUD. At London open it will be 30 pips or more very quickly. {image}...
GBPCAD

Here is the progress on that trade you said would have little chance of success.
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An almost perfectly executed pending order ....

Not saying it will be an eventual winner (since I will be letting it run its course as much as possible) but I could close it out now for 2%.

And this was the pair I said was unlikely to be triggered today!

MML picked the turning point in the middle of almost no where!

Amazing trade.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #162
  • Dec 21, 2017 6:45am Dec 21, 2017 6:45am
AUDJPY

Loser trade

-1.1%
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GBPUSD

Loser trade

-1.0%
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AUDCAD

Loser trade

-1.2%
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GBPAUD

Loser Trade

-1.4%
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Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #163
  • Dec 21, 2017 6:54am Dec 21, 2017 6:54am
GBPCAD

Winner trade

+4.2%
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Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #164
  • Dec 21, 2017 7:13am Dec 21, 2017 7:13am
3 currently running trades will be allowed to run on.
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There is also 1 by AN pending order not yet triggered.

Range of possible outcomes is between -4% to +16%

Only 1 more clean winner required to be net positive on this TS Order 3-S5 setup.

Back tomorrow.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #165
  • Dec 21, 2017 7:47am Dec 21, 2017 7:47am
my totally random TS from 12.19 ended with 7.7% gain. CAD news could have gone either way on last trade (AUDCAD short), but it went to my TP. Initially got 5 losses and it started to look like a bad idea, but then 3 straight winners and nice numbers in the end.
  • #166
  • Dec 21, 2017 8:56am Dec 21, 2017 8:56am
Quoting AndyU
my totally random TS from 12.19 ended with 7.7% gain. CAD news could have gone either way on last trade (AUDCAD short), but it went to my TP. Initially got 5 losses and it started to look like a bad idea, but then 3 straight winners and nice numbers in the end.
The important is always the small details. If with 43% win ratio you get 2:1 profit you can guess how much you can get if you improve win ratio 20%. Honestly the MM base is very good and with much room for improve
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Try don't lose pants never...
  • #167
  • Dec 21, 2017 9:49am Dec 21, 2017 9:49am
for those of you interested in Murrey
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf The Murrey Math Trading System.pdf   142 KB | 553 downloads
  • #168
  • Dec 21, 2017 4:31pm Dec 21, 2017 4:31pm
EURGBP

Loser Trade

-1%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #169
  • Dec 21, 2017 4:47pm Dec 21, 2017 4:47pm
Quoting AndyU
my totally random TS from 12.19 ended with 7.7% gain. CAD news could have gone either way on last trade (AUDCAD short), but it went to my TP. Initially got 5 losses and it started to look like a bad idea, but then 3 straight winners and nice numbers in the end.
Provided your trading account remains sufficiently funded it is only reasonable to make judgments after a longer term period.

It is ok to make rolling comments as results unfold but not to lose sight of the bigger picture.

The MM of the MTTTM Strategy is extremely robust over plenty of data periods if you were to make an analysis.

Although its not preferable there are usually a few (or many) early losses at the start of a new TS Order cycle afterall price has further to travel to the TP than the SL.

One of the reasons why I have mentioned the win loss table.

The win loss table offers some comfort to the trader because it shows that only a minimal number of winning trades is needed to be ent positive.

So its almost a feeling of euphoria when the first winning trade is recorded because it carries such a powerful weighting that is it can erase 3 losers immediately and pump up the account equity by a full 1%.

It would be nice to achieve 1 to 3 winners in the early stages of the setup.

And there is a way of improving a traders chances that this occurs.

Simply trade higher time frames such as H1, H4 and D1 since the stops are typically wider offering a greater opportunity to ride through the small annoying PA's that go against your trade(s).

The MML Grid settings can be altered on an M15 Chart to produce much larger Octave Gaps.

But I'm starting the MTTTM Strategy with a generally good fit for most currency pairs on an M15 TF that typically yields good results.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #170
  • Dec 21, 2017 6:06pm Dec 21, 2017 6:06pm
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} The important is always the small details. If with 43% win ratio you get 2:1 profit you can guess how much you can get if you improve win ratio 20%. Honestly the MM base is very good and with much room for improve {image}
Great post !

There are several parameters that a trader can investigate.

Some of them are as follows:

1. The reward to risk ratio;

For the MTTTM Strategy this ratio will be fixed at 4 to 1 and I see no point in changing it.

2. Choice of SL distance;

The SL distance can certainly be played with since increasing it reduces the chances that the market will take you out thereby buying time.
Altering SL distance achieved by settings that increase Ocatve Gap of the MML Grid
Applying MML Grid to a much higher time frame with appropriate settings

3. Choice of TP distance;

The TP is heavily governed by the SL and simply 4 times the distance in pips, so the focus is on the SL
Although chart structure could be considered for projected TPs especially for very large TPs

4. Choice of Triangulated Order makeup;

Multiple combinations in terms of pairs, TS Order (#'s) and individual TS direction
Huge array of choices but getting the direction correct from the entry point could be made more difficult as the SL pips decrease

5. ADR relationship to the R:r and SL/TP;

How likely is the TP to be hit within a daily time period if preferred exit from the market is same day
If the TP is not hit the same day and trade runs over night consider lower volatility impact on trades progress for example when a trade opens in London session but remains active after NY close heading into a lower ranging Asian session.

6. Trading start time (random, at major opens, X_Hours before or after Major Open TO,LO,NY start time etc); and

7. Cycle turnover rate

Plenty to consider but at the end of the day its a matter of keeping the method as simple as it can be and only modifying those parameters that are seen to have the biggest impact.

Biggest impacting parameters in my view are:

(i) the applied stops,
(ii) R:r;
(iii) TS Order makeup

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #171
  • Dec 21, 2017 9:47pm Dec 21, 2017 9:47pm
Over 20 percent gain since 12/17/2017 with 5 more trades open(at the moment with $130 in profit for the lot)

Using MML extreme levels for buy and sell with 4 to 1 RR.
  • #172
  • Dec 21, 2017 10:27pm Dec 21, 2017 10:27pm
Quoting hibra68
Over 20 percent gain since 12/17/2017 with 5 more trades open(at the moment with $130 in profit for the lot) Using MML extreme levels for buy and sell with 4 to 1 RR.
Going well.

Great to hear the feedback and the update.

Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #173
  • Dec 22, 2017 4:19am Dec 22, 2017 4:19am
Quoting Masterrmind
{quote} Great post ! There are several parameters that a trader can investigate. Some of them are as follows: 1. The reward to risk ratio; For the MTTTM Strategy this ratio will be fixed at 4 to 1 and I see no point in changing it. 2. Choice of SL distance; The SL distance can certainly be played with since increasing it reduces the chances that the market will take you out thereby buying time. Altering SL distance achieved by settings that increase Ocatve Gap of the MML Grid Applying MML Grid to a much higher time frame with appropriate settings...
About fixed ratio its normal you dont see any point to change it because you developed this MM with a strategy using fixed distance levels. But im thinking how abstract MM rules for it can be used as generic in any strategy.

As many strategies not uses fixed levels then the trick is what entry/exit rules will have a TS. Im not talking about entry/exits in pairs ( that is irrelevant for MM area). Im taking about how first pair entry or exit affects rest of TS pairs because the critic moment is when TS is unbalanced. I think easy rules works better in average then I think put a time limit for create a full TS can be enough because its very difficult can get perfect entries in all pairs in that group.

Exits have their own history and needs much brainstorm work...
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #174
  • Dec 22, 2017 5:35am Dec 22, 2017 5:35am
I always sit up and take notice when you start a thread Masterrmind, TS 3 order closed out for the week, 5 losers and 4 winners,last winner closed early +9% gain over all, thank you Masterrmind !
  • #175
  • Dec 22, 2017 6:55am Dec 22, 2017 6:55am
Quoting braintheboss
{quote} About fixed ratio its normal you dont see any point to change it because you developed this MM with a strategy using fixed distance levels. But im thinking how abstract MM rules for it can be used as generic in any strategy. As many strategies not uses fixed levels then the trick is what entry/exit rules will have a TS. Im not talking about entry/exits in pairs ( that is irrelevant for MM area). Im taking about how first pair entry or exit affects rest of TS pairs because the critic moment is when TS is unbalanced. I think easy rules works...
Yes a little bit biased but I know it works at 4 to 1 so no point fixing what certainly isn't broken.

I'm only concerned about its application in the MTTTM Strategy.

Once the discussion has been opened up traders will see how it caters for multiple setups all the way from trading only 3 pairs at a time up to many.

Then it goes much further and will outline different TFs.

The idea here is to offer traders a basic guide that works and then expand into advanced methods for those willing to explore deeper options.

Its great to see the discussion and I welcome it.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #176
  • Dec 22, 2017 6:57am Dec 22, 2017 6:57am
Quoting nozzer
I always sit up and take notice when you start a thread Masterrmind, TS 3 order closed out for the week, 5 losers and 4 winners,last winner closed early +9% gain over all, thank you Masterrmind !
You are more than welcome Nozzer.

Post a chart whenever you can or from time to time.

Always nice to hear and see other traders results.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #177
  • Dec 22, 2017 7:04am Dec 22, 2017 7:04am
Update about current situation on the TS Order 3-S5

The NZDJPY long trade is the last one in progress and currently 3 pips in DD after being active for about a day and a half.

It will be closed out very soon but would be nice to close it out for a small gain but time will tell.

ps. AUDNZD pending order has just been deleted.

Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #178
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:14am Dec 22, 2017 8:14am
NZDJPY

Loser Trade

-0.1% (-$11.46)

Closed out prior to completion
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Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #179
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:30am Dec 22, 2017 8:30am
Not the most inspiring TS Order 3 for the second setup taken and very reluctantly traded on my part.

But the account still shows a positive gain of over 8% even after so many losers but gave back about 3%.
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Masterrmind...........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
  • #180
  • Dec 22, 2017 6:52pm Dec 22, 2017 6:52pm
Some additional observations about account progress

Trade Report (via TE analytics)
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After 2 TS Order 3's the strike rate is only 37.5% with TS Order 3-S5 producing the most losses.
Profit Factor is 1.77
Yet the return is very healthy at 8% after only 10 days of trading with very acceptable DD.

Trade Outcomes (via TE analytics)
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This chart is very useful because it shows how well the account is or is not being managed in terms of individual trade control.

Based on the fixed 4 to 1 Reward to risk ratio and an assigned risk per trade of 1% this means that an untouched completed trade will produce either a 1% loss or a 4% gain to the account.

TS Order 3-S1

Trades 7 and 8 were closed out manually prior to completion and given enough movement in price its possible to see how these trades outcomes might have changed if simply allowed to run their course.

Trade 7 Outcome (if allowed to run its course)
AUDCAD
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This trade was closed out for about a 0.9% gain

If allowed to run its course the result would have been a -1% loss.

Trade 8 Outcome (if allowed to run its course)
GBPCAD
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This trade was closed out for about a 1% gain

If allowed to run its course the result would have been a -1% loss.

TS Order 3-S5

Trade 16 Outcome (if allowed to run its course)
NZDJPY
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Risk Control

I have assigned a risk per trade of 1%.

This suggests that every losing trade should be not more than 1%.

In the 2nd TS Order 3-S5 there were 2 trades that breached this risk level.

Trade 12
GBPAUD
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The loss recorded on this trade was -1.3% so so extra care needs to be taken moving forward to ensure that risk is not greater than 1%.

Ofcourse due to negative slippage on exit its difficult to manage this sitaution perfectly but certainly the 1.3% figure is a little excessive here.

A few other trades recorded -1.1% losses which might be borderline acceptable but the emphasis must be on minimizing loss.

Moving forward I may adopt a technique that simply reduces the lot size applied per trade ever so slightly to keep under the assigned risk per trade.

A minor breach here and there of the assigned risk% per trade may not be critical but an accumulating effect could be devastating.

Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
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