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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #57,821
  • Edited 10:48pm Dec 9, 2017 10:37pm | Edited 10:48pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} I have absolutely no idea what you are waffling on about.
then maybe you need to read the thread closer, and btw, technical analysis never said it did not use fundamental analysis. it only said, fundamental factors will somehow find its way 1 way or another, at some time, to be creeped into the charts.

btw fundamental analysis is not a 1 factor thing, you have to factor multiple fundamentals especially from correlated markets to properly distill the information.

also, fundamentals can already be priced in, and thats where technical analysis helps, with the timing and helping you allude to if the move is over or not.

i cringe when people say they are purely technical traders or fundamental traders. there is only information and how you use them.

if you read the market wizards, so many discrepencies there, so many people who trade technically and fundamentally to anywhere in between, all successful in their own right, all have their value, only whether the trader is good enough to recognize the value of its use or not.
  • #57,822
  • Edited 8:26am Dec 10, 2017 3:06am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} I have absolutely no idea what you are waffling on about.
Hello EcoTrader,

Back to your basic idea and trader's mindset: "Its the exact opposite trading fundamentally. Every trade has a fundamental reason behind a move ..."

Apart from my Terrain and Flow reading skills (technical, fundamental, +market knowledge, +mindset, +MM)

1. Failures make us stronger (with wins they build my experience and skills);
2. I'm more confident when my scouts report to me so;
3. I'm yet more confident when I know how to manage my risks and contingencies.

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,823
  • Dec 10, 2017 8:07am Dec 10, 2017 8:07am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} then maybe you need to read the thread closer, and btw, technical analysis never said it did not use fundamental analysis. it only said, fundamental factors will somehow find its way 1 way or another, at some time, to be creeped into the charts. btw fundamental analysis is not a 1 factor thing, you have to factor multiple fundamentals especially from correlated markets to properly distill the information. also, fundamentals can already be priced in, and thats where technical analysis helps, with the timing and helping you allude to if the...
You'e preaching to a fundamental trader...
  • #57,824
  • Edited 11:35pm Dec 10, 2017 6:53pm | Edited 11:35pm
Quoting EcoTrader
{quote} You'e preaching to a fundamental trader...
Well it's up to you what you want to believe, but the facts are still there. Both works, it's how you use it, that's all.

If you trade in the pits, you can even trade based on how a person's face changes colour.

Getting into the mind of technical traders, once you know where they draw the line, you can pop their minds, and cause then to capitulate?

Same for fundamental guys, buy in anticipation of them move and sell to them? Called buy on rumour sell on news. Fundamentals hold but if there are no more buyers as everyone has bought whose going to push price higher?
  • #57,825
  • Dec 11, 2017 12:11am Dec 11, 2017 12:11am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Well it's up to you what you want to believe, but the facts are still there. Both works,
Hello CookieMonsta,

The folk must have their reason to come on TAF (as we also do).

This gentleman claims himself of a substantial background. This is a copy text from one of his posts "I have first hand experience at over a dozen major investment banks and hedge funds in a professional capacity. They not only use fundamentals , they additionally apply financial models to all their trading activity. The reality is the money that moves the markets operates off the back of fundamental analysis for the most part."

I humbly liked his haughty intervention and can also see some rational data input. What is more, I did appreciate your feedback.

It's always good to keep AoW in mind.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,826
  • Dec 11, 2017 12:29am Dec 11, 2017 12:29am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, The folk must have their reason to come on TAF (as we also do). This gentleman claims himself of a substantial background. This is a copy text from one of his posts "I have first hand experience at over a dozen major investment banks and hedge funds in a professional capacity. They not only use fundamentals , they additionally apply financial models to all their trading activity. The reality is the money that moves the markets operates off the back of fundamental analysis for the most part." I humbly liked his haughty...
Hi exnav,

Notice there nature of flows, what he indicated is fundamental flows, so he is on the fundamental side, short term traders like dealers, sense his orders and look to piggy back on it, what we see on the charts will be his buy orders, which is short term momentum.

That is the nature of flows, fundamentals from them come in as orders, technical indicate the timing of those orders hitting the markets, and we get in for the ride, as for if the market will go that far in the direction of the fundamentals, nobody knows, as it's in the future.

That's the reason why both fundamentals and technicals are information, to be used in their respective ways which each trader customized for his stay, for his style, for his risk tolerance parameters.
  • #57,827
  • Dec 11, 2017 12:49am Dec 11, 2017 12:49am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi exnav, Notice there nature of flows, what he indicated is fundamental flows, so he is on the fundamental side, short term traders like dealers, sense his orders and look to piggy back on it, what we see on the charts will be his buy orders,
Hello CookieMonsta,

I agree with your point. As well I could detect some liberty in his fundamental issue. E.g., "a level of confidence, ...off the back of fundamental analysis for the most part. "

Would we be of any absolute preference to ponder the following instance question: Who would you address (pure fundamental, technical analysis trader or a kind of trader) if you are just to close a big deal and in an urgent need to exchange some 100M number funds? Thus, there is another reference to his claim: "Every trade has a fundamental reason behind". There is a fundamental reason, so what for a retailer?

Best regards, Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,828
  • Dec 11, 2017 1:49am Dec 11, 2017 1:49am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, I agree with your point. As well I could detect some liberty in his fundamental issue. E.g., "a level of confidence, ...off the back of fundamental analysis for the most part. " Would we be of any absolute preference to ponder the following instance question: Who would you address (pure fundamental, technical analysis trader or a kind of trader) if you are just to close a big deal and in an urgent need to exchange some 100M number funds? Thus, there is another reference to his claim: "Every trade has a fundamental reason...
Hi exnav,

I guess what he says is only from his own position as a fundamental trader.

Ro3k requires one to be able to understand multiple view points and understand ones position in all these. E.g. if one is a dealer, someone like ecotrader asks for a quote on 100m, what would go on in his mind? Perhaps ecotrader know something, so he tries to do the volume, then see if he can gun some of the stops and get rid for a small profit then also go in line with ecotrader position direction.

That's how information spreads, from the hands of fundamental trader to a dealer, and when retail and other technically driven trader sees on charts, they also enter seeing the trend generated.

As for the above trade, they would highly likely be corp biz and hedgers, they do not really price in fundamentals, they are here to do business, that's all.
  • #57,829
  • Dec 11, 2017 2:27am Dec 11, 2017 2:27am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi exnav, I guess what he says is only from his own position as a fundamental trader. As for the above trade, they would highly likely be corp biz and hedgers, they do not really price in fundamentals, they are here to do business, that's all.
Hello CookieMonsta,

On the one hand, it's easy to speak a similar language. Probably thanks to FTI. On the other hand, it's also valuable to have discussion with TAF newcomers or passerby. For me, it's fine to debate with everyone of whatever individual peculiarity, pros & cons. We might look from the prospective to egoistically consume some new data and/or train AoW approach.

I have recently expressed a couple of times regarding teaching old dogs. Whatever my original background was, some decades ago opposite to the gantleman's institutional one I was dealing with currency exchange as a cash business. That time it had been a way to either directly exchange one currency to another for daily business needs, or exchange and hold so that to profit in a week, monthes and even years later on. Looking to that "trading" now, I would call it a sort of a purely fundamental trading. No any charts, just rates and economies, and cash. The utmost difference is that I never felt any sort of pain of failure and was ever in profit. Of course, exchange spreads and commissions were applicable. The same is possible nowadays.

I know, it's not a case for your (and mine) intraday trading, nor it might look attractive for a marginal leveraged FX. We may like charts as well as to be swift and reactive.

So, we are back to our earlier concerted idea. Whatever way (MO/ MM, etc.) we trade, it's fine if in green.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,830
  • Edited 5:01am Dec 11, 2017 2:33am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, On the one hand, it's easy to speak a similar language. Probably thanks to FTI. On the other hand, it's also valuable to have discussion with TAF newcomers or passerby. For me, it's fine to debate with everyone of whatever individual peculiarity, pros & cons. We might look from the prospective to egoistically consume some new data and/or train AoW approach. I have recently expressed a couple of times regarding teaching old dogs. Whatever my original background was, some decades ago opposite to the gantleman's institutional...
Hi exnav,

Yes as long as green, that's all that matters.

Well, the above is the market structure, so my point was, it's all just information and mo mm, it's really the traders strategic thinking which allows him to be profitable. Doesn't matter if it's fundamental or technical or both.

This also essentially prove the strong form efficient market hypothesis to be wrong too, in which there exist a time discrepancy in which information is transferred from 1 participant to the next until everyone is aware of what happened.
  • #57,831
  • Dec 19, 2017 7:08pm Dec 19, 2017 7:08pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} Hi exnav, Notice there nature of flows, what he indicated is fundamental flows, so he is on the fundamental side, short term traders like dealers, sense his orders and look to piggy back on it, what we see on the charts will be his buy orders, which is short term momentum. That is the nature of flows, fundamentals from them come in as orders, technical indicate the timing of those orders hitting the markets, and we get in for the ride, as for if the market will go that far in the direction of the fundamentals, nobody knows, as it's in the...
in any case, this is covered in the front part of the thread, under market structure.
  • #57,832
  • Dec 20, 2017 1:39am Dec 20, 2017 1:39am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} in any case, this is covered in the front part of the thread, under market structure.
Hello CookieMonsta,

You're correct, to the point. For humble, honest and inquiring seekers.

I would re-read and realize each concept of the below quote by FTI (Post No. 25877):
"All the things discussed in the begining of the thread you must internalise to crystalise your mindset for you carry you forward. All these sound very simple, and it is, but if mindset is wrong or disturbed , damage can be castastropic. So never risk what you cannot afford to lose in markets."

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #57,833
  • Dec 20, 2017 2:28am Dec 20, 2017 2:28am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello CookieMonsta, You're correct, to the point. For humble, honest and inquiring seekers. I would re-read and realize each concept of the below quote by FTI (Post No. 25877): "All the things discussed in the begining of the thread you must internalise to crystalise your mindset for you carry you forward. All these sound very simple, and it is, but if mindset is wrong or disturbed , damage can be castastropic. So never risk what you cannot afford to lose in markets." Best regards, Exnav
Hi exnav, the one who stands outside and considers all players can profile all players, and hence can choose who is weaker and stronger now to follow as well as attack.thats the unique position allowed to us retail traders who do not need to follow dealers mandate to take opposite side of market and hedge fund traders who have portfolio mandates.
  • #57,834
  • Dec 20, 2017 2:54am Dec 20, 2017 2:54am
Merry Christmas to all TAF peeps wherever they may be and Happy Trading New Year to all.

God bless FTI.


Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #57,835
  • Dec 20, 2017 6:15am Dec 20, 2017 6:15am
So happy to see TAF still going strong. Merry Christmas and best wishes for 2018 to all.
Attached Image
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #57,836
  • Dec 21, 2017 2:10am Dec 21, 2017 2:10am
Hi DutchAngel

good to see you here again, hope you are well and best wishes my friend.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #57,837
  • Dec 21, 2017 8:17am Dec 21, 2017 8:17am
Merry Christmas to FTI and all the traders who journey through here. God blesses and prosperity to all.
  • #57,838
  • Dec 21, 2017 9:38am Dec 21, 2017 9:38am
Hello you guys,

Good to see you all again.
Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year to all!
God bless and Good Fortune!

Regards
Ray
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,839
  • Dec 21, 2017 9:39am Dec 21, 2017 9:39am
Quoting zoomzoom
Merry Christmas to FTI and all the traders who journey through here. God blesses and prosperity to all.
Hi ZoomZoom

Good to see you again, are you still taking the kefir? How long since you started?
I would like to thank for you introducing them here, mainly to FTI, but while reading the thread I went to got myself some too and have been cultivating the grains for a good 9 months now. So thank you!

Regards
Ray
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #57,840
  • Dec 22, 2017 8:16am Dec 22, 2017 8:16am
Sorry guys, this is off topic.
Hi Ray,
I took it religiously for 4 yrs. Stopped since last yr. It already reset my stomach and my general health has improved tremendously. Only 1 minor disadvantage, I just couldn't loose weight, due to the richness of kifir. May be I was consuming too much. Anyway, I have now switched over to drinking home made soda, to replenish the good bacteria in the stomach. Just google it if you're interested. The method I used starts off with ginger and sugar to create the ginger bug (fermentation), then just add any fruit juice and wait 3 to 5 days to culture the good bacteria. Too long it turns into alcohol. The drink is really delicious.
By the way, I also started drinking distilled water, since 9 mths ago. It's supposed to be a slow cleanser, to get rid of all the toxin in the body. Read "Water the Shocking Truth" by Dr. Bragg. You could download the pdf version, or buy it from Amazon.
"Pure water is the best drink for a wise man" Henry Thoreau. If done right, we should live to 120yrs, long enough to reap the benefits of learning forex, which for me, a slow learner, will take many yrs to master.
To your health, wealth and happiness,
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
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